{"meta":{"updated":"2026-11-03","measures":146,"states":39,"sims":2000,"method":"On Point 2026 ballot measure forecast: every statewide measure on the Nov 3, 2026 ballot, county by county.\n\nStructure     Each measure is put in a policy group (abortion, marijuana, minimum wage, voter ID, citizen only voting,\n              taxes, criminal justice and so on) and given the side its Yes vote leans to. A measure's Yes share across\n              the states moves with partisanship by a group slope fitted to how measures in that group have run since\n              2018, from a group base level, adjusted for how the measure got on the ballot: legislative referrals and\n              bonds run ahead, citizen initiatives behind.\nCounties      Inside the state each county moves off the statewide Yes share by its 2024 presidential lean times the\n              group's county slope, measured on the 2018, 2022 and 2024 statewide measures in the MIT Election Lab\n              precinct returns, and the counties are weighted by their projected 2026 turnout.\nEnvironment   The state's lean is its 2024 presidential vote moved 60 percent of the way to the 2026 House environment\n              of the On Point forecast, since measures move with the party tide less than candidates do.\nPolls         Each poll's undecided voters break two to one for No, the usual late slide on ballot measures, and polls\n              paid for by one side are moved four points toward the other. Polls count by recency and sample size and\n              are blended with the structural prior by their precision, with a floor for the large errors ballot\n              measure polls have shown.\nPassing       The odds are the chance of clearing each state's own bar: 60 percent in Florida, 55 percent for\n              Colorado amendments, two thirds in New Hampshire, and a majority of all ballots cast where the state\n              counts a blank as a No, with the usual 6 percent of voters skipping the question.\nSimulation    2,000 draws of the statewide Yes share around the blend."},"measures":[{"id":"bm-ID-advisory-question","st":"ID","slug":"advisory-question","label":"Advisory Question","title":"Advisory vote on official state gun","summary":"Nonbinding question asking voters which of six firearms, such as the Winchester Model 1894 or Colt M1911, the Legislature should name the official state gun.","type":"other","category":"guns","group":"guns","lean":"none","campaign":"Placed by HB 932, which passed 68 to 0 and 32 to 0 and was signed by Gov. Brad Little R; no campaign reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Advisory and nonbinding; voters pick one of six options and the Legislature must pass a law afterward.","est":{"yes":50.0,"p10":36.0,"p90":63.0,"prob":0.49},"prior":50.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_ballot_measures","https://idahocapitalsun.com/voter-guides/ballot-measures/advisory-question/"],"counties":{"16001":51.9,"16003":47.7,"16005":49.8,"16007":47.9,"16009":47.6,"16011":48.4,"16013":52.9,"16015":49.3,"16017":49.0,"16019":50.3,"16021":48.1,"16023":47.1,"16025":49.8,"16027":48.8,"16029":47.3,"16031":48.5,"16033":48.8,"16035":47.1,"16037":49.0,"16039":48.6,"16041":48.5,"16043":48.5,"16045":47.8,"16047":47.5,"16049":47.8,"16051":49.2,"16053":47.4,"16055":49.3,"16057":51.8,"16059":48.0,"16061":47.7,"16063":46.7,"16065":52.0,"16067":47.6,"16069":49.0,"16071":48.7,"16073":46.8,"16075":47.5,"16077":47.6,"16079":46.5,"16081":53.2,"16083":48.7,"16085":50.8,"16087":47.8},"votes":{"yes":341091,"no":341092,"total":682183}},{"id":"bm-IA-amendment-1","st":"IA","slug":"amendment-1","label":"Amendment 1","title":"Two-thirds legislative vote to raise income taxes","summary":"Requires a two-thirds vote of both chambers of the Iowa General Assembly to raise individual or corporate income tax rates or to create a new tax on income.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_income","group":"taxes_income","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes: Iowans for Tax Relief and GOP legislators. No: Fair Taxes for Iowa's Future coalition (Common Good Iowa, Iowa State Education Association, labor). No dollar figures reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of those voting on the amendment. Passed GA twice (HJR 2006 in 2024, SJR 11 in 2025-26) on party-line votes.","est":{"yes":52.5,"p10":45.1,"p90":59.7,"prob":0.669},"prior":65.2,"pollAvg":46.5,"pollWeight":0.72,"polls":[{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-01","end":"2026-10-04","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":39.6,"no":36.0,"und":24.0,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/10_7_2026_iowa_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":47.8},{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center","sponsor":null,"side":"independent","start":"2026-08-20","end":"2026-08-23","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":33,"no":36,"und":30,"url":"https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/?p=59330","adj":43.4}],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/05/iowa-voters-will-decide-a-constitutional-amendment-that-would-require-two-thirds-approval-from-the-general-assembly-to-increase-income-taxes/","https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/?p=59330","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/424739","https://www.kcrg.com/2026/09/09/coalition-launches-campaign-opposing-constitutional-amendment-taxes/","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/428148"],"counties":{"19001":61.6,"19003":60.9,"19005":58.6,"19007":62.0,"19009":59.9,"19011":57.8,"19013":49.2,"19015":54.8,"19017":54.3,"19019":56.8,"19021":57.6,"19023":61.6,"19025":61.9,"19027":60.3,"19029":60.3,"19031":55.3,"19033":53.1,"19035":61.6,"19037":59.4,"19039":60.9,"19041":60.4,"19043":59.4,"19045":54.7,"19047":60.9,"19049":48.6,"19051":64.3,"19053":61.9,"19055":59.8,"19057":53.8,"19059":59.6,"19061":51.3,"19063":61.5,"19065":57.8,"19067":56.9,"19069":60.6,"19071":61.4,"19073":58.4,"19075":60.0,"19077":59.3,"19079":58.2,"19081":62.2,"19083":59.6,"19085":60.4,"19087":58.7,"19089":58.1,"19091":62.9,"19093":63.8,"19095":56.6,"19097":58.3,"19099":56.9,"19101":50.7,"19103":38.3,"19105":56.5,"19107":63.6,"19109":61.3,"19111":57.0,"19113":46.9,"19115":60.6,"19117":62.7,"19119":69.1,"19121":58.9,"19123":62.8,"19125":58.5,"19127":53.7,"19129":58.9,"19131":57.6,"19133":61.8,"19135":62.8,"19137":60.0,"19139":53.5,"19141":65.9,"19143":67.6,"19145":60.9,"19147":61.6,"19149":63.8,"19151":64.3,"19153":45.9,"19155":54.7,"19157":53.9,"19159":63.0,"19161":63.2,"19163":49.9,"19165":60.7,"19167":68.7,"19169":44.9,"19171":56.8,"19173":64.8,"19175":58.9,"19177":64.7,"19179":57.8,"19181":54.0,"19183":55.6,"19185":65.4,"19187":57.7,"19189":57.3,"19191":51.9,"19193":55.1,"19195":57.3,"19197":59.0},"votes":{"yes":677122,"no":611728,"total":1288850}},{"id":"bm-IN-public-question-1","st":"IN","slug":"public-question-1","label":"Public Question #1","title":"Allow judges to deny bail to dangerous defendants","summary":"Amends Article 1, Section 17 so courts may deny bail to people charged with offenses other than murder or treason when proof is evident and the state shows by clear and convincing evidence that no release conditions can protect the community.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"criminal_justice","group":"criminal_justice","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes: Sen. Eric Koch and Rep. Chris Jeter, Republican legislative leadership. No: legislative Democrats and civil liberties critics; no organized campaign or money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Majority of voters on the question. SJR 1 first passed 2023, second passage Feb 2026 (House 75-11).","est":{"yes":76.0,"p10":64.4,"p90":83.9,"prob":0.9945},"prior":76.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/02/17/indiana-bail-amendment-clears-general-assembly-sending-detention-question-to-november-ballot/","https://www.fox19.com/2026/10/07/election-2026-explaining-kentucky-indianas-ballot-measures/","https://www.in.gov/counties/noble/files/2026-general-election-sample-balllots/P6.pdf","https://www.in.gov/counties/cass/files/3_Clay_English.pdf"],"counties":{"18001":82.9,"18003":75.0,"18005":78.5,"18007":81.9,"18009":82.5,"18011":76.3,"18013":79.6,"18015":82.7,"18017":81.7,"18019":76.8,"18021":83.5,"18023":82.1,"18025":82.3,"18027":84.7,"18029":83.7,"18031":83.8,"18033":81.9,"18035":76.5,"18037":81.1,"18039":79.1,"18041":83.3,"18043":76.3,"18045":84.1,"18047":84.8,"18049":82.6,"18051":82.4,"18053":80.6,"18055":83.0,"18057":74.4,"18059":79.2,"18061":81.8,"18063":76.6,"18065":81.7,"18067":79.2,"18069":82.1,"18071":83.1,"18073":83.0,"18075":83.3,"18077":80.2,"18079":83.9,"18081":79.4,"18083":82.3,"18085":82.6,"18087":83.6,"18089":70.3,"18091":75.5,"18093":82.5,"18095":78.0,"18097":65.4,"18099":81.3,"18101":84.2,"18103":82.7,"18105":67.6,"18107":82.0,"18109":83.0,"18111":83.4,"18113":82.6,"18115":83.3,"18117":82.6,"18119":82.4,"18121":83.4,"18123":79.0,"18125":83.1,"18127":75.7,"18129":81.2,"18131":83.0,"18133":82.3,"18135":83.0,"18137":84.2,"18139":83.0,"18141":72.6,"18143":82.7,"18145":82.0,"18147":81.3,"18149":82.7,"18151":81.0,"18153":82.4,"18155":83.7,"18157":73.7,"18159":82.3,"18161":83.3,"18163":75.5,"18165":81.5,"18167":76.6,"18169":82.4,"18171":83.6,"18173":79.0,"18175":83.2,"18177":79.2,"18179":83.6,"18181":81.6,"18183":82.3},"votes":{"yes":1320915,"no":416486,"total":1737401}},{"id":"bm-IN-public-question-2","st":"IN","slug":"public-question-2","label":"Public Question #2","title":"Let city or town judges live in adjacent county","summary":"Amends Article 6, Section 6 so a city or town court judge may reside in the county where the court sits or in the nearest bordering county.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"none","campaign":"No organized campaigns reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Majority of voters on the question.","est":{"yes":63.4,"p10":50.5,"p90":75.2,"prob":0.908},"prior":63.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.fox19.com/2026/10/07/election-2026-explaining-kentucky-indianas-ballot-measures/","https://www.in.gov/counties/noble/files/2026-general-election-sample-balllots/P6.pdf","https://www.in.gov/counties/cass/files/3_Clay_English.pdf"],"counties":{"18001":60.5,"18003":63.7,"18005":64.3,"18007":61.3,"18009":60.1,"18011":67.8,"18013":62.6,"18015":60.7,"18017":60.5,"18019":62.9,"18021":61.4,"18023":60.5,"18025":59.4,"18027":60.5,"18029":62.4,"18031":61.3,"18033":61.3,"18035":62.6,"18037":62.5,"18039":61.3,"18041":60.4,"18043":64.0,"18045":60.1,"18047":61.2,"18049":60.6,"18051":61.0,"18053":61.4,"18055":60.5,"18057":69.8,"18059":64.4,"18061":61.7,"18063":65.4,"18065":60.7,"18067":61.5,"18069":61.6,"18071":61.3,"18073":61.1,"18075":59.9,"18077":61.2,"18079":60.2,"18081":64.4,"18083":61.1,"18085":62.4,"18087":59.5,"18089":62.5,"18091":61.9,"18093":61.4,"18095":61.4,"18097":64.4,"18099":61.5,"18101":59.9,"18103":60.4,"18105":67.4,"18107":61.4,"18109":61.5,"18111":60.3,"18113":61.0,"18115":60.8,"18117":60.4,"18119":60.6,"18121":60.3,"18123":60.6,"18125":60.4,"18127":63.6,"18129":62.4,"18131":60.0,"18133":61.3,"18135":60.2,"18137":61.4,"18139":61.0,"18141":64.1,"18143":59.7,"18145":61.7,"18147":61.7,"18149":59.7,"18151":62.5,"18153":60.1,"18155":58.9,"18157":65.6,"18159":62.0,"18161":60.9,"18163":62.9,"18165":60.8,"18167":62.6,"18169":61.9,"18171":60.8,"18173":64.5,"18175":60.1,"18177":61.4,"18179":61.3,"18181":61.1,"18183":62.1},"votes":{"yes":1101750,"no":635661,"total":1737411}},{"id":"bm-KS-constitutional-amendment-no-1","st":"KS","slug":"constitutional-amendment-no-1","label":"Constitutional Amendment No. 1","title":"Only U.S. citizens may vote","summary":"Amends the voter qualifications section of the Kansas Constitution to state that only U.S. citizens are eligible to vote in Kansas; citizenship is already required by state law.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"citizen_voting","lean":"R","campaign":"Placed by GOP legislature; no organized campaigns or spending reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. Referred by HCR 5004 (2025).","est":{"yes":82.7,"p10":73.4,"p90":89.1,"prob":1.0},"prior":82.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.stantoncountyks.com/elections/page/2026-general-election","https://www.kctv5.com/2026/09/28/kansas-voter-guide-what-you-need-know-november-elections/","https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2026-09-15/missouri-kansas-election-guide-2026-voting-registration","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/03/27/kansas-voters-will-decide-on-citizenship-voting-requirement-amendment-in-2026-similar-measures-were-approved-in-eight-states-in-2024/","https://sos.ks.gov/publications/sessionlaws/2025/Chapter-136-HCR-5004.html"],"counties":{"20001":90.2,"20003":92.7,"20005":88.8,"20007":94.2,"20009":91.6,"20011":91.4,"20013":90.5,"20015":88.8,"20017":90.4,"20019":94.2,"20021":91.4,"20023":93.8,"20025":94.2,"20027":91.6,"20029":92.5,"20031":91.8,"20033":93.9,"20035":88.8,"20037":85.8,"20039":93.7,"20041":91.5,"20043":93.0,"20045":67.8,"20047":92.8,"20049":94.0,"20051":89.3,"20053":91.0,"20055":86.2,"20057":86.6,"20059":89.1,"20061":84.4,"20063":95.1,"20065":93.2,"20067":91.4,"20069":93.5,"20071":94.0,"20073":92.5,"20075":92.5,"20077":93.0,"20079":85.0,"20081":92.5,"20083":93.9,"20085":89.6,"20087":88.6,"20089":95.1,"20091":76.4,"20093":93.2,"20095":92.3,"20097":94.0,"20099":88.9,"20101":94.0,"20103":85.1,"20105":93.1,"20107":93.1,"20109":94.2,"20111":83.4,"20113":88.7,"20115":90.3,"20117":90.9,"20119":93.4,"20121":88.6,"20123":93.1,"20125":90.9,"20127":89.8,"20129":94.4,"20131":93.3,"20133":90.4,"20135":95.4,"20137":93.6,"20139":90.6,"20141":93.8,"20143":93.3,"20145":91.0,"20147":94.7,"20149":89.6,"20151":90.7,"20153":94.5,"20155":88.2,"20157":93.4,"20159":91.5,"20161":78.6,"20163":94.2,"20165":93.2,"20167":92.7,"20169":87.0,"20171":94.4,"20173":83.2,"20175":86.8,"20177":80.3,"20179":95.6,"20181":93.6,"20183":93.7,"20185":92.7,"20187":91.9,"20189":94.3,"20191":90.6,"20193":92.8,"20195":94.0,"20197":90.5,"20199":96.4,"20201":93.7,"20203":94.2,"20205":92.8,"20207":92.5,"20209":73.9},"votes":{"yes":891109,"no":185764,"total":1076873}},{"id":"bm-MI-proposal-1","st":"MI","slug":"proposal-1","label":"Proposal 1","title":"Call a state constitutional convention","summary":"A Yes vote calls a convention to revise the Michigan Constitution, with 148 delegates elected in partisan races by state House and Senate district; any new constitution would go back to voters.","type":"other","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"none","campaign":"No: bipartisan Protect MI Constitution From Special Interests coalition (ACLU of Michigan, Michigan Chamber, Michigan AFL-CIO, MEA, Working Families Party; Detroit Regional Chamber also opposed). No organized Yes campaign or spending reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. Automatic question every 16 years (Art. XII Sec. 3); rejected in 1978, 1994, 2010 (67% No in 2010).","est":{"yes":47.8,"p10":40.7,"p90":54.6,"prob":0.324},"prior":58.7,"pollAvg":43.9,"pollWeight":1.08,"polls":[{"pollster":"Glengariff Group for WDIV and The Detroit News","sponsor":"WDIV and The Detroit News","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-22","n":600,"pop":"LV","yes":34.4,"no":48.5,"und":17.1,"url":"https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2026/10/28/nearly-half-of-michigan-voters-oppose-proposal-1-on-general-election-ballot-poll-finds/","adj":40.1},{"pollster":"Glengariff Group","sponsor":"The Detroit News / WDIV-TV","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-31","end":"2026-09-03","n":600,"pop":"LV","yes":47,"no":31,"und":22,"url":"https://www.dailygazette.com/tribune/michigan-voters-back-con-con-money-out-of-politics-ballot-proposals-poll-finds/article_8e576c98-d745-5b0b-9e32-d22d21a7e7cf.html","adj":54.3}],"sources":["https://www.michiganpublic.org/politics-government/2026-09-04/michigans-november-2026-ballot-is-official-includes-two-questions-for-all-voters","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/michigan/constitutional-convention-question","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/427567","https://www.detroitchamber.com/detroit-regional-chamber-opposes-constitutional-convention-joins-no-coalition/","https://www.dailygazette.com/tribune/michigan-voters-back-con-con-money-out-of-politics-ballot-proposals-poll-finds/article_8e576c98-d745-5b0b-9e32-d22d21a7e7cf.html"],"counties":{"26001":45.3,"26003":45.6,"26005":46.8,"26007":45.2,"26009":47.5,"26011":44.7,"26013":44.8,"26015":46.4,"26017":45.9,"26019":47.9,"26021":47.3,"26023":45.2,"26025":46.2,"26027":45.8,"26029":47.7,"26031":46.0,"26033":46.3,"26035":44.3,"26037":48.0,"26039":45.3,"26041":45.5,"26043":46.3,"26045":47.3,"26047":48.8,"26049":46.2,"26051":44.8,"26053":45.8,"26055":48.7,"26057":45.6,"26059":45.7,"26061":48.4,"26063":45.1,"26065":49.3,"26067":45.6,"26069":45.1,"26071":45.6,"26073":47.9,"26075":46.3,"26077":49.2,"26079":45.3,"26081":49.3,"26083":48.1,"26085":44.3,"26087":45.6,"26089":50.0,"26091":46.1,"26093":48.6,"26095":45.3,"26097":46.1,"26099":46.9,"26101":46.2,"26103":48.4,"26105":46.5,"26107":46.0,"26109":45.2,"26111":48.2,"26113":45.2,"26115":46.1,"26117":45.1,"26119":44.4,"26121":46.0,"26123":45.3,"26125":50.5,"26127":45.8,"26129":44.9,"26131":44.9,"26133":44.9,"26135":44.5,"26137":46.4,"26139":48.8,"26141":45.3,"26143":45.2,"26145":46.4,"26147":45.6,"26149":45.2,"26151":44.9,"26153":45.5,"26155":45.6,"26157":44.9,"26159":46.2,"26161":51.8,"26163":47.2,"26165":45.8},"votes":{"yes":2225841,"no":2432382,"total":4658223}},{"id":"bm-MI-proposal-2","st":"MI","slug":"proposal-2","label":"Proposal 2","title":"Ban political donations from utilities and big contractors","summary":"Bars regulated gas and electric utilities and companies with over $250,000 in state contracts, plus people tied to them, from making political contributions, and expands disclosure for candidate ads.","type":"initiated statute","category":"government_ethics","group":"government_ethics","lean":"D","campaign":"Yes: Michiganders for Money Out of Politics, $7.4M raised incl. $5.4M from All Hands on Deck; backed by all four Democratic statewide nominees. No: Protect MI Free Speech, about $579K from DTE and CMS affiliates and BCBS of Michigan (late July reports).","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. Indirect initiated statute; Legislature did not act by Sept. 5, so it went to the ballot; survived a Michigan Supreme Court challenge.","est":{"yes":74.6,"p10":69.7,"p90":79.1,"prob":1.0},"prior":64.5,"pollAvg":77.2,"pollWeight":1.48,"polls":[{"pollster":"Glengariff Group","sponsor":"The Detroit News / WDIV-TV","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-22","n":600,"pop":"LV","yes":74,"no":17,"und":9,"url":"https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/money-politics-plan-still-high-160218105.html","adj":77.0},{"pollster":"Public Policy Polling","sponsor":"Progress Michigan","side":"yes","start":"2026-10-01","end":"2026-10-02","n":961,"pop":null,"yes":79,"no":10,"und":11,"url":"https://progressmichigan.org/2026/10/new-poll-proposal-2-support-stays-strong/","adj":78.7},{"pollster":"Glengariff Group","sponsor":"The Detroit News / WDIV-TV","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-31","end":"2026-09-03","n":600,"pop":"LV","yes":71.5,"no":16,"und":13,"url":"https://www.dailygazette.com/tribune/michigan-voters-back-con-con-money-out-of-politics-ballot-proposals-poll-finds/article_8e576c98-d745-5b0b-9e32-d22d21a7e7cf.html","adj":75.5},{"pollster":"Not named","sponsor":"Progress Michigan","side":"yes","start":"2026-05-01","end":"2026-05-31","n":null,"pop":null,"yes":null,"no":null,"und":null,"url":"https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/20/michiganders-for-money-out-of-politics-faces-final-hurdles-lawsuit-legislature/","adj":null}],"sources":["https://www.michiganpublic.org/politics-government/2026-09-04/michigans-november-2026-ballot-is-official-includes-two-questions-for-all-voters","https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/20/michiganders-for-money-out-of-politics-faces-final-hurdles-lawsuit-legislature/","https://planetdetroit.org/2026/06/lawmakers-pledge-reject-dte-consumers-money/","https://votersnotpoliticians.com/this-is-what-democracy-looks-like-fighting-corruption-builds-a-big-bipartisan-tent/","https://www.dailygazette.com/tribune/michigan-voters-back-con-con-money-out-of-politics-ballot-proposals-poll-finds/article_8e576c98-d745-5b0b-9e32-d22d21a7e7cf.html"],"counties":{"26001":70.1,"26003":72.4,"26005":70.7,"26007":71.5,"26009":71.7,"26011":70.0,"26013":71.1,"26015":70.0,"26017":73.8,"26019":73.4,"26021":74.1,"26023":69.1,"26025":73.5,"26027":70.4,"26029":72.4,"26031":71.1,"26033":71.2,"26035":70.5,"26037":72.8,"26039":70.8,"26041":71.2,"26043":70.1,"26045":73.6,"26047":72.8,"26049":75.4,"26051":70.0,"26053":73.1,"26055":73.7,"26057":70.3,"26059":67.6,"26061":71.8,"26063":69.9,"26065":77.5,"26067":70.2,"26069":71.5,"26071":71.7,"26073":72.7,"26075":72.7,"26077":76.3,"26079":69.0,"26081":76.4,"26083":73.2,"26085":71.0,"26087":69.3,"26089":75.1,"26091":71.6,"26093":71.9,"26095":68.3,"26097":71.6,"26099":73.3,"26101":72.9,"26103":74.9,"26105":72.1,"26107":70.7,"26109":71.0,"26111":73.2,"26113":66.8,"26115":72.1,"26117":69.5,"26119":69.5,"26121":74.9,"26123":69.0,"26125":75.2,"26127":70.8,"26129":69.8,"26131":71.9,"26133":68.4,"26135":69.6,"26137":70.0,"26139":72.1,"26141":71.8,"26143":71.3,"26145":74.6,"26147":71.2,"26149":70.3,"26151":68.6,"26153":71.1,"26155":71.7,"26157":69.2,"26159":73.6,"26161":78.8,"26163":79.0,"26165":70.2},"votes":{"yes":3473082,"no":1185139,"total":4658221}},{"id":"bm-MN-constitutional-amendment-1","st":"MN","slug":"constitutional-amendment-1","label":"Constitutional Amendment 1","title":"Permanent School Fund payouts to school districts","summary":"Replaces the requirement that Permanent School Fund principal stay perpetual and inviolate with a duty to preserve its purchasing power, letting companion law distribute 4.5% of the fund's three-year average value to districts each year, effective July 1, 2027.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"education","group":"education","lean":"none","campaign":"Sponsors Sen. Mary Kunesh (DFL) and Rep. Spencer Igo (R); House 134-0 (some sources 133-0), Senate 43-24 party line; education coalition incl. Education Minnesota backs it; no organized opposition or money reported.","threshold":0.5319,"thresholdNote":"a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No","ruleNote":"Must win a majority of ALL ballots cast in the election; blank votes count as No. Ballot label number not confirmed.","est":{"yes":65.0,"p10":51.9,"p90":76.2,"prob":0.8785},"prior":65.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/19/minnesota-voters-to-decide-on-a-constitutional-amendment-that-would-allow-more-state-funds-to-be-distributed-to-school-districts-each-year/","https://www.sspps.org/about/elections/mn-psf-amendment","https://www.fox9.com/news/mn-constitutional-amendment-vote-educators-aims-increase-permanent-school-fund-aug-2026.amp"],"counties":{"27001":56.6,"27003":66.2,"27005":57.8,"27007":62.2,"27009":58.0,"27011":57.6,"27013":64.0,"27015":57.5,"27017":60.9,"27019":63.2,"27021":57.3,"27023":57.0,"27025":57.8,"27027":63.7,"27029":55.0,"27031":66.2,"27033":56.8,"27035":58.0,"27037":64.6,"27039":58.5,"27041":57.7,"27043":56.6,"27045":58.1,"27047":58.1,"27049":59.6,"27051":57.2,"27053":72.8,"27055":59.6,"27057":58.0,"27059":56.3,"27061":58.8,"27063":56.4,"27065":55.3,"27067":58.4,"27069":58.7,"27071":57.7,"27073":57.1,"27075":61.0,"27077":55.6,"27079":57.7,"27081":56.8,"27083":58.9,"27085":56.6,"27087":59.5,"27089":54.4,"27091":56.5,"27093":55.9,"27095":55.9,"27097":53.9,"27099":60.2,"27101":56.0,"27103":63.0,"27105":57.2,"27107":58.4,"27109":64.9,"27111":57.6,"27113":57.6,"27115":56.3,"27117":55.4,"27119":58.0,"27121":57.3,"27123":72.4,"27125":56.1,"27127":56.1,"27129":55.8,"27131":62.4,"27133":57.1,"27135":55.2,"27137":63.8,"27139":62.5,"27141":58.3,"27143":55.9,"27145":59.9,"27147":58.9,"27149":60.4,"27151":57.5,"27153":54.0,"27155":56.8,"27157":58.0,"27159":54.8,"27161":57.5,"27163":64.4,"27165":57.6,"27167":56.6,"27169":62.8,"27171":59.2,"27173":56.1},"votes":{"yes":1710226,"no":921525,"total":2631751}},{"id":"bm-MO-amendment-3","st":"MO","slug":"amendment-3","label":"Amendment 3","title":"Repeal 2024 abortion rights amendment, restrict abortion","summary":"Repeals the 2024 reproductive freedom amendment, allows abortion only for medical emergencies, fetal anomalies, and rape or incest before 12 weeks, requires parental consent for minors, permits regulation, and bans gender transition procedures for minors.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"abortion","group":"abortion","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes: GOP legislature, Missouri Catholic Conference and anti-abortion groups. No: abortion rights coalition campaign launched May 27, 2026. Money not captured.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. HCS HJR 73 (2025).","est":{"yes":48.2,"p10":41.4,"p90":55.1,"prob":0.366},"prior":49.8,"pollAvg":47.6,"pollWeight":1.03,"polls":[{"pollster":"Remington Research Group (R)","sponsor":"Missouri Scout","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-15","n":684,"pop":"LV","yes":43,"no":43,"und":14,"url":"https://moscout.com/daily-updates-1/2026/10/17/moscout-weekender-a6-appears-headed-for-passage-fitz-hits-wilson-hallway-on-new-senators-and-more","adj":47.7},{"pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"Saint Louis University (SLU Poll)","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-13","end":"2026-08-24","n":900,"pop":"LV","yes":43,"no":44,"und":13,"url":"https://www.slu.edu/news/2026/september/slu-poll.php","adj":47.3},{"pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"Saint Louis University (SLU Poll)","side":"independent","start":"2026-02-09","end":"2026-02-22","n":900,"pop":"LV","yes":47,"no":40,"und":12,"url":"https://www.slu.edu/news/2026/march/slu-poll.php","adj":51.5}],"sources":["https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026BallotMeasures","https://www.slu.edu/news/2026/september/slu-poll.php","https://missouriindependent.com/2026/09/11/latest-missouri-poll-finds-another-razor-thin-margin-ahead-of-november-vote-on-abortion/","https://missouriindependent.com/2026/05/27/abortion-rights-coalition-launches-campaign-against-missouri-amendment-3/","https://mocatholic.org/poll-shows-missouri-voters-favor-pro-life-amendment/"],"counties":{"29001":55.8,"29003":65.8,"29005":71.4,"29007":66.9,"29009":75.2,"29011":78.6,"29013":73.8,"29015":72.6,"29017":80.6,"29019":31.0,"29021":53.2,"29023":74.6,"29025":72.6,"29027":63.0,"29029":67.6,"29031":61.9,"29033":74.2,"29035":80.9,"29037":56.9,"29039":77.0,"29041":69.4,"29043":65.0,"29045":73.7,"29047":40.8,"29049":65.8,"29051":51.1,"29053":64.1,"29055":74.3,"29057":76.5,"29059":75.0,"29061":73.9,"29063":73.9,"29065":77.9,"29067":79.0,"29069":74.2,"29071":64.5,"29073":72.5,"29075":72.4,"29077":47.5,"29079":74.4,"29081":78.6,"29083":69.4,"29085":74.1,"29087":76.4,"29089":62.4,"29091":75.8,"29093":73.4,"29095":40.3,"29097":61.2,"29099":56.7,"29101":60.3,"29103":75.1,"29105":76.1,"29107":65.2,"29109":74.7,"29111":72.6,"29113":67.2,"29115":70.9,"29117":71.4,"29119":78.1,"29121":72.7,"29123":75.1,"29125":76.5,"29127":67.2,"29129":79.0,"29131":75.7,"29133":69.3,"29135":74.3,"29137":72.0,"29139":72.5,"29141":72.7,"29143":69.7,"29145":70.5,"29147":62.3,"29149":78.0,"29151":77.6,"29153":78.0,"29155":67.8,"29157":73.3,"29159":67.4,"29161":60.8,"29163":71.5,"29165":37.0,"29167":72.2,"29169":66.1,"29171":76.6,"29173":72.1,"29175":68.5,"29177":67.7,"29179":77.1,"29181":80.0,"29183":43.1,"29185":73.5,"29186":65.9,"29187":68.5,"29189":28.9,"29195":62.7,"29197":76.0,"29199":73.8,"29201":70.5,"29203":77.4,"29205":75.0,"29207":79.6,"29209":71.4,"29211":76.4,"29213":70.6,"29215":78.5,"29217":72.5,"29219":67.1,"29221":76.2,"29223":79.7,"29225":73.4,"29227":73.9,"29229":80.9,"29510":14.4},"votes":{"yes":889101,"no":894830,"total":1783931}},{"id":"bm-MO-amendment-6","st":"MO","slug":"amendment-6","label":"Amendment 6","title":"Protect citizen initiatives from legislative repeal","summary":"Makes initiative and referendum a fundamental right, lets courts revise ballot summaries, bars the legislature from weakening those powers, and requires 80% of both chambers to send changes to voter-approved measures to the ballot.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"elections_voting","group":"elections_voting","lean":"D","campaign":"Yes: Respect MO Voters / Yes on Amendment 6 PAC, $2.7M raised mostly from labor, $929K on broadcast ads from Sept 22. No: Missouri GOP committee resolution, Sen. Jason Bean forming a committee. SoS Hoskins tried to block it; courts restored it.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. Aug 4 Amendment 4, which would have required a majority in each congressional district for initiated amendments, failed, so the simple majority rule applies.","est":{"yes":54.6,"p10":47.9,"p90":61.1,"prob":0.803},"prior":50.5,"pollAvg":56.1,"pollWeight":1.03,"polls":[{"pollster":"Remington Research Group (R)","sponsor":"Missouri Scout","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-15","n":684,"pop":"LV","yes":46,"no":26,"und":28,"url":"https://moscout.com/daily-updates-1/2026/10/17/moscout-weekender-a6-appears-headed-for-passage-fitz-hits-wilson-hallway-on-new-senators-and-more","adj":55.3},{"pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"Saint Louis University (SLU Poll)","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-13","end":"2026-08-24","n":900,"pop":"LV","yes":48,"no":21,"und":32,"url":"https://www.slu.edu/news/2026/september/slu-poll.php","adj":58.1}],"sources":["https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026BallotMeasures","https://www.slu.edu/news/2026/september/slu-poll.php","https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2026-09-29/missouri-republicans-amendment-6-proposition-a-election","https://missouriindependent.com/2026/08/18/missouri-ballot-proposals-blocked-by-secretary-of-state-had-enough-signatures-records-show/","https://www.ky3.com/2026/08/05/august-primary-missouri-voters-fail-amendment-4/"],"counties":{"29001":50.2,"29003":42.2,"29005":37.2,"29007":40.9,"29009":33.8,"29011":30.6,"29013":34.9,"29015":35.8,"29017":28.5,"29019":67.1,"29021":49.1,"29023":34.4,"29025":36.1,"29027":44.3,"29029":40.5,"29031":45.7,"29033":34.8,"29035":28.0,"29037":49.4,"29039":32.2,"29041":38.9,"29043":43.0,"29045":34.8,"29047":59.1,"29049":41.8,"29051":51.6,"29053":43.6,"29055":34.3,"29057":32.4,"29059":33.8,"29061":34.9,"29063":35.2,"29065":31.3,"29067":30.2,"29069":34.8,"29071":42.9,"29073":36.1,"29075":36.3,"29077":53.7,"29079":34.3,"29081":30.5,"29083":38.6,"29085":34.4,"29087":32.7,"29089":45.1,"29091":33.2,"29093":35.3,"29095":60.3,"29097":43.1,"29099":46.2,"29101":46.8,"29103":33.6,"29105":32.8,"29107":42.6,"29109":34.2,"29111":36.1,"29113":37.9,"29115":37.5,"29117":37.2,"29119":31.0,"29121":36.0,"29123":33.7,"29125":32.5,"29127":41.0,"29129":30.3,"29131":33.3,"29133":39.7,"29135":34.6,"29137":36.6,"29139":36.1,"29141":35.9,"29143":38.9,"29145":38.1,"29147":44.9,"29149":30.9,"29151":31.8,"29153":31.1,"29155":41.0,"29157":35.5,"29159":40.6,"29161":46.3,"29163":37.2,"29165":62.3,"29167":36.6,"29169":42.7,"29171":32.8,"29173":36.4,"29175":39.7,"29177":39.9,"29179":31.9,"29181":29.1,"29183":57.5,"29185":35.1,"29186":41.4,"29187":39.5,"29189":70.8,"29195":44.9,"29197":32.6,"29199":34.7,"29201":38.4,"29203":31.4,"29205":33.9,"29207":29.7,"29209":37.3,"29211":33.1,"29213":38.3,"29215":30.9,"29217":36.0,"29219":40.7,"29221":32.6,"29223":29.3,"29225":35.4,"29227":34.9,"29229":28.4,"29510":81.6},"votes":{"yes":952150,"no":831787,"total":1783937}},{"id":"bm-MO-amendment-7","st":"MO","slug":"amendment-7","label":"Amendment 7","title":"Create Show-Me Prosperity Fund to replace state taxes","summary":"Creates a permanent endowment meant to eventually eliminate state taxes, barring spending until the Treasurer certifies it can replace them and capping yearly draws at 3% of the five-year average value.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_income","group":"taxes_income","lean":"R","campaign":"Placed by GOP legislature; no campaign or money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. SS SCS SJR 95 (2026).","est":{"yes":66.6,"p10":53.6,"p90":77.7,"prob":0.9385},"prior":66.6,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026BallotMeasures","https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2026-09-15/missouri-kansas-election-guide-2026-voting-registration"],"counties":{"29001":70.4,"29003":74.9,"29005":77.2,"29007":74.6,"29009":78.5,"29011":80.7,"29013":78.0,"29015":77.3,"29017":81.7,"29019":60.1,"29021":70.0,"29023":78.5,"29025":77.7,"29027":73.2,"29029":75.6,"29031":73.4,"29033":78.5,"29035":81.6,"29037":70.5,"29039":80.0,"29041":76.3,"29043":74.8,"29045":78.0,"29047":64.5,"29049":74.4,"29051":70.4,"29053":73.8,"29055":78.2,"29057":79.4,"29059":78.7,"29061":78.3,"29063":78.2,"29065":80.3,"29067":80.8,"29069":78.1,"29071":73.8,"29073":77.5,"29075":77.7,"29077":67.9,"29079":78.4,"29081":80.6,"29083":75.8,"29085":78.0,"29087":79.7,"29089":73.2,"29091":79.2,"29093":78.0,"29095":64.4,"29097":74.0,"29099":71.8,"29101":72.1,"29103":78.8,"29105":79.3,"29107":74.4,"29109":78.5,"29111":77.5,"29113":76.4,"29115":76.7,"29117":76.9,"29119":80.0,"29121":77.7,"29123":78.8,"29125":79.5,"29127":75.4,"29129":81.0,"29131":79.3,"29133":76.1,"29135":78.3,"29137":77.4,"29139":77.5,"29141":77.4,"29143":76.0,"29145":76.8,"29147":73.1,"29149":80.1,"29151":80.7,"29153":80.2,"29155":75.1,"29157":78.1,"29159":74.8,"29161":72.7,"29163":77.0,"29165":63.3,"29167":77.6,"29169":74.7,"29171":79.9,"29173":77.3,"29175":75.6,"29177":74.9,"29179":79.8,"29181":81.2,"29183":66.5,"29185":77.8,"29186":74.0,"29187":75.4,"29189":57.3,"29195":72.7,"29197":78.9,"29199":78.0,"29201":76.9,"29203":79.8,"29205":78.8,"29207":81.3,"29209":77.4,"29211":79.1,"29213":76.9,"29215":80.7,"29217":77.4,"29219":74.8,"29221":79.1,"29223":81.1,"29225":78.0,"29227":78.5,"29229":81.9,"29510":45.5},"votes":{"yes":1207128,"no":576809,"total":1783937}},{"id":"bm-MO-amendment-8","st":"MO","slug":"amendment-8","label":"Amendment 8","title":"Constitutionally require elected county sheriffs","summary":"Writes four-year county sheriff elections and sheriff duties into the constitution, with St. Louis area exceptions, and allows removal only by quo warranto initiated by the Attorney General.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"criminal_justice","group":"criminal_justice","lean":"R","campaign":"Placed by GOP legislature; no campaign or money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. CCS HCS SS SJR 87 (2026).","est":{"yes":75.9,"p10":65.3,"p90":84.1,"prob":0.9975},"prior":75.9,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026BallotMeasures","https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2026-09-15/missouri-kansas-election-guide-2026-voting-registration"],"counties":{"29001":84.0,"29003":86.6,"29005":88.1,"29007":86.0,"29009":88.8,"29011":89.9,"29013":88.3,"29015":88.2,"29017":90.4,"29019":69.8,"29021":78.6,"29023":88.3,"29025":88.2,"29027":85.2,"29029":87.1,"29031":84.9,"29033":88.6,"29035":90.5,"29037":83.5,"29039":89.5,"29041":87.3,"29043":86.5,"29045":88.4,"29047":74.1,"29049":86.4,"29051":77.8,"29053":85.2,"29055":88.6,"29057":89.3,"29059":88.9,"29061":88.5,"29063":87.7,"29065":89.7,"29067":89.9,"29069":87.8,"29071":86.1,"29073":88.2,"29075":88.3,"29077":77.4,"29079":88.7,"29081":89.9,"29083":87.3,"29085":88.6,"29087":89.4,"29089":85.0,"29091":89.1,"29093":88.5,"29095":70.4,"29097":82.0,"29099":80.7,"29101":84.6,"29103":88.9,"29105":89.2,"29107":86.2,"29109":88.8,"29111":87.8,"29113":83.8,"29115":87.7,"29117":87.5,"29119":89.6,"29121":88.1,"29123":88.9,"29125":89.3,"29127":86.4,"29129":90.1,"29131":89.1,"29133":84.6,"29135":88.4,"29137":87.8,"29139":88.2,"29141":88.3,"29143":85.9,"29145":87.8,"29147":85.4,"29149":89.7,"29151":89.8,"29153":89.7,"29155":83.8,"29157":88.5,"29159":86.5,"29161":85.2,"29163":87.3,"29165":72.9,"29167":88.2,"29169":85.3,"29171":89.5,"29173":87.9,"29175":86.4,"29177":86.8,"29179":89.4,"29181":90.2,"29183":75.6,"29185":88.4,"29186":86.2,"29187":86.7,"29189":63.7,"29195":84.8,"29197":89.1,"29199":88.6,"29201":86.8,"29203":89.5,"29205":88.9,"29207":90.2,"29209":88.1,"29211":89.0,"29213":87.7,"29215":89.5,"29217":88.1,"29219":86.7,"29221":88.9,"29223":90.2,"29225":88.4,"29227":88.7,"29229":90.6,"29510":48.5},"votes":{"yes":1362981,"no":420957,"total":1783938}},{"id":"bm-MO-proposition-a","st":"MO","slug":"proposition-a","label":"Proposition A","title":"Keep 2025 Republican-drawn congressional map","summary":"A Yes vote approves HB 1 (2025 special session), replacing Missouri's congressional map with the 2025 boundaries; a No vote keeps the 2022 map. The 2026 election is being held under the 2022 map.","type":"veto referendum","category":"redistricting","group":"redistricting","lean":"R","campaign":"No (repeal map): People Not Politicians, about $800K in TV ads booked. Yes (keep map): Missouri GOP committee resolution, Act for Missouri; Put Missouri First PAC has spent $2.9M, mostly on petition-stage fights and litigation.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. Referendum petition by People Not Politicians; SoS tried to block it, courts put it on the ballot.","est":{"yes":49.3,"p10":40.2,"p90":58.3,"prob":0.4645},"prior":53.0,"pollAvg":46.0,"pollWeight":0.3,"polls":[{"pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"Saint Louis University (SLU Poll)","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-13","end":"2026-08-24","n":900,"pop":"LV","yes":35,"no":32,"und":33,"url":"https://www.slu.edu/news/2026/september/slu-poll.php","adj":46.0},{"pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"Saint Louis University (SLU Poll)","side":"independent","start":"2026-02-09","end":"2026-02-22","n":900,"pop":"LV","yes":41,"no":44,"und":15,"url":"https://www.slu.edu/news/2026/march/slu-poll.php","adj":46.0}],"sources":["https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026BallotMeasures","https://www.slu.edu/news/2026/september/slu-poll.php","https://www.kctv5.com/2026/09/22/missouri-voters-split-polling-data-congressional-redistricting/","https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2026-09-29/missouri-republicans-amendment-6-proposition-a-election","https://missouriindependent.com/2026/08/18/missouri-ballot-proposals-blocked-by-secretary-of-state-had-enough-signatures-records-show/"],"counties":{"29001":56.6,"29003":64.0,"29005":67.1,"29007":59.6,"29009":67.9,"29011":73.6,"29013":66.7,"29015":65.2,"29017":74.9,"29019":41.7,"29021":51.8,"29023":68.2,"29025":67.5,"29027":59.0,"29029":64.8,"29031":62.1,"29033":69.1,"29035":73.7,"29037":54.8,"29039":72.3,"29041":65.2,"29043":64.9,"29045":66.7,"29047":45.0,"29049":60.8,"29051":57.6,"29053":60.0,"29055":66.9,"29057":70.1,"29059":68.8,"29061":68.4,"29063":67.7,"29065":72.3,"29067":73.1,"29069":66.5,"29071":60.0,"29073":66.5,"29075":68.0,"29077":50.6,"29079":68.2,"29081":73.0,"29083":62.1,"29085":66.0,"29087":72.0,"29089":60.2,"29091":70.3,"29093":68.0,"29095":43.9,"29097":60.8,"29099":55.9,"29101":58.1,"29103":68.7,"29105":70.1,"29107":62.1,"29109":68.4,"29111":66.3,"29113":64.2,"29115":65.1,"29117":65.0,"29119":70.6,"29121":67.4,"29123":68.9,"29125":70.6,"29127":63.8,"29129":74.4,"29131":70.9,"29133":62.2,"29135":67.7,"29137":66.5,"29139":66.4,"29141":66.0,"29143":62.1,"29145":66.7,"29147":59.8,"29149":70.9,"29151":75.4,"29153":71.9,"29155":59.3,"29157":68.8,"29159":60.6,"29161":60.3,"29163":64.9,"29165":45.9,"29167":68.2,"29169":62.7,"29171":73.2,"29173":65.7,"29175":62.3,"29177":60.0,"29179":70.8,"29181":73.5,"29183":50.9,"29185":66.2,"29186":58.3,"29187":61.6,"29189":35.5,"29195":57.2,"29197":68.0,"29199":66.8,"29201":66.4,"29203":70.3,"29205":69.7,"29207":74.6,"29209":68.3,"29211":69.5,"29213":67.3,"29215":73.2,"29217":65.9,"29219":61.2,"29221":68.3,"29223":73.2,"29225":67.7,"29227":69.6,"29229":75.9,"29510":17.9},"votes":{"yes":914123,"no":869810,"total":1783933}},{"id":"bm-NE-constitutional-amendment-1","st":"NE","slug":"constitutional-amendment-1","label":"Constitutional Amendment 1","title":"Allow three consecutive legislative terms","summary":"Lets state senators serve three consecutive four-year terms instead of two.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"government_ethics","group":"government_ethics","lean":"none","campaign":"Referred by the Legislature in May 2025; no organized campaigns or money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election.","est":{"yes":69.0,"p10":56.0,"p90":79.1,"prob":0.9695},"prior":69.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/secretary-state-evnen-certifies-nebraskas-fall-2026-ballot-after-lawsuit-heavy-summer","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/05/29/nebraska-voters-to-decide-on-change-to-state-legislative-term-limit-in-2026-20-years-after-it-took-effect/"],"counties":{"31001":68.2,"31003":66.5,"31005":68.6,"31007":68.4,"31009":66.7,"31011":66.3,"31013":66.4,"31015":66.3,"31017":66.8,"31019":69.0,"31021":67.1,"31023":67.1,"31025":68.4,"31027":67.0,"31029":67.3,"31031":67.2,"31033":67.1,"31035":66.9,"31037":66.6,"31039":67.5,"31041":67.1,"31043":66.3,"31045":69.1,"31047":66.7,"31049":67.2,"31051":67.2,"31053":67.2,"31055":70.3,"31057":66.6,"31059":67.0,"31061":66.6,"31063":67.2,"31065":67.1,"31067":67.1,"31069":66.4,"31071":67.6,"31073":67.6,"31075":67.7,"31077":66.5,"31079":67.4,"31081":68.2,"31083":67.6,"31085":66.3,"31087":66.4,"31089":67.7,"31091":67.0,"31093":67.3,"31095":66.5,"31097":66.6,"31099":68.5,"31101":66.9,"31103":66.4,"31105":65.7,"31107":66.3,"31109":70.0,"31111":67.1,"31113":66.7,"31115":67.5,"31117":67.3,"31119":67.4,"31121":66.3,"31123":66.6,"31125":66.5,"31127":68.1,"31129":66.8,"31131":67.7,"31133":66.5,"31135":67.4,"31137":67.9,"31139":67.1,"31141":67.4,"31143":66.4,"31145":67.4,"31147":67.0,"31149":67.2,"31151":67.6,"31153":70.2,"31155":68.4,"31157":67.8,"31159":68.6,"31161":67.0,"31163":66.4,"31165":66.6,"31167":67.2,"31169":67.0,"31171":67.5,"31173":67.5,"31175":67.1,"31177":69.0,"31179":68.4,"31181":66.6,"31183":67.6,"31185":67.4},"votes":{"yes":501575,"no":225372,"total":726947}},{"id":"bm-NE-initiative-measure-440","st":"NE","slug":"initiative-measure-440","label":"Initiative Measure 440","title":"Legalize online sports betting through racetracks","summary":"Amends the constitution to legalize online sports betting conducted through vendors at Nebraska's six licensed racetrack casinos.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"gambling","group":"gambling","lean":"none","campaign":"Yes: Tax Relief Nebraska, backed by BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and racetrack operators such as WarHorse; reported around $2.6M. No formal opposition; Nebraska Council on Problem Gambling raised concerns.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election.","est":{"yes":42.6,"p10":30.1,"p90":55.9,"prob":0.2165},"prior":42.6,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/secretary-state-evnen-certifies-nebraskas-fall-2026-ballot-after-lawsuit-heavy-summer","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/06/campaign-behind-two-online-sports-betting-initiatives-submitted-signatures-in-nebraska/","https://www.wowt.com/2026/08/22/nebraska-secretary-state-certifies-online-sports-wagering-petitions/","https://brightsideofnews.com/gambling/nebraska-sports-betting-ballot-2026/"],"counties":{"31001":41.6,"31003":39.7,"31005":41.0,"31007":40.1,"31009":38.4,"31011":40.2,"31013":40.2,"31015":38.7,"31017":39.6,"31019":42.7,"31021":40.1,"31023":41.0,"31025":42.0,"31027":40.7,"31029":40.0,"31031":40.7,"31033":40.5,"31035":41.1,"31037":41.6,"31039":40.6,"31041":40.5,"31043":41.7,"31045":42.5,"31047":41.1,"31049":39.5,"31051":40.6,"31053":40.9,"31055":43.7,"31057":40.1,"31059":40.3,"31061":39.3,"31063":40.0,"31065":39.8,"31067":40.5,"31069":39.3,"31071":39.6,"31073":40.5,"31075":41.1,"31077":39.7,"31079":41.6,"31081":41.4,"31083":39.9,"31085":39.8,"31087":39.4,"31089":40.5,"31091":41.8,"31093":40.4,"31095":39.6,"31097":40.9,"31099":41.4,"31101":39.1,"31103":40.0,"31105":38.9,"31107":39.6,"31109":43.7,"31111":40.7,"31113":39.8,"31115":41.1,"31117":41.5,"31119":41.6,"31121":40.6,"31123":40.7,"31125":40.5,"31127":41.4,"31129":39.0,"31131":41.0,"31133":38.9,"31135":40.1,"31137":41.3,"31139":41.0,"31141":41.3,"31143":40.2,"31145":40.9,"31147":39.9,"31149":39.6,"31151":41.9,"31153":43.9,"31155":42.0,"31157":40.6,"31159":42.3,"31161":39.1,"31163":39.2,"31165":39.5,"31167":41.0,"31169":40.0,"31171":38.7,"31173":42.3,"31175":40.0,"31177":42.1,"31179":42.8,"31181":40.2,"31183":39.2,"31185":41.1},"votes":{"yes":309353,"no":417585,"total":726938}},{"id":"bm-NE-initiative-measure-441","st":"NE","slug":"initiative-measure-441","label":"Initiative Measure 441","title":"Regulate online sports betting","summary":"Statute defining online sports betting and requiring the Nebraska Racing and Gaming Commission to adopt rules by June 1, 2027.","type":"initiated statute","category":"gambling","group":"gambling","lean":"none","campaign":"Companion to IM 440, same Tax Relief Nebraska campaign and sportsbook backers.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election.","est":{"yes":43.8,"p10":31.3,"p90":57.3,"prob":0.275},"prior":43.8,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/secretary-state-evnen-certifies-nebraskas-fall-2026-ballot-after-lawsuit-heavy-summer","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/06/campaign-behind-two-online-sports-betting-initiatives-submitted-signatures-in-nebraska/"],"counties":{"31001":42.8,"31003":40.9,"31005":42.2,"31007":41.3,"31009":39.6,"31011":41.4,"31013":41.4,"31015":39.9,"31017":40.8,"31019":43.9,"31021":41.3,"31023":42.2,"31025":43.2,"31027":41.9,"31029":41.2,"31031":41.9,"31033":41.7,"31035":42.3,"31037":42.8,"31039":41.9,"31041":41.7,"31043":42.9,"31045":43.7,"31047":42.3,"31049":40.8,"31051":41.8,"31053":42.2,"31055":44.9,"31057":41.3,"31059":41.5,"31061":40.5,"31063":41.2,"31065":41.0,"31067":41.7,"31069":40.5,"31071":40.8,"31073":41.7,"31075":42.3,"31077":41.0,"31079":42.8,"31081":42.7,"31083":41.1,"31085":41.0,"31087":40.6,"31089":41.7,"31091":43.0,"31093":41.6,"31095":40.8,"31097":42.2,"31099":42.6,"31101":40.3,"31103":41.2,"31105":40.1,"31107":40.8,"31109":44.9,"31111":41.9,"31113":41.0,"31115":42.3,"31117":42.7,"31119":42.8,"31121":41.8,"31123":41.9,"31125":41.7,"31127":42.6,"31129":40.2,"31131":42.2,"31133":40.1,"31135":41.3,"31137":42.5,"31139":42.3,"31141":42.5,"31143":41.4,"31145":42.2,"31147":41.1,"31149":40.8,"31151":43.2,"31153":45.2,"31155":43.2,"31157":41.9,"31159":43.5,"31161":40.3,"31163":40.4,"31165":40.7,"31167":42.2,"31169":41.2,"31171":39.9,"31173":43.5,"31175":41.2,"31177":43.3,"31179":44.1,"31181":41.4,"31183":40.4,"31185":42.3},"votes":{"yes":318273,"no":408673,"total":726946}},{"id":"bm-NE-initiative-measure-442","st":"NE","slug":"initiative-measure-442","label":"Initiative Measure 442","title":"Sex-separate school and college sports teams","summary":"Adds to the constitution a requirement that public K-12 schools, colleges and private schools that compete with them designate teams as male, female or coed and bar males from female teams, making part of a 2025 law permanent.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"lgbtq_rights","group":"lgbtq_rights","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes: Fairness for Girls campaign, record of about 211K signatures. No: legal challenge by Lincoln voter Cara Ullman; no funded No campaign reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election. A Nebraska Supreme Court challenge was argued Sept 30, 2026; the state says any reversal must come by Oct 27.","est":{"yes":65.2,"p10":52.2,"p90":76.1,"prob":0.9325},"prior":65.2,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/secretary-state-evnen-certifies-nebraskas-fall-2026-ballot-after-lawsuit-heavy-summer","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/430069","https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2026/06/30/measure-that-would-add-limits-on-school-sports-by-sex-to-nebraska-constitution-gathers-211k-signatures/","https://nebraskaexaminer.com/?p=43913"],"counties":{"31001":65.2,"31003":64.9,"31005":64.9,"31007":64.8,"31009":64.5,"31011":65.0,"31013":65.1,"31015":64.7,"31017":64.8,"31019":65.4,"31021":64.9,"31023":65.1,"31025":65.2,"31027":65.1,"31029":65.0,"31031":65.1,"31033":65.0,"31035":65.3,"31037":65.8,"31039":65.1,"31041":65.0,"31043":65.9,"31045":65.3,"31047":65.6,"31049":64.8,"31051":65.1,"31053":65.2,"31055":64.0,"31057":65.0,"31059":65.0,"31061":64.8,"31063":64.9,"31065":64.9,"31067":65.0,"31069":64.8,"31071":64.7,"31073":64.9,"31075":65.1,"31077":64.9,"31079":65.5,"31081":65.1,"31083":64.8,"31085":64.9,"31087":64.8,"31089":64.9,"31091":65.4,"31093":64.9,"31095":64.9,"31097":65.4,"31099":65.1,"31101":64.7,"31103":65.0,"31105":64.9,"31107":64.9,"31109":66.6,"31111":65.1,"31113":64.9,"31115":65.1,"31117":65.3,"31119":65.3,"31121":65.1,"31123":65.2,"31125":65.1,"31127":65.2,"31129":64.7,"31131":65.1,"31133":64.7,"31135":64.9,"31137":65.1,"31139":65.2,"31141":65.3,"31143":65.0,"31145":65.1,"31147":64.9,"31149":64.8,"31151":65.5,"31153":66.6,"31155":65.2,"31157":65.1,"31159":65.3,"31161":64.7,"31163":64.8,"31165":64.8,"31167":65.1,"31169":64.9,"31171":64.6,"31173":65.5,"31175":64.9,"31177":65.2,"31179":65.6,"31181":65.0,"31183":64.6,"31185":65.2},"votes":{"yes":474077,"no":252861,"total":726938}},{"id":"bm-ND-constitutional-measure-no-1","st":"ND","slug":"constitutional-measure-no-1","label":"Constitutional Measure No. 1","title":"Require 60% voter approval for constitutional amendments","summary":"Requires future constitutional amendments, whether legislative or initiated, to win at least 60% voter approval to take effect.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"supermajority","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes: legislative Republicans (Rep. Robin Weisz), North Dakota Farm Bureau. No organized No campaign or money found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority to adopt. Referred by HCR 3003 (2025).","est":{"yes":52.7,"p10":39.3,"p90":65.8,"prob":0.609},"prior":52.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.valleynewslive.com/2026/10/15/north-dakota-voters-decide-two-constitutional-amendments-november-election/","https://ndfb.org/image/cache/NDFB_Measure_Voter_Guide_2026.pdf","https://northdakotamonitor.com/?p=11615","https://www.sos.nd.gov/sites/default/files/documents/elections/measures/ballot-language-2026-general-measure1.pdf"],"counties":{"38001":60.6,"38003":52.7,"38005":49.8,"38007":62.3,"38009":57.8,"38011":64.1,"38013":64.9,"38015":48.7,"38017":45.7,"38019":56.8,"38021":57.1,"38023":58.3,"38025":62.7,"38027":55.1,"38029":66.5,"38031":59.0,"38033":64.8,"38035":48.1,"38037":62.4,"38039":57.2,"38041":63.0,"38043":61.0,"38045":58.3,"38047":65.5,"38049":61.3,"38051":61.8,"38053":63.4,"38055":59.0,"38057":62.9,"38059":57.6,"38061":55.3,"38063":52.0,"38065":63.2,"38067":57.7,"38069":57.5,"38071":54.3,"38073":51.8,"38075":63.0,"38077":53.8,"38079":40.6,"38081":53.3,"38083":64.4,"38085":38.5,"38087":68.0,"38089":61.1,"38091":50.6,"38093":55.4,"38095":55.9,"38097":51.8,"38099":56.2,"38101":55.7,"38103":60.8,"38105":62.5},"votes":{"yes":110154,"no":98890,"total":209044}},{"id":"bm-ND-initiated-constitutional-measure-no-2","st":"ND","slug":"initiated-constitutional-measure-no-2","label":"Initiated Constitutional Measure No. 2","title":"Free breakfast and lunch for all public school students","summary":"Requires public schools to give every student one free breakfast and one free lunch each school day, with full state reimbursement adjusted for inflation and the Legacy Fund earnings as fallback funding, starting 2027-28.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"education","group":"education","lean":"D","campaign":"Citizen sponsoring committee; estimated cost $124M to $134M per biennium; Farm Bureau neutral; no money totals found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority under current rules; unclear whether a same-day Measure 1 win would apply to it.","est":{"yes":45.9,"p10":33.8,"p90":59.4,"prob":0.3705},"prior":45.9,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.valleynewslive.com/2026/10/15/north-dakota-voters-decide-two-constitutional-amendments-november-election/","https://ndfb.org/image/cache/NDFB_Measure_Voter_Guide_2026.pdf","https://www.sos.nd.gov/news/constitutional-initiative-related-funding-school-lunches-approved-november-3-2026-ballot"],"counties":{"38001":38.8,"38003":46.6,"38005":49.5,"38007":37.0,"38009":41.5,"38011":35.3,"38013":34.5,"38015":45.6,"38017":53.6,"38019":42.5,"38021":42.2,"38023":41.0,"38025":36.6,"38027":44.1,"38029":32.9,"38031":40.3,"38033":34.5,"38035":51.2,"38037":36.9,"38039":42.1,"38041":36.3,"38043":38.3,"38045":41.0,"38047":33.9,"38049":38.0,"38051":37.5,"38053":36.0,"38055":40.3,"38057":36.5,"38059":41.7,"38061":44.0,"38063":47.3,"38065":36.1,"38067":41.6,"38069":41.8,"38071":45.0,"38073":47.5,"38075":36.3,"38077":45.5,"38079":58.7,"38081":46.0,"38083":34.9,"38085":60.9,"38087":31.3,"38089":38.3,"38091":48.7,"38093":43.9,"38095":43.4,"38097":47.5,"38099":43.1,"38101":43.6,"38103":38.5,"38105":36.8},"votes":{"yes":95914,"no":113130,"total":209044}},{"id":"bm-OH-issue-3","st":"OH","slug":"issue-3","label":"Issue 3","title":"Put photo voter ID in Ohio Constitution","summary":"Requires an approved government-issued photo ID to vote in person, with a religious-objection alternative; absentee voters also need photo ID unless law allows signature plus another identifier.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"voter_id","group":"voter_id","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes: GOP legislators, Honest Elections Project Action. No: Ohio Citizen Action and voting rights groups. No money totals found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. SJR 10 (2026); Ohio's only statewide issue this year.","est":{"yes":69.5,"p10":63.7,"p90":74.5,"prob":1.0},"prior":75.3,"pollAvg":67.7,"pollWeight":1.61,"polls":[{"pollster":"Echelon Insights","sponsor":"NetChoice","side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-23","n":508,"pop":"LV","yes":70,"no":28,"und":2,"url":"https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/vivek-ramaswamy-holds-narrowest-of-leads-over-amy-acton-one-week-from-election-day","adj":70.7},{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center / USA TODAY Network Ohio","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-09-23","end":"2026-09-27","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":61,"no":31.2,"und":7.8,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/10_2_2026_ohio_statewide_complete_marginals.pdf","adj":63.6},{"pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"Bowling Green State University","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-01","end":"2026-09-10","n":1000,"pop":"LV","yes":64,"no":29,"und":7,"url":"https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1027&context=depo","adj":66.3},{"pollster":"Not named","sponsor":"Honest Elections Project Action","side":"yes","start":"2026-05-27","end":"2026-06-02","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":70,"no":null,"und":null,"url":"https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/06/05/poll-ohio-voter-id-amendment/","adj":null}],"sources":["https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/voter-guides/ballot-measures/2026-ohio-general-election-statewide-issue-3/","https://www.cleveland19.com/2026/08/04/ohio-voter-id-amendment-is-officially-headed-november-ballot/","https://www.ohiosos.gov/office/media-center/categories/week-in-review/week-in-review-2026-08-21","https://ohiocitizen.org/campaigns/no-on-hjr-9-and-sjr-10/","https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/06/05/poll-ohio-voter-id-amendment/","https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/depo/28/"],"counties":{"39001":86.6,"39003":80.0,"39005":82.3,"39007":77.3,"39009":66.0,"39011":86.0,"39013":81.7,"39015":85.5,"39017":74.4,"39019":83.9,"39021":82.7,"39023":76.7,"39025":78.1,"39027":83.5,"39029":82.3,"39031":83.3,"39033":83.4,"39035":54.0,"39037":86.5,"39039":79.8,"39041":67.6,"39043":72.1,"39045":74.1,"39047":84.0,"39049":55.4,"39051":80.5,"39053":84.5,"39055":74.5,"39057":72.6,"39059":83.2,"39061":59.7,"39063":78.7,"39065":83.6,"39067":84.2,"39069":81.7,"39071":85.9,"39073":81.7,"39075":87.8,"39077":81.2,"39079":84.7,"39081":80.6,"39083":80.9,"39085":72.4,"39087":82.6,"39089":76.6,"39091":84.0,"39093":69.7,"39095":62.8,"39097":80.1,"39099":70.0,"39101":80.2,"39103":75.1,"39105":84.7,"39107":86.4,"39109":80.7,"39111":85.5,"39113":65.8,"39115":83.5,"39117":83.9,"39119":80.7,"39121":85.9,"39123":75.7,"39125":84.2,"39127":83.9,"39129":81.7,"39131":83.6,"39133":72.7,"39135":84.8,"39137":86.7,"39139":80.0,"39141":79.6,"39143":77.6,"39145":81.9,"39147":79.3,"39149":85.9,"39151":74.5,"39153":64.9,"39155":73.7,"39157":80.9,"39159":75.8,"39161":84.7,"39163":84.9,"39165":75.6,"39167":80.9,"39169":79.5,"39171":82.5,"39173":71.1,"39175":82.8},"votes":{"yes":3110470,"no":1368211,"total":4478681}},{"id":"bm-SD-constitutional-amendment-i","st":"SD","slug":"constitutional-amendment-i","label":"Constitutional Amendment I","title":"Tie Medicaid expansion to federal funding level","summary":"Conditions the 2022 voter-approved Medicaid expansion on the federal funding level, letting the state pull back expansion if federal matching funds drop below a set level.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"health_care","group":"health_care","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by GOP legislature; no campaign data found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. If Amendment L passes, it is unclear whether it applies to amendments on the same ballot. HJR 5001 (2025).","est":{"yes":39.3,"p10":32.8,"p90":46.8,"prob":0.028},"prior":60.0,"pollAvg":31.7,"pollWeight":0.89,"polls":[{"pollster":"Emerson College Polling","sponsor":"KELOLAND","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-21","n":803,"pop":"LV","yes":27,"no":59,"und":14,"url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/south-dakota-2026-poll-republican-sen-rounds-leads-independent-bengs-50-to-42/","adj":31.7}],"sources":["https://sdsos.gov/Division%20of%20Elections/Ballot%20Questions/ballot-questions-2026.aspx","https://www.thedakotascout.com/p/2026-general-election-ballot-set"],"counties":{"46003":48.2,"46005":42.7,"46007":37.9,"46009":47.2,"46011":34.7,"46013":37.9,"46015":43.7,"46017":23.2,"46019":51.3,"46021":56.6,"46023":43.7,"46025":48.1,"46027":28.2,"46029":42.8,"46031":33.4,"46033":45.5,"46035":42.0,"46037":39.6,"46039":47.3,"46041":26.6,"46043":57.8,"46045":51.3,"46047":47.1,"46049":54.1,"46051":45.0,"46053":51.6,"46055":63.6,"46057":50.4,"46059":49.7,"46061":49.9,"46063":69.4,"46065":38.9,"46067":49.9,"46069":49.1,"46071":40.1,"46073":44.6,"46075":60.9,"46077":44.2,"46079":39.8,"46081":39.9,"46083":37.5,"46085":42.3,"46087":46.0,"46089":56.8,"46091":37.6,"46093":46.6,"46095":35.9,"46097":45.9,"46099":33.6,"46101":39.7,"46103":38.1,"46105":56.6,"46107":54.5,"46109":37.2,"46111":48.6,"46102":12.2,"46115":42.7,"46117":45.3,"46119":51.5,"46121":17.5,"46123":52.8,"46125":47.1,"46127":42.7,"46129":50.7,"46135":38.0,"46137":30.6},"votes":{"yes":141772,"no":218926,"total":360698}},{"id":"bm-SD-constitutional-amendment-j","st":"SD","slug":"constitutional-amendment-j","label":"Constitutional Amendment J","title":"Only U.S. citizens may vote","summary":"Amends the constitution to limit voting eligibility to U.S. citizens.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"citizen_voting","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by GOP legislature; no campaign data found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. If Amendment L passes, it is unclear whether it applies to amendments on the same ballot. SJR 503 (2025).","est":{"yes":71.8,"p10":65.5,"p90":77.2,"prob":1.0},"prior":84.8,"pollAvg":65.0,"pollWeight":0.89,"polls":[{"pollster":"Emerson College Polling","sponsor":"KELOLAND","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-21","n":803,"pop":"LV","yes":64,"no":33,"und":3,"url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/south-dakota-2026-poll-republican-sen-rounds-leads-independent-bengs-50-to-42/","adj":65.0}],"sources":["https://sdsos.gov/Division%20of%20Elections/Ballot%20Questions/ballot-questions-2026.aspx"],"counties":{"46003":80.9,"46005":75.4,"46007":72.5,"46009":80.1,"46011":67.1,"46013":71.0,"46015":76.6,"46017":55.3,"46019":83.1,"46021":85.0,"46023":76.9,"46025":80.7,"46027":58.7,"46029":76.8,"46031":67.8,"46033":77.4,"46035":75.7,"46037":73.5,"46039":80.0,"46041":59.6,"46043":86.6,"46045":82.5,"46047":78.8,"46049":84.7,"46051":77.9,"46053":83.0,"46055":89.8,"46057":82.6,"46059":81.4,"46061":82.6,"46063":92.2,"46065":71.6,"46067":81.5,"46069":81.7,"46071":75.9,"46073":77.4,"46075":88.1,"46077":77.7,"46079":72.2,"46081":72.7,"46083":69.9,"46085":75.9,"46087":78.7,"46089":85.7,"46091":71.0,"46093":79.3,"46095":70.4,"46097":79.3,"46099":66.2,"46101":73.0,"46103":70.8,"46105":86.0,"46107":84.2,"46109":71.5,"46111":81.3,"46102":33.6,"46115":75.6,"46117":78.1,"46119":83.1,"46121":44.5,"46123":84.0,"46125":79.7,"46127":75.1,"46129":81.9,"46135":70.8,"46137":65.3},"votes":{"yes":258772,"no":101926,"total":360698}},{"id":"bm-SD-constitutional-amendment-k","st":"SD","slug":"constitutional-amendment-k","label":"Constitutional Amendment K","title":"Create trust for unclaimed property fund","summary":"Puts the state's unclaimed property fund into a constitutional trust.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"No campaign data found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. If Amendment L passes, it is unclear whether it applies to amendments on the same ballot. SJR 505 (2025).","est":{"yes":54.6,"p10":47.3,"p90":61.7,"prob":0.792},"prior":64.0,"pollAvg":50.7,"pollWeight":0.89,"polls":[{"pollster":"Emerson College Polling","sponsor":"KELOLAND","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-21","n":803,"pop":"LV","yes":41,"no":30,"und":29,"url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/south-dakota-2026-poll-republican-sen-rounds-leads-independent-bengs-50-to-42/","adj":50.7}],"sources":["https://sdsos.gov/Division%20of%20Elections/Ballot%20Questions/ballot-questions-2026.aspx"],"counties":{"46003":49.4,"46005":52.4,"46007":53.2,"46009":49.6,"46011":58.1,"46013":55.2,"46015":52.0,"46017":59.5,"46019":48.0,"46021":47.3,"46023":51.7,"46025":48.4,"46027":61.4,"46029":51.4,"46031":55.6,"46033":50.9,"46035":51.8,"46037":52.1,"46039":50.0,"46041":59.0,"46043":45.7,"46045":48.8,"46047":49.9,"46049":46.9,"46051":50.6,"46053":47.5,"46055":42.8,"46057":49.4,"46059":49.2,"46061":49.2,"46063":42.2,"46065":55.5,"46067":49.5,"46069":48.0,"46071":52.1,"46073":49.6,"46075":44.7,"46077":50.8,"46079":54.1,"46081":53.7,"46083":57.1,"46085":52.5,"46087":51.3,"46089":45.6,"46091":53.6,"46093":51.3,"46095":54.7,"46097":49.0,"46099":57.8,"46101":53.8,"46103":55.2,"46105":45.8,"46107":46.8,"46109":53.1,"46111":49.1,"46102":66.8,"46115":52.0,"46117":51.0,"46119":48.3,"46121":63.6,"46123":46.7,"46125":50.5,"46127":53.6,"46129":49.3,"46135":54.7,"46137":56.7},"votes":{"yes":196803,"no":163892,"total":360695}},{"id":"bm-SD-constitutional-amendment-l","st":"SD","slug":"constitutional-amendment-l","label":"Constitutional Amendment L","title":"Require 60% to pass constitutional amendments","summary":"Raises the vote needed to approve future constitutional amendments from a simple majority to 60% of votes cast.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"supermajority","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes: Rep. John Hughes and GOP legislators. No: Voter Defense Association of South Dakota, Dakota Rural Action; The Fairness Project has spent about $260K on ads against.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority to adopt. HJR 5003 (2025).","est":{"yes":37.7,"p10":31.3,"p90":45.0,"prob":0.016},"prior":51.2,"pollAvg":32.7,"pollWeight":0.89,"polls":[{"pollster":"Emerson College Polling","sponsor":"KELOLAND","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-21","n":803,"pop":"LV","yes":29,"no":60,"und":11,"url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/south-dakota-2026-poll-republican-sen-rounds-leads-independent-bengs-50-to-42/","adj":32.7}],"sources":["https://sdsos.gov/Division%20of%20Elections/Ballot%20Questions/ballot-questions-2026.aspx","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/432672","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_South_Dakota_Amendment_L"],"counties":{"46003":45.7,"46005":41.1,"46007":39.0,"46009":44.8,"46011":35.0,"46013":37.6,"46015":41.7,"46017":29.5,"46019":47.8,"46021":49.5,"46023":41.9,"46025":45.5,"46027":30.3,"46029":42.1,"46031":35.9,"46033":42.3,"46035":41.2,"46037":39.6,"46039":44.6,"46041":31.4,"46043":51.6,"46045":46.8,"46047":43.5,"46049":49.2,"46051":43.0,"46053":47.5,"46055":55.8,"46057":47.2,"46059":45.8,"46061":47.1,"46063":59.9,"46065":37.9,"46067":45.9,"46069":46.3,"46071":41.5,"46073":42.7,"46075":53.3,"46077":42.7,"46079":38.5,"46081":38.8,"46083":36.6,"46085":41.1,"46087":43.5,"46089":50.2,"46091":38.0,"46093":44.0,"46095":37.3,"46097":44.2,"46099":30.3,"46101":39.0,"46103":37.5,"46105":50.6,"46107":48.5,"46109":38.3,"46111":45.9,"46102":20.0,"46115":40.9,"46117":43.0,"46119":47.5,"46121":24.5,"46123":48.7,"46125":44.3,"46127":40.4,"46129":46.1,"46135":37.5,"46137":34.6},"votes":{"yes":135836,"no":224865,"total":360701}},{"id":"bm-WI-question-1","st":"WI","slug":"question-1","label":"Question 1","title":"Bar partial veto to raise taxes or fees","summary":"Bars the governor from using the partial veto to create or increase any tax or fee; it does not undo Gov. Evers' 2023 400-year school funding veto.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_sales_other","group":"taxes_sales_other","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes: Republican legislative leaders. No: Democrats and school funding advocates. No money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. Passed two consecutive legislatures.","est":{"yes":60.1,"p10":48.0,"p90":71.7,"prob":0.8555},"prior":60.1,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wpr.org/news/what-to-know-wisconsin-november-2026-referendums","https://www.somerswi.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/TYPE-A-NOTICE-OF-REFERENDUM-STATE.pdf","https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2026/01/22/senate-approves-constitutional-amendments-on-anti-dei-partial-veto-and-health-emergency-closures/"],"counties":{"55001":66.5,"55003":59.2,"55005":66.8,"55007":57.3,"55009":61.2,"55011":66.9,"55013":67.2,"55015":63.8,"55017":65.0,"55019":69.3,"55021":60.9,"55023":63.6,"55025":48.3,"55027":67.4,"55029":59.3,"55031":58.7,"55033":63.7,"55035":57.5,"55037":71.2,"55039":66.5,"55041":67.9,"55043":64.4,"55045":59.8,"55047":68.2,"55049":58.2,"55051":66.0,"55053":64.7,"55055":63.5,"55057":67.4,"55059":61.0,"55061":67.7,"55063":57.8,"55065":64.6,"55067":68.1,"55069":65.8,"55071":65.3,"55073":63.9,"55075":68.8,"55077":67.1,"55078":44.3,"55079":52.8,"55081":65.8,"55083":69.8,"55085":63.9,"55087":61.8,"55089":61.2,"55091":66.6,"55093":63.6,"55095":66.8,"55097":59.7,"55099":67.3,"55101":61.1,"55103":63.3,"55105":58.3,"55107":69.0,"55109":63.4,"55111":60.3,"55113":63.7,"55115":68.3,"55117":63.5,"55119":71.2,"55121":64.9,"55123":61.8,"55125":65.0,"55127":64.7,"55129":66.3,"55131":67.5,"55133":63.2,"55135":67.5,"55137":68.2,"55139":60.9,"55141":64.6},"votes":{"yes":1697690,"no":1127949,"total":2825639}},{"id":"bm-WI-question-2","st":"WI","slug":"question-2","label":"Question 2","title":"Bar closing places of worship during emergencies","summary":"Bars the state or local governments from closing places of worship or forbidding gatherings for worship during a state of emergency, including a public health emergency.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"civil_rights","group":"civil_rights","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes: Rep. Ron Tusler, Sen. Cory Tomczyk and GOP lawmakers. No: public health advocates and critics who call it vague. No money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority.","est":{"yes":55.8,"p10":42.5,"p90":68.8,"prob":0.7315},"prior":55.8,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wpr.org/news/what-to-know-wisconsin-november-2026-referendums","https://www.somerswi.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/TYPE-A-NOTICE-OF-REFERENDUM-STATE.pdf"],"counties":{"55001":66.5,"55003":56.6,"55005":67.0,"55007":53.4,"55009":58.8,"55011":67.3,"55013":67.4,"55015":62.9,"55017":64.6,"55019":70.9,"55021":59.1,"55023":62.7,"55025":36.5,"55027":67.9,"55029":55.9,"55031":55.9,"55033":62.0,"55035":53.3,"55037":72.9,"55039":66.6,"55041":68.7,"55043":63.1,"55045":57.6,"55047":68.9,"55049":55.3,"55051":65.7,"55053":64.5,"55055":62.3,"55057":68.0,"55059":58.2,"55061":68.4,"55063":53.6,"55065":64.2,"55067":69.2,"55069":66.1,"55071":65.1,"55073":63.1,"55075":69.8,"55077":67.8,"55078":37.1,"55079":40.1,"55081":65.9,"55083":71.5,"55085":62.8,"55087":59.9,"55089":57.9,"55091":66.9,"55093":61.9,"55095":67.2,"55097":56.5,"55099":68.1,"55101":57.8,"55103":62.4,"55105":55.1,"55107":70.0,"55109":62.0,"55111":58.2,"55113":62.4,"55115":69.4,"55117":62.3,"55119":73.3,"55121":64.8,"55123":60.4,"55125":64.1,"55127":63.4,"55129":66.3,"55131":67.6,"55133":60.9,"55135":68.3,"55137":69.0,"55139":58.3,"55141":64.3},"votes":{"yes":1577497,"no":1248140,"total":2825637}},{"id":"bm-WI-question-3","st":"WI","slug":"question-3","label":"Question 3","title":"Ban government discrimination or preferences by race or sex","summary":"Bars government entities from discriminating against or giving preferential treatment to anyone based on race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in public jobs, education, contracting and administration, effectively banning DEI preferences.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"civil_rights","group":"civil_rights","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes: Sen. Steve Nass, Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty. No: Wisconsin Democracy Campaign and civil rights advocates. No money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. AJR 102.","est":{"yes":55.8,"p10":42.3,"p90":68.2,"prob":0.7135},"prior":55.8,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wpr.org/news/what-to-know-wisconsin-november-2026-referendums","https://www.somerswi.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/TYPE-A-NOTICE-OF-REFERENDUM-STATE.pdf","https://will-law.org/will-backed-equality-amendment-on-november-2026-ballot/"],"counties":{"55001":64.7,"55003":55.2,"55005":65.5,"55007":51.5,"55009":57.6,"55011":65.7,"55013":65.6,"55015":61.5,"55017":63.2,"55019":69.7,"55021":57.6,"55023":61.0,"55025":40.7,"55027":66.6,"55029":54.1,"55031":54.4,"55033":61.5,"55035":52.7,"55037":71.2,"55039":65.3,"55041":67.2,"55043":62.3,"55045":56.0,"55047":67.5,"55049":53.7,"55051":63.9,"55053":62.9,"55055":61.1,"55057":66.5,"55059":56.9,"55061":67.0,"55063":52.9,"55065":62.7,"55067":67.6,"55069":64.5,"55071":63.6,"55073":61.7,"55075":68.2,"55077":66.1,"55078":35.9,"55079":43.9,"55081":64.5,"55083":70.0,"55085":61.0,"55087":58.6,"55089":56.5,"55091":65.3,"55093":61.1,"55095":65.7,"55097":55.8,"55099":66.4,"55101":56.4,"55103":60.7,"55105":53.7,"55107":68.5,"55109":60.6,"55111":56.7,"55113":60.6,"55115":67.9,"55117":60.9,"55119":71.9,"55121":63.3,"55123":58.8,"55125":62.3,"55127":62.4,"55129":64.6,"55131":66.2,"55133":59.5,"55135":66.9,"55137":67.3,"55139":57.2,"55141":62.8},"votes":{"yes":1577497,"no":1248141,"total":2825638}},{"id":"bm-MA-question-1","st":"MA","slug":"question-1","label":"Question 1","title":"Apply public records law to Legislature and governor","summary":"Makes most records of the governor's office and the state Legislature subject to the public records law, ending their current exclusion.","type":"initiated statute","category":"government_ethics","group":"government_ethics","lean":"none","campaign":"Backed by Auditor Diana DiZoglio's Committee for Transparency and Democracy and the Coalition for Healthy Democracy, which raised about $5.2M across Q1 and Q3; no organized opposition filed.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.","est":{"yes":75.7,"p10":71.1,"p90":80.0,"prob":1.0},"prior":62.2,"pollAvg":78.6,"pollWeight":1.93,"polls":[{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-18","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":62.2,"no":19.8,"und":17.4,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/10_20_2026_massachusetts_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":68.4},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":84,"no":6,"und":8,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll","adj":88.4},{"pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","sponsor":"CommonWealth Beacon","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-22","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":63,"no":14,"und":23,"url":"https://commonwealthbeacon.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Topline-2026-09-CWB-Ballot-Questions.pdf","adj":70.7},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-05","end":"2026-08-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":84,"no":7,"und":7,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-08-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll-0","adj":88.1}],"sources":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-Information-for-voters/2026-ballot-questions.htm","https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/there-9-ballot-questions-will-be-up-for-a-vote-in-november/","https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/massachusetts-ballot-questions-2026/4026011/","https://commonwealthbeacon.org/ballot-questions/deep-pocketed-donors-flood-the-ballot-question-field-with-cash/"],"counties":{"25001":74.8,"25003":74.3,"25005":73.5,"25007":75.6,"25009":75.2,"25011":74.2,"25013":73.6,"25015":76.7,"25017":77.0,"25019":76.4,"25021":76.7,"25023":74.7,"25025":77.1,"25027":74.7},"votes":{"yes":2033480,"no":654266,"total":2687746}},{"id":"bm-MA-question-2","st":"MA","slug":"question-2","label":"Question 2","title":"Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff","summary":"Lets Committee for Public Counsel Services employees, including public defenders, unionize and bargain collectively, and raises bar advocate pay.","type":"initiated statute","category":"labor","group":"labor","lean":"D","campaign":"Labor Unions for Public Counsel Workers Rights supports; no organized opposition filed; supporters spent at least $1M.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.","est":{"yes":63.6,"p10":58.1,"p90":69.3,"prob":0.9985},"prior":67.8,"pollAvg":62.4,"pollWeight":1.93,"polls":[{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-18","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":56.4,"no":25.2,"und":17.2,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/10_20_2026_massachusetts_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":62.9},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":53,"no":19,"und":14,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll","adj":67.1},{"pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","sponsor":"CommonWealth Beacon","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-22","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":48,"no":25,"und":26,"url":"https://commonwealthbeacon.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Topline-2026-09-CWB-Ballot-Questions.pdf","adj":57.2},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-05","end":"2026-08-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":45,"no":24,"und":18,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-08-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll-0","adj":58.6}],"sources":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-Information-for-voters/2026-ballot-questions.htm","https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/there-9-ballot-questions-will-be-up-for-a-vote-in-november/","https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/massachusetts-ballot-questions-2026/4026011/","https://commonwealthbeacon.org/ballot-questions/deep-pocketed-donors-flood-the-ballot-question-field-with-cash/","https://boston.com/news/politics/2026/08/19/poll-has-good-news-for-mass-ballot-questions-except-these-two"],"counties":{"25001":60.7,"25003":67.7,"25005":57.2,"25007":70.6,"25009":62.1,"25011":67.0,"25013":60.6,"25015":68.6,"25017":66.6,"25019":66.2,"25021":63.2,"25023":58.6,"25025":73.5,"25027":59.2},"votes":{"yes":1708075,"no":979669,"total":2687744}},{"id":"bm-MA-question-3","st":"MA","slug":"question-3","label":"Question 3","title":"Single all-party primary, top two advance","summary":"Replaces party primaries for state offices with one primary listing all candidates, with the top two finishers advancing to the general election.","type":"initiated statute","category":"elections_voting","group":"elections_voting","lean":"none","campaign":"Coalition for Healthy Democracy (Danielle Allen) spent nearly $5M, top donors Randy Peeler over $1M and Andrew Balson nearly $800K; opposed by state Democratic and Republican parties and Voter Rights MA.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.","est":{"yes":51.2,"p10":45.2,"p90":56.9,"prob":0.602},"prior":52.5,"pollAvg":50.9,"pollWeight":2.53,"polls":[{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-18","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":46.8,"no":41.4,"und":10.4,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/10_20_2026_massachusetts_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":51.0},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":49,"no":39,"und":9,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll","adj":53.6},{"pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","sponsor":"CommonWealth Beacon","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-22","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":43,"no":36,"und":20,"url":"https://commonwealthbeacon.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Topline-2026-09-CWB-Ballot-Questions.pdf","adj":50.2},{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-17","end":"2026-09-21","n":564,"pop":"LV","yes":41,"no":39,"und":19,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2007&context=survey_center_polls","adj":47.8},{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center","sponsor":"Boston Globe","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-13","end":"2026-08-16","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":40.2,"no":44.8,"und":14.8,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/8_18_2026_massachusetts_dem_primary_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":45.2},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-05","end":"2026-08-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":51,"no":32,"und":17,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-08-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll-0","adj":56.7},{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-02-12","end":"2026-02-16","n":620,"pop":"LV","yes":41,"no":null,"und":null,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1930&context=survey_center_polls","adj":null}],"sources":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-Information-for-voters/2026-ballot-questions.htm","https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/there-9-ballot-questions-will-be-up-for-a-vote-in-november/","https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/massachusetts-ballot-questions-2026/4026011/","https://commonwealthbeacon.org/ballot-questions/deep-pocketed-donors-flood-the-ballot-question-field-with-cash/","https://www.wbur.org/news/2026/09/30/ballot-questions-gun-law-primaries"],"counties":{"25001":50.6,"25003":49.7,"25005":48.5,"25007":51.7,"25009":50.7,"25011":49.6,"25013":48.5,"25015":51.6,"25017":53.0,"25019":52.5,"25021":52.7,"25023":50.1,"25025":52.5,"25027":50.0},"votes":{"yes":1376109,"no":1311638,"total":2687747}},{"id":"bm-MA-question-4","st":"MA","slug":"question-4","label":"Question 4","title":"Election Day voter registration","summary":"Lets eligible residents register to vote or update their registration at the polls on Election Day and during early voting.","type":"initiated statute","category":"elections_voting","group":"elections_voting","lean":"D","campaign":"YES on Election Day Registration, a push led by Secretary of State Bill Galvin, about $156K total activity; Massachusetts Republican Party opposes.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.","est":{"yes":64.0,"p10":58.4,"p90":69.4,"prob":0.9995},"prior":64.7,"pollAvg":63.8,"pollWeight":2.35,"polls":[{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-18","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":59.2,"no":32.8,"und":6.4,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/10_20_2026_massachusetts_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":62.3},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":67,"no":26,"und":6,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll","adj":69.7},{"pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","sponsor":"CommonWealth Beacon","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-22","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":53,"no":33,"und":14,"url":"https://commonwealthbeacon.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Topline-2026-09-CWB-Ballot-Questions.pdf","adj":57.7},{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-17","end":"2026-09-21","n":564,"pop":"LV","yes":59,"no":38,"und":4,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2007&context=survey_center_polls","adj":59.7},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-05","end":"2026-08-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":69,"no":22,"und":5,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-08-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll-0","adj":73.6},{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-02-12","end":"2026-02-16","n":620,"pop":"LV","yes":61,"no":21,"und":17,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1930&context=survey_center_polls","adj":67.3}],"sources":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-Information-for-voters/2026-ballot-questions.htm","https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/there-9-ballot-questions-will-be-up-for-a-vote-in-november/","https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/massachusetts-ballot-questions-2026/4026011/","https://commonwealthbeacon.org/ballot-questions/deep-pocketed-donors-flood-the-ballot-question-field-with-cash/"],"counties":{"25001":61.5,"25003":65.9,"25005":53.4,"25007":71.9,"25009":61.6,"25011":65.1,"25013":56.1,"25015":69.7,"25017":69.8,"25019":68.5,"25021":66.6,"25023":57.8,"25025":74.6,"25027":57.8},"votes":{"yes":1719497,"no":968246,"total":2687743}},{"id":"bm-MA-question-5","st":"MA","slug":"question-5","label":"Question 5","title":"Change state revenue cap and rebate excess","summary":"Bases the state tax revenue limit on prior year actual net state revenue plus wage and salary growth and rebates revenue above the limit to taxpayers.","type":"initiated statute","category":"taxes_income","group":"taxes_income","lean":"R","campaign":"Massachusetts Opportunity Alliance business coalition (Taxpayers for an Affordable Massachusetts) about $1.9M in-kind; labor unions (Protect Massachusetts' Future) over $700K opposing.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.","est":{"yes":56.2,"p10":49.8,"p90":62.3,"prob":0.8945},"prior":45.2,"pollAvg":59.0,"pollWeight":1.93,"polls":[{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-18","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":40.0,"no":37.6,"und":19.8,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/10_20_2026_massachusetts_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":47.8},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":58,"no":20,"und":13,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll","adj":68.5},{"pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","sponsor":"CommonWealth Beacon","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-22","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":47,"no":26,"und":25,"url":"https://commonwealthbeacon.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Topline-2026-09-CWB-Ballot-Questions.pdf","adj":56.5},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-05","end":"2026-08-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":59,"no":14,"und":16,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-08-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll-0","adj":72.3}],"sources":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-Information-for-voters/2026-ballot-questions.htm","https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/there-9-ballot-questions-will-be-up-for-a-vote-in-november/","https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/massachusetts-ballot-questions-2026/4026011/","https://commonwealthbeacon.org/ballot-questions/deep-pocketed-donors-flood-the-ballot-question-field-with-cash/"],"counties":{"25001":58.6,"25003":53.9,"25005":63.3,"25007":49.1,"25009":58.0,"25011":54.3,"25013":61.7,"25015":52.0,"25017":51.9,"25019":52.9,"25021":54.9,"25023":61.0,"25025":48.1,"25027":60.7},"votes":{"yes":1509906,"no":1177837,"total":2687743}},{"id":"bm-MA-question-6","st":"MA","slug":"question-6","label":"Question 6","title":"Create Nature for All conservation fund","summary":"Creates a Nature for All Fund for conservation and recreation, dedicating sales tax revenue from certain sporting goods, recreational vehicles and golf courses, roughly $65M a year.","type":"initiated statute","category":"environment_energy","group":"environment_energy","lean":"D","campaign":"Led by Mass Audubon; no organized opposition filed; supporters spent at least $1M.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.","est":{"yes":66.1,"p10":60.8,"p90":71.2,"prob":1.0},"prior":65.1,"pollAvg":66.4,"pollWeight":2.34,"polls":[{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-18","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":48.6,"no":38.6,"und":11.2,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/10_20_2026_massachusetts_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":53.2},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":70,"no":19,"und":8,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll","adj":74.9},{"pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","sponsor":"CommonWealth Beacon","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-22","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":56,"no":24,"und":20,"url":"https://commonwealthbeacon.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Topline-2026-09-CWB-Ballot-Questions.pdf","adj":62.7},{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-17","end":"2026-09-21","n":564,"pop":"LV","yes":69,"no":15,"und":16,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2007&context=survey_center_polls","adj":74.3},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-05","end":"2026-08-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":67,"no":22,"und":8,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-08-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll-0","adj":71.8}],"sources":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-Information-for-voters/2026-ballot-questions.htm","https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/there-9-ballot-questions-will-be-up-for-a-vote-in-november/","https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/massachusetts-ballot-questions-2026/4026011/","https://commonwealthbeacon.org/ballot-questions/deep-pocketed-donors-flood-the-ballot-question-field-with-cash/"],"counties":{"25001":64.1,"25003":64.0,"25005":56.1,"25007":70.1,"25009":64.2,"25011":63.2,"25013":58.4,"25015":72.3,"25017":72.1,"25019":66.0,"25021":68.8,"25023":60.2,"25025":75.8,"25027":60.5},"votes":{"yes":1777883,"no":909862,"total":2687745}},{"id":"bm-MA-question-7","st":"MA","slug":"question-7","label":"Question 7","title":"Allow single-family homes on smaller lots","summary":"Requires municipalities to allow single-family homes on residential lots of at least 5,000 square feet with 50 feet of frontage served by public water and sewer; Boston excluded.","type":"initiated statute","category":"housing","group":"housing","lean":"none","campaign":"Legalize Starter Homes supports, spent at least $1M; Massachusetts Municipal Association opposes.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.","est":{"yes":60.3,"p10":54.5,"p90":65.8,"prob":0.991},"prior":54.7,"pollAvg":61.7,"pollWeight":2.34,"polls":[{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-18","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":41.2,"no":40.6,"und":16.4,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/10_20_2026_massachusetts_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":47.5},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":65,"no":21,"und":10,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll","adj":71.2},{"pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","sponsor":"CommonWealth Beacon","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-22","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":51,"no":24,"und":24,"url":"https://commonwealthbeacon.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Topline-2026-09-CWB-Ballot-Questions.pdf","adj":59.6},{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-17","end":"2026-09-21","n":564,"pop":"LV","yes":59,"no":14,"und":26,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2007&context=survey_center_polls","adj":68.4},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-05","end":"2026-08-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":59,"no":21,"und":14,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-08-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll-0","adj":67.7},{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-02-12","end":"2026-02-16","n":620,"pop":"LV","yes":36,"no":null,"und":null,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1930&context=survey_center_polls","adj":null}],"sources":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-Information-for-voters/2026-ballot-questions.htm","https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/there-9-ballot-questions-will-be-up-for-a-vote-in-november/","https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/massachusetts-ballot-questions-2026/4026011/","https://commonwealthbeacon.org/ballot-questions/deep-pocketed-donors-flood-the-ballot-question-field-with-cash/"],"counties":{"25001":57.8,"25003":65.8,"25005":56.6,"25007":67.3,"25009":59.1,"25011":65.5,"25013":57.7,"25015":63.6,"25017":62.2,"25019":65.8,"25021":60.4,"25023":57.5,"25025":65.2,"25027":57.9},"votes":{"yes":1621147,"no":1066599,"total":2687746}},{"id":"bm-MA-question-8","st":"MA","slug":"question-8","label":"Question 8","title":"Repeal recreational marijuana sales","summary":"Prohibits retail sales of recreational marijuana, repeals home cultivation, and sets new possession limits and civil penalties; medical marijuana unaffected.","type":"initiated statute","category":"marijuana","group":"marijuana","lean":"R","campaign":"Coalition For a Healthy Massachusetts funded mostly by SAM Action Inc. (nearly $3.2M); Massachusetts Cannabis Coalition and industry opposing with almost $1.6M.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.","est":{"yes":28.4,"p10":23.8,"p90":33.5,"prob":0.0},"prior":30.4,"pollAvg":27.9,"pollWeight":2.54,"polls":[{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-18","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":21.4,"no":71.4,"und":5.8,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/10_20_2026_massachusetts_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":23.7},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":31,"no":61,"und":5,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll","adj":33.7},{"pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","sponsor":"CommonWealth Beacon","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-22","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":27,"no":61,"und":11,"url":"https://commonwealthbeacon.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Topline-2026-09-CWB-Ballot-Questions.pdf","adj":31.0},{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-17","end":"2026-09-21","n":564,"pop":"LV","yes":24,"no":71,"und":5,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2007&context=survey_center_polls","adj":25.7},{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center","sponsor":"Boston Globe","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-13","end":"2026-08-16","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":16.2,"no":79.0,"und":4.4,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/8_18_2026_massachusetts_dem_primary_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":17.7},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-05","end":"2026-08-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":33,"no":55,"und":10,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-08-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll-0","adj":37.1},{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-02-12","end":"2026-02-16","n":620,"pop":"LV","yes":20,"no":63,"und":16,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1930&context=survey_center_polls","adj":25.6}],"sources":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-Information-for-voters/2026-ballot-questions.htm","https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/there-9-ballot-questions-will-be-up-for-a-vote-in-november/","https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/massachusetts-ballot-questions-2026/4026011/","https://commonwealthbeacon.org/ballot-questions/deep-pocketed-donors-flood-the-ballot-question-field-with-cash/","https://www.marijuanamoment.net/another-poll-shows-massachusetts-voters-dont-want-to-reverse-marijuana-legalization/"],"counties":{"25001":35.8,"25003":30.4,"25005":36.4,"25007":26.7,"25009":30.5,"25011":30.9,"25013":34.1,"25015":21.8,"25017":23.3,"25019":27.2,"25021":26.8,"25023":34.0,"25025":17.6,"25027":32.7},"votes":{"yes":763154,"no":1924592,"total":2687746}},{"id":"bm-MA-question-9","st":"MA","slug":"question-9","label":"Question 9","title":"Keep or repeal 2024 gun law","summary":"A Yes vote keeps the 2024 firearms law (H.4885), which expanded the assault-style firearm ban and other rules; a No vote repeals it.","type":"veto referendum","category":"guns","group":"guns","lean":"D","campaign":"Vote Yes for a Safe Massachusetts supports keeping the law; The Civil Rights Coalition (gun rights groups) leads repeal.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots","ruleNote":"Referendum on existing law: the law is repealed only if No wins a majority AND No votes are at least 30 percent of all ballots cast; Yes keeps the law.","est":{"yes":68.1,"p10":62.7,"p90":73.0,"prob":0.9995},"prior":73.3,"pollAvg":66.8,"pollWeight":2.34,"polls":[{"pollster":"Suffolk University Political Research Center / The Boston Globe","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-14","end":"2026-10-18","n":500,"pop":"LV","yes":57.2,"no":31.4,"und":9.8,"url":"https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/massachusetts2/2026/10_20_2026_massachusetts_statewide_marginals.pdf","adj":61.4},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":70,"no":21,"und":7,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll","adj":73.8},{"pollster":"MassINC Polling Group","sponsor":"CommonWealth Beacon","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-22","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":70,"no":18,"und":11,"url":"https://commonwealthbeacon.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Topline-2026-09-CWB-Ballot-Questions.pdf","adj":74.4},{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-17","end":"2026-09-21","n":564,"pop":"LV","yes":38,"no":27,"und":35,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2007&context=survey_center_polls","adj":49.7},{"pollster":"UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"WCVB","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-05","end":"2026-08-12","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":70,"no":22,"und":5,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-08-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll-0","adj":73.9}],"sources":["https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/2026-Information-for-voters/2026-ballot-questions.htm","https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/there-9-ballot-questions-will-be-up-for-a-vote-in-november/","https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/massachusetts-ballot-questions-2026/4026011/","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/430214"],"counties":{"25001":66.8,"25003":64.9,"25005":58.8,"25007":71.1,"25009":66.5,"25011":64.2,"25013":61.1,"25015":73.5,"25017":73.7,"25019":66.2,"25021":70.5,"25023":62.6,"25025":77.2,"25027":62.7},"votes":{"yes":1830710,"no":857032,"total":2687742}},{"id":"bm-MD-question-1","st":"MD","slug":"question-1","label":"Question 1","title":"Require budget to fund state worker contracts","summary":"Requires the governor's budget to fully fund state employee collective bargaining agreements, including terms set by a neutral arbitrator (HB 604, Arbitration Reform for State Employees Act of 2026).","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"labor","group":"labor","lean":"D","campaign":"Backed by state employee unions; no organized campaign or money reported in sources reviewed.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority.","est":{"yes":75.4,"p10":63.8,"p90":84.1,"prob":0.9945},"prior":75.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/ballot_questions.html","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/maryland"],"counties":{"24001":55.4,"24003":70.6,"24005":74.4,"24009":64.0,"24011":57.3,"24013":58.5,"24015":58.0,"24017":81.0,"24019":65.4,"24021":68.7,"24023":48.5,"24025":62.9,"24027":76.8,"24029":65.9,"24031":80.3,"24033":90.3,"24035":58.0,"24037":62.4,"24039":66.0,"24041":66.2,"24043":61.4,"24045":67.6,"24047":60.2,"24510":88.9},"votes":{"yes":1774514,"no":579915,"total":2354429}},{"id":"bm-MD-question-2","st":"MD","slug":"question-2","label":"Question 2","title":"Temporary appointments to judicial disabilities commission","summary":"Allows temporary substitute or recalled members on the Commission on Judicial Disabilities when a member is recused or a term expires.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"none","campaign":"No organized campaign reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority.","est":{"yes":63.4,"p10":50.7,"p90":74.8,"prob":0.9105},"prior":63.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/ballot_questions.html"],"counties":{"24001":57.8,"24003":63.7,"24005":63.0,"24009":61.4,"24011":56.7,"24013":62.1,"24015":59.4,"24017":60.9,"24019":57.4,"24021":63.6,"24023":58.7,"24025":62.2,"24027":67.5,"24029":62.0,"24031":67.4,"24033":62.4,"24035":61.5,"24037":61.6,"24039":57.7,"24041":62.4,"24043":58.6,"24045":60.2,"24047":60.7,"24510":62.4},"votes":{"yes":1493024,"no":861400,"total":2354424}},{"id":"bm-MD-question-3","st":"MD","slug":"question-3","label":"Question 3","title":"Remove constitutional limits on congressional districting","summary":"Limits districting requirements to state legislative districts, sets no constitutional criteria for congressional maps, and lets the General Assembly give the Supreme Court of Maryland original jurisdiction over congressional map challenges; enables mid-decade congressional redistricting.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"redistricting","group":"redistricting","lean":"D","campaign":"Fight Back Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore, Democrats and unions support; Protect Maryland Votes (spokesman Doug Mayer) opposes; passed in August 2026 special session; no money totals found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. Ballot text rewritten by Supreme Court of Maryland order of Sept 3, 2026.","est":{"yes":46.0,"p10":39.2,"p90":53.1,"prob":0.242},"prior":69.4,"pollAvg":37.0,"pollWeight":0.96,"polls":[{"pollster":"UMBC Institute of Politics","sponsor":"none (UMBC)","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-22","end":"2026-09-27","n":776,"pop":"LV","yes":25,"no":53,"und":19,"url":"https://marylandmatters.org/2026/10/07/poll-voters-oppose-redistricting-ballot-question-when-presented-meat-of-the-political-outcome/","adj":32.3},{"pollster":"Ragnar Research Partners (R) and Lincoln Park Strategies (D)","sponsor":"Protect Maryland Votes","side":"no","start":"2026-09-10","end":"2026-09-13","n":600,"pop":"LV","yes":28,"no":40,"und":31,"url":"https://marylandmatters.org/2026/09/24/poll-wording-of-redistricting-amendment-difficult-for-voters-to-understand/","adj":42.7},{"pollster":"Hart Research Associates","sponsor":"Fight Back Maryland","side":"yes","start":"2026-09-08","end":"2026-09-10","n":600,"pop":"LV","yes":40,"no":35,"und":25,"url":"https://marylandmatters.org/2026/09/24/poll-wording-of-redistricting-amendment-difficult-for-voters-to-understand/","adj":44.3}],"sources":["https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/ballot_questions.html","https://marylandmatters.org/2026/10/07/poll-voters-oppose-redistricting-ballot-question-when-presented-meat-of-the-political-outcome/","https://www.nbcwashington.com/decision-2026/maryland-redistricting-enters-the-spotlight-ahead-of-november-election/4164714/"],"counties":{"24001":14.7,"24003":36.9,"24005":40.3,"24009":25.5,"24011":14.4,"24013":21.9,"24015":18.0,"24017":44.7,"24019":20.9,"24021":34.8,"24023":11.7,"24025":25.4,"24027":54.4,"24029":29.2,"24031":60.3,"24033":69.0,"24035":20.5,"24037":23.8,"24039":20.6,"24041":30.4,"24043":19.6,"24045":26.4,"24047":21.7,"24510":67.3},"votes":{"yes":1083806,"no":1270624,"total":2354430}},{"id":"bm-NH-question-1","st":"NH","slug":"question-1","label":"Question 1","title":"Eliminate elected register of probate office","summary":"Removes the register of probate from the constitution's list of elected county officers (CACR 13).","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"none","campaign":"Passed House 325-15 and Senate 23-1; no organized campaign.","threshold":0.6667,"thresholdNote":"67 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Two thirds of those voting on the question. A similar 2022 amendment got 62.9 percent and failed.","est":{"yes":63.4,"p10":49.8,"p90":74.5,"prob":0.362},"prior":63.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/03/31/new-hampshire-voters-to-decide-amendment-to-eliminate-register-of-probate-references-from-state-constitution-similar-measure-failed-two-thirds-requirement-in-2022","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/new-hampshire"],"counties":{"33001":62.2,"33003":62.7,"33005":62.6,"33007":60.2,"33009":64.2,"33011":63.7,"33013":63.2,"33015":64.0,"33017":63.3,"33019":61.8},"votes":{"yes":410816,"no":237022,"total":647838}},{"id":"bm-VT-proposal-3","st":"VT","slug":"proposal-3","label":"Proposal 3","title":"Constitutional right to collective bargaining","summary":"Adds a constitutional right for employees to organize and bargain collectively, barring laws that interfere with it, effectively banning right-to-work laws.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"labor","group":"labor","lean":"D","campaign":"Yes on 3 (Rep. Conor Casey) and Vermont AFL-CIO support; Right for Vermont Foundation opposes; no money totals reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority.","est":{"yes":71.8,"p10":65.0,"p90":77.8,"prob":1.0},"prior":75.7,"pollAvg":69.3,"pollWeight":0.5,"polls":[{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Green Mountain State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-17","end":"2026-09-21","n":835,"pop":"LV","yes":65,"no":22,"und":13,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2005&amp=&context=survey_center_polls","adj":69.3},{"pollster":"Jim Eltringham","sponsor":"Fiscal Alliance Foundation","side":"no","start":null,"end":null,"n":600,"pop":null,"yes":27,"no":55,"und":null,"url":"https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/03/new-poll-shows-vermonters-affordability-concerns-cross-party-lines/","adj":37.0}],"sources":["https://www.wcax.com/2026/07/28/vermont-voters-consider-2-constitutional-amendments-november-ballot/","https://vtdigger.org/2026/09/07/vermonters-will-vote-on-constitutional-amendment-enshrining-labor-protections-in-november/","https://www.sevendaysvt.com/guides/electionvoterguide/vermonters-will-vote-on-two-constitutional-amendments-this-fall/"],"counties":{"50001":73.0,"50003":69.0,"50005":66.9,"50007":77.6,"50009":59.3,"50011":64.6,"50013":68.3,"50015":72.6,"50017":68.6,"50019":63.1,"50021":64.7,"50023":74.6,"50025":74.5,"50027":72.5},"votes":{"yes":222235,"no":87233,"total":309468}},{"id":"bm-VT-proposal-4","st":"VT","slug":"proposal-4","label":"Proposal 4","title":"Constitutional equal protection guarantee","summary":"Bars the state from denying equal treatment based on race, sex, religion, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity and other traits, while allowing measures for historically disadvantaged groups.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"civil_rights","group":"civil_rights","lean":"D","campaign":"Backed by Democratic legislators and the Vermont Human Rights Commission; small opposition group noprop4vt.org.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority.","est":{"yes":74.9,"p10":68.4,"p90":80.3,"prob":1.0},"prior":78.3,"pollAvg":72.7,"pollWeight":0.5,"polls":[{"pollster":"UNH Survey Center (Green Mountain State Poll)","sponsor":"none (UNH)","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-17","end":"2026-09-21","n":835,"pop":"LV","yes":69,"no":21,"und":9,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2005&amp=&context=survey_center_polls","adj":72.7}],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/14/vermont-constitutional-amendment-on-equal-protection-of-the-law-headed-to-november-ballot/","https://www.sevendaysvt.com/guides/electionvoterguide/vermonters-will-vote-on-two-constitutional-amendments-this-fall/"],"counties":{"50001":75.9,"50003":72.3,"50005":68.7,"50007":81.8,"50009":58.9,"50011":65.6,"50013":72.0,"50015":76.0,"50017":71.2,"50019":64.5,"50021":67.0,"50023":78.4,"50025":77.8,"50027":75.7},"votes":{"yes":231865,"no":77601,"total":309466}},{"id":"bm-RI-question-1","st":"RI","slug":"question-1","label":"Question 1","title":"$275M higher education facilities bond","summary":"Authorizes $275M in bonds: $165M URI Integrated Health Building, $50M RIC Adams Library, $60M CCRI Workforce Innovation Center.","type":"bond","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"Placed by the FY2027 budget signed June 12, 2026; no organized opposition or polling found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of those voting on the question. Question numbers follow the enacted budget (H 7127, Article 5) order; confirm against the official ballot.","est":{"yes":66.3,"p10":52.8,"p90":76.7,"prob":0.937},"prior":66.3,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/PublicLaws/law26/law26084-05.htm","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/16/rhode-island-voters-will-weigh-in-on-five-bond-issues-in-nov-2026-included-in-the-states-budget"],"counties":{"44001":68.8,"44003":64.2,"44005":68.4,"44007":65.9,"44009":67.4},"votes":{"yes":265179,"no":135271,"total":400450}},{"id":"bm-RI-question-2","st":"RI","slug":"question-2","label":"Question 2","title":"$120M housing and homeownership bond","summary":"Authorizes $120M in bonds for affordable and accessible housing, with at least $25M for homeownership.","type":"bond","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"Placed by the FY2027 budget signed June 12, 2026; no organized opposition or polling found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of those voting on the question. Question numbers follow the enacted budget (H 7127, Article 5) order; confirm against the official ballot.","est":{"yes":66.3,"p10":53.5,"p90":77.0,"prob":0.948},"prior":66.3,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/PublicLaws/law26/law26084-05.htm","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/16/rhode-island-voters-will-weigh-in-on-five-bond-issues-in-nov-2026-included-in-the-states-budget"],"counties":{"44001":68.8,"44003":64.0,"44005":68.2,"44007":66.0,"44009":67.6},"votes":{"yes":265180,"no":135269,"total":400449}},{"id":"bm-RI-question-3","st":"RI","slug":"question-3","label":"Question 3","title":"$100M economic development bond","summary":"Authorizes $100M in bonds: $55M site development including Quonset and I-195 District, $45M growth industry infrastructure.","type":"bond","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"Placed by the FY2027 budget signed June 12, 2026; no organized opposition or polling found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of those voting on the question. Question numbers follow the enacted budget (H 7127, Article 5) order; confirm against the official ballot.","est":{"yes":66.3,"p10":53.9,"p90":77.2,"prob":0.9505},"prior":66.3,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/PublicLaws/law26/law26084-05.htm","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/16/rhode-island-voters-will-weigh-in-on-five-bond-issues-in-nov-2026-included-in-the-states-budget"],"counties":{"44001":68.8,"44003":64.2,"44005":68.4,"44007":65.9,"44009":67.4},"votes":{"yes":265179,"no":135271,"total":400450}},{"id":"bm-RI-question-4","st":"RI","slug":"question-4","label":"Question 4","title":"$50M cultural economy bond","summary":"Authorizes $50M in bonds: $45M new State History Center, $5M historic preservation grants.","type":"bond","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"Placed by the FY2027 budget signed June 12, 2026; no organized opposition or polling found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of those voting on the question. Question numbers follow the enacted budget (H 7127, Article 5) order; confirm against the official ballot.","est":{"yes":66.3,"p10":53.1,"p90":76.6,"prob":0.94},"prior":66.3,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/PublicLaws/law26/law26084-05.htm","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/16/rhode-island-voters-will-weigh-in-on-five-bond-issues-in-nov-2026-included-in-the-states-budget"],"counties":{"44001":68.8,"44003":64.2,"44005":68.4,"44007":65.9,"44009":67.4},"votes":{"yes":265179,"no":135271,"total":400450}},{"id":"bm-RI-question-5","st":"RI","slug":"question-5","label":"Question 5","title":"$55M green economy bond","summary":"Authorizes $55M in bonds for resilience, brownfields, recreation, Narragansett Bay, farmland and open space.","type":"bond","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"Placed by the FY2027 budget signed June 12, 2026; no organized opposition or polling found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of those voting on the question. Question numbers follow the enacted budget (H 7127, Article 5) order; confirm against the official ballot.","est":{"yes":66.3,"p10":54.0,"p90":77.5,"prob":0.9495},"prior":66.3,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/PublicLaws/law26/law26084-05.htm","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/16/rhode-island-voters-will-weigh-in-on-five-bond-issues-in-nov-2026-included-in-the-states-budget"],"counties":{"44001":68.8,"44003":64.2,"44005":68.4,"44007":65.9,"44009":67.4},"votes":{"yes":265179,"no":135271,"total":400450}},{"id":"bm-DC-initiative-86","st":"DC","slug":"initiative-86","label":"Initiative 86","title":"Ban sale of force-fed foie gras","summary":"Prohibits selling foie gras produced by force-feeding birds in the District, effective July 1, 2027.","type":"initiated statute","category":"animal","group":"animal","lean":"none","campaign":"Pro-Animal DC; 31,726 valid signatures of 46,020 submitted (23,940 needed), certified Aug 5, 2026; no organized opposition or money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority.","est":{"yes":57.4,"p10":44.0,"p90":69.8,"prob":0.7665},"prior":57.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.popville.com/2026/08/force-fed-foie-gras-prohibition-dc-i86-qualifies-for-nov-ballot/"],"counties":{"DC-DISTRICT_OF_COLUMBIA":57.4},"votes":{"yes":127678,"no":94586,"total":222264}},{"id":"bm-AL-statewide-amendment-1","st":"AL","slug":"statewide-amendment-1","label":"Statewide Amendment 1","title":"Lieutenant governor vacancies and legislative officer pay","summary":"Provides an election to fill a lieutenant governor vacancy early in a term, lets the Legislature set pay for the lieutenant governor and legislative officers by joint resolution, and requires a legislative officer to approve legislative travel spending.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"government_ethics","group":"government_ethics","lean":"none","campaign":"Sponsored by Sen. Sam Givhan R; passed both chambers unanimously; no organized campaign reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":69.0,"p10":56.5,"p90":79.6,"prob":0.972},"prior":69.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://alabamareflector.com/2026/08/05/alabamians-to-vote-on-four-statewide-constitutional-amendments-in-november/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/alabama","https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/election-2026/2026GeneralElectionStateCertificationofConstitutionalAmendments.pdf"],"counties":{"01001":68.5,"01003":68.8,"01005":65.7,"01007":65.9,"01009":66.4,"01011":65.3,"01013":65.9,"01015":67.4,"01017":66.2,"01019":66.1,"01021":66.6,"01023":66.2,"01025":66.3,"01027":66.1,"01029":66.4,"01031":67.5,"01033":67.1,"01035":65.8,"01037":65.6,"01039":66.4,"01041":66.8,"01043":66.9,"01045":67.2,"01047":66.6,"01049":66.3,"01051":68.0,"01053":66.1,"01055":66.6,"01057":66.1,"01059":66.6,"01061":65.8,"01063":66.2,"01065":66.7,"01067":67.1,"01069":67.6,"01071":66.2,"01073":73.8,"01075":65.5,"01077":68.6,"01079":66.2,"01081":71.1,"01083":68.6,"01085":66.3,"01087":68.0,"01089":71.0,"01091":66.9,"01093":65.8,"01095":67.4,"01097":68.1,"01099":65.8,"01101":69.5,"01103":67.7,"01105":66.7,"01107":66.2,"01109":69.5,"01111":66.7,"01113":66.9,"01115":67.2,"01117":70.9,"01119":67.9,"01121":66.5,"01123":66.9,"01125":69.9,"01127":66.4,"01129":66.6,"01131":66.0,"01133":65.9},"votes":{"yes":1112895,"no":500051,"total":1612946}},{"id":"bm-AL-statewide-amendment-2","st":"AL","slug":"statewide-amendment-2","label":"Statewide Amendment 2","title":"Process for merging county school systems","summary":"Creates a constitutional process for merging neighboring county school systems, with a State Board of Education impact study and a protest and referendum procedure.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"education","group":"education","lean":"none","campaign":"Sponsored by Rep. Terri Collins R; passed House 96 to 2 and Senate unanimously; no organized campaign reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":60.4,"p10":47.3,"p90":72.5,"prob":0.848},"prior":60.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://alabamareflector.com/2026/08/05/alabamians-to-vote-on-four-statewide-constitutional-amendments-in-november/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/alabama","https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/election-2026/2026GeneralElectionStateCertificationofConstitutionalAmendments.pdf"],"counties":{"01001":58.3,"01003":56.8,"01005":59.7,"01007":53.8,"01009":50.4,"01011":65.4,"01013":59.1,"01015":57.8,"01017":59.3,"01019":51.6,"01021":52.9,"01023":59.2,"01025":60.1,"01027":52.8,"01029":49.6,"01031":56.0,"01033":57.3,"01035":60.0,"01037":56.5,"01039":52.6,"01041":56.0,"01043":51.0,"01045":56.7,"01047":65.0,"01049":52.2,"01051":57.3,"01053":56.5,"01055":55.7,"01057":52.5,"01059":52.6,"01061":51.1,"01063":67.5,"01065":62.6,"01067":56.7,"01069":57.4,"01071":52.6,"01073":69.6,"01075":51.1,"01077":57.9,"01079":54.4,"01081":62.9,"01083":58.6,"01085":65.3,"01087":69.3,"01089":64.3,"01091":61.7,"01093":49.7,"01095":53.5,"01097":61.4,"01099":59.0,"01101":66.9,"01103":56.9,"01105":66.4,"01107":59.3,"01109":62.3,"01111":54.4,"01113":62.1,"01115":54.7,"01117":60.8,"01119":67.5,"01121":58.3,"01123":56.7,"01125":62.8,"01127":52.8,"01129":55.8,"01131":64.6,"01133":49.2},"votes":{"yes":974414,"no":638532,"total":1612946}},{"id":"bm-AL-statewide-amendment-3","st":"AL","slug":"statewide-amendment-3","label":"Statewide Amendment 3","title":"Daily Pledge and student led prayer in schools","summary":"Requires local school boards to adopt policies for a daily Pledge of Allegiance in public K to 12 schools and authorizes policies allowing student initiated, student led prayer.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"education","group":"education","lean":"R","campaign":"Sponsored by Rep. Reed Ingram R; passed House 94 to 4 and Senate unanimously; no organized campaign reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":65.8,"p10":52.8,"p90":76.8,"prob":0.9405},"prior":65.8,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://alabamareflector.com/2026/08/05/alabamians-to-vote-on-four-statewide-constitutional-amendments-in-november/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/alabama","https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/election-2026/2026GeneralElectionStateCertificationofConstitutionalAmendments.pdf"],"counties":{"01001":68.1,"01003":71.0,"01005":59.6,"01007":70.9,"01009":76.9,"01011":46.3,"01013":61.3,"01015":67.1,"01017":61.7,"01019":74.5,"01021":73.7,"01023":61.7,"01025":60.6,"01027":72.6,"01029":78.0,"01031":70.2,"01033":67.2,"01035":59.6,"01037":65.3,"01039":73.6,"01041":68.9,"01043":77.0,"01045":68.7,"01047":50.7,"01049":74.2,"01051":69.2,"01053":66.5,"01055":69.1,"01057":73.4,"01059":74.1,"01061":74.9,"01063":44.7,"01065":56.1,"01067":68.2,"01069":67.8,"01071":73.2,"01073":62.6,"01075":74.4,"01077":69.6,"01079":70.5,"01081":66.6,"01083":67.6,"01085":49.3,"01087":46.4,"01089":62.5,"01091":58.4,"01093":76.8,"01095":74.1,"01097":61.8,"01099":61.4,"01101":53.4,"01103":69.0,"01105":48.7,"01107":61.7,"01109":65.2,"01111":71.6,"01113":57.2,"01115":71.6,"01117":68.6,"01119":50.4,"01121":64.0,"01123":67.8,"01125":64.3,"01127":73.5,"01129":69.0,"01131":50.6,"01133":77.7},"votes":{"yes":1061426,"no":551528,"total":1612954}},{"id":"bm-AL-statewide-amendment-4","st":"AL","slug":"statewide-amendment-4","label":"Statewide Amendment 4","title":"Weekly national anthem in public schools","summary":"Requires local school boards to adopt policies for each public K to 12 school to play or perform the first stanza of the Star Spangled Banner at least once a week.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"education","group":"education","lean":"R","campaign":"Sponsored by Sen. Gerald Allen R; passed Senate 22 to 5 and House 75 to 27; no organized campaign reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":65.8,"p10":52.7,"p90":76.6,"prob":0.9435},"prior":65.8,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://alabamareflector.com/2026/08/05/alabamians-to-vote-on-four-statewide-constitutional-amendments-in-november/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/alabama","https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/election-2026/2026GeneralElectionStateCertificationofConstitutionalAmendments.pdf"],"counties":{"01001":68.1,"01003":71.0,"01005":59.6,"01007":70.9,"01009":76.9,"01011":46.3,"01013":61.3,"01015":67.1,"01017":61.7,"01019":74.5,"01021":73.7,"01023":61.7,"01025":60.6,"01027":72.6,"01029":78.0,"01031":70.2,"01033":67.2,"01035":59.6,"01037":65.3,"01039":73.6,"01041":68.9,"01043":77.0,"01045":68.7,"01047":50.7,"01049":74.2,"01051":69.2,"01053":66.5,"01055":69.1,"01057":73.4,"01059":74.1,"01061":74.9,"01063":44.7,"01065":56.1,"01067":68.2,"01069":67.8,"01071":73.2,"01073":62.6,"01075":74.4,"01077":69.6,"01079":70.5,"01081":66.6,"01083":67.6,"01085":49.3,"01087":46.4,"01089":62.5,"01091":58.4,"01093":76.8,"01095":74.1,"01097":61.8,"01099":61.4,"01101":53.4,"01103":69.0,"01105":48.7,"01107":61.7,"01109":65.2,"01111":71.6,"01113":57.2,"01115":71.6,"01117":68.6,"01119":50.4,"01121":64.0,"01123":67.8,"01125":64.3,"01127":73.5,"01129":69.0,"01131":50.6,"01133":77.7},"votes":{"yes":1061426,"no":551528,"total":1612954}},{"id":"bm-AR-issue-1","st":"AR","slug":"issue-1","label":"Issue 1","title":"Only U.S. citizens may vote","summary":"Amends the constitution so only U.S. citizens who meet state qualifications may vote in state and local elections in Arkansas.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"citizen_voting","lean":"R","campaign":"Legislative referral; critics cited by the UA Public Policy Center say it could lead to stricter proof of citizenship rules; no campaign money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":76.1,"p10":68.4,"p90":82.5,"prob":1.0},"prior":85.0,"pollAvg":64.3,"pollWeight":0.27,"polls":[{"pollster":"Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll","sponsor":"Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-11","end":"2026-08-12","n":1217,"pop":"LV","yes":60,"no":27,"und":13,"url":"https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-voters-weigh-in-on-4-ballot-proposals/","adj":64.3}],"sources":["https://www.axios.com/local/nw-arkansas/2026/10/13/ballot-initiatives-arkansas-2026-guide","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/arkansas","https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-voters-weigh-in-on-4-ballot-proposals/","https://www.uaex.uada.edu/business-communities/voter-education/docs/2026-Arkansas-Ballot-Issues-Voter-Guide.pdf"],"counties":{"05001":81.7,"05003":82.7,"05005":84.8,"05007":73.8,"05009":87.2,"05011":79.6,"05013":86.2,"05015":77.3,"05017":67.3,"05019":73.9,"05021":86.4,"05023":88.0,"05025":87.8,"05027":78.7,"05029":80.2,"05031":78.4,"05033":85.0,"05035":68.2,"05037":82.5,"05039":78.1,"05041":70.6,"05043":77.6,"05045":76.5,"05047":86.8,"05049":86.5,"05051":78.5,"05053":88.0,"05055":86.1,"05057":79.8,"05059":83.6,"05061":81.9,"05063":85.5,"05065":87.4,"05067":82.8,"05069":62.2,"05071":83.1,"05073":80.8,"05075":87.2,"05077":69.2,"05079":83.3,"05081":84.1,"05083":86.5,"05085":83.7,"05087":85.6,"05089":86.1,"05091":83.4,"05093":78.2,"05095":74.2,"05097":86.8,"05099":80.6,"05101":87.1,"05103":74.7,"05105":85.3,"05107":65.2,"05109":89.2,"05111":87.1,"05113":88.8,"05115":82.9,"05117":87.3,"05119":58.5,"05121":87.3,"05123":69.1,"05125":79.3,"05127":89.8,"05129":89.4,"05131":78.6,"05133":85.7,"05135":86.9,"05137":86.5,"05139":78.3,"05141":86.1,"05143":67.7,"05145":86.0,"05147":78.5,"05149":85.7},"votes":{"yes":703359,"no":220971,"total":924330}},{"id":"bm-AR-issue-2","st":"AR","slug":"issue-2","label":"Issue 2","title":"Right to bear arms shall not be infringed","summary":"Declares the right to keep and bear arms, including ammunition, accessories and components, a natural, fundamental and individual right that shall not be infringed.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"guns","group":"guns","lean":"R","campaign":"Supporters say it clarifies what arms covers; opponents worry the without limitation wording could conflict with bans on gun possession by felons or domestic abusers; no money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":72.5,"p10":64.4,"p90":79.4,"prob":0.9995},"prior":74.5,"pollAvg":70.3,"pollWeight":0.27,"polls":[{"pollster":"Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll","sponsor":"Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-11","end":"2026-08-12","n":1217,"pop":"LV","yes":67,"no":23,"und":10,"url":"https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-voters-weigh-in-on-4-ballot-proposals/","adj":70.3}],"sources":["https://www.axios.com/local/nw-arkansas/2026/10/13/ballot-initiatives-arkansas-2026-guide","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/arkansas","https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-voters-weigh-in-on-4-ballot-proposals/","https://www.uaex.uada.edu/business-communities/voter-education/docs/2026-Arkansas-Ballot-Issues-Voter-Guide.pdf"],"counties":{"05001":80.5,"05003":81.6,"05005":83.3,"05007":67.4,"05009":85.6,"05011":79.1,"05013":84.6,"05015":76.9,"05017":68.2,"05019":73.3,"05021":84.8,"05023":86.3,"05025":86.0,"05027":77.6,"05029":79.1,"05031":77.2,"05033":83.5,"05035":61.9,"05037":81.2,"05039":77.4,"05041":71.2,"05043":76.6,"05045":75.4,"05047":85.2,"05049":84.9,"05051":71.8,"05053":86.3,"05055":84.6,"05057":79.1,"05059":82.2,"05061":80.9,"05063":84.0,"05065":85.7,"05067":81.5,"05069":56.4,"05071":82.1,"05073":79.9,"05075":85.6,"05077":70.0,"05079":82.1,"05081":82.7,"05083":85.0,"05085":82.2,"05087":84.3,"05089":84.6,"05091":82.1,"05093":77.6,"05095":74.0,"05097":85.2,"05099":79.6,"05101":85.6,"05103":74.3,"05105":83.8,"05107":66.2,"05109":87.6,"05111":85.7,"05113":87.1,"05115":81.6,"05117":85.6,"05119":52.5,"05121":85.7,"05123":69.7,"05125":72.5,"05127":88.2,"05129":87.7,"05131":72.3,"05133":85.3,"05135":85.3,"05137":84.9,"05139":77.4,"05141":84.7,"05143":61.5,"05145":84.3,"05147":77.6,"05149":84.6},"votes":{"yes":669886,"no":254451,"total":924337}},{"id":"bm-AR-issue-3","st":"AR","slug":"issue-3","label":"Issue 3","title":"Economic development districts and public loans","summary":"Lets the General Assembly create economic development districts and fund programs, loans and grants of public money, including district bonds for industrial, headquarters or sports projects.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_sales_other","group":"taxes_sales_other","lean":"none","campaign":"No organized support or opposition or money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":46.6,"p10":39.9,"p90":53.2,"prob":0.264},"prior":59.9,"pollAvg":41.6,"pollWeight":0.99,"polls":[{"pollster":"Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-08","end":"2026-10-13","n":709,"pop":"LV","yes":27,"no":38,"und":35,"url":"https://talkbusiness.net/2026/10/poll-undecideds-still-trending-high-on-issue-3-trump-approval-pulls-even/","adj":38.7},{"pollster":"Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll","sponsor":"Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-11","end":"2026-08-12","n":1217,"pop":"LV","yes":37,"no":25,"und":38,"url":"https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-voters-weigh-in-on-4-ballot-proposals/","adj":49.7}],"sources":["https://www.axios.com/local/nw-arkansas/2026/10/13/ballot-initiatives-arkansas-2026-guide","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/arkansas","https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-voters-weigh-in-on-4-ballot-proposals/","https://www.uaex.uada.edu/business-communities/voter-education/docs/2026-Arkansas-Ballot-Issues-Voter-Guide.pdf"],"counties":{"05001":47.5,"05003":47.7,"05005":47.8,"05007":45.6,"05009":47.4,"05011":47.4,"05013":47.4,"05015":47.3,"05017":47.4,"05019":46.5,"05021":47.6,"05023":47.7,"05025":47.2,"05027":46.8,"05029":47.1,"05031":46.1,"05033":47.0,"05035":47.0,"05037":47.2,"05039":48.0,"05041":47.6,"05043":46.6,"05045":45.8,"05047":47.5,"05049":47.8,"05051":47.1,"05053":46.9,"05055":47.1,"05057":47.2,"05059":47.3,"05061":47.3,"05063":47.1,"05065":47.5,"05067":47.3,"05069":47.1,"05071":47.1,"05073":48.2,"05075":47.4,"05077":48.0,"05079":47.1,"05081":47.4,"05083":47.4,"05085":46.6,"05087":47.5,"05089":48.0,"05091":47.2,"05093":47.3,"05095":47.8,"05097":47.8,"05099":47.7,"05101":47.8,"05103":47.4,"05105":47.4,"05107":47.6,"05109":47.2,"05111":47.7,"05113":47.5,"05115":46.6,"05117":47.5,"05119":45.8,"05121":47.7,"05123":47.4,"05125":46.5,"05127":47.6,"05129":47.7,"05131":46.7,"05133":47.5,"05135":47.9,"05137":47.9,"05139":47.1,"05141":47.9,"05143":45.5,"05145":46.9,"05147":47.7,"05149":47.3},"votes":{"yes":430622,"no":493717,"total":924339}},{"id":"bm-AR-issue-4","st":"AR","slug":"issue-4","label":"Issue 4","title":"$500 million water infrastructure bonds","summary":"Authorizes the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission to issue up to $500 million in general obligation bonds for water, waste disposal, pollution control, flood control, irrigation and wetlands projects.","type":"bond","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"Legislatively referred bond issue; no organized opposition or money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":68.7,"p10":60.0,"p90":76.2,"prob":0.9965},"prior":62.7,"pollAvg":74.0,"pollWeight":0.27,"polls":[{"pollster":"Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll","sponsor":"Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-11","end":"2026-08-12","n":1217,"pop":"LV","yes":66,"no":10,"und":24,"url":"https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-voters-weigh-in-on-4-ballot-proposals/","adj":74.0}],"sources":["https://www.axios.com/local/nw-arkansas/2026/10/13/ballot-initiatives-arkansas-2026-guide","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/arkansas","https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-voters-weigh-in-on-4-ballot-proposals/","https://www.uaex.uada.edu/business-communities/voter-education/docs/2026-Arkansas-Ballot-Issues-Voter-Guide.pdf"],"counties":{"05001":67.5,"05003":66.7,"05005":65.3,"05007":69.1,"05009":64.7,"05011":68.5,"05013":65.3,"05015":69.5,"05017":72.8,"05019":72.2,"05021":64.9,"05023":63.7,"05025":64.7,"05027":69.9,"05029":68.8,"05031":71.0,"05033":66.6,"05035":69.1,"05037":67.7,"05039":68.4,"05041":71.6,"05043":70.6,"05045":72.3,"05047":64.8,"05049":64.5,"05051":65.0,"05053":65.0,"05055":65.9,"05057":68.7,"05059":67.0,"05061":67.7,"05063":66.2,"05065":64.4,"05067":67.4,"05069":70.8,"05071":67.4,"05073":66.9,"05075":64.7,"05077":71.5,"05079":67.4,"05081":66.5,"05083":65.2,"05085":68.0,"05087":65.5,"05089":64.3,"05091":67.2,"05093":69.5,"05095":70.1,"05097":64.3,"05099":67.8,"05101":64.0,"05103":70.5,"05105":65.9,"05107":73.2,"05109":63.5,"05111":64.3,"05113":63.4,"05115":68.3,"05117":64.5,"05119":73.5,"05121":64.3,"05123":72.4,"05125":65.8,"05127":62.4,"05129":62.6,"05131":65.6,"05133":64.9,"05135":64.1,"05137":64.3,"05139":69.6,"05141":64.5,"05143":71.2,"05145":66.3,"05147":68.6,"05149":65.6},"votes":{"yes":634600,"no":289733,"total":924333}},{"id":"bm-FL-amendment-1","st":"FL","slug":"amendment-1","label":"Amendment 1","title":"Bigger rainy day fund with required deposits","summary":"Raises the Budget Stabilization Fund cap to 25% of general revenue and requires annual transfers of $750 million until the cap is met, with limited suspension and withdrawal rules.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"Republican Party of Florida endorses; Jolly D supports with guardrails; Gov. DeSantis calls it foolish and Donalds R opposes; Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Democratic parties urge no; no money reported.","threshold":0.6,"thresholdNote":"60 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Florida constitutional amendments need 60% of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":65.2,"p10":51.7,"p90":76.3,"prob":0.6975},"prior":65.2,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wlrn.org/government-politics/2026-10-15/what-florida-voters-need-to-know-about-amendments-1-and-2","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/florida","https://constitutionalinitiatives.dos.fl.gov/Home/InitDetail?account=10&seqnum=108"],"counties":{"12001":69.0,"12003":53.0,"12005":58.8,"12007":55.3,"12009":61.9,"12011":71.2,"12013":53.1,"12015":57.7,"12017":55.6,"12019":59.8,"12021":60.6,"12023":56.3,"12027":56.1,"12029":51.3,"12031":69.5,"12033":62.3,"12035":59.9,"12037":58.2,"12039":66.4,"12041":53.0,"12043":54.8,"12045":56.6,"12047":57.2,"12049":55.3,"12051":58.3,"12053":58.0,"12055":56.3,"12057":70.0,"12059":49.3,"12061":60.0,"12063":56.7,"12065":60.4,"12067":50.3,"12069":60.3,"12071":60.3,"12073":69.3,"12075":55.6,"12077":54.5,"12079":58.5,"12081":66.0,"12083":58.6,"12085":60.3,"12086":68.5,"12087":63.0,"12089":58.9,"12091":60.3,"12093":55.5,"12095":71.9,"12097":64.8,"12099":69.5,"12101":60.9,"12103":68.3,"12105":61.1,"12107":55.9,"12113":58.7,"12115":66.3,"12117":65.8,"12109":63.1,"12111":62.2,"12119":57.0,"12121":54.4,"12123":54.6,"12125":52.8,"12127":60.9,"12129":58.6,"12131":57.7,"12133":53.2},"votes":{"yes":5475208,"no":2919800,"total":8395008}},{"id":"bm-FL-amendment-2","st":"FL","slug":"amendment-2","label":"Amendment 2","title":"Property tax exemption for farm equipment","summary":"Exempts tangible personal property such as farm equipment used for agricultural production or agritourism on agricultural land from property taxes starting in 2027.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"none","campaign":"Sponsored by Sen. Keith Truenow R; Hillsborough County Democratic Party opposes; about $31M a year local revenue loss estimated; no money reported.","threshold":0.6,"thresholdNote":"60 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Florida constitutional amendments need 60% of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":65.7,"p10":53.1,"p90":76.8,"prob":0.727},"prior":65.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wlrn.org/government-politics/2026-10-15/what-florida-voters-need-to-know-about-amendments-1-and-2","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/florida","https://constitutionalinitiatives.dos.fl.gov/Home/InitDetail?account=10&seqnum=109"],"counties":{"12001":62.6,"12003":66.4,"12005":64.6,"12007":67.7,"12009":66.2,"12011":64.4,"12013":67.8,"12015":70.7,"12017":70.2,"12019":64.2,"12021":68.7,"12023":68.6,"12027":70.3,"12029":69.8,"12031":63.5,"12033":64.6,"12035":68.2,"12037":69.2,"12039":67.8,"12041":68.1,"12043":70.2,"12045":68.4,"12047":68.7,"12049":67.9,"12051":67.0,"12053":67.7,"12055":70.7,"12057":63.1,"12059":69.0,"12061":69.1,"12063":68.7,"12065":68.9,"12067":69.0,"12069":67.5,"12071":68.1,"12073":62.1,"12075":69.8,"12077":66.0,"12079":69.1,"12081":67.6,"12083":68.4,"12085":68.2,"12086":64.4,"12087":68.0,"12089":67.9,"12091":63.8,"12093":68.8,"12095":62.3,"12097":63.3,"12099":66.3,"12101":66.0,"12103":66.5,"12105":65.9,"12107":69.8,"12113":63.9,"12115":69.4,"12117":63.2,"12109":64.1,"12111":67.1,"12119":75.3,"12121":68.8,"12123":68.8,"12125":67.7,"12127":67.0,"12129":66.3,"12131":64.7,"12133":68.1},"votes":{"yes":5515600,"no":2879398,"total":8394998}},{"id":"bm-FL-amendment-3","st":"FL","slug":"amendment-3","label":"Amendment 3","title":"Large homestead property tax cut toward elimination","summary":"Exempts the first $250,000 of homestead value from non school levies on a schedule toward full elimination, limits local property tax uses and future business assessments, and requires five years residency for new residents to get the larger exemption.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes on 3 backed by RPOF, Gov. DeSantis and Florida Realtors, which has spent about $18M; opposed by the Florida Democratic Party, many local officials, sheriffs and public employee unions; Florida Policy Institute estimates $12B recurring local revenue loss.","threshold":0.6,"thresholdNote":"60 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Florida constitutional amendments need 60% of votes cast on the measure. Placed by HJR 1F.","est":{"yes":60.1,"p10":54.5,"p90":65.1,"prob":0.4825},"prior":69.0,"pollAvg":58.2,"pollWeight":6.73,"polls":[{"pollster":"St. Pete Polls (Fextel) for Florida Politics","sponsor":"Florida Politics","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-25","end":"2026-10-27","n":916,"pop":"LV","yes":43.9,"no":39.4,"und":16.7,"url":"https://www.stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2026_State_Gov_October27_P4GSI29L.pdf","adj":49.5},{"pollster":"University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-12","end":"2026-10-19","n":1471,"pop":"LV","yes":50,"no":30,"und":14,"url":"https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2026/10/21/unf-poll-shows-tight-florida-governor-senate-races/","adj":58.2},{"pollster":"MDW Communications / EDGE Communications","sponsor":"","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-04","end":"2026-10-10","n":2351,"pop":"LV","yes":50,"no":27,"und":23,"url":"https://www.mdwcomm.com/media/florida-statewide-poll-october-2026.html","adj":57.7},{"pollster":"Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research","sponsor":"","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-01","end":"2026-10-09","n":716,"pop":"LV","yes":56,"no":21,"und":23,"url":"https://floridianpress.com/?p=99351","adj":63.7},{"pollster":"St. Pete Polls","sponsor":"Florida Politics","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-07","n":836,"pop":"LV","yes":42,"no":35,"und":23,"url":"https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/?p=191562","adj":49.7},{"pollster":"Targoz Market Research","sponsor":"James Madison Institute","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-04","n":857,"pop":"LV","yes":63,"no":21,"und":15,"url":"https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/?p=191562","adj":68.7},{"pollster":"Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy","sponsor":"NBC 6 South Florida / Telemundo Station Group","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-01","n":625,"pop":"LV","yes":55,"no":26,"und":19,"url":"https://www.nbcmiami.com/elections/majority-of-florida-voters-support-amendment-3-new-poll-finds/3869270/","adj":61.3},{"pollster":"McLaughlin & Associates","sponsor":"Associated Industries of Florida","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-28","end":"2026-10-01","n":800,"pop":"LV","yes":53,"no":28,"und":19,"url":"https://www.winknews.com/news/new-poll-shows-floridas-amendment-3-falling-short-of-support-needed-to-pass-in-november/article_649bb81b-dec9-474d-8674-aff514d8e9c8.html","adj":59.3},{"pollster":"Sachs Media","sponsor":null,"side":"independent","start":"2026-08-18","end":"2026-08-18","n":800,"pop":"RV","yes":63,"no":37,"und":null,"url":"https://thecapitolist.com/new-poll-shows-amendment-3-above-60-threshold-with-revised-language/","adj":63.0},{"pollster":"Sachs Media","sponsor":null,"side":"independent","start":null,"end":"2026-08-03","n":null,"pop":null,"yes":64,"no":null,"und":null,"url":"https://thecapitolist.com/new-poll-shows-amendment-3-above-60-threshold-with-revised-language/","adj":null},{"pollster":"University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab","sponsor":"UNF PORL","side":"independent","start":"2026-07-08","end":"2026-07-17","n":null,"pop":null,"yes":61,"no":32,"und":null,"url":"https://www.miamitimesonline.com/business/amendment-3-can-pass-but-only-if-voters-never-learn-what-it-does-new-unf/article_1bc02430-ff81-4dfc-835e-cd4cdb460739.html","adj":63.3},{"pollster":"Sachs Media","sponsor":null,"side":"independent","start":"2026-06-22","end":"2026-06-24","n":850,"pop":"RV","yes":64,"no":36,"und":null,"url":"https://floridianpress.com/2026/07/sachs-media-poll-florida-voters-would-approve-property-tax-amendment-on-november-ballot/","adj":64.0}],"sources":["https://theballotbrief.com/measures/florida","https://constitutionalinitiatives.dos.fl.gov/Home/InitDetail?account=10&seqnum=110","https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/?p=191562","https://www.rismedia.com/2026/10/14/election-day-looming-polls-differ-florida-property-tax-cut-amendment/","https://www.nbcmiami.com/elections/majority-of-florida-voters-support-amendment-3-new-poll-finds/3869270/","https://www.winknews.com/news/new-poll-shows-floridas-amendment-3-falling-short-of-support-needed-to-pass-in-november/article_649bb81b-dec9-474d-8674-aff514d8e9c8.html","https://floridianpress.com/2026/07/sachs-media-poll-florida-voters-would-approve-property-tax-amendment-on-november-ballot/","https://thecapitolist.com/new-poll-shows-amendment-3-above-60-threshold-with-revised-language/","https://www.miamitimesonline.com/business/amendment-3-can-pass-but-only-if-voters-never-learn-what-it-does-new-unf/article_1bc02430-ff81-4dfc-835e-cd4cdb460739.html"],"counties":{"12001":49.5,"12003":69.2,"12005":62.4,"12007":67.3,"12009":60.9,"12011":54.5,"12013":69.8,"12015":70.4,"12017":71.1,"12019":60.1,"12021":67.4,"12023":67.7,"12027":69.2,"12029":73.5,"12031":55.8,"12033":58.0,"12035":65.3,"12037":67.9,"12039":53.9,"12041":70.5,"12043":70.8,"12045":68.2,"12047":65.7,"12049":67.7,"12051":62.9,"12053":65.6,"12055":71.2,"12057":55.5,"12059":75.0,"12061":66.9,"12063":67.0,"12065":63.4,"12067":73.8,"12069":63.5,"12071":65.4,"12073":48.6,"12075":69.6,"12077":66.7,"12079":65.0,"12081":66.0,"12083":66.1,"12085":65.9,"12086":58.7,"12087":62.3,"12089":66.4,"12091":60.4,"12093":68.7,"12095":51.6,"12097":52.7,"12099":60.7,"12101":61.0,"12103":61.6,"12105":60.1,"12107":69.2,"12113":61.8,"12115":68.6,"12117":53.2,"12109":59.2,"12111":60.5,"12119":77.2,"12121":70.0,"12123":69.7,"12125":69.8,"12127":62.2,"12129":62.7,"12131":64.6,"12133":69.6},"votes":{"yes":5042408,"no":3352600,"total":8395008}},{"id":"bm-GA-amendment-1","st":"GA","slug":"amendment-1","label":"Amendment 1","title":"Raise conservation use acreage cap to 4,000","summary":"Doubles the maximum acreage that can qualify for bona fide conservation use property tax assessment from 2,000 to 4,000 acres.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"none","campaign":"HR 32 2025; passed with two thirds; no organized campaign or polling reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":65.7,"p10":53.3,"p90":76.6,"prob":0.945},"prior":65.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/2026%20Constitutional%20Summaries%20booklet%20FINAL.pdf","https://www.news4jax.com/voters-guide/2026/10/08/2026-voters-guide-georgia-constitutional-amendments/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/georgia"],"counties":{"13001":70.3,"13003":69.1,"13005":70.2,"13007":71.8,"13009":68.9,"13011":69.1,"13013":65.3,"13015":67.9,"13017":70.3,"13019":69.7,"13021":66.5,"13023":69.3,"13025":69.6,"13027":71.1,"13029":63.8,"13031":66.9,"13033":69.7,"13035":68.6,"13037":69.5,"13039":68.5,"13043":70.5,"13045":65.7,"13047":67.2,"13049":68.9,"13051":65.7,"13053":64.2,"13055":70.4,"13057":64.9,"13059":63.5,"13061":72.7,"13063":64.5,"13065":70.4,"13067":63.6,"13069":69.0,"13071":69.6,"13073":65.1,"13075":69.3,"13077":65.0,"13079":70.2,"13081":70.7,"13083":70.5,"13085":68.5,"13087":69.8,"13089":63.8,"13091":70.2,"13093":71.0,"13095":67.2,"13097":64.3,"13099":70.5,"13101":65.9,"13103":64.7,"13105":70.6,"13107":69.5,"13109":69.8,"13111":72.3,"13113":65.8,"13115":66.7,"13117":63.3,"13119":70.0,"13121":62.8,"13123":71.6,"13125":69.4,"13127":68.1,"13129":68.9,"13131":70.3,"13133":71.5,"13135":63.7,"13137":69.7,"13139":66.2,"13141":71.6,"13143":68.7,"13145":68.3,"13147":70.7,"13149":67.4,"13151":64.4,"13153":65.0,"13155":69.7,"13157":67.6,"13159":68.9,"13161":69.4,"13163":69.8,"13165":71.1,"13167":70.7,"13169":69.1,"13171":69.0,"13173":69.0,"13175":69.7,"13177":67.1,"13179":64.8,"13181":71.2,"13183":67.1,"13185":65.4,"13187":68.9,"13189":69.9,"13191":69.9,"13193":70.3,"13195":69.4,"13197":70.6,"13199":70.4,"13201":71.1,"13205":70.1,"13207":68.8,"13209":69.3,"13211":69.1,"13213":68.9,"13215":65.8,"13217":65.2,"13219":66.7,"13221":69.1,"13223":64.2,"13225":66.6,"13227":68.1,"13229":69.3,"13231":67.9,"13233":69.0,"13235":71.4,"13237":70.6,"13239":74.9,"13241":71.5,"13243":71.3,"13245":66.2,"13247":65.7,"13249":67.8,"13251":70.5,"13253":72.5,"13255":67.8,"13257":70.9,"13259":68.7,"13261":69.5,"13263":71.8,"13265":72.7,"13267":69.1,"13269":70.6,"13271":70.4,"13273":70.6,"13275":69.7,"13277":68.9,"13279":69.7,"13281":73.2,"13283":69.9,"13285":68.7,"13287":70.8,"13289":71.4,"13291":72.8,"13293":69.9,"13295":68.0,"13297":66.1,"13299":70.0,"13301":71.3,"13303":69.5,"13305":69.2,"13307":69.5,"13309":70.4,"13311":70.5,"13313":66.5,"13315":70.5,"13317":71.2,"13319":70.2,"13321":70.8},"votes":{"yes":2883278,"no":1505249,"total":4388527}},{"id":"bm-GA-amendment-2","st":"GA","slug":"amendment-2","label":"Amendment 2","title":"Nonpartisan elections for all probate judges","summary":"Requires all probate court judges to be elected in nonpartisan elections.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"elections_voting","lean":"none","campaign":"HR 251; no organized campaign reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":59.9,"p10":46.2,"p90":71.7,"prob":0.8285},"prior":59.9,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/2026%20Constitutional%20Summaries%20booklet%20FINAL.pdf","https://www.news4jax.com/voters-guide/2026/10/08/2026-voters-guide-georgia-constitutional-amendments/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/georgia"],"counties":{"13001":53.8,"13003":53.7,"13005":53.6,"13007":55.2,"13009":57.4,"13011":55.7,"13013":56.5,"13015":57.2,"13017":54.4,"13019":55.1,"13021":57.9,"13023":56.1,"13025":54.7,"13027":54.9,"13029":59.9,"13031":59.6,"13033":55.2,"13035":55.0,"13037":54.7,"13039":57.2,"13043":55.1,"13045":57.1,"13047":57.0,"13049":54.4,"13051":60.6,"13053":59.1,"13055":54.1,"13057":60.9,"13059":63.3,"13061":56.7,"13063":57.2,"13065":53.5,"13067":63.5,"13069":55.0,"13071":55.6,"13073":60.3,"13075":55.6,"13077":59.9,"13079":54.6,"13081":55.1,"13083":55.5,"13085":59.5,"13087":55.2,"13089":63.0,"13091":55.5,"13093":55.0,"13095":57.0,"13097":58.9,"13099":54.8,"13101":55.4,"13103":57.8,"13105":55.2,"13107":54.6,"13109":55.0,"13111":56.5,"13113":62.6,"13115":57.8,"13117":64.1,"13119":55.3,"13121":65.2,"13123":56.8,"13125":55.0,"13127":59.1,"13129":55.9,"13131":55.5,"13133":60.0,"13135":61.2,"13137":57.3,"13139":58.4,"13141":53.7,"13143":55.2,"13145":60.0,"13147":56.0,"13149":54.1,"13151":58.4,"13153":59.2,"13155":55.0,"13157":57.8,"13159":55.9,"13161":54.6,"13163":54.5,"13165":53.9,"13167":53.2,"13169":55.8,"13171":55.9,"13173":56.0,"13175":55.9,"13177":59.2,"13179":56.6,"13181":54.6,"13183":54.7,"13185":58.5,"13187":58.9,"13189":55.5,"13191":55.7,"13193":53.9,"13195":56.1,"13197":55.6,"13199":54.5,"13201":56.2,"13205":54.8,"13207":57.6,"13209":56.2,"13211":58.0,"13213":54.9,"13215":59.0,"13217":57.3,"13219":63.7,"13221":57.1,"13223":58.2,"13225":56.9,"13227":57.3,"13229":56.0,"13231":56.2,"13233":55.2,"13235":54.6,"13237":58.5,"13239":53.7,"13241":58.2,"13243":55.0,"13245":57.5,"13247":59.1,"13249":56.6,"13251":54.8,"13253":54.3,"13255":55.7,"13257":54.6,"13259":54.8,"13261":56.8,"13263":53.8,"13265":53.7,"13267":55.3,"13269":55.3,"13271":53.8,"13273":54.4,"13275":56.8,"13277":56.8,"13279":56.0,"13281":57.9,"13283":54.2,"13285":57.1,"13287":53.5,"13289":53.3,"13291":56.9,"13293":55.0,"13295":56.2,"13297":57.0,"13299":54.6,"13301":54.0,"13303":55.5,"13305":55.3,"13307":53.3,"13309":53.9,"13311":56.6,"13313":56.7,"13315":55.2,"13317":54.9,"13319":54.0,"13321":54.0},"votes":{"yes":2627379,"no":1761143,"total":4388522}},{"id":"bm-GA-amendment-3","st":"GA","slug":"amendment-3","label":"Amendment 3","title":"Dedicated Next Generation 911 fund","summary":"Authorizes the General Assembly to dedicate existing revenues, such as 911 fees, to a nonlapsing fund used only for 911 systems.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"none","campaign":"HR 1243 per the SOS booklet, News4JAX lists HR 1251; no organized campaign reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":63.4,"p10":50.5,"p90":74.5,"prob":0.907},"prior":63.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://sos.ga.gov/sites/default/files/2026-09/2026%20Constitutional%20Summaries%20booklet%20FINAL.pdf","https://www.news4jax.com/voters-guide/2026/10/08/2026-voters-guide-georgia-constitutional-amendments/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/georgia"],"counties":{"13001":59.5,"13003":59.4,"13005":59.3,"13007":60.3,"13009":61.8,"13011":60.7,"13013":61.3,"13015":61.7,"13017":59.9,"13019":60.3,"13021":62.1,"13023":60.9,"13025":60.0,"13027":60.1,"13029":63.5,"13031":63.2,"13033":60.4,"13035":60.2,"13037":60.1,"13039":61.7,"13043":60.3,"13045":61.7,"13047":61.5,"13049":59.9,"13051":63.9,"13053":63.0,"13055":59.7,"13057":64.1,"13059":65.6,"13061":61.2,"13063":61.7,"13065":59.3,"13067":65.8,"13069":60.3,"13071":60.6,"13073":63.7,"13075":60.6,"13077":63.5,"13079":60.0,"13081":60.3,"13083":60.5,"13085":63.2,"13087":60.3,"13089":65.5,"13091":60.6,"13093":60.2,"13095":61.5,"13097":62.8,"13099":60.1,"13101":60.5,"13103":62.1,"13105":60.3,"13107":60.0,"13109":60.2,"13111":61.1,"13113":65.1,"13115":62.0,"13117":66.2,"13119":60.4,"13121":66.9,"13123":61.3,"13125":60.3,"13127":62.8,"13129":60.8,"13131":60.5,"13133":63.4,"13135":64.3,"13137":61.7,"13139":62.4,"13141":59.3,"13143":60.4,"13145":63.4,"13147":60.9,"13149":59.7,"13151":62.5,"13153":63.0,"13155":60.2,"13157":62.1,"13159":60.8,"13161":60.0,"13163":59.9,"13165":59.5,"13167":59.1,"13169":60.8,"13171":60.8,"13173":60.9,"13175":60.8,"13177":63.0,"13179":61.4,"13181":59.9,"13183":60.1,"13185":62.5,"13187":62.7,"13189":60.5,"13191":60.6,"13193":59.5,"13195":60.9,"13197":60.6,"13199":59.9,"13201":61.0,"13205":60.1,"13207":61.9,"13209":61.0,"13211":62.2,"13213":60.2,"13215":62.8,"13217":61.8,"13219":65.9,"13221":61.6,"13223":62.4,"13225":61.5,"13227":61.7,"13229":60.9,"13231":61.1,"13233":60.4,"13235":59.9,"13237":62.4,"13239":59.2,"13241":62.2,"13243":60.2,"13245":61.9,"13247":62.9,"13249":61.3,"13251":60.1,"13253":59.7,"13255":60.7,"13257":59.9,"13259":60.1,"13261":61.4,"13263":59.4,"13265":59.3,"13267":60.4,"13269":60.4,"13271":59.5,"13273":59.8,"13275":61.4,"13277":61.4,"13279":60.9,"13281":62.0,"13283":59.7,"13285":61.6,"13287":59.3,"13289":59.1,"13291":61.4,"13293":60.2,"13295":61.0,"13297":61.5,"13299":60.0,"13301":59.5,"13303":60.6,"13305":60.4,"13307":59.2,"13309":59.5,"13311":61.2,"13313":61.3,"13315":60.3,"13317":60.1,"13319":59.6,"13321":59.6},"votes":{"yes":2782934,"no":1605589,"total":4388523}},{"id":"bm-KY-constitutional-amendment-1","st":"KY","slug":"constitutional-amendment-1","label":"Constitutional Amendment 1","title":"Limit governor pardons near gubernatorial election","summary":"Bars the governor from granting pardons, commutations or reprieves from 60 days before the gubernatorial election until the new term begins, except in impeachment matters.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"criminal_justice","group":"criminal_justice","lean":"none","campaign":"SB 10 by Sen. Chris McDaniel R, prompted by Gov. Bevin's 2019 end of term pardons; no organized opposition or money reported. Ballot question says the window ends at swearing in while the text says the fifth Tuesday after the election.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":69.0,"p10":56.5,"p90":79.2,"prob":0.973},"prior":69.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://theballotbrief.com/measures/kentucky","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kentucky_Amendment_1","https://nkytribune.com/2026/09/on-the-ballot-proposed-reform-of-govenors-pardon-power-is-put-before-kentucky-voters/","https://web.sos.ky.gov/ballots/FAYETTE%202026G.pdf"],"counties":{"21001":68.0,"21003":67.6,"21005":68.7,"21007":67.4,"21009":67.6,"21011":66.7,"21013":67.2,"21015":70.1,"21017":68.8,"21019":67.8,"21021":68.8,"21023":67.4,"21025":67.1,"21027":66.8,"21029":67.7,"21031":66.2,"21033":67.2,"21035":69.6,"21037":70.5,"21039":66.9,"21041":66.6,"21043":67.1,"21045":66.6,"21047":68.0,"21049":68.3,"21051":67.3,"21053":67.3,"21055":66.9,"21057":67.4,"21059":68.7,"21061":66.3,"21063":66.0,"21065":66.5,"21067":72.0,"21069":67.6,"21071":67.0,"21073":69.5,"21075":67.3,"21077":67.1,"21079":67.5,"21081":67.2,"21083":67.5,"21085":67.2,"21087":67.0,"21089":67.4,"21091":67.2,"21093":68.6,"21095":66.7,"21097":68.1,"21099":66.6,"21101":67.8,"21103":67.1,"21105":66.9,"21107":67.3,"21109":66.1,"21111":70.4,"21113":69.8,"21115":67.3,"21117":70.4,"21119":67.7,"21121":66.9,"21123":67.1,"21125":67.5,"21127":66.8,"21129":66.2,"21131":66.5,"21133":66.6,"21135":67.0,"21137":67.2,"21139":66.8,"21141":67.2,"21143":67.2,"21145":69.0,"21147":66.2,"21149":67.2,"21151":70.0,"21153":66.6,"21155":67.1,"21157":67.8,"21159":66.5,"21161":67.6,"21163":67.8,"21165":66.7,"21167":68.5,"21169":66.7,"21171":67.2,"21173":68.0,"21175":67.7,"21177":66.9,"21179":68.3,"21181":66.3,"21183":66.8,"21185":71.5,"21187":67.4,"21189":65.7,"21191":67.1,"21193":67.0,"21195":67.4,"21197":66.9,"21199":67.5,"21201":66.8,"21203":66.8,"21205":68.9,"21207":67.0,"21209":70.0,"21211":69.9,"21213":67.7,"21215":68.2,"21217":68.2,"21219":67.2,"21221":68.0,"21223":67.1,"21225":66.7,"21227":70.0,"21229":67.7,"21231":66.8,"21233":66.7,"21235":68.0,"21237":66.1,"21239":70.7},"votes":{"yes":1075327,"no":483180,"total":1558507}},{"id":"bm-LA-amendment-1","st":"LA","slug":"amendment-1","label":"Amendment 1","title":"Surviving spouse can transfer disabled veteran exemption","summary":"Lets a surviving spouse of a qualifying disabled veteran move the homestead property tax exemption to a new home one time.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"none","campaign":"Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":65.7,"p10":52.7,"p90":77.0,"prob":0.939},"prior":65.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-face-10-constitutional-amendments-november-heres-what-yes-or-no-vote-means/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/louisiana","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/05/louisiana-voters-will-decide-on-10-legislatively-referred-ballot-measures-in-nov-2026-the-most-since-2014/"],"counties":{"22001":71.2,"22003":70.1,"22005":60.5,"22007":72.9,"22009":72.6,"22011":71.2,"22013":73.9,"22015":63.4,"22017":66.1,"22019":64.4,"22021":72.5,"22023":70.5,"22025":71.8,"22027":74.8,"22029":73.1,"22031":72.1,"22033":62.2,"22035":70.9,"22037":72.1,"22039":71.1,"22041":73.3,"22043":70.5,"22045":65.1,"22047":70.6,"22049":73.4,"22051":65.3,"22053":72.0,"22055":61.8,"22057":70.6,"22059":71.5,"22061":68.7,"22063":62.3,"22065":72.2,"22067":73.8,"22069":71.4,"22071":62.8,"22073":63.6,"22075":62.0,"22077":73.6,"22079":64.8,"22081":73.0,"22083":72.0,"22085":74.5,"22087":62.3,"22089":62.1,"22091":73.6,"22093":65.1,"22095":63.3,"22097":71.6,"22099":71.1,"22101":72.5,"22103":64.2,"22105":63.8,"22107":77.1,"22109":64.3,"22111":74.3,"22113":71.1,"22115":70.2,"22117":73.6,"22119":74.0,"22121":62.2,"22123":74.1,"22125":69.0,"22127":72.0},"votes":{"yes":939844,"no":490645,"total":1430489}},{"id":"bm-LA-amendment-2","st":"LA","slug":"amendment-2","label":"Amendment 2","title":"Keep right to restore prior maximum millage","summary":"Lets local taxing authorities levy below their prior maximum rate without permanently losing the ability to return to a previously authorized maximum, up to the voter approved cap.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"none","campaign":"Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":65.7,"p10":52.9,"p90":77.3,"prob":0.938},"prior":65.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-face-10-constitutional-amendments-november-heres-what-yes-or-no-vote-means/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/louisiana","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/05/louisiana-voters-will-decide-on-10-legislatively-referred-ballot-measures-in-nov-2026-the-most-since-2014/"],"counties":{"22001":68.0,"22003":67.6,"22005":63.8,"22007":68.7,"22009":68.6,"22011":67.9,"22013":69.1,"22015":64.9,"22017":65.9,"22019":65.3,"22021":68.6,"22023":67.7,"22025":68.2,"22027":69.5,"22029":68.7,"22031":68.3,"22033":64.1,"22035":67.9,"22037":68.2,"22039":68.0,"22041":68.7,"22043":67.7,"22045":66.0,"22047":67.6,"22049":68.9,"22051":65.5,"22053":68.3,"22055":64.1,"22057":67.5,"22059":68.1,"22061":66.3,"22063":64.7,"22065":68.4,"22067":69.1,"22069":67.7,"22071":64.2,"22073":64.9,"22075":64.6,"22077":68.9,"22079":65.5,"22081":68.7,"22083":68.2,"22085":69.3,"22087":64.8,"22089":64.5,"22091":69.0,"22093":65.8,"22095":65.2,"22097":68.2,"22099":67.9,"22101":68.5,"22103":64.9,"22105":65.3,"22107":70.4,"22109":65.5,"22111":69.2,"22113":67.9,"22115":67.5,"22117":69.0,"22119":69.1,"22121":64.6,"22123":69.1,"22125":66.8,"22127":68.3},"votes":{"yes":939847,"no":490648,"total":1430495}},{"id":"bm-LA-amendment-3","st":"LA","slug":"amendment-3","label":"Amendment 3","title":"No post conviction bail for crimes against minors","summary":"Prohibits post conviction bail for people convicted of certain aggravated offenses against children.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"criminal_justice","group":"criminal_justice","lean":"R","campaign":"Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":76.7,"p10":66.4,"p90":84.8,"prob":0.998},"prior":76.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-face-10-constitutional-amendments-november-heres-what-yes-or-no-vote-means/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/louisiana","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/05/louisiana-voters-will-decide-on-10-legislatively-referred-ballot-measures-in-nov-2026-the-most-since-2014/"],"counties":{"22001":86.4,"22003":85.9,"22005":80.1,"22007":82.3,"22009":82.9,"22011":89.2,"22013":78.3,"22015":81.1,"22017":71.1,"22019":81.1,"22021":87.4,"22023":91.8,"22025":81.8,"22027":75.8,"22029":77.2,"22031":79.9,"22033":68.3,"22035":64.9,"22037":78.0,"22039":83.5,"22041":81.3,"22043":89.5,"22045":80.2,"22047":72.2,"22049":82.8,"22051":77.3,"22053":86.1,"22055":79.0,"22057":85.7,"22059":89.8,"22061":76.2,"22063":87.4,"22065":70.0,"22067":74.9,"22069":77.0,"22071":54.9,"22073":77.3,"22075":79.6,"22077":79.9,"22079":81.0,"22081":79.2,"22083":79.9,"22085":87.2,"22087":80.2,"22089":80.1,"22091":73.4,"22093":71.5,"22095":66.0,"22097":77.8,"22099":80.7,"22101":79.7,"22103":82.7,"22105":80.7,"22107":71.9,"22109":83.9,"22111":84.7,"22113":86.4,"22115":87.9,"22117":82.1,"22119":80.9,"22121":73.9,"22123":87.0,"22125":77.8,"22127":82.9},"votes":{"yes":1097428,"no":333066,"total":1430494}},{"id":"bm-LA-amendment-4","st":"LA","slug":"amendment-4","label":"Amendment 4","title":"Lifetime two term limit for governor","summary":"Bars anyone who has served more than one and a half terms as governor from being elected again, making two terms a lifetime limit.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"government_ethics","group":"government_ethics","lean":"none","campaign":"Sponsored by Reps. Mike Bayham R and Mandie Landry D; no organized campaign or money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":69.0,"p10":56.7,"p90":78.7,"prob":0.968},"prior":69.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-face-10-constitutional-amendments-november-heres-what-yes-or-no-vote-means/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/louisiana","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/05/louisiana-voters-will-decide-on-10-legislatively-referred-ballot-measures-in-nov-2026-the-most-since-2014/","https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-could-ban-governors-serving-more-than-two-terms-under-november-amendment/"],"counties":{"22001":67.0,"22003":66.9,"22005":69.3,"22007":66.7,"22009":66.6,"22011":67.5,"22013":66.6,"22015":69.2,"22017":68.8,"22019":68.7,"22021":66.4,"22023":67.2,"22025":67.2,"22027":66.5,"22029":67.5,"22031":67.2,"22033":70.7,"22035":66.9,"22037":67.6,"22039":67.0,"22041":67.4,"22043":67.5,"22045":67.0,"22047":67.7,"22049":66.9,"22051":69.5,"22053":67.2,"22055":70.2,"22057":68.2,"22059":66.9,"22061":70.4,"22063":68.1,"22065":67.0,"22067":66.9,"22069":68.8,"22071":71.2,"22073":69.3,"22075":68.2,"22077":67.4,"22079":68.5,"22081":66.9,"22083":67.7,"22085":66.8,"22087":67.8,"22089":69.0,"22091":66.5,"22093":67.6,"22095":67.5,"22097":67.1,"22099":67.4,"22101":66.9,"22103":70.4,"22105":68.2,"22107":66.7,"22109":67.8,"22111":67.1,"22113":67.6,"22115":68.0,"22117":66.8,"22119":66.8,"22121":68.5,"22123":67.0,"22125":68.6,"22127":67.2},"votes":{"yes":987011,"no":443490,"total":1430501}},{"id":"bm-LA-amendment-5","st":"LA","slug":"amendment-5","label":"Amendment 5","title":"Flexibility in paying retirement system debt","summary":"Removes the rule that nonrecurring state money must pay a retirement system's oldest unfunded liability first.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":64.4,"p10":51.7,"p90":75.7,"prob":0.923},"prior":64.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-face-10-constitutional-amendments-november-heres-what-yes-or-no-vote-means/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/louisiana","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/05/louisiana-voters-will-decide-on-10-legislatively-referred-ballot-measures-in-nov-2026-the-most-since-2014/"],"counties":{"22001":57.2,"22003":57.2,"22005":64.1,"22007":60.0,"22009":59.4,"22011":54.0,"22013":61.7,"22015":62.9,"22017":67.1,"22019":62.5,"22021":55.1,"22023":50.6,"22025":60.4,"22027":62.8,"22029":63.3,"22031":61.7,"22033":69.9,"22035":68.4,"22037":62.9,"22039":59.5,"22041":61.1,"22043":53.4,"22045":61.7,"22047":66.4,"22049":59.7,"22051":65.3,"22053":57.4,"22055":65.1,"22057":58.9,"22059":52.3,"22061":65.6,"22063":57.3,"22065":65.8,"22067":63.9,"22069":63.9,"22071":75.7,"22073":64.8,"22075":63.9,"22077":61.7,"22079":61.8,"22081":61.5,"22083":62.0,"22085":55.5,"22087":63.1,"22089":63.7,"22091":64.5,"22093":66.5,"22095":68.6,"22097":62.8,"22099":62.0,"22101":62.0,"22103":62.8,"22105":62.2,"22107":64.5,"22109":60.0,"22111":58.1,"22113":57.6,"22115":55.8,"22117":60.1,"22119":60.6,"22121":66.3,"22123":56.1,"22125":63.8,"22127":59.7},"votes":{"yes":921844,"no":508645,"total":1430489}},{"id":"bm-LA-amendment-6","st":"LA","slug":"amendment-6","label":"Amendment 6","title":"Extra local property tax exemption for seniors","summary":"Lets parishes and municipalities offer an additional homestead exemption of up to $30,000 assessed value, rising with age, to qualifying homeowners 65 and older.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"none","campaign":"Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":65.7,"p10":52.9,"p90":76.7,"prob":0.9405},"prior":65.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-face-10-constitutional-amendments-november-heres-what-yes-or-no-vote-means/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/louisiana","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/05/louisiana-voters-will-decide-on-10-legislatively-referred-ballot-measures-in-nov-2026-the-most-since-2014/"],"counties":{"22001":68.0,"22003":67.0,"22005":62.1,"22007":69.6,"22009":69.3,"22011":68.0,"22013":70.5,"22015":64.6,"22017":66.9,"22019":65.5,"22021":69.2,"22023":67.4,"22025":68.6,"22027":71.4,"22029":69.8,"22031":68.8,"22033":63.5,"22035":67.7,"22037":68.8,"22039":67.9,"22041":69.9,"22043":67.3,"22045":66.2,"22047":67.4,"22049":70.0,"22051":66.2,"22053":68.7,"22055":63.2,"22057":67.4,"22059":68.2,"22061":65.6,"22063":63.7,"22065":68.9,"22067":70.4,"22069":68.1,"22071":64.0,"22073":64.8,"22075":63.4,"22077":70.2,"22079":65.9,"22081":69.7,"22083":68.7,"22085":71.1,"22087":63.8,"22089":63.5,"22091":70.2,"22093":66.1,"22095":64.6,"22097":68.4,"22099":67.9,"22101":69.2,"22103":65.2,"22105":65.0,"22107":73.6,"22109":65.4,"22111":70.9,"22113":67.9,"22115":67.1,"22117":70.2,"22119":70.5,"22121":63.6,"22123":70.6,"22125":65.9,"22127":68.7},"votes":{"yes":939847,"no":490644,"total":1430491}},{"id":"bm-LA-amendment-7","st":"LA","slug":"amendment-7","label":"Amendment 7","title":"Public funds for private drinking water lines","summary":"Allows public funds to identify, remove or replace hazardous drinking water service lines on customer owned property.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"environment_energy","group":"environment_energy","lean":"none","campaign":"Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":62.2,"p10":49.4,"p90":73.7,"prob":0.8845},"prior":62.2,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-face-10-constitutional-amendments-november-heres-what-yes-or-no-vote-means/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/louisiana","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/05/louisiana-voters-will-decide-on-10-legislatively-referred-ballot-measures-in-nov-2026-the-most-since-2014/"],"counties":{"22001":63.5,"22003":63.4,"22005":61.3,"22007":63.3,"22009":63.1,"22011":64.0,"22013":63.1,"22015":61.3,"22017":60.8,"22019":60.7,"22021":63.0,"22023":63.8,"22025":63.8,"22027":63.0,"22029":64.0,"22031":63.8,"22033":62.9,"22035":63.5,"22037":64.2,"22039":63.5,"22041":63.9,"22043":64.0,"22045":58.8,"22047":64.3,"22049":63.4,"22051":61.6,"22053":63.7,"22055":62.4,"22057":64.8,"22059":63.5,"22061":67.2,"22063":60.0,"22065":63.5,"22067":63.4,"22069":65.5,"22071":63.5,"22073":61.3,"22075":60.2,"22077":63.9,"22079":60.4,"22081":63.4,"22083":64.2,"22085":63.3,"22087":59.6,"22089":61.0,"22091":63.0,"22093":59.5,"22095":59.4,"22097":63.6,"22099":64.0,"22101":63.5,"22103":62.5,"22105":60.1,"22107":63.3,"22109":59.7,"22111":63.6,"22113":64.1,"22115":64.6,"22117":63.3,"22119":63.3,"22121":60.5,"22123":63.6,"22125":65.3,"22127":63.7},"votes":{"yes":890426,"no":540070,"total":1430496}},{"id":"bm-LA-amendment-8","st":"LA","slug":"amendment-8","label":"Amendment 8","title":"Bar foreign adversaries from expropriating property","summary":"Prohibits foreign adversaries and their agents from using expropriation to acquire private property.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"R","campaign":"Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":64.4,"p10":51.0,"p90":75.9,"prob":0.914},"prior":64.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-face-10-constitutional-amendments-november-heres-what-yes-or-no-vote-means/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/louisiana","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/05/louisiana-voters-will-decide-on-10-legislatively-referred-ballot-measures-in-nov-2026-the-most-since-2014/"],"counties":{"22001":68.3,"22003":68.3,"22005":66.3,"22007":64.6,"22009":65.1,"22011":72.2,"22013":62.4,"22015":66.9,"22017":60.9,"22019":66.2,"22021":69.1,"22023":74.8,"22025":65.4,"22027":60.8,"22029":62.4,"22031":63.9,"22033":62.2,"22035":55.7,"22037":63.5,"22039":66.0,"22041":64.6,"22043":72.7,"22045":63.7,"22047":59.9,"22049":65.2,"22051":64.6,"22053":68.3,"22055":66.7,"22057":69.0,"22059":72.7,"22061":66.7,"22063":70.6,"22065":58.8,"22067":60.4,"22069":64.8,"22071":55.3,"22073":64.9,"22075":64.1,"22077":63.9,"22079":66.3,"22081":63.3,"22083":64.4,"22085":68.9,"22087":64.0,"22089":65.8,"22091":59.1,"22093":59.3,"22095":56.9,"22097":62.5,"22099":64.2,"22101":63.0,"22103":69.1,"22105":65.5,"22107":58.7,"22109":67.1,"22111":67.0,"22113":68.9,"22115":71.5,"22117":64.5,"22119":64.0,"22121":61.8,"22123":68.9,"22125":65.0,"22127":66.0},"votes":{"yes":921946,"no":508549,"total":1430495}},{"id":"bm-LA-amendment-9","st":"LA","slug":"amendment-9","label":"Amendment 9","title":"Raise income limit for assessment freeze to $150,000","summary":"Raises the income limit for the special property tax assessment level freeze from $100,000 to $150,000.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"none","campaign":"Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":65.7,"p10":52.5,"p90":76.4,"prob":0.9295},"prior":65.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-face-10-constitutional-amendments-november-heres-what-yes-or-no-vote-means/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/louisiana","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/05/louisiana-voters-will-decide-on-10-legislatively-referred-ballot-measures-in-nov-2026-the-most-since-2014/"],"counties":{"22001":68.0,"22003":67.5,"22005":63.4,"22007":69.0,"22009":68.8,"22011":67.9,"22013":69.5,"22015":64.8,"22017":66.2,"22019":65.4,"22021":68.8,"22023":67.6,"22025":68.3,"22027":70.0,"22029":69.0,"22031":68.5,"22033":63.9,"22035":67.9,"22037":68.4,"22039":68.0,"22041":69.1,"22043":67.6,"22045":66.0,"22047":67.6,"22049":69.2,"22051":65.7,"22053":68.4,"22055":63.8,"22057":67.5,"22059":68.2,"22061":66.1,"22063":64.4,"22065":68.6,"22067":69.4,"22069":67.8,"22071":64.1,"22073":64.9,"22075":64.3,"22077":69.2,"22079":65.6,"22081":69.0,"22083":68.3,"22085":69.8,"22087":64.5,"22089":64.2,"22091":69.4,"22093":65.9,"22095":65.0,"22097":68.2,"22099":67.9,"22101":68.7,"22103":65.0,"22105":65.2,"22107":71.3,"22109":65.5,"22111":69.7,"22113":67.9,"22115":67.4,"22117":69.3,"22119":69.5,"22121":64.3,"22123":69.5,"22125":66.6,"22127":68.4},"votes":{"yes":939846,"no":490645,"total":1430491}},{"id":"bm-LA-amendment-10","st":"LA","slug":"amendment-10","label":"Amendment 10","title":"Tax exemption for rehabilitated blighted property","summary":"Lets parishes create property tax exemptions for rehabilitated blighted or abandoned property.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"none","campaign":"Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":65.7,"p10":51.9,"p90":76.6,"prob":0.9295},"prior":65.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/14/louisiana-voters-face-10-constitutional-amendments-november-heres-what-yes-or-no-vote-means/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/louisiana","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/05/louisiana-voters-will-decide-on-10-legislatively-referred-ballot-measures-in-nov-2026-the-most-since-2014/"],"counties":{"22001":68.0,"22003":67.5,"22005":63.4,"22007":69.0,"22009":68.8,"22011":67.9,"22013":69.5,"22015":64.8,"22017":66.2,"22019":65.4,"22021":68.8,"22023":67.6,"22025":68.3,"22027":70.0,"22029":69.0,"22031":68.5,"22033":63.9,"22035":67.9,"22037":68.4,"22039":68.0,"22041":69.1,"22043":67.6,"22045":66.0,"22047":67.6,"22049":69.2,"22051":65.7,"22053":68.4,"22055":63.8,"22057":67.5,"22059":68.2,"22061":66.1,"22063":64.4,"22065":68.6,"22067":69.4,"22069":67.8,"22071":64.1,"22073":64.9,"22075":64.3,"22077":69.2,"22079":65.6,"22081":69.0,"22083":68.3,"22085":69.8,"22087":64.5,"22089":64.2,"22091":69.4,"22093":65.9,"22095":65.0,"22097":68.2,"22099":67.9,"22101":68.7,"22103":65.0,"22105":65.2,"22107":71.3,"22109":65.5,"22111":69.7,"22113":67.9,"22115":67.4,"22117":69.3,"22119":69.5,"22121":64.3,"22123":69.5,"22125":66.6,"22127":68.4},"votes":{"yes":939846,"no":490645,"total":1430491}},{"id":"bm-NC-photo-id-amendment","st":"NC","slug":"photo-id-amendment","label":"Photo ID Amendment","title":"Photo ID for all voters including mail","summary":"Requires every voter, not only those voting in person, to present photo identification before voting.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"voter_id","group":"voter_id","lean":"R","campaign":"Backed by Republican legislative majority; opposed by Democrats and voting rights groups; no money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":68.3,"p10":62.1,"p90":74.1,"prob":1.0},"prior":72.8,"pollAvg":66.5,"pollWeight":1.03,"polls":[{"pollster":"Harper Polling (R)","sponsor":"Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation","side":"conservative","start":"2026-10-18","end":"2026-10-20","n":600,"pop":"LV","yes":65.1,"no":31.1,"und":3.8,"url":"https://www.carolinajournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/H25035-CJ-NC-Oct26-Toplines.pdf","adj":66.4},{"pollster":"Elon University Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"Elon University","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-21","end":"2026-08-31","n":null,"pop":"LV","yes":63,"no":25,"und":12,"url":"https://www.elon.edu/u/news/?p=1056336","adj":67.0},{"pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"Catawba College Center for NC Politics & Public Service","side":"independent","start":null,"end":null,"n":1000,"pop":"A","yes":70,"no":null,"und":null,"url":"https://catawba.edu/news/all-news/2026/yougov-34/","adj":null}],"sources":["https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/statewide_referendums_20261103.pdf","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/north-carolina","https://ncnewsline.com/2026/09/17/new-nc-poll-shows-voters-strongly-favor-constitutional-amendments-on-taxes-voting/","https://www.elon.edu/u/news/?p=1056336","https://catawba.edu/news/all-news/2026/yougov-34/"],"counties":{"37001":71.3,"37003":86.8,"37005":84.8,"37007":68.0,"37009":83.2,"37011":84.7,"37013":77.9,"37015":58.7,"37017":73.7,"37019":77.4,"37021":63.8,"37023":82.3,"37025":70.7,"37027":85.2,"37029":83.6,"37031":82.0,"37033":75.5,"37035":80.9,"37037":65.6,"37039":86.2,"37041":73.9,"37043":84.1,"37045":79.6,"37047":78.3,"37049":75.3,"37051":61.7,"37053":83.2,"37055":75.9,"37057":83.1,"37059":83.2,"37061":76.6,"37063":41.6,"37065":57.4,"37067":63.7,"37069":72.7,"37071":76.7,"37073":75.5,"37075":88.1,"37077":70.6,"37079":73.4,"37081":59.5,"37083":60.0,"37085":76.0,"37087":78.9,"37089":75.2,"37091":55.7,"37093":64.6,"37095":75.3,"37097":78.6,"37099":74.9,"37101":75.1,"37103":75.9,"37105":74.5,"37107":69.3,"37109":82.8,"37111":84.5,"37113":81.6,"37115":78.4,"37117":70.2,"37119":54.4,"37121":85.9,"37123":80.0,"37125":77.5,"37127":67.1,"37129":69.5,"37131":60.5,"37133":79.6,"37135":51.2,"37137":78.6,"37139":68.8,"37141":79.4,"37143":80.2,"37145":76.0,"37147":64.6,"37149":77.8,"37151":85.8,"37153":74.8,"37155":76.4,"37157":80.0,"37159":79.7,"37161":83.6,"37163":76.6,"37165":69.6,"37167":84.1,"37169":86.9,"37171":85.1,"37173":79.0,"37175":74.7,"37177":74.4,"37179":76.0,"37181":61.9,"37183":59.0,"37185":60.0,"37187":64.8,"37189":69.4,"37191":72.4,"37193":86.8,"37195":66.6,"37197":87.4,"37199":81.2},"votes":{"yes":2840072,"no":1319416,"total":4159488}},{"id":"bm-NC-income-tax-cap-amendment","st":"NC","slug":"income-tax-cap-amendment","label":"Income Tax Cap Amendment","title":"Cap state income tax rate at 3.5%","summary":"Lowers the constitutional cap on the state income tax rate from 7% to 3.5%.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_income","group":"taxes_income","lean":"R","campaign":"Backed by Republican legislators; NC groups launched a campaign to defeat the two tax amendments; no money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":66.9,"p10":60.2,"p90":72.6,"prob":0.9995},"prior":62.2,"pollAvg":68.5,"pollWeight":1.03,"polls":[{"pollster":"Harper Polling (R)","sponsor":"Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation","side":"conservative","start":"2026-10-18","end":"2026-10-20","n":600,"pop":"LV","yes":64.3,"no":26.8,"und":8.9,"url":"https://www.carolinajournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/H25035-CJ-NC-Oct26-Toplines.pdf","adj":67.3},{"pollster":"Elon University Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"Elon University","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-21","end":"2026-08-31","n":null,"pop":"LV","yes":67,"no":18,"und":16,"url":"https://www.elon.edu/u/news/?p=1056336","adj":71.6},{"pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"Catawba College Center for NC Politics & Public Service","side":"independent","start":null,"end":null,"n":1000,"pop":"A","yes":67,"no":null,"und":null,"url":"https://catawba.edu/news/all-news/2026/yougov-34/","adj":null}],"sources":["https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/statewide_referendums_20261103.pdf","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/north-carolina","https://ncnewsline.com/2026/09/17/new-nc-poll-shows-voters-strongly-favor-constitutional-amendments-on-taxes-voting/","https://www.elon.edu/u/news/?p=1056336","https://catawba.edu/news/all-news/2026/yougov-34/"],"counties":{"37001":68.9,"37003":80.3,"37005":78.6,"37007":69.4,"37009":76.8,"37011":78.2,"37013":74.3,"37015":65.4,"37017":72.3,"37019":72.6,"37021":60.9,"37023":76.2,"37025":68.1,"37027":78.6,"37029":77.5,"37031":75.9,"37033":73.2,"37035":75.0,"37037":63.8,"37039":79.8,"37041":72.4,"37043":77.8,"37045":74.8,"37047":75.0,"37049":71.7,"37051":64.4,"37053":76.8,"37055":70.5,"37057":77.2,"37059":76.9,"37061":73.9,"37063":48.9,"37065":63.8,"37067":63.9,"37069":70.1,"37071":72.4,"37073":73.1,"37075":81.4,"37077":69.4,"37079":72.1,"37081":61.8,"37083":65.0,"37085":72.4,"37087":72.7,"37089":70.2,"37091":63.1,"37093":66.2,"37095":72.7,"37097":73.4,"37099":69.2,"37101":71.3,"37103":73.4,"37105":71.3,"37107":69.9,"37109":76.5,"37111":78.0,"37113":75.5,"37115":72.1,"37117":70.7,"37119":58.0,"37121":79.2,"37123":75.6,"37125":72.8,"37127":68.3,"37129":66.1,"37131":65.9,"37133":74.2,"37135":52.4,"37137":74.4,"37139":68.6,"37141":74.2,"37143":76.1,"37145":72.8,"37147":65.5,"37149":72.5,"37151":79.5,"37153":72.4,"37155":73.7,"37157":75.3,"37159":74.8,"37161":77.5,"37163":74.0,"37165":69.7,"37167":78.1,"37169":80.2,"37171":78.6,"37173":72.7,"37175":69.7,"37177":73.3,"37179":71.3,"37181":65.7,"37183":59.4,"37185":64.8,"37187":67.8,"37189":64.6,"37191":71.0,"37193":80.3,"37195":67.9,"37197":80.8,"37199":74.8},"votes":{"yes":2780993,"no":1378494,"total":4159487}},{"id":"bm-NC-property-tax-limit-amendment","st":"NC","slug":"property-tax-limit-amendment","label":"Property Tax Limit Amendment","title":"Require limits on local property tax increases","summary":"Requires the General Assembly to enact limits on how much local governments can raise property taxes.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"R","campaign":"Backed by Republican legislators incl. Senate Leader Berger; local government advocates and Democrats warn of service cuts; targeted by the campaign against the two tax amendments.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":67.1,"p10":61.0,"p90":73.1,"prob":0.999},"prior":67.2,"pollAvg":67.1,"pollWeight":1.03,"polls":[{"pollster":"Harper Polling (R)","sponsor":"Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation","side":"conservative","start":"2026-10-18","end":"2026-10-20","n":600,"pop":"LV","yes":59.6,"no":29.8,"und":10.6,"url":"https://www.carolinajournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/H25035-CJ-NC-Oct26-Toplines.pdf","adj":63.1},{"pollster":"Elon University Poll / YouGov","sponsor":"Elon University","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-21","end":"2026-08-31","n":null,"pop":"LV","yes":72,"no":14,"und":14,"url":"https://www.elon.edu/u/news/?p=1056336","adj":76.7},{"pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"Catawba College Center for NC Politics & Public Service","side":"independent","start":null,"end":null,"n":1000,"pop":"A","yes":79,"no":null,"und":null,"url":"https://catawba.edu/news/all-news/2026/yougov-34/","adj":null}],"sources":["https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/statewide_referendums_20261103.pdf","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/north-carolina","https://ncnewsline.com/2026/09/17/new-nc-poll-shows-voters-strongly-favor-constitutional-amendments-on-taxes-voting/","https://www.elon.edu/u/news/?p=1056336","https://catawba.edu/news/all-news/2026/yougov-34/"],"counties":{"37001":68.1,"37003":78.7,"37005":79.4,"37007":71.5,"37009":77.5,"37011":77.8,"37013":75.6,"37015":70.1,"37017":74.0,"37019":73.9,"37021":63.5,"37023":74.3,"37025":66.4,"37027":76.1,"37029":75.6,"37031":76.6,"37033":74.5,"37035":72.8,"37037":68.4,"37039":80.4,"37041":74.7,"37043":79.1,"37045":74.7,"37047":75.1,"37049":71.1,"37051":64.3,"37053":75.5,"37055":72.7,"37057":74.4,"37059":74.7,"37061":74.6,"37063":53.4,"37065":68.4,"37067":64.6,"37069":68.8,"37071":70.4,"37073":74.2,"37075":80.3,"37077":70.6,"37079":72.6,"37081":62.9,"37083":69.4,"37085":71.8,"37087":74.5,"37089":71.1,"37091":68.4,"37093":64.9,"37095":72.9,"37097":70.9,"37099":71.3,"37101":68.6,"37103":74.6,"37105":72.1,"37107":72.3,"37109":73.7,"37111":77.2,"37113":77.3,"37115":73.4,"37117":73.6,"37119":58.9,"37121":78.9,"37123":76.1,"37125":74.4,"37127":70.4,"37129":66.3,"37131":71.6,"37133":70.1,"37135":56.1,"37137":76.3,"37139":70.6,"37141":73.8,"37143":77.6,"37145":73.8,"37147":65.1,"37149":75.7,"37151":76.0,"37153":73.2,"37155":73.8,"37157":73.6,"37159":72.4,"37161":77.2,"37163":74.2,"37165":71.6,"37167":76.8,"37169":79.0,"37171":77.7,"37173":73.5,"37175":73.7,"37177":76.5,"37179":68.5,"37181":69.2,"37183":59.8,"37185":70.4,"37187":72.5,"37189":66.8,"37191":69.9,"37193":79.3,"37195":70.4,"37197":79.2,"37199":76.1},"votes":{"yes":2792891,"no":1366597,"total":4159488}},{"id":"bm-OK-state-question-845","st":"OK","slug":"state-question-845","label":"State Question 845","title":"Restructure Judicial Nominating Commission","summary":"Changes who can serve on the Judicial Nominating Commission and how members are selected, including appointments by current congressional districts.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"criminal_justice","group":"criminal_justice","lean":"R","campaign":"Legislative referral from the GOP majority; Oklahoma Policy Institute urges no, saying it strips protections in choosing top judges; no money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":78.4,"p10":67.8,"p90":86.3,"prob":0.9995},"prior":78.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://okpolicy.org/november2026elections/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/oklahoma","https://oklahoma.gov/elections/elections-results/state-question-info.html"],"counties":{"40001":83.0,"40003":85.7,"40005":84.4,"40007":87.8,"40009":84.0,"40011":82.6,"40013":81.8,"40015":79.7,"40017":78.3,"40019":80.8,"40021":77.4,"40023":82.7,"40025":87.9,"40027":74.0,"40029":84.7,"40031":74.3,"40033":83.6,"40035":81.9,"40037":81.5,"40039":80.6,"40041":82.4,"40043":86.7,"40045":85.9,"40047":81.0,"40049":83.4,"40051":82.7,"40053":84.3,"40055":82.9,"40057":82.0,"40059":86.2,"40061":84.3,"40063":82.4,"40065":81.4,"40067":84.8,"40069":83.3,"40071":80.4,"40073":84.5,"40075":81.8,"40077":83.5,"40079":83.2,"40081":83.0,"40083":79.9,"40085":83.4,"40087":82.3,"40089":83.5,"40091":80.9,"40093":86.7,"40095":83.0,"40097":82.0,"40099":82.6,"40101":77.4,"40103":82.0,"40105":83.7,"40107":81.0,"40109":74.4,"40111":78.6,"40113":78.0,"40115":81.2,"40117":82.2,"40119":75.5,"40121":82.0,"40123":79.7,"40125":79.9,"40127":84.9,"40129":86.8,"40131":81.3,"40133":80.3,"40135":82.6,"40137":83.0,"40139":83.3,"40141":81.7,"40143":77.3,"40145":80.1,"40147":79.9,"40149":85.4,"40151":82.7,"40153":84.7},"votes":{"yes":965321,"no":265766,"total":1231087}},{"id":"bm-OK-state-question-847","st":"OK","slug":"state-question-847","label":"State Question 847","title":"Lower annual caps on taxable property value growth","summary":"Lowers annual caps on growth in taxable value from 3% to 1.75% for homesteads and farmland and from 5% to 4% for other property, and replaces the senior freeze with income based caps, starting 2027.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"R","campaign":"Authored by House Speaker Kyle Hilbert R, backed by Oklahoma Farm Bureau; opposed by Oklahoma Policy Institute and some Democrats over school and local revenue.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":72.4,"p10":60.4,"p90":81.7,"prob":0.991},"prior":72.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://okpolicy.org/november2026elections/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/oklahoma","https://oklahoma.gov/elections/elections-results/state-question-info.html","https://www.news9.com/oklahoma-elections/oklahoma-state-question-847-property-taxes"],"counties":{"40001":78.4,"40003":81.9,"40005":80.8,"40007":83.8,"40009":79.5,"40011":79.3,"40013":77.9,"40015":75.6,"40017":70.7,"40019":77.3,"40021":73.9,"40023":80.8,"40025":85.5,"40027":67.4,"40029":81.2,"40031":69.7,"40033":79.8,"40035":78.5,"40037":77.8,"40039":75.4,"40041":80.8,"40043":82.4,"40045":82.8,"40047":77.1,"40049":79.4,"40051":78.0,"40053":81.4,"40055":79.1,"40057":80.4,"40059":81.9,"40061":81.0,"40063":79.5,"40065":77.2,"40067":81.7,"40069":79.7,"40071":77.7,"40073":79.8,"40075":79.2,"40077":81.1,"40079":79.6,"40081":79.4,"40083":75.5,"40085":79.7,"40087":76.7,"40089":80.3,"40091":79.9,"40093":83.2,"40095":80.8,"40097":78.2,"40099":79.6,"40101":75.1,"40103":79.3,"40105":80.0,"40107":78.1,"40109":65.8,"40111":76.3,"40113":76.5,"40115":78.1,"40117":79.0,"40119":70.3,"40121":79.1,"40123":75.6,"40125":75.9,"40127":82.3,"40129":83.2,"40131":76.4,"40133":77.6,"40135":79.2,"40137":80.0,"40139":77.7,"40141":79.4,"40143":68.0,"40145":73.8,"40147":77.0,"40149":81.6,"40151":78.3,"40153":80.1},"votes":{"yes":891013,"no":340079,"total":1231092}},{"id":"bm-TN-amendment-1","st":"TN","slug":"amendment-1","label":"Amendment 1","title":"Remove right to bail for specified serious offenses","summary":"Removes the constitutional right to bail for defendants charged with specified serious felonies when proof is evident, letting judges deny pretrial release.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"criminal_justice","group":"criminal_justice","lean":"R","campaign":"Sponsored by House Speaker Cameron Sexton R; Tennessee Association of Professional Bail Agents organizing opposition; no money reported.","threshold":0.5319,"thresholdNote":"a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No","ruleNote":"Must receive a majority of all votes cast in the governor's race, not just a majority of votes on the amendment.","est":{"yes":77.6,"p10":67.2,"p90":85.3,"prob":0.9955},"prior":77.6,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://theballotbrief.com/measures/tennessee","https://tennesseelookout.com/?p=33266","https://fox17.com/news/local/early-voters-face-3-tennessee-constitutional-amendments-on-bail-taxes-and-victims-rights"],"counties":{"47001":80.6,"47003":83.7,"47005":85.3,"47007":86.3,"47009":82.5,"47011":84.0,"47013":86.5,"47015":85.7,"47017":84.3,"47019":85.2,"47021":82.3,"47023":84.6,"47025":86.4,"47027":85.9,"47029":86.2,"47031":83.6,"47033":83.5,"47035":84.7,"47037":66.8,"47039":86.3,"47041":85.0,"47043":83.0,"47045":84.0,"47047":79.7,"47049":87.7,"47051":83.0,"47053":82.2,"47055":83.3,"47057":87.2,"47059":85.7,"47061":86.4,"47063":84.2,"47065":75.5,"47067":87.9,"47069":75.5,"47071":86.6,"47073":86.3,"47075":69.8,"47077":85.5,"47079":83.6,"47081":84.7,"47083":84.3,"47085":84.1,"47087":85.3,"47089":85.3,"47091":86.1,"47093":77.2,"47095":82.3,"47097":78.1,"47099":86.2,"47101":85.7,"47103":85.1,"47105":83.5,"47107":85.2,"47109":85.9,"47111":87.3,"47113":74.4,"47115":83.9,"47117":83.7,"47119":81.2,"47121":86.0,"47123":85.8,"47125":75.5,"47127":86.2,"47129":87.1,"47131":84.9,"47133":85.4,"47135":86.5,"47137":85.9,"47139":86.2,"47141":81.9,"47143":85.8,"47145":83.7,"47147":82.6,"47149":76.6,"47151":88.5,"47153":85.8,"47155":84.8,"47157":63.3,"47159":85.4,"47161":85.4,"47163":83.7,"47165":80.9,"47167":82.0,"47169":83.2,"47171":85.1,"47173":86.8,"47175":86.1,"47177":83.9,"47179":80.8,"47181":87.7,"47183":83.5,"47185":85.9,"47187":79.4,"47189":80.7},"votes":{"yes":1689842,"no":486703,"total":2176545}},{"id":"bm-TN-amendment-2","st":"TN","slug":"amendment-2","label":"Amendment 2","title":"Ban a state property tax","summary":"Prohibits the legislature from enacting taxes on property.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"R","campaign":"Yes on 2 campaign launched by Republican leaders with the Tennessee Chamber and Farm Bureau; no organized opposition reported.","threshold":0.5319,"thresholdNote":"a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No","ruleNote":"Must receive a majority of all votes cast in the governor's race, not just a majority of votes on the amendment.","est":{"yes":71.6,"p10":60.2,"p90":81.1,"prob":0.9745},"prior":71.6,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://theballotbrief.com/measures/tennessee","https://tennesseelookout.com/?p=33266","https://fox17.com/news/local/early-voters-face-3-tennessee-constitutional-amendments-on-bail-taxes-and-victims-rights"],"counties":{"47001":73.2,"47003":77.4,"47005":80.6,"47007":80.9,"47009":74.9,"47011":76.0,"47013":81.3,"47015":79.4,"47017":79.4,"47019":78.3,"47021":75.0,"47023":79.3,"47025":80.7,"47027":81.3,"47029":81.2,"47031":77.7,"47033":78.7,"47035":81.2,"47037":60.5,"47039":81.4,"47041":78.9,"47043":76.6,"47045":78.6,"47047":74.3,"47049":82.5,"47051":77.9,"47053":77.0,"47055":78.4,"47057":81.9,"47059":80.4,"47061":80.8,"47063":76.6,"47065":69.0,"47067":83.0,"47069":74.0,"47071":81.8,"47073":80.8,"47075":71.9,"47077":79.9,"47079":79.2,"47081":78.7,"47083":78.8,"47085":78.7,"47087":80.1,"47089":77.9,"47091":81.1,"47093":69.0,"47095":77.4,"47097":75.2,"47099":80.2,"47101":80.3,"47103":79.6,"47105":77.2,"47107":79.7,"47109":80.8,"47111":80.9,"47113":70.3,"47115":78.4,"47117":77.4,"47119":75.3,"47121":80.6,"47123":80.6,"47125":67.4,"47127":80.4,"47129":81.4,"47131":80.0,"47133":79.8,"47135":81.3,"47137":81.2,"47139":80.3,"47141":75.6,"47143":80.1,"47145":76.8,"47147":73.9,"47149":67.8,"47151":82.6,"47153":80.2,"47155":79.1,"47157":63.0,"47159":78.7,"47161":79.7,"47163":76.5,"47165":72.6,"47167":74.6,"47169":76.7,"47171":79.8,"47173":80.8,"47175":81.1,"47177":78.1,"47179":72.9,"47181":82.0,"47183":78.1,"47185":80.5,"47187":69.0,"47189":71.8},"votes":{"yes":1557682,"no":618844,"total":2176526}},{"id":"bm-TN-amendment-3","st":"TN","slug":"amendment-3","label":"Amendment 3","title":"Marsy's Law crime victims' rights","summary":"Rewrites and expands the constitutional list of crime victims' rights, including notice, being heard, restitution and a speedy trial.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"criminal_justice","group":"criminal_justice","lean":"none","campaign":"No visible campaign; some question cost implications.","threshold":0.5319,"thresholdNote":"a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No","ruleNote":"Must receive a majority of all votes cast in the governor's race, not just a majority of votes on the amendment.","est":{"yes":69.0,"p10":56.7,"p90":79.1,"prob":0.946},"prior":69.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://theballotbrief.com/measures/tennessee","https://tennesseelookout.com/?p=33266","https://fox17.com/news/local/early-voters-face-3-tennessee-constitutional-amendments-on-bail-taxes-and-victims-rights"],"counties":{"47001":68.3,"47003":67.2,"47005":66.0,"47007":66.1,"47009":68.3,"47011":67.9,"47013":66.0,"47015":66.7,"47017":67.0,"47019":67.2,"47021":68.2,"47023":67.5,"47025":66.9,"47027":65.7,"47029":65.8,"47031":67.5,"47033":66.8,"47035":66.6,"47037":71.7,"47039":66.1,"47041":67.3,"47043":67.6,"47045":67.5,"47047":68.3,"47049":66.2,"47051":67.8,"47053":67.4,"47055":67.1,"47057":66.4,"47059":67.0,"47061":66.3,"47063":67.4,"47065":69.9,"47067":65.6,"47069":66.1,"47071":66.4,"47073":66.5,"47075":66.4,"47077":66.6,"47079":66.9,"47081":66.4,"47083":66.2,"47085":66.5,"47087":66.4,"47089":67.3,"47091":66.8,"47093":70.3,"47095":65.8,"47097":66.2,"47099":66.5,"47101":65.7,"47103":67.3,"47105":68.3,"47107":67.0,"47109":66.2,"47111":66.2,"47113":68.5,"47115":66.7,"47117":67.8,"47119":68.4,"47121":66.0,"47123":66.7,"47125":69.3,"47127":67.6,"47129":66.3,"47131":67.0,"47133":66.4,"47135":66.2,"47137":66.6,"47139":66.7,"47141":68.8,"47143":67.0,"47145":67.3,"47147":67.7,"47149":69.8,"47151":66.1,"47153":67.2,"47155":67.5,"47157":69.7,"47159":67.1,"47161":66.8,"47163":68.1,"47165":69.2,"47167":67.4,"47169":66.6,"47171":67.3,"47173":66.3,"47175":66.0,"47177":66.4,"47179":69.3,"47181":66.3,"47183":67.7,"47185":66.4,"47187":72.8,"47189":69.7},"votes":{"yes":1501754,"no":674787,"total":2176541}},{"id":"bm-VA-question-1","st":"VA","slug":"question-1","label":"Question 1","title":"Right to reproductive freedom including abortion","summary":"Adds a constitutional right to make one's own decisions about pregnancy, contraception, abortion and fertility care, allowing third trimester restrictions with health exceptions.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"abortion","group":"abortion","lean":"D","campaign":"Supported by Gov. Spanberger, ACLU of Virginia, Planned Parenthood Virginia, Reproductive Freedom for All; opposed by Winsome Earle-Sears' vote no tour, Virginia Catholic Conference, Family Foundation; money not found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":71.0,"p10":59.0,"p90":80.7,"prob":0.9865},"prior":71.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[{"pollster":"Christopher Newport University Wason Center","sponsor":"CNU Wason Center","side":"independent","start":"2026-01-13","end":"2026-01-20","n":807,"pop":"RV","yes":66,"no":null,"und":null,"url":"https://cnu.edu/wason/surveys/archive/2026-01-28.html","adj":null}],"sources":["https://www.elections.virginia.gov/casting-a-ballot/candidate-list/november-2026-proposed-constitutional-amendments/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/virginia","https://cardinalnews.org/2026/08/25/virginians-will-weigh-in-on-3-changes-to-their-state-constitution-this-fall-heres-a-look-at-the-proposed-amendments/","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/01/21/virginia-general-assembly-places-constitutional-amendments-on-same-sex-marriage-abortion-voting-rights-following-criminal-convictions-on-the-nov-2026-ballot/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Virginia_Question_1"],"counties":{"51001":56.4,"51003":82.1,"51005":38.3,"51007":42.4,"51009":52.1,"51011":39.6,"51013":91.9,"51015":42.5,"51017":35.8,"51019":43.6,"51021":28.1,"51023":47.9,"51025":64.6,"51027":26.0,"51029":50.8,"51031":43.1,"51033":59.3,"51035":31.3,"51036":67.6,"51037":48.6,"51041":74.8,"51043":59.8,"51045":34.8,"51047":54.1,"51049":53.1,"51051":29.9,"51053":52.7,"51057":57.2,"51059":85.4,"51061":59.6,"51063":46.4,"51065":63.8,"51067":43.4,"51069":53.6,"51071":36.6,"51073":50.5,"51075":61.0,"51077":31.6,"51079":58.7,"51081":65.5,"51083":53.0,"51085":61.6,"51087":80.9,"51089":46.3,"51091":44.2,"51093":60.7,"51095":73.9,"51097":50.3,"51099":57.2,"51101":46.1,"51103":62.8,"51105":26.0,"51107":80.9,"51109":53.6,"51111":49.9,"51113":48.7,"51115":46.2,"51117":53.0,"51119":53.0,"51121":76.3,"51125":61.7,"51127":54.8,"51131":66.2,"51133":54.9,"51135":51.6,"51137":54.4,"51139":35.8,"51141":31.9,"51143":41.9,"51145":51.3,"51147":66.6,"51149":62.0,"51153":78.2,"51155":42.4,"51157":56.5,"51159":52.2,"51161":60.9,"51163":50.4,"51165":49.0,"51167":28.1,"51169":26.9,"51171":43.4,"51173":33.2,"51175":51.3,"51177":66.8,"51179":72.9,"51181":63.2,"51183":63.7,"51185":28.3,"51187":51.4,"51191":39.8,"51193":55.7,"51195":32.2,"51197":34.5,"51199":71.1,"51510":90.8,"51520":46.1,"51530":48.3,"51540":92.0,"51550":71.9,"51570":55.2,"51580":44.3,"51590":69.8,"51595":72.6,"51600":84.7,"51610":91.0,"51620":72.5,"51630":81.2,"51640":42.4,"51650":81.3,"51660":79.2,"51670":68.9,"51678":82.2,"51680":68.5,"51683":74.5,"51685":71.2,"51690":71.4,"51700":78.9,"51710":83.5,"51720":40.6,"51730":90.5,"51735":50.2,"51740":80.2,"51750":73.0,"51760":91.2,"51770":73.1,"51775":58.4,"51790":73.8,"51800":75.0,"51810":74.3,"51820":64.6,"51830":85.4,"51840":72.0},"votes":{"yes":2474722,"no":1012201,"total":3486923}},{"id":"bm-VA-question-2","st":"VA","slug":"question-2","label":"Question 2","title":"Repeal same sex marriage ban","summary":"Removes the 2006 ban on same sex marriage and affirms that two adults may marry regardless of sex, gender or race with equal legal treatment.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"lgbtq_rights","group":"lgbtq_rights","lean":"D","campaign":"Supported by Gov. Spanberger and Democratic legislators; opposed by Earle-Sears and conservative groups; money not found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":69.2,"p10":57.1,"p90":80.1,"prob":0.973},"prior":69.2,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.elections.virginia.gov/casting-a-ballot/candidate-list/november-2026-proposed-constitutional-amendments/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/virginia","https://cardinalnews.org/2026/08/25/virginians-will-weigh-in-on-3-changes-to-their-state-constitution-this-fall-heres-a-look-at-the-proposed-amendments/","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/01/21/virginia-general-assembly-places-constitutional-amendments-on-same-sex-marriage-abortion-voting-rights-following-criminal-convictions-on-the-nov-2026-ballot/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Virginia_Question_2"],"counties":{"51001":63.6,"51003":79.1,"51005":49.8,"51007":51.0,"51009":53.7,"51011":47.9,"51013":85.4,"51015":50.0,"51017":46.9,"51019":48.5,"51021":37.1,"51023":50.1,"51025":70.2,"51027":36.7,"51029":59.5,"51031":49.2,"51033":64.9,"51035":41.6,"51036":70.2,"51037":56.2,"51041":70.0,"51043":62.7,"51045":39.3,"51047":59.2,"51049":60.2,"51051":42.2,"51053":59.6,"51057":65.2,"51059":78.4,"51061":60.8,"51063":54.7,"51065":66.3,"51067":51.1,"51069":58.3,"51071":46.4,"51073":52.9,"51075":62.0,"51077":42.1,"51079":58.6,"51081":70.2,"51083":60.7,"51085":58.2,"51087":76.1,"51089":56.2,"51091":52.0,"51093":60.2,"51095":69.8,"51097":58.8,"51099":59.2,"51101":52.7,"51103":66.3,"51105":35.6,"51107":72.6,"51109":59.0,"51111":59.9,"51113":55.5,"51115":54.0,"51117":60.8,"51119":58.9,"51121":69.3,"51125":66.2,"51127":56.6,"51131":70.2,"51133":61.3,"51135":59.8,"51137":59.6,"51139":46.6,"51141":43.1,"51143":51.7,"51145":50.3,"51147":67.5,"51149":59.5,"51153":72.7,"51155":51.4,"51157":62.6,"51159":55.9,"51161":59.7,"51163":56.5,"51165":54.8,"51167":38.9,"51169":36.9,"51171":52.5,"51173":43.2,"51175":58.8,"51177":64.2,"51179":67.2,"51181":67.5,"51183":68.7,"51185":37.9,"51187":53.2,"51191":47.3,"51193":63.4,"51195":41.4,"51197":43.7,"51199":65.4,"51510":84.9,"51520":53.8,"51530":50.5,"51540":89.0,"51550":68.1,"51570":55.3,"51580":56.2,"51590":74.2,"51595":76.7,"51600":78.1,"51610":87.0,"51620":74.6,"51630":78.1,"51640":51.7,"51650":79.0,"51660":76.7,"51670":71.0,"51678":77.6,"51680":65.9,"51683":71.7,"51685":73.9,"51690":74.6,"51700":75.9,"51710":79.9,"51720":52.0,"51730":88.7,"51735":49.5,"51740":78.6,"51750":69.5,"51760":87.4,"51770":75.4,"51775":62.0,"51790":72.0,"51800":71.7,"51810":72.7,"51820":65.5,"51830":82.4,"51840":70.7},"votes":{"yes":2413560,"no":1073356,"total":3486916}},{"id":"bm-VA-question-3","st":"VA","slug":"question-3","label":"Question 3","title":"Automatic voting rights restoration after prison","summary":"Establishes a fundamental right to vote and automatically restores voting rights to people with felony convictions upon release from incarceration, and replaces the mental incompetence bar with a capacity standard.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"elections_voting","lean":"D","campaign":"Democratic referral; Republican opposition; no committee money found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":66.0,"p10":53.1,"p90":76.9,"prob":0.9485},"prior":66.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[{"pollster":"Christopher Newport University Wason Center","sponsor":"CNU Wason Center","side":"independent","start":"2026-01-13","end":"2026-01-20","n":807,"pop":"RV","yes":64,"no":null,"und":null,"url":"https://cnu.edu/wason/surveys/archive/2026-01-28.html","adj":null}],"sources":["https://www.elections.virginia.gov/casting-a-ballot/candidate-list/november-2026-proposed-constitutional-amendments/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/virginia","https://cardinalnews.org/2026/08/25/virginians-will-weigh-in-on-3-changes-to-their-state-constitution-this-fall-heres-a-look-at-the-proposed-amendments/","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/01/21/virginia-general-assembly-places-constitutional-amendments-on-same-sex-marriage-abortion-voting-rights-following-criminal-convictions-on-the-nov-2026-ballot/","https://www.vpm.org/elections/2026-09-18/what-is-ballot-question-3-va/"],"counties":{"51001":57.5,"51003":75.6,"51005":43.0,"51007":46.5,"51009":50.5,"51011":44.1,"51013":83.9,"51015":45.6,"51017":41.1,"51019":46.4,"51021":34.8,"51023":46.8,"51025":64.5,"51027":33.1,"51029":53.3,"51031":46.5,"51033":58.8,"51035":37.4,"51036":64.1,"51037":51.4,"51041":67.8,"51043":58.2,"51045":36.9,"51047":54.4,"51049":55.0,"51051":36.4,"51053":54.4,"51057":58.5,"51059":76.8,"51061":57.7,"51063":48.6,"51065":61.4,"51067":46.5,"51069":53.5,"51071":41.2,"51073":48.9,"51075":59.4,"51077":37.9,"51079":54.7,"51081":64.8,"51083":55.3,"51085":56.6,"51087":73.4,"51089":49.9,"51091":47.3,"51093":56.9,"51095":67.0,"51097":52.7,"51099":56.2,"51101":48.4,"51103":62.4,"51105":33.1,"51107":72.0,"51109":54.0,"51111":53.1,"51113":50.5,"51115":49.3,"51117":55.3,"51119":54.6,"51121":67.1,"51125":60.4,"51127":54.5,"51131":64.9,"51133":56.4,"51135":54.1,"51137":54.5,"51139":40.7,"51141":38.3,"51143":46.4,"51145":49.1,"51147":63.9,"51149":57.7,"51153":70.8,"51155":45.8,"51157":56.1,"51159":51.5,"51161":56.3,"51163":51.6,"51165":50.1,"51167":34.8,"51169":33.8,"51171":46.5,"51173":38.8,"51175":53.6,"51177":61.1,"51179":65.8,"51181":62.9,"51183":63.8,"51185":34.9,"51187":49.1,"51191":43.6,"51193":56.8,"51195":37.8,"51197":39.6,"51199":64.1,"51510":83.0,"51520":48.6,"51530":46.7,"51540":85.5,"51550":65.7,"51570":52.6,"51580":47.8,"51590":68.3,"51595":71.4,"51600":75.8,"51610":84.3,"51620":70.2,"51630":74.7,"51640":45.9,"51650":74.9,"51660":72.3,"51670":64.6,"51678":74.8,"51680":64.4,"51683":67.7,"51685":67.9,"51690":69.0,"51700":72.2,"51710":76.0,"51720":44.3,"51730":85.2,"51735":48.0,"51740":74.0,"51750":66.0,"51760":84.2,"51770":69.2,"51775":56.8,"51790":66.6,"51800":68.9,"51810":65.4,"51820":59.4,"51830":78.2,"51840":65.1},"votes":{"yes":2302232,"no":1184685,"total":3486917}},{"id":"bm-WV-amendment-1","st":"WV","slug":"amendment-1","label":"Amendment 1","title":"Only U.S. citizens may vote","summary":"Adds a requirement to the constitution that only U.S. citizens who are West Virginia residents may vote, barring local noncitizen voting.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"citizen_voting","lean":"R","campaign":"SJR 9 passed unanimously; Americans for Citizen Voting supports; League of Women Voters of WV and WV Citizen Action Group oppose; no money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"","est":{"yes":86.3,"p10":78.6,"p90":91.6,"prob":1.0},"prior":86.3,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/wv-voters-will-decide-proposed-citizen-only-voting-constitutional-amendment-november","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/03/17/west-virginia-becomes-fourth-state-to-place-citizenship-requirement-amendment-on-2026-ballot/","https://theballotbrief.com/measures/west-virginia"],"counties":{"54001":91.0,"54003":85.2,"54005":90.5,"54007":89.2,"54009":87.3,"54011":81.8,"54013":91.9,"54015":91.4,"54017":93.3,"54019":87.2,"54021":89.8,"54023":94.4,"54025":86.9,"54027":91.0,"54029":87.9,"54031":90.2,"54033":86.3,"54035":89.8,"54037":80.1,"54039":81.1,"54041":90.4,"54043":91.6,"54045":91.9,"54047":91.1,"54049":84.3,"54051":88.5,"54053":90.3,"54055":89.8,"54057":90.3,"54059":93.5,"54061":76.3,"54063":91.1,"54065":89.7,"54067":90.3,"54069":82.7,"54071":90.3,"54073":90.6,"54075":88.7,"54077":90.0,"54079":87.3,"54081":89.2,"54083":87.8,"54085":93.3,"54087":89.6,"54089":88.9,"54091":88.8,"54093":88.2,"54095":92.1,"54097":90.0,"54099":89.3,"54101":92.0,"54103":89.9,"54105":92.0,"54107":86.9,"54109":93.2},"votes":{"yes":494175,"no":78125,"total":572300}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-1","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-1","label":"Proposition 1","title":"Affordable housing and veterans housing bond","summary":"Authorizes 11.25 billion dollars in state general obligation bonds, 10 billion for affordable housing and 1.25 billion for CalVet home loans.","type":"bond","category":"housing","group":"housing","lean":"D","campaign":"Placed by Legislature via SB 417 (Veterans and Affordable Housing Bond Act of 2026). LAO estimates about 17.39 billion to repay over 30 years.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":60.5,"p10":54.4,"p90":66.5,"prob":0.985},"prior":65.0,"pollAvg":59.2,"pollWeight":1.52,"polls":[{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":60,"no":38,"und":2,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf","adj":60.7},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":55,"no":43,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":55.7}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/"],"counties":{"06001":75.2,"06003":65.5,"06005":48.7,"06007":52.5,"06009":48.5,"06011":49.5,"06013":61.9,"06015":52.1,"06017":48.2,"06019":61.2,"06021":47.7,"06023":64.8,"06025":52.1,"06027":55.6,"06029":47.1,"06031":46.7,"06033":55.8,"06035":41.4,"06037":60.8,"06039":51.9,"06041":69.8,"06043":50.6,"06045":63.3,"06047":51.8,"06049":43.3,"06051":61.5,"06053":60.2,"06055":61.0,"06057":59.2,"06059":52.7,"06061":49.4,"06063":51.5,"06065":51.8,"06067":66.6,"06069":60.2,"06071":51.8,"06073":66.3,"06075":78.7,"06077":61.7,"06079":56.0,"06081":65.6,"06083":60.4,"06085":71.7,"06087":68.3,"06089":46.8,"06091":49.6,"06093":51.1,"06095":57.9,"06097":64.4,"06099":49.5,"06101":48.8,"06103":45.2,"06105":53.0,"06107":47.2,"06109":50.7,"06111":56.0,"06113":64.2,"06115":50.5},"votes":{"yes":7679598,"no":5007572,"total":12687170}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-2","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-2","label":"Proposition 2","title":"Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent","summary":"Doubles the state budget reserve cap from 10 to 20 percent of the General Fund and changes deposit and debt payment rules.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"ACA 20 placed by legislative Democrats as part of the 2026 budget deal.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":62.7,"p10":56.5,"p90":68.2,"prob":0.9935},"prior":68.0,"pollAvg":61.0,"pollWeight":1.52,"polls":[{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":61,"no":38,"und":1,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf","adj":61.3},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":60,"no":39,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":60.3}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/"],"counties":{"06001":71.5,"06003":62.4,"06005":52.1,"06007":57.4,"06009":52.0,"06011":52.5,"06013":64.0,"06015":53.9,"06017":56.7,"06019":61.9,"06021":51.4,"06023":60.9,"06025":55.7,"06027":56.6,"06029":54.5,"06031":53.7,"06033":54.7,"06035":48.5,"06037":62.8,"06039":54.1,"06041":68.8,"06043":53.9,"06045":59.1,"06047":55.9,"06049":49.1,"06051":60.6,"06053":61.6,"06055":62.7,"06057":59.0,"06059":60.1,"06061":57.8,"06063":52.7,"06065":57.2,"06067":65.3,"06069":58.9,"06071":57.1,"06073":66.3,"06075":74.0,"06077":61.8,"06079":59.7,"06081":66.6,"06083":62.0,"06085":70.2,"06087":66.3,"06089":51.7,"06091":52.2,"06093":52.9,"06095":59.9,"06097":63.9,"06099":55.4,"06101":52.7,"06103":50.6,"06105":53.2,"06107":54.3,"06109":53.0,"06111":60.4,"06113":64.4,"06115":53.3},"votes":{"yes":7949583,"no":4737597,"total":12687180}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-3","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-3","label":"Proposition 3","title":"Make top income tax rates permanent","summary":"Removes the 2030 expiration of the 10.3 to 12.3 percent top income tax brackets first created by Prop 30 and extended by Prop 55, funding schools and health care.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"taxes_income","group":"taxes_income","lean":"D","campaign":"Initiative extending Prop 30/55 high earner rates; backed by education and health care labor coalition per news reports.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":57.1,"p10":51.4,"p90":62.7,"prob":0.9525},"prior":53.2,"pollAvg":57.9,"pollWeight":3.49,"polls":[{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-25","n":1477,"pop":"LV","yes":54,"no":37,"und":8,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt1vp9q3f9/qt1vp9q3f9.pdf","adj":57.2},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":58,"no":41,"und":1,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf","adj":58.3},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-15","end":"2026-09-20","n":2261,"pop":"LV","yes":54,"no":34,"und":13,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","adj":57.8},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":58,"no":40,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":58.7}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","https://calmatters.org/newsletter/billionaire-tax-proposition-poll/"],"counties":{"06001":66.3,"06003":59.0,"06005":46.3,"06007":51.6,"06009":46.2,"06011":46.4,"06013":60.0,"06015":49.0,"06017":48.7,"06019":53.8,"06021":44.9,"06023":59.0,"06025":53.1,"06027":51.4,"06029":47.8,"06031":47.7,"06033":52.9,"06035":39.5,"06037":59.1,"06039":48.0,"06041":66.8,"06043":47.4,"06045":59.1,"06047":52.3,"06049":41.4,"06051":56.2,"06053":58.9,"06055":59.7,"06057":54.4,"06059":51.4,"06061":49.2,"06063":49.2,"06065":52.0,"06067":58.7,"06069":55.2,"06071":51.9,"06073":57.3,"06075":69.5,"06077":54.8,"06079":54.3,"06081":62.8,"06083":57.9,"06085":62.1,"06087":65.1,"06089":44.0,"06091":47.3,"06093":48.5,"06095":57.6,"06097":62.9,"06099":50.2,"06101":45.3,"06103":42.8,"06105":51.0,"06107":48.0,"06109":47.8,"06111":55.0,"06113":60.1,"06115":46.9},"votes":{"yes":7238941,"no":5448238,"total":12687179}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-4","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-4","label":"Proposition 4","title":"Allow public financing of campaigns","summary":"Repeals the 1988 ban on public financing so state and local governments may fund candidate campaigns subject to spending limits.","type":"legislative referral statute","category":"government_ethics","group":"government_ethics","lean":"D","campaign":"SB 42, California Fair Elections Act of 2026, placed by Legislature. No major campaign money reported.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":51.2,"p10":45.3,"p90":56.8,"prob":0.573},"prior":74.1,"pollAvg":45.9,"pollWeight":3.49,"polls":[{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-25","n":1477,"pop":"LV","yes":41,"no":41,"und":18,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt1vp9q3f9/qt1vp9q3f9.pdf","adj":47.0},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":45,"no":52,"und":3,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf","adj":46.0},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-15","end":"2026-09-20","n":2251,"pop":"LV","yes":35,"no":35,"und":30,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","adj":45.0},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":42,"no":53,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":43.7}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf"],"counties":{"06001":58.2,"06003":52.0,"06005":43.8,"06007":47.8,"06009":43.9,"06011":42.2,"06013":53.3,"06015":45.2,"06017":46.6,"06019":48.8,"06021":41.9,"06023":51.8,"06025":46.6,"06027":47.1,"06029":44.2,"06031":43.9,"06033":48.1,"06035":38.4,"06037":52.0,"06039":43.2,"06041":59.1,"06043":44.7,"06045":52.3,"06047":46.9,"06049":40.9,"06051":49.9,"06053":51.9,"06055":53.4,"06057":49.5,"06059":47.5,"06061":46.7,"06063":46.1,"06065":47.2,"06067":52.8,"06069":47.7,"06071":46.7,"06073":51.8,"06075":61.0,"06077":49.7,"06079":49.7,"06081":55.7,"06083":51.4,"06085":55.5,"06087":57.0,"06089":42.0,"06091":44.9,"06093":45.4,"06095":51.3,"06097":55.8,"06099":46.2,"06101":42.2,"06103":41.1,"06105":47.5,"06107":44.2,"06109":44.8,"06111":49.7,"06113":52.7,"06115":43.0},"votes":{"yes":6490226,"no":6196952,"total":12687178}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-5","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-5","label":"Proposition 5","title":"Recall: remove successor election","summary":"Replaces the two question recall with a single yes or no removal vote; a recalled governor is succeeded by the lieutenant governor.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"elections_voting","lean":"D","campaign":"SCA 1 placed by Democratic legislature after 2021 Newsom recall.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":49.6,"p10":43.1,"p90":55.8,"prob":0.4605},"prior":70.0,"pollAvg":43.2,"pollWeight":1.52,"polls":[{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":45,"no":52,"und":3,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf","adj":46.0},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":35,"no":59,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":37.0}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/"],"counties":{"06001":66.5,"06003":51.4,"06005":29.6,"06007":39.9,"06009":29.5,"06011":29.5,"06013":54.4,"06015":32.8,"06017":37.1,"06019":43.3,"06021":27.6,"06023":48.5,"06025":36.9,"06027":38.3,"06029":33.0,"06031":31.8,"06033":35.9,"06035":22.5,"06037":51.9,"06039":32.5,"06041":65.9,"06043":33.0,"06045":45.4,"06047":36.6,"06049":25.1,"06051":45.4,"06053":49.1,"06055":51.8,"06057":43.7,"06059":43.5,"06061":39.0,"06063":32.0,"06065":39.2,"06067":51.7,"06069":42.1,"06071":38.9,"06073":52.9,"06075":72.0,"06077":43.5,"06079":45.3,"06081":59.8,"06083":50.5,"06085":61.9,"06087":60.7,"06089":28.0,"06091":30.7,"06093":31.9,"06095":46.7,"06097":55.1,"06099":35.1,"06101":29.5,"06103":26.1,"06105":33.3,"06107":32.4,"06109":31.8,"06111":45.3,"06113":55.9,"06115":30.7},"votes":{"yes":6287033,"no":6400141,"total":12687174}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-37","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-37","label":"Proposition 37","title":"Loans for middle income buyers of new homes","summary":"Authorizes 25 billion in bonds to fund fixed rate second mortgages on new homes for buyers up to 200 percent of area median income, repaid by borrowers.","type":"initiated statute","category":"housing","group":"housing","lean":"none","campaign":"Citizen initiative; includes opt-in builder track trading labor enforcement for friendlier defect rules.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":62.3,"p10":56.3,"p90":68.2,"prob":0.9965},"prior":54.0,"pollAvg":64.7,"pollWeight":1.52,"polls":[{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":65,"no":32,"und":4,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf","adj":65.7},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":61,"no":35,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":62.3}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/"],"counties":{"06001":70.0,"06003":62.2,"06005":53.2,"06007":58.3,"06009":53.0,"06011":54.3,"06013":63.0,"06015":55.2,"06017":55.8,"06019":62.8,"06021":53.3,"06023":61.9,"06025":58.2,"06027":56.7,"06029":56.0,"06031":56.0,"06033":56.7,"06035":50.3,"06037":62.5,"06039":55.7,"06041":66.6,"06043":53.9,"06045":60.5,"06047":58.4,"06049":50.0,"06051":60.4,"06053":62.2,"06055":62.2,"06057":58.3,"06059":58.6,"06061":56.7,"06063":54.2,"06065":58.1,"06067":65.5,"06069":60.0,"06071":58.3,"06073":65.4,"06075":72.0,"06077":63.0,"06079":59.9,"06081":64.8,"06083":62.3,"06085":68.2,"06087":66.2,"06089":52.7,"06091":53.2,"06093":54.2,"06095":60.9,"06097":63.9,"06099":57.1,"06101":54.0,"06103":51.8,"06105":54.7,"06107":56.0,"06109":54.1,"06111":60.0,"06113":64.7,"06115":55.2},"votes":{"yes":7908283,"no":4778893,"total":12687176}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-38","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-38","label":"Proposition 38","title":"Immunology research bonds","summary":"Authorizes 8.4 billion in general obligation bonds for immunology and immunotherapy research through an institute and competitive grants.","type":"initiated statute","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"Bankrolled by billionaire surgeon Gary Michelson. LAO estimates about 500 million a year from General Fund for about 25 years.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":58.1,"p10":51.8,"p90":64.3,"prob":0.947},"prior":61.1,"pollAvg":57.2,"pollWeight":1.52,"polls":[{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":57,"no":41,"und":2,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf","adj":57.7},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":55,"no":42,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":56.0}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/"],"counties":{"06001":67.4,"06003":57.7,"06005":47.3,"06007":52.6,"06009":47.2,"06011":47.6,"06013":59.5,"06015":49.1,"06017":51.9,"06019":57.2,"06021":46.5,"06023":56.2,"06025":50.9,"06027":51.8,"06029":49.7,"06031":48.9,"06033":49.9,"06035":43.7,"06037":58.2,"06039":49.2,"06041":64.5,"06043":49.1,"06045":54.3,"06047":51.0,"06049":44.3,"06051":55.9,"06053":56.9,"06055":58.1,"06057":54.3,"06059":55.4,"06061":53.1,"06063":47.9,"06065":52.4,"06067":60.8,"06069":54.1,"06071":52.3,"06073":61.8,"06075":70.1,"06077":57.1,"06079":54.9,"06081":62.2,"06083":57.4,"06085":66.0,"06087":61.8,"06089":46.9,"06091":47.3,"06093":48.1,"06095":55.2,"06097":59.3,"06099":50.6,"06101":47.8,"06103":45.8,"06105":48.4,"06107":49.4,"06109":48.1,"06111":55.6,"06113":59.9,"06115":48.4},"votes":{"yes":7367466,"no":5319711,"total":12687177}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-39","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-39","label":"Proposition 39","title":"Voter ID and citizenship verification","summary":"Requires photo ID to vote in person, an ID number on mail ballots, and citizenship verification for voter registration.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"voter_id","group":"voter_id","lean":"R","campaign":"Republican backed initiative; Democrats strongly opposed. Likely federal preemption litigation.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":44.6,"p10":39.2,"p90":50.2,"prob":0.1125},"prior":55.1,"pollAvg":42.5,"pollWeight":4.62,"polls":[{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-25","n":1477,"pop":"LV","yes":37,"no":57,"und":5,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt1vp9q3f9/qt1vp9q3f9.pdf","adj":39.1},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":41,"no":58,"und":null,"url":"https://sfstandard.com/2026/10/27/billionaire-tax-prop-40-ppic-poll-october/","adj":41.3},{"pollster":"IVC Media for Independent Voter Project","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-09-23","end":"2026-10-02","n":2906,"pop":"LV","yes":43,"no":40,"und":17,"url":"https://ivn.us/new-ca-poll-voter-id-measure-leads-today-its-undecided-voters-point-the-other-way/","adj":48.7},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-15","end":"2026-09-20","n":4512,"pop":"LV","yes":39,"no":52,"und":9,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","adj":42.0},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":43,"no":55,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":43.7},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-03","end":"2026-08-09","n":2310,"pop":"LV","yes":42,"no":51,"und":7,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt2zw023kt/qt2zw023kt.pdf","adj":44.3}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","https://escholarship.org/content/qt2zw023kt/qt2zw023kt.pdf","https://www.kqed.org/news/12095116/california-billionaire-tax-has-strong-support-of-democratic-voters-new-poll-shows"],"counties":{"06001":31.7,"06003":44.7,"06005":65.1,"06007":56.3,"06009":65.5,"06011":61.8,"06013":38.7,"06015":61.4,"06017":58.7,"06019":53.0,"06021":66.5,"06023":46.6,"06025":47.8,"06027":56.2,"06029":58.9,"06031":59.6,"06033":57.5,"06035":73.2,"06037":38.9,"06039":59.2,"06041":29.3,"06043":62.1,"06045":47.5,"06047":53.5,"06049":71.2,"06051":48.7,"06053":41.4,"06055":41.4,"06057":51.4,"06059":51.2,"06061":56.9,"06063":62.6,"06065":51.8,"06067":46.3,"06069":47.6,"06071":51.3,"06073":46.2,"06075":27.7,"06077":52.9,"06079":50.5,"06081":34.7,"06083":43.2,"06085":38.1,"06087":33.9,"06089":68.2,"06091":64.8,"06093":62.9,"06095":44.4,"06097":38.3,"06099":57.2,"06101":65.1,"06103":69.5,"06105":60.7,"06107":58.8,"06109":63.3,"06111":47.4,"06113":40.0,"06115":63.7},"votes":{"yes":5659087,"no":7028092,"total":12687179}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-40","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-40","label":"Proposition 40","title":"One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax","summary":"Imposes a one time 5 percent tax on net worth above 1 billion dollars for certain individuals and trusts; 90 percent to health care, 10 percent to schools and food aid.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment and statute","category":"taxes_sales_other","group":"taxes_sales_other","lean":"D","campaign":"Placed by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West; opposed by billionaire funded campaigns behind Props 41 and 42.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority, but Props 41 and 42 contain conflict provisions that can nullify Prop 40 if they pass with more yes votes.","est":{"yes":48.7,"p10":43.0,"p90":54.3,"prob":0.401},"prior":54.8,"pollAvg":47.5,"pollWeight":5.84,"polls":[{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-25","n":1477,"pop":"LV","yes":42,"no":50,"und":8,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt1vp9q3f9/qt1vp9q3f9.pdf","adj":44.7},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":46,"no":52,"und":2,"url":"https://sfstandard.com/2026/10/27/billionaire-tax-prop-40-ppic-poll-october/","adj":46.7},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research (POLITICO partner poll)","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-09","end":"2026-10-14","n":1149,"pop":"RV","yes":46,"no":43,"und":11,"url":"https://www.aol.com/articles/california-billionaire-tax-faces-spectacular-182639000.html","adj":49.7},{"pollster":"IVC Media for Independent Voter Project","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-09-23","end":"2026-10-02","n":2906,"pop":"LV","yes":38,"no":42,"und":null,"url":"https://ivn.us/new-ca-poll-voter-id-measure-leads-today-its-undecided-voters-point-the-other-way/","adj":44.7},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-15","end":"2026-09-20","n":4512,"pop":"LV","yes":45,"no":42,"und":13,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","adj":49.3},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research (POLITICO partner poll)","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-09-08","end":"2026-09-14","n":2418,"pop":"RV","yes":45,"no":43,"und":12,"url":"https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6103019-prop-40-support-drops/amp/","adj":49.0},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":52,"no":46,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":52.7},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-03","end":"2026-08-09","n":2310,"pop":"LV","yes":48,"no":41,"und":11,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt2zw023kt/qt2zw023kt.pdf","adj":51.7}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","https://www.ppic.org/press-release/likely-voters-send-mixed-signals-on-billionaire-wealth-tax-becerra-maintains-wide-lead-over-hilton/","https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","https://escholarship.org/content/qt2zw023kt/qt2zw023kt.pdf","https://www.kqed.org/news/12099825/california-billionaires-tax-has-a-slim-lead-in-new-poll-but-still-a-lot-of-work-to-do"],"counties":{"06001":58.7,"06003":50.7,"06005":37.6,"06007":43.0,"06009":37.6,"06011":37.6,"06013":51.8,"06015":40.2,"06017":40.3,"06019":45.0,"06021":36.1,"06023":50.4,"06025":44.0,"06027":42.8,"06029":39.0,"06031":38.8,"06033":43.9,"06035":31.2,"06037":50.7,"06039":39.2,"06041":59.4,"06043":38.9,"06045":50.4,"06047":43.3,"06049":33.2,"06051":47.7,"06053":50.4,"06055":51.4,"06057":46.0,"06059":43.1,"06061":40.9,"06063":40.4,"06065":43.2,"06067":50.2,"06069":46.4,"06071":43.1,"06073":49.0,"06075":62.4,"06077":45.9,"06079":45.9,"06081":55.0,"06083":49.6,"06085":54.3,"06087":57.3,"06089":35.5,"06091":38.6,"06093":39.7,"06095":48.9,"06097":54.7,"06099":41.3,"06101":36.7,"06103":34.3,"06105":42.1,"06107":39.2,"06109":39.1,"06111":46.5,"06113":52.0,"06115":38.1},"votes":{"yes":6182672,"no":6504499,"total":12687171}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-41","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-41","label":"Proposition 41","title":"Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule","summary":"Requires audits of programs funded by new state special taxes and bars new state taxes from being excluded from the voter approved Gann spending limit.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"taxes_sales_other","group":"taxes_sales_other","lean":"R","campaign":"Counter measure to Prop 40 backed by business and wealthy donors.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority; conflict provision with Prop 40 (whichever has more yes votes prevails on conflicting provisions).","est":{"yes":46.4,"p10":41.0,"p90":51.9,"prob":0.2045},"prior":45.2,"pollAvg":46.6,"pollWeight":3.78,"polls":[{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-25","n":1477,"pop":"LV","yes":38,"no":47,"und":16,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt1vp9q3f9/qt1vp9q3f9.pdf","adj":42.9},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":48,"no":49,"und":null,"url":"https://sfstandard.com/2026/10/27/billionaire-tax-prop-40-ppic-poll-october/","adj":49.0},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-15","end":"2026-09-20","n":4512,"pop":"LV","yes":37,"no":33,"und":30,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","adj":47.0},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":51,"no":44,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":52.7},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-03","end":"2026-08-09","n":2310,"pop":"LV","yes":35,"no":37,"und":28,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt2zw023kt/qt2zw023kt.pdf","adj":44.3}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","https://escholarship.org/content/qt2zw023kt/qt2zw023kt.pdf"],"counties":{"06001":36.8,"06003":44.0,"06005":59.5,"06007":52.7,"06009":59.7,"06011":59.4,"06013":41.9,"06015":56.6,"06017":54.7,"06019":53.0,"06021":61.1,"06023":45.2,"06025":53.0,"06027":53.1,"06029":57.2,"06031":57.8,"06033":53.6,"06035":66.3,"06037":43.5,"06039":57.3,"06041":33.7,"06043":57.5,"06045":46.4,"06047":53.4,"06049":64.7,"06051":46.9,"06053":44.7,"06055":43.2,"06057":49.3,"06059":50.5,"06061":53.5,"06063":57.3,"06065":52.4,"06067":47.0,"06069":49.1,"06071":52.6,"06073":47.2,"06075":32.6,"06077":52.4,"06079":49.2,"06081":38.0,"06083":45.1,"06085":40.6,"06087":37.1,"06089":61.4,"06091":58.9,"06093":57.6,"06095":46.7,"06097":40.2,"06099":54.9,"06101":59.9,"06103":62.9,"06105":55.7,"06107":57.2,"06109":58.1,"06111":48.1,"06113":42.1,"06115":58.6},"votes":{"yes":5884334,"no":6802845,"total":12687179}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-42","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-42","label":"Proposition 42","title":"Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes","summary":"Prohibits new state taxes on personal property such as financial assets and most retroactive state taxes.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"R","campaign":"Counter measure to Prop 40 funded by billionaires per news reports.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority; conflict provision with Prop 40.","est":{"yes":50.7,"p10":45.2,"p90":56.3,"prob":0.57},"prior":54.2,"pollAvg":50.0,"pollWeight":3.78,"polls":[{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-25","n":1477,"pop":"LV","yes":43,"no":45,"und":12,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt1vp9q3f9/qt1vp9q3f9.pdf","adj":47.0},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":51,"no":47,"und":2,"url":"https://sfstandard.com/2026/10/27/billionaire-tax-prop-40-ppic-poll-october/","adj":51.7},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-15","end":"2026-09-20","n":4512,"pop":"LV","yes":43,"no":34,"und":23,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","adj":50.7},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":54,"no":43,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":55.0},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-08-03","end":"2026-08-09","n":2310,"pop":"LV","yes":40,"no":37,"und":23,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt2zw023kt/qt2zw023kt.pdf","adj":47.7}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","https://escholarship.org/content/qt2zw023kt/qt2zw023kt.pdf"],"counties":{"06001":43.5,"06003":53.0,"06005":64.9,"06007":55.8,"06009":65.4,"06011":62.6,"06013":47.7,"06015":61.9,"06017":57.9,"06019":54.9,"06021":64.2,"06023":53.6,"06025":55.9,"06027":60.4,"06029":57.4,"06031":57.5,"06033":61.4,"06035":66.9,"06037":48.5,"06039":60.8,"06041":43.2,"06043":64.1,"06045":56.4,"06047":55.0,"06049":69.9,"06051":53.6,"06053":49.8,"06055":49.8,"06057":58.4,"06059":53.2,"06061":56.3,"06063":64.9,"06065":55.1,"06067":51.0,"06069":54.6,"06071":54.3,"06073":50.7,"06075":40.5,"06077":54.7,"06079":54.0,"06081":45.0,"06083":50.1,"06085":46.0,"06087":44.6,"06089":64.9,"06091":65.9,"06093":64.4,"06095":51.7,"06097":47.8,"06099":56.4,"06101":62.8,"06103":65.9,"06105":64.4,"06107":57.6,"06109":64.4,"06111":52.1,"06113":46.5,"06115":61.1},"votes":{"yes":6431413,"no":6255760,"total":12687173}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-43","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-43","label":"Proposition 43","title":"Two thirds vote for local special taxes","summary":"Requires two thirds voter approval for new local special taxes, including those placed by citizen initiative, prospectively.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_sales_other","group":"supermajority","lean":"R","campaign":"ACA 22 placed by Legislature in deal with Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association to withdraw a broader initiative.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":42.0,"p10":36.7,"p90":47.5,"prob":0.03},"prior":39.8,"pollAvg":42.4,"pollWeight":3.49,"polls":[{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-25","n":1477,"pop":"LV","yes":36,"no":46,"und":18,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt1vp9q3f9/qt1vp9q3f9.pdf","adj":42.0},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":42,"no":55,"und":3,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf","adj":43.0},{"pollster":"UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies","sponsor":"Berkeley IGS","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-15","end":"2026-09-20","n":4512,"pop":"LV","yes":31,"no":40,"und":29,"url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf","adj":40.7},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":43,"no":51,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":45.0}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","https://escholarship.org/content/qt3w14s99c/qt3w14s99c.pdf"],"counties":{"06001":32.9,"06003":44.1,"06005":58.8,"06007":47.6,"06009":58.8,"06011":59.4,"06013":37.5,"06015":56.5,"06017":48.8,"06019":48.3,"06021":60.9,"06023":45.8,"06025":48.8,"06027":52.5,"06029":52.5,"06031":53.4,"06033":53.7,"06035":65.8,"06037":39.2,"06039":57.4,"06041":29.6,"06043":56.4,"06045":46.9,"06047":49.4,"06049":62.9,"06051":47.4,"06053":40.5,"06055":38.6,"06057":48.6,"06059":44.9,"06061":47.7,"06063":56.6,"06065":47.7,"06067":42.6,"06069":50.0,"06071":48.2,"06073":42.2,"06075":28.9,"06077":48.0,"06079":43.9,"06081":33.7,"06083":40.5,"06085":35.9,"06087":33.4,"06089":60.6,"06091":57.8,"06093":57.0,"06095":42.5,"06097":36.2,"06099":50.4,"06101":59.6,"06103":62.1,"06105":55.2,"06107":52.6,"06109":57.3,"06111":43.2,"06113":37.8,"06115":58.9},"votes":{"yes":5326922,"no":7360249,"total":12687171}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-44","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-44","label":"Proposition 44","title":"Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services","summary":"Requires nonprofit community health clinics to spend at least 90 percent of revenue on patient care and mission related program services.","type":"initiated statute","category":"health_care","group":"health_care","lean":"none","campaign":"Placed by SEIU-UHW after AB 1113 died; clinics oppose and are challenging it in federal court.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":33.9,"p10":28.4,"p90":39.8,"prob":0.0005},"prior":52.5,"pollAvg":29.0,"pollWeight":1.52,"polls":[{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":25,"no":71,"und":4,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf","adj":26.3},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":34,"no":61,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":35.7}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/"],"counties":{"06001":34.1,"06003":33.9,"06005":34.4,"06007":33.8,"06009":34.5,"06011":33.8,"06013":34.1,"06015":34.1,"06017":34.0,"06019":33.7,"06021":33.8,"06023":33.9,"06025":33.9,"06027":34.3,"06029":33.6,"06031":33.7,"06033":34.5,"06035":34.0,"06037":34.0,"06039":33.7,"06041":34.1,"06043":34.6,"06045":34.4,"06047":33.5,"06049":34.9,"06051":33.5,"06053":33.7,"06055":34.0,"06057":34.4,"06059":33.6,"06061":33.8,"06063":34.8,"06065":34.0,"06067":34.0,"06069":33.4,"06071":33.9,"06073":33.7,"06075":33.7,"06077":33.9,"06079":34.0,"06081":33.7,"06083":33.7,"06085":33.5,"06087":33.6,"06089":34.0,"06091":34.8,"06093":34.6,"06095":34.6,"06097":33.9,"06099":33.6,"06101":33.7,"06103":34.0,"06105":34.9,"06107":33.4,"06109":34.6,"06111":33.7,"06113":33.3,"06115":33.6},"votes":{"yes":4296870,"no":8390306,"total":12687176}},{"id":"bm-CA-proposition-45","st":"CA","slug":"proposition-45","label":"Proposition 45","title":"Fast track CEQA review for essential projects","summary":"Speeds and narrows environmental review and judicial challenges under CEQA for housing, water, clean energy and other essential projects.","type":"initiated statute","category":"environment_energy","group":"environment_energy","lean":"none","campaign":"Over 13.7 million in supporter funding; no organized opposition committee reported as of March 31, 2026.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":49.9,"p10":43.3,"p90":56.1,"prob":0.4775},"prior":55.0,"pollAvg":48.3,"pollWeight":1.52,"polls":[{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-16","end":"2026-10-22","n":1086,"pop":"LV","yes":46,"no":50,"und":4,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf","adj":47.3},{"pollster":"Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)","sponsor":"PPIC","side":"independent","start":"2026-09-04","end":"2026-09-10","n":1103,"pop":"LV","yes":49,"no":46,"und":null,"url":"https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","adj":50.7}],"sources":["https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ccrov/2026/june/26179jj.pdf","https://growsf.org/news/2026-07-02-14-state-measures/","https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/","https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2026/09/23/california-voters-back-billionaire-tax-and-measures-that-could-block-it-new-poll-finds/190410/"],"counties":{"06001":52.7,"06003":55.3,"06005":50.1,"06007":47.9,"06009":50.3,"06011":49.3,"06013":51.1,"06015":50.1,"06017":49.1,"06019":46.8,"06021":49.1,"06023":52.9,"06025":44.1,"06027":52.7,"06029":45.4,"06031":44.2,"06033":49.3,"06035":48.4,"06037":49.7,"06039":50.2,"06041":54.2,"06043":52.3,"06045":51.0,"06047":44.3,"06049":50.7,"06051":53.5,"06053":48.2,"06055":50.0,"06057":54.3,"06059":51.2,"06061":50.0,"06063":49.8,"06065":46.8,"06067":48.5,"06069":51.4,"06071":46.2,"06073":51.0,"06075":54.7,"06077":46.0,"06079":49.7,"06081":53.0,"06083":50.0,"06085":53.7,"06087":51.0,"06089":50.6,"06091":50.5,"06093":50.2,"06095":47.0,"06097":49.4,"06099":45.4,"06101":50.3,"06103":49.9,"06105":49.5,"06107":45.1,"06109":50.6,"06111":49.3,"06113":51.4,"06115":49.5},"votes":{"yes":6325395,"no":6361781,"total":12687176}},{"id":"bm-AZ-proposition-141","st":"AZ","slug":"proposition-141","label":"Proposition 141","title":"Ban vehicle miles traveled taxes","summary":"Bars state and local taxes or fees based on vehicle miles traveled and bars monitoring or limiting mileage without consent.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"taxes_sales_other","group":"taxes_sales_other","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":60.2,"p10":46.7,"p90":72.3,"prob":0.8385},"prior":60.2,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/423399","https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/16/voter-id-dei-more-what-know-about-8-statewide-ballot-proposals/","https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2026/08/25/statewide-ballot-measures-propositions-arizona-election-2026-"],"counties":{"04001":55.6,"04003":64.8,"04005":53.7,"04007":68.8,"04009":70.6,"04011":68.7,"04012":71.2,"04013":59.4,"04015":73.4,"04017":63.7,"04019":55.6,"04021":64.6,"04025":67.4,"04027":64.6,"04023":55.5},"votes":{"yes":1802665,"no":1192042,"total":2994707}},{"id":"bm-AZ-proposition-142","st":"AZ","slug":"proposition-142","label":"Proposition 142","title":"Ban race based preferences and DEI mandates","summary":"Expands the 2010 affirmative action ban to bar public bodies from race or ethnicity preferences and compelled DEI training or offices.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"civil_rights","group":"civil_rights","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":56.0,"p10":42.9,"p90":68.4,"prob":0.7255},"prior":56.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/423399","https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/16/voter-id-dei-more-what-know-about-8-statewide-ballot-proposals/","https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2026/08/25/statewide-ballot-measures-propositions-arizona-election-2026-"],"counties":{"04001":51.7,"04003":62.2,"04005":47.9,"04007":68.5,"04009":71.8,"04011":69.2,"04012":70.9,"04013":54.8,"04015":74.5,"04017":62.1,"04019":49.5,"04021":62.4,"04025":66.0,"04027":63.0,"04023":50.7},"votes":{"yes":1677475,"no":1317231,"total":2994706}},{"id":"bm-AZ-proposition-144","st":"AZ","slug":"proposition-144","label":"Proposition 144","title":"Voter ID for all voters including mail","summary":"Requires government ID for every voter including mail voters, limits voting to citizens, bars foreign election contributions; effective 2028.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"voter_id","group":"voter_id","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found. Arizona Supreme Court rejected a challenge to remove it from the ballot.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":72.9,"p10":60.5,"p90":82.1,"prob":0.992},"prior":72.9,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/423399","https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/16/voter-id-dei-more-what-know-about-8-statewide-ballot-proposals/","https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2026/08/25/statewide-ballot-measures-propositions-arizona-election-2026-"],"counties":{"04001":71.0,"04003":77.6,"04005":67.2,"04007":82.9,"04009":84.4,"04011":81.7,"04012":84.3,"04013":72.1,"04015":86.9,"04017":78.7,"04019":67.2,"04021":78.1,"04025":81.4,"04027":76.1,"04023":62.0},"votes":{"yes":2182292,"no":812415,"total":2994707}},{"id":"bm-AZ-proposition-316","st":"AZ","slug":"proposition-316","label":"Proposition 316","title":"Cap local grocery taxes at 2 percent","summary":"Caps municipal sales taxes on food for home consumption at 2 percent and requires voter approval for new or higher food taxes.","type":"legislative referral statute","category":"taxes_sales_other","group":"taxes_sales_other","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":60.2,"p10":46.4,"p90":72.2,"prob":0.8355},"prior":60.2,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/423399","https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/16/voter-id-dei-more-what-know-about-8-statewide-ballot-proposals/","https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2026/08/25/statewide-ballot-measures-propositions-arizona-election-2026-"],"counties":{"04001":55.6,"04003":64.8,"04005":53.7,"04007":68.8,"04009":70.6,"04011":68.7,"04012":71.2,"04013":59.4,"04015":73.4,"04017":63.7,"04019":55.6,"04021":64.6,"04025":67.4,"04027":64.6,"04023":55.5},"votes":{"yes":1802665,"no":1192042,"total":2994707}},{"id":"bm-AZ-proposition-317","st":"AZ","slug":"proposition-317","label":"Proposition 317","title":"Designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations","summary":"Designates drug cartels as terrorist organizations under state law and directs the state Department of Homeland Security to address them.","type":"legislative referral statute","category":"criminal_justice","group":"criminal_justice","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found. Introduced by House Speaker Steve Montenegro.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":73.4,"p10":61.4,"p90":82.7,"prob":0.9915},"prior":73.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/423399","https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/16/voter-id-dei-more-what-know-about-8-statewide-ballot-proposals/","https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2026/08/25/statewide-ballot-measures-propositions-arizona-election-2026-"],"counties":{"04001":71.6,"04003":77.1,"04005":68.0,"04007":80.7,"04009":81.7,"04011":80.6,"04012":82.1,"04013":72.7,"04015":83.7,"04017":77.2,"04019":69.9,"04021":77.1,"04025":79.3,"04027":77.5,"04023":71.1},"votes":{"yes":2199415,"no":795291,"total":2994706}},{"id":"bm-AZ-proposition-318","st":"AZ","slug":"proposition-318","label":"Proposition 318","title":"Sex based school sports, restrooms, locker rooms","summary":"Requires teams designated by biological sex and bars transgender students from restrooms and locker rooms not matching birth sex.","type":"legislative referral statute","category":"lgbtq_rights","group":"lgbtq_rights","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":66.4,"p10":54.1,"p90":77.8,"prob":0.95},"prior":66.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/423399","https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/16/voter-id-dei-more-what-know-about-8-statewide-ballot-proposals/","https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2026/08/25/statewide-ballot-measures-propositions-arizona-election-2026-"],"counties":{"04001":59.0,"04003":73.2,"04005":59.0,"04007":77.3,"04009":81.3,"04011":79.2,"04012":78.9,"04013":65.6,"04015":82.8,"04017":71.3,"04019":58.7,"04021":73.8,"04025":76.7,"04027":73.6,"04023":60.0},"votes":{"yes":1988261,"no":1006441,"total":2994702}},{"id":"bm-AZ-proposition-319","st":"AZ","slug":"proposition-319","label":"Proposition 319","title":"Restrict photo radar traffic enforcement","summary":"Bars new photo radar enforcement; existing speed and red light cameras need local voter approval every 10 years to continue.","type":"legislative referral statute","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":61.7,"p10":48.9,"p90":74.0,"prob":0.8805},"prior":61.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/423399","https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/16/voter-id-dei-more-what-know-about-8-statewide-ballot-proposals/","https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2026/08/25/statewide-ballot-measures-propositions-arizona-election-2026-"],"counties":{"04001":55.9,"04003":62.8,"04005":60.0,"04007":62.9,"04009":64.5,"04011":64.1,"04012":62.7,"04013":62.1,"04015":65.0,"04017":60.8,"04019":59.7,"04021":61.9,"04025":64.0,"04027":60.9,"04023":57.2},"votes":{"yes":1848674,"no":1146033,"total":2994707}},{"id":"bm-AZ-proposition-320","st":"AZ","slug":"proposition-320","label":"Proposition 320","title":"Require 60 percent spending on instruction","summary":"Requires large school districts to spend at least 60 percent of operational budgets on direct instruction or face Classroom Site Fund cuts.","type":"legislative referral statute","category":"education","group":"education","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":58.9,"p10":46.0,"p90":71.3,"prob":0.815},"prior":58.9,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/423399","https://www.azfamily.com/2026/09/16/voter-id-dei-more-what-know-about-8-statewide-ballot-proposals/","https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2026/08/25/statewide-ballot-measures-propositions-arizona-election-2026-"],"counties":{"04001":48.3,"04003":57.7,"04005":52.4,"04007":59.3,"04009":62.5,"04011":60.9,"04012":59.8,"04013":60.1,"04015":63.2,"04017":55.7,"04019":56.5,"04021":57.0,"04025":59.5,"04027":56.4,"04023":49.1},"votes":{"yes":1763975,"no":1230732,"total":2994707}},{"id":"bm-CO-proposition-nn","st":"CO","slug":"proposition-nn","label":"Proposition NN","title":"Raise TABOR cap for K-12 school funding","summary":"Raises the TABOR revenue cap and keeps about 4.6 billion in surplus revenue for K-12 education.","type":"legislative referral statute","category":"education","group":"education","lean":"D","campaign":"Referred by Legislature (SB26-135). Colorado Democratic Party supports.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":67.1,"p10":54.5,"p90":77.9,"prob":0.9525},"prior":67.1,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":68.1,"08003":60.9,"08005":71.3,"08007":58.6,"08009":42.1,"08011":51.6,"08013":76.2,"08014":69.7,"08015":64.8,"08017":39.0,"08019":66.4,"08021":57.1,"08023":62.9,"08025":48.8,"08027":54.1,"08029":52.8,"08031":79.2,"08033":48.0,"08035":63.0,"08037":68.1,"08039":50.0,"08041":65.9,"08043":51.8,"08045":62.4,"08047":65.0,"08049":62.0,"08051":71.2,"08053":60.1,"08055":58.4,"08057":47.8,"08059":67.2,"08061":40.2,"08063":43.1,"08065":67.3,"08067":66.7,"08069":67.7,"08071":57.2,"08073":45.2,"08075":47.5,"08077":56.5,"08079":59.6,"08081":45.1,"08083":56.7,"08085":53.9,"08087":49.5,"08089":54.6,"08091":66.4,"08093":58.1,"08095":45.8,"08097":72.3,"08099":49.1,"08101":59.8,"08103":45.5,"08105":56.6,"08107":68.7,"08109":61.2,"08111":69.7,"08113":73.7,"08115":47.8,"08117":70.9,"08119":53.7,"08121":40.7,"08123":58.0,"08125":44.6},"votes":{"yes":1785260,"no":876704,"total":2661964}},{"id":"bm-CO-amendment-81","st":"CO","slug":"amendment-81","label":"Amendment 81","title":"Police must report undocumented violent offenders to DHS","summary":"Requires state and local police to notify federal DHS within 72 hours when a person charged with a violent crime or prior felony is not lawfully present.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"immigration","group":"immigration","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.","threshold":0.55,"thresholdNote":"55 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":51.8,"p10":38.6,"p90":64.9,"prob":0.373},"prior":51.8,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":50.0,"08003":61.5,"08005":46.1,"08007":65.3,"08009":84.9,"08011":73.5,"08013":35.0,"08014":47.6,"08015":55.4,"08017":87.6,"08019":53.9,"08021":64.7,"08023":53.7,"08025":76.7,"08027":72.7,"08029":72.8,"08031":30.4,"08033":78.8,"08035":60.7,"08037":49.9,"08039":77.5,"08041":57.0,"08043":73.8,"08045":58.8,"08047":55.0,"08049":60.4,"08051":47.0,"08053":64.6,"08055":63.6,"08057":79.6,"08059":51.5,"08061":86.5,"08063":83.8,"08065":52.2,"08067":52.8,"08069":51.6,"08071":64.7,"08073":82.3,"08075":79.5,"08077":68.4,"08079":64.8,"08081":81.9,"08083":67.8,"08085":71.5,"08087":76.4,"08089":68.9,"08091":53.0,"08093":66.3,"08095":81.5,"08097":42.5,"08099":76.9,"08101":60.6,"08103":82.0,"08105":67.3,"08107":49.4,"08109":59.0,"08111":46.7,"08113":40.0,"08115":79.4,"08117":45.1,"08119":72.6,"08121":86.4,"08123":65.8,"08125":82.5},"votes":{"yes":1379986,"no":1281973,"total":2661959}},{"id":"bm-CO-amendment-82","st":"CO","slug":"amendment-82","label":"Amendment 82","title":"Constitutional right to natural gas","summary":"Creates a consumer right to buy natural gas for cooking or heating and lets utilities and distributors sell it.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"environment_energy","group":"environment_energy","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.","threshold":0.55,"thresholdNote":"55 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":45.8,"p10":33.3,"p90":59.0,"prob":0.1815},"prior":45.8,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":48.9,"08003":57.8,"08005":42.5,"08007":59.7,"08009":79.5,"08011":70.2,"08013":28.0,"08014":37.8,"08015":50.6,"08017":82.2,"08019":47.5,"08021":63.1,"08023":54.6,"08025":73.6,"08027":65.6,"08029":68.1,"08031":28.7,"08033":73.2,"08035":47.9,"08037":45.3,"08039":71.2,"08041":51.7,"08043":69.5,"08045":55.3,"08047":44.8,"08049":55.0,"08051":40.5,"08053":57.4,"08055":60.9,"08057":73.5,"08059":42.1,"08061":81.5,"08063":78.9,"08065":47.0,"08067":47.9,"08069":41.7,"08071":63.2,"08073":76.5,"08075":74.7,"08077":63.4,"08079":57.8,"08081":77.0,"08083":63.0,"08085":66.7,"08087":72.7,"08089":66.5,"08091":47.4,"08093":60.3,"08095":75.7,"08097":37.9,"08099":73.1,"08101":54.4,"08103":76.6,"08105":63.0,"08107":44.4,"08109":56.5,"08111":43.4,"08113":35.5,"08115":74.0,"08117":40.7,"08119":66.4,"08121":80.9,"08123":56.7,"08125":77.2},"votes":{"yes":1218948,"no":1443014,"total":2661962}},{"id":"bm-CO-amendment-83","st":"CO","slug":"amendment-83","label":"Amendment 83","title":"Constitutional right to hunt and fish","summary":"Establishes a constitutional right to hunt, fish and take wildlife using traditional methods.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"animal","group":"animal","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Democratic Party took no listed position.","threshold":0.55,"thresholdNote":"55 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":62.2,"p10":49.2,"p90":73.9,"prob":0.76},"prior":62.2,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":61.2,"08003":66.7,"08005":60.8,"08007":67.4,"08009":75.6,"08011":69.5,"08013":55.5,"08014":60.3,"08015":63.9,"08017":77.5,"08019":64.3,"08021":66.9,"08023":62.3,"08025":70.6,"08027":70.6,"08029":69.5,"08031":55.2,"08033":72.4,"08035":65.5,"08037":62.9,"08039":72.4,"08041":64.8,"08043":69.7,"08045":64.9,"08047":62.1,"08049":65.8,"08051":62.9,"08053":67.7,"08055":65.7,"08057":73.1,"08059":61.1,"08061":76.3,"08063":74.9,"08065":64.0,"08067":63.4,"08069":61.5,"08071":65.9,"08073":74.5,"08075":72.6,"08077":68.3,"08079":67.8,"08081":73.8,"08083":67.8,"08085":69.3,"08087":71.1,"08089":67.8,"08091":63.3,"08093":67.8,"08095":74.4,"08097":60.2,"08099":71.4,"08101":62.9,"08103":74.1,"08105":68.3,"08107":62.3,"08109":64.4,"08111":61.2,"08113":59.4,"08115":72.9,"08117":61.0,"08119":70.2,"08121":76.7,"08123":65.8,"08125":74.6},"votes":{"yes":1654733,"no":1007234,"total":2661967}},{"id":"bm-CO-amendment-84","st":"CO","slug":"amendment-84","label":"Amendment 84","title":"ID number required on mail ballots","summary":"Requires mail voters to give a signature plus an ID number such as last four SSN digits, checked against registration records.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"voter_id","group":"voter_id","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.","threshold":0.55,"thresholdNote":"55 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":59.2,"p10":45.7,"p90":71.2,"prob":0.663},"prior":59.2,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":61.0,"08003":65.5,"08005":55.7,"08007":69.1,"08009":86.0,"08011":76.4,"08013":43.2,"08014":54.1,"08015":60.7,"08017":88.0,"08019":59.0,"08021":67.7,"08023":57.4,"08025":79.0,"08027":75.5,"08029":76.3,"08031":41.0,"08033":80.7,"08035":64.9,"08037":55.2,"08039":79.8,"08041":66.5,"08043":76.9,"08045":64.1,"08047":60.2,"08049":65.6,"08051":53.7,"08053":68.6,"08055":68.3,"08057":81.2,"08059":57.9,"08061":87.6,"08063":85.3,"08065":57.6,"08067":58.9,"08069":58.7,"08071":69.0,"08073":83.1,"08075":81.7,"08077":72.7,"08079":68.5,"08081":83.9,"08083":72.0,"08085":74.9,"08087":78.9,"08089":72.5,"08091":58.0,"08093":70.0,"08095":82.6,"08097":48.6,"08099":79.4,"08101":65.6,"08103":84.0,"08105":70.2,"08107":55.7,"08109":63.4,"08111":53.7,"08113":46.2,"08115":81.4,"08117":51.7,"08119":75.5,"08121":87.2,"08123":70.4,"08125":83.8},"votes":{"yes":1576803,"no":1085157,"total":2661960}},{"id":"bm-CO-amendment-85","st":"CO","slug":"amendment-85","label":"Amendment 85","title":"Plain language ballot questions","summary":"Requires ballot questions be written in plain language at no more than an eighth grade reading level.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"elections_voting","group":"elections_voting","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.","threshold":0.55,"thresholdNote":"55 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":43.0,"p10":30.4,"p90":56.7,"prob":0.1345},"prior":43.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":46.8,"08003":51.1,"08005":39.8,"08007":52.8,"08009":74.6,"08011":63.9,"08013":26.6,"08014":36.1,"08015":43.6,"08017":77.7,"08019":40.7,"08021":56.5,"08023":47.5,"08025":67.4,"08027":59.1,"08029":61.8,"08031":26.7,"08033":67.3,"08035":45.9,"08037":38.6,"08039":65.2,"08041":49.5,"08043":63.1,"08045":48.4,"08047":42.6,"08049":48.2,"08051":34.4,"08053":50.6,"08055":54.2,"08057":67.7,"08059":40.3,"08061":77.0,"08063":74.0,"08065":40.5,"08067":41.2,"08069":40.1,"08071":56.4,"08073":70.8,"08075":69.0,"08077":56.9,"08079":51.0,"08081":71.9,"08083":56.3,"08085":60.2,"08087":66.8,"08089":60.0,"08091":40.5,"08093":53.4,"08095":70.3,"08097":31.7,"08099":67.4,"08101":52.4,"08103":71.4,"08105":56.3,"08107":37.8,"08109":49.6,"08111":37.0,"08113":29.4,"08115":68.3,"08117":34.3,"08119":59.9,"08121":76.3,"08123":54.9,"08125":72.0},"votes":{"yes":1145621,"no":1516339,"total":2661960}},{"id":"bm-CO-amendment-86","st":"CO","slug":"amendment-86","label":"Amendment 86","title":"Limits on mid decade congressional redistricting","summary":"Requires both the independent commission and state Supreme Court to approve any mid decade congressional map and bars partisan maps.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"redistricting","group":"redistricting","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.","threshold":0.55,"thresholdNote":"55 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":38.8,"p10":26.6,"p90":52.0,"prob":0.0565},"prior":38.8,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":35.7,"08003":45.3,"08005":35.6,"08007":46.5,"08009":71.0,"08011":51.5,"08013":24.8,"08014":35.0,"08015":37.1,"08017":76.6,"08019":38.7,"08021":44.2,"08023":31.3,"08025":54.6,"08027":56.6,"08029":52.0,"08031":23.8,"08033":60.9,"08035":49.6,"08037":35.2,"08039":62.0,"08041":46.3,"08043":52.5,"08045":39.2,"08047":38.8,"08049":42.1,"08051":36.5,"08053":48.1,"08055":40.3,"08057":63.7,"08059":36.6,"08061":72.8,"08063":68.6,"08065":38.5,"08067":36.2,"08069":38.0,"08071":40.7,"08073":68.1,"08075":61.8,"08077":48.9,"08079":48.4,"08081":65.3,"08083":47.1,"08085":51.5,"08087":56.8,"08089":46.3,"08091":35.7,"08093":47.7,"08095":67.8,"08097":28.8,"08099":57.9,"08101":39.4,"08103":66.8,"08105":48.9,"08107":33.7,"08109":37.1,"08111":30.9,"08113":27.2,"08115":62.9,"08117":30.6,"08119":54.8,"08121":74.2,"08123":48.6,"08125":68.2},"votes":{"yes":1031951,"no":1630005,"total":2661956}},{"id":"bm-CO-amendment-87","st":"CO","slug":"amendment-87","label":"Amendment 87","title":"Graduated income tax for schools and health","summary":"Replaces the flat income tax with graduated rates from 3.7 to 8.4 percent, removing TABOR's single rate rule, funding K-12, health care, child care.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"taxes_income","group":"taxes_income","lean":"D","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party supports; Gov. Polis called it a 2.7 billion tax hike and Denver Gazette editorial board opposes.","threshold":0.55,"thresholdNote":"55 percent of the votes on the question","ruleNote":"Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure. Combined constitutional and statutory initiative. Conflicts with Prop 136; if both pass, the one with more yes votes prevails.","est":{"yes":50.0,"p10":36.9,"p90":63.2,"prob":0.33},"prior":50.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures","https://www.denvergazette.com/?p=608200"],"counties":{"08001":51.6,"08003":44.8,"08005":53.1,"08007":43.4,"08009":29.0,"08011":39.1,"08013":59.6,"08014":51.8,"08015":49.3,"08017":25.5,"08019":49.0,"08021":43.8,"08023":51.5,"08025":36.9,"08027":38.3,"08029":39.6,"08031":62.0,"08033":34.6,"08035":43.2,"08037":51.0,"08039":34.3,"08041":46.7,"08043":38.9,"08045":47.3,"08047":48.4,"08049":46.1,"08051":52.1,"08053":43.7,"08055":46.3,"08057":33.8,"08059":50.2,"08061":27.6,"08063":30.1,"08065":49.6,"08067":50.4,"08069":50.2,"08071":45.4,"08073":30.8,"08075":34.0,"08077":41.8,"08079":43.1,"08081":31.8,"08083":42.7,"08085":40.1,"08087":36.4,"08089":42.2,"08091":50.7,"08093":42.4,"08095":31.1,"08097":55.8,"08099":36.1,"08101":46.7,"08103":31.4,"08105":41.8,"08107":52.0,"08109":48.1,"08111":53.8,"08113":57.0,"08115":33.9,"08117":54.2,"08119":38.4,"08121":27.3,"08123":42.0,"08125":30.7},"votes":{"yes":1330676,"no":1331283,"total":2661959}},{"id":"bm-CO-proposition-132","st":"CO","slug":"proposition-132","label":"Proposition 132","title":"Tougher fentanyl penalties","summary":"Raises felony penalties for fentanyl distribution and possession and requires court ordered treatment for low level possession.","type":"initiated statute","category":"criminal_justice","group":"criminal_justice","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":64.0,"p10":50.8,"p90":75.5,"prob":0.914},"prior":64.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":65.3,"08003":68.6,"08005":61.7,"08007":70.8,"08009":81.7,"08011":74.6,"08013":53.7,"08014":61.2,"08015":65.3,"08017":83.5,"08019":64.7,"08021":71.2,"08023":65.4,"08025":75.9,"08027":74.5,"08029":74.5,"08031":52.7,"08033":78.2,"08035":68.1,"08037":62.6,"08039":77.1,"08041":68.0,"08043":74.7,"08045":67.2,"08047":65.2,"08049":68.0,"08051":60.3,"08053":70.0,"08055":70.0,"08057":78.3,"08059":63.5,"08061":82.8,"08063":81.0,"08065":63.7,"08067":63.9,"08069":63.1,"08071":70.5,"08073":79.4,"08075":77.8,"08077":72.0,"08079":70.4,"08081":79.8,"08083":71.7,"08085":73.8,"08087":76.4,"08089":72.7,"08091":64.2,"08093":71.1,"08095":79.8,"08097":58.4,"08099":77.0,"08101":68.5,"08103":79.7,"08105":72.0,"08107":62.1,"08109":68.0,"08111":60.7,"08113":56.8,"08115":78.1,"08117":59.7,"08119":74.4,"08121":82.6,"08123":71.0,"08125":80.3},"votes":{"yes":1704802,"no":957162,"total":2661964}},{"id":"bm-CO-proposition-133","st":"CO","slug":"proposition-133","label":"Proposition 133","title":"Life without parole for child sex trafficking","summary":"Requires life in prison without parole for those convicted of trafficking children for sexual servitude.","type":"initiated statute","category":"criminal_justice","group":"criminal_justice","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Democratic Party took no listed position.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":64.0,"p10":50.9,"p90":75.2,"prob":0.914},"prior":64.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":66.4,"08003":69.3,"08005":61.7,"08007":71.3,"08009":82.8,"08011":76.4,"08013":52.5,"08014":60.4,"08015":65.4,"08017":84.4,"08019":64.1,"08021":72.7,"08023":67.0,"08025":77.9,"08027":74.9,"08029":75.8,"08031":51.8,"08033":79.2,"08035":67.3,"08037":62.2,"08039":77.8,"08041":68.3,"08043":76.1,"08045":68.0,"08047":64.9,"08049":68.3,"08051":59.1,"08053":70.0,"08055":71.5,"08057":79.2,"08059":63.2,"08061":84.0,"08063":82.3,"08065":63.3,"08067":63.8,"08069":62.8,"08071":72.3,"08073":80.4,"08075":79.2,"08077":73.0,"08079":70.4,"08081":81.1,"08083":72.8,"08085":75.0,"08087":78.0,"08089":74.4,"08091":63.9,"08093":71.5,"08095":80.7,"08097":57.4,"08099":78.6,"08101":70.0,"08103":80.9,"08105":72.9,"08107":61.7,"08109":69.0,"08111":60.6,"08113":55.5,"08115":79.3,"08117":59.1,"08119":75.1,"08121":83.6,"08123":71.8,"08125":81.4},"votes":{"yes":1704803,"no":957157,"total":2661960}},{"id":"bm-CO-proposition-134","st":"CO","slug":"proposition-134","label":"Proposition 134","title":"School sports teams by biological sex","summary":"Requires student athletes to play on school and college teams matching their biological sex.","type":"initiated statute","category":"lgbtq_rights","group":"lgbtq_rights","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":52.1,"p10":38.9,"p90":64.7,"prob":0.582},"prior":52.1,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":52.6,"08003":61.9,"08005":47.9,"08007":61.8,"08009":83.6,"08011":71.6,"08013":34.5,"08014":47.0,"08015":51.4,"08017":87.0,"08019":50.2,"08021":64.2,"08023":51.6,"08025":75.2,"08027":69.8,"08029":69.8,"08031":32.1,"08033":75.9,"08035":60.9,"08037":47.7,"08039":76.1,"08041":59.4,"08043":71.1,"08045":56.6,"08047":52.9,"08049":57.2,"08051":45.7,"08053":60.9,"08055":59.7,"08057":77.4,"08059":50.6,"08061":85.4,"08063":82.7,"08065":51.0,"08067":49.7,"08069":51.5,"08071":62.1,"08073":81.3,"08075":78.3,"08077":66.0,"08079":61.4,"08081":80.7,"08083":64.5,"08085":68.8,"08087":75.5,"08089":67.0,"08091":47.9,"08093":62.9,"08095":80.6,"08097":38.7,"08099":75.9,"08101":60.3,"08103":81.0,"08105":65.7,"08107":46.0,"08109":55.3,"08111":44.5,"08113":36.3,"08115":77.9,"08117":42.1,"08119":69.8,"08121":85.6,"08123":66.3,"08125":81.7},"votes":{"yes":1387698,"no":1274262,"total":2661960}},{"id":"bm-CO-proposition-135","st":"CO","slug":"proposition-135","label":"Proposition 135","title":"Ban gender transition surgeries for minors","summary":"Bans surgeries on minors intended to change sex characteristics and bars public funds or insurance from paying for them.","type":"initiated statute","category":"lgbtq_rights","group":"lgbtq_rights","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":52.1,"p10":38.8,"p90":65.2,"prob":0.5725},"prior":52.1,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":51.1,"08003":62.5,"08005":46.5,"08007":63.3,"08009":84.4,"08011":72.7,"08013":35.1,"08014":48.1,"08015":53.0,"08017":87.6,"08019":51.8,"08021":65.4,"08023":53.2,"08025":76.1,"08027":71.1,"08029":71.0,"08031":30.7,"08033":77.3,"08035":62.0,"08037":49.0,"08039":77.0,"08041":57.8,"08043":72.3,"08045":57.7,"08047":54.5,"08049":58.5,"08051":46.3,"08053":62.3,"08055":61.2,"08057":78.5,"08059":51.8,"08061":86.1,"08063":83.5,"08065":51.9,"08067":50.9,"08069":52.2,"08071":63.4,"08073":82.1,"08075":79.0,"08077":67.1,"08079":62.9,"08081":81.5,"08083":65.8,"08085":70.0,"08087":76.3,"08089":68.2,"08091":49.7,"08093":64.4,"08095":81.5,"08097":40.1,"08099":76.8,"08101":61.5,"08103":81.7,"08105":67.0,"08107":47.3,"08109":57.0,"08111":45.4,"08113":37.6,"08115":78.8,"08117":43.3,"08119":71.2,"08121":86.2,"08123":67.2,"08125":82.5},"votes":{"yes":1387700,"no":1274263,"total":2661963}},{"id":"bm-CO-proposition-136","st":"CO","slug":"proposition-136","label":"Proposition 136","title":"Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent","summary":"Caps individual and corporate income tax rates at 4.4 percent of federal taxable income.","type":"initiated statute","category":"taxes_income","group":"taxes_income","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes; Gov. Polis predicted it would pass.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority. Competes with Amendment 87; if both pass, the one with more yes votes prevails.","est":{"yes":50.0,"p10":36.6,"p90":62.6,"prob":0.5095},"prior":50.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures","https://www.denvergazette.com/?p=608200"],"counties":{"08001":51.8,"08003":56.3,"08005":48.1,"08007":57.4,"08009":73.8,"08011":64.6,"08013":37.2,"08014":45.1,"08015":50.4,"08017":76.2,"08019":48.6,"08021":59.1,"08023":52.1,"08025":67.1,"08027":62.7,"08029":63.7,"08031":37.2,"08033":67.9,"08035":53.4,"08037":46.5,"08039":66.5,"08041":55.4,"08043":64.3,"08045":53.3,"08047":49.9,"08049":53.7,"08051":44.5,"08053":56.7,"08055":57.6,"08057":68.9,"08059":48.1,"08061":75.3,"08063":72.8,"08065":48.5,"08067":48.7,"08069":48.5,"08071":58.8,"08073":71.0,"08075":69.1,"08077":60.1,"08079":56.6,"08081":70.9,"08083":59.6,"08085":62.6,"08087":66.9,"08089":61.6,"08091":48.5,"08093":57.6,"08095":70.5,"08097":41.3,"08099":67.6,"08101":56.1,"08103":70.9,"08105":59.8,"08107":45.9,"08109":54.0,"08111":45.0,"08113":39.3,"08115":68.9,"08117":43.1,"08119":62.6,"08121":75.2,"08123":58.6,"08125":71.6},"votes":{"yes":1331286,"no":1330683,"total":2661969}},{"id":"bm-CO-proposition-137","st":"CO","slug":"proposition-137","label":"Proposition 137","title":"Sporting goods sales tax for conservation","summary":"Exempts sporting goods sales tax revenue from TABOR refunds and dedicates it to water, land, forest conservation and wildfire prevention.","type":"initiated statute","category":"environment_energy","group":"environment_energy","lean":"none","campaign":"Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":55.0,"p10":41.6,"p90":67.5,"prob":0.693},"prior":55.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/colorado-voters-will-decide-on-14-ballot-measures-in-2026/","https://www.koaa.com/americavotes/colorados-2026-general-election-ballot-has-been-certified-what-you-need-to-know","https://www.coloradodems.org/press/colorado-democrats-finalize-positions-on-2026-ballot-measures"],"counties":{"08001":51.9,"08003":57.5,"08005":54.3,"08007":57.6,"08009":55.1,"08011":54.4,"08013":56.7,"08014":56.0,"08015":58.6,"08017":55.6,"08019":60.3,"08021":55.5,"08023":55.3,"08025":53.7,"08027":57.7,"08029":55.4,"08031":56.3,"08033":55.8,"08035":56.2,"08037":60.1,"08039":56.9,"08041":53.5,"08043":55.0,"08045":57.3,"08047":54.7,"08049":58.3,"08051":61.6,"08053":58.6,"08055":55.2,"08057":56.0,"08059":54.8,"08061":54.6,"08063":54.8,"08065":60.0,"08067":59.2,"08069":54.9,"08071":54.5,"08073":56.0,"08075":54.9,"08077":56.6,"08079":58.8,"08081":54.9,"08083":56.3,"08085":55.9,"08087":54.6,"08089":54.6,"08091":59.4,"08093":57.9,"08095":56.3,"08097":61.0,"08099":54.6,"08101":50.7,"08103":55.4,"08105":56.8,"08107":59.9,"08109":56.4,"08111":59.2,"08113":61.5,"08115":55.5,"08117":60.4,"08119":57.2,"08121":55.3,"08123":52.3,"08125":55.6},"votes":{"yes":1463633,"no":1198328,"total":2661961}},{"id":"bm-HI-question-1","st":"HI","slug":"question-1","label":"Question 1","title":"More Senate time on judicial appointments","summary":"Gives the state Senate 60 days instead of 30 to act on judicial appointments made April 1 through December 31 when not in session.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"none","campaign":"Referred by Legislature; no organized campaigns reported.","threshold":0.5319,"thresholdNote":"a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No","ruleNote":"Must win a majority of all ballots cast in the election; blank votes count as no.","est":{"yes":63.4,"p10":50.4,"p90":74.8,"prob":0.8425},"prior":63.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/local-news/2026-10-13/voting-explainer-2026-state-constitutional-amendment-ballot-questions"],"counties":{"15001":62.3,"15003":64.0,"15007":62.1,"15009":62.3},"votes":{"yes":272893,"no":157446,"total":430339}},{"id":"bm-HI-question-2","st":"HI","slug":"question-2","label":"Question 2","title":"County tax increment bonds for infrastructure","summary":"Lets counties issue bonds for sewer, water and drainage in designated districts repaid from property tax revenue growth, outside debt limits.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"Referred by Legislature; supporters say it aids housing; no organized campaigns reported.","threshold":0.5319,"thresholdNote":"a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No","ruleNote":"Must win a majority of all ballots cast in the election; blank votes count as no.","est":{"yes":68.3,"p10":55.3,"p90":78.7,"prob":0.931},"prior":68.3,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/local-news/2026-10-13/voting-explainer-2026-state-constitutional-amendment-ballot-questions"],"counties":{"15001":68.8,"15003":69.0,"15007":67.8,"15009":64.1},"votes":{"yes":293893,"no":136445,"total":430338}},{"id":"bm-ID-hjr-4","st":"ID","slug":"hjr-4","label":"HJR 4","title":"Only Legislature may legalize marijuana and drugs","summary":"Gives the Legislature sole power to legalize marijuana, narcotics and other psychoactive substances, blocking legalization by citizen initiative.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"marijuana","group":"marijuana","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by Republican legislature; Democrats oppose saying it removes voter power.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":60.9,"p10":47.6,"p90":72.4,"prob":0.8565},"prior":60.9,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://legislature.idaho.gov/proposed-amendment-to-the-idaho-constitution/","https://www.kmvt.com/2026/06/05/idaho-legislators-approve-language-ballot-measures-marijuana-english-official-language/"],"counties":{"16001":49.7,"16003":74.2,"16005":57.3,"16007":80.1,"16009":74.8,"16011":70.3,"16013":43.0,"16015":72.7,"16017":69.8,"16019":61.1,"16021":75.4,"16023":77.8,"16025":68.3,"16027":62.6,"16029":76.9,"16031":73.7,"16033":70.8,"16035":77.1,"16037":75.4,"16039":64.8,"16041":77.9,"16043":75.0,"16045":75.7,"16047":72.6,"16049":78.4,"16051":74.2,"16053":68.3,"16055":68.8,"16057":46.3,"16059":74.0,"16061":77.7,"16063":70.1,"16065":53.2,"16067":72.6,"16069":65.4,"16071":79.4,"16073":75.8,"16075":74.0,"16077":67.0,"16079":71.4,"16081":46.5,"16083":67.0,"16085":61.5,"16087":75.5},"votes":{"yes":415693,"no":266495,"total":682188}},{"id":"bm-ID-hjr-6","st":"ID","slug":"hjr-6","label":"HJR 6","title":"English as official state language","summary":"Adds a constitutional provision making English the official language of Idaho.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"R","campaign":"Referred by Republican legislature; opponents note state law already designates English.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":66.5,"p10":53.5,"p90":77.3,"prob":0.948},"prior":66.5,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://legislature.idaho.gov/proposed-amendment-to-the-idaho-constitution/","https://www.kmvt.com/2026/06/05/idaho-legislators-approve-language-ballot-measures-marijuana-english-official-language/"],"counties":{"16001":64.8,"16003":66.8,"16005":64.6,"16007":71.6,"16009":68.0,"16011":68.4,"16013":60.4,"16015":68.2,"16017":66.6,"16019":67.8,"16021":69.1,"16023":69.9,"16025":68.7,"16027":66.6,"16029":69.8,"16031":70.2,"16033":70.2,"16035":67.8,"16037":67.8,"16039":66.7,"16041":72.4,"16043":70.3,"16045":68.9,"16047":67.7,"16049":69.4,"16051":71.8,"16053":66.4,"16055":67.8,"16057":64.4,"16059":67.2,"16061":68.6,"16063":66.2,"16065":72.3,"16067":68.3,"16069":65.6,"16071":72.2,"16073":68.3,"16075":68.1,"16077":65.3,"16079":65.0,"16081":63.8,"16083":66.8,"16085":64.6,"16087":68.1},"votes":{"yes":453681,"no":228505,"total":682186}},{"id":"bm-ID-reproductive-freedom-and-privacy-act","st":"ID","slug":"reproductive-freedom-and-privacy-act","label":"Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act","title":"Restore abortion access before viability","summary":"Creates a statutory right to reproductive decisions including abortion before fetal viability, with emergencies after, and protects contraception and IVF.","type":"initiated statute","category":"abortion","group":"abortion","lean":"D","campaign":"Citizen initiative led by organizer Melanie Folwell (Idahoans United for Women and Family); 75,478 signatures; opposed by Idaho Chooses Life.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":42.6,"p10":29.8,"p90":56.2,"prob":0.2405},"prior":42.6,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[{"pollster":"Boise State University School of Public Service (2026 Idaho Public Policy Survey)","sponsor":"Boise State University","side":"independent","start":null,"end":null,"n":null,"pop":"A","yes":61,"no":28,"und":12,"url":"https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/10/repub/in-deep-red-idaho-support-for-ballot-question-on-abortion-access-is-spread-across-party-lines/","adj":64.4}],"sources":["https://www.kmvt.com/2026/07/14/reproductive-rights-measure-qualifies-idaho-ballot-cannabis-initiative-falls-short/","https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/13/initiative-to-end-idahos-strict-abortion-ban-qualifies-for-novembers-general-election-ballot/","https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/10/repub/in-deep-red-idaho-support-for-ballot-question-on-abortion-access-is-spread-across-party-lines/"],"counties":{"16001":61.2,"16003":27.1,"16005":45.3,"16007":17.1,"16009":24.4,"16011":26.9,"16013":71.2,"16015":29.9,"16017":33.2,"16019":40.7,"16021":23.2,"16023":18.3,"16025":31.4,"16027":37.0,"16029":19.2,"16031":22.2,"16033":23.4,"16035":22.6,"16037":29.2,"16039":33.1,"16041":17.6,"16043":22.0,"16045":22.5,"16047":24.7,"16049":21.3,"16051":21.1,"16053":27.6,"16055":32.0,"16057":58.4,"16059":27.6,"16061":22.5,"16063":25.2,"16065":37.3,"16067":23.5,"16069":37.2,"16071":18.0,"16073":20.4,"16075":23.6,"16077":31.3,"16079":27.9,"16081":63.3,"16083":32.2,"16085":47.9,"16087":24.3},"votes":{"yes":290402,"no":391789,"total":682191}},{"id":"bm-MT-ci-132","st":"MT","slug":"ci-132","label":"CI-132","title":"Keep judicial elections nonpartisan","summary":"Amends the constitution to require that judicial elections remain nonpartisan.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"D","campaign":"Montanans for Nonpartisan Courts, over 3.3 million raised through June 25; Montana Republican Party opposes.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":51.6,"p10":39.1,"p90":65.2,"prob":0.597},"prior":51.6,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://sosmt.gov/elections/ballot_issues/proposed-2026-ballot-issues/","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/19/montana-secretary-of-state-certifies-three-ballot-initiatives-for-november-addressing-judicial-elections-the-initiative-power-and-corporate-contributions-to-campaigns/","https://news.ballotpedia.org/?p=51711"],"counties":{"30001":48.8,"30003":50.7,"30005":51.2,"30007":43.2,"30009":49.5,"30011":36.2,"30013":50.0,"30015":47.1,"30017":45.5,"30019":41.2,"30021":42.4,"30023":51.7,"30025":36.9,"30027":44.0,"30029":50.1,"30031":59.3,"30033":32.5,"30035":52.8,"30037":39.0,"30039":47.5,"30041":49.4,"30043":48.5,"30045":44.3,"30047":50.9,"30049":55.4,"30051":44.6,"30053":42.5,"30055":38.9,"30057":46.8,"30059":45.1,"30061":45.0,"30063":59.9,"30065":39.5,"30067":54.2,"30069":40.1,"30071":42.5,"30073":45.0,"30075":39.1,"30077":43.0,"30079":42.5,"30081":46.8,"30083":40.6,"30085":50.5,"30087":46.0,"30089":42.7,"30091":46.1,"30093":53.6,"30095":44.0,"30097":43.8,"30099":45.7,"30101":43.3,"30103":43.2,"30105":44.6,"30107":42.4,"30109":39.8,"30111":50.7},"votes":{"yes":274326,"no":257075,"total":531401}},{"id":"bm-MT-ci-133","st":"MT","slug":"ci-133","label":"CI-133","title":"Protect initiative and referendum rights","summary":"Adds initiative and referendum rights to the Declaration of Rights, applies strict scrutiny to limits, and sets rules for ballot language and signature gathering.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"elections_voting","group":"elections_voting","lean":"D","campaign":"Montanans Decide, over 2 million raised; opposed by Rep. Braxton Mitchell side.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":49.5,"p10":37.1,"p90":63.2,"prob":0.487},"prior":49.5,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://sosmt.gov/elections/ballot_issues/proposed-2026-ballot-issues/","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/19/montana-secretary-of-state-certifies-three-ballot-initiatives-for-november-addressing-judicial-elections-the-initiative-power-and-corporate-contributions-to-campaigns/"],"counties":{"30001":42.9,"30003":52.1,"30005":51.7,"30007":34.0,"30009":45.2,"30011":23.0,"30013":47.9,"30015":43.2,"30017":38.5,"30019":31.1,"30021":33.9,"30023":53.1,"30025":25.3,"30027":36.8,"30029":45.7,"30031":61.1,"30033":17.3,"30035":57.6,"30037":27.7,"30039":41.3,"30041":48.1,"30043":43.5,"30045":35.5,"30047":48.9,"30049":55.3,"30051":36.5,"30053":34.9,"30055":26.9,"30057":40.4,"30059":37.3,"30061":38.1,"30063":64.3,"30065":28.1,"30067":53.8,"30069":27.2,"30071":32.8,"30073":39.6,"30075":27.1,"30077":35.3,"30079":33.2,"30081":41.4,"30083":30.1,"30085":50.7,"30087":41.4,"30089":34.8,"30091":40.3,"30093":56.1,"30095":34.4,"30097":36.2,"30099":39.6,"30101":35.2,"30103":30.8,"30105":37.3,"30107":33.8,"30109":28.2,"30111":47.5},"votes":{"yes":263025,"no":268375,"total":531400}},{"id":"bm-MT-i-194","st":"MT","slug":"i-194","label":"I-194","title":"Bar corporate political spending via charter limits","summary":"Limits powers of artificial persons so corporations and other entities cannot spend on candidates, ballot measures or parties.","type":"initiated statute","category":"government_ethics","group":"government_ethics","lean":"D","campaign":"Transparent Election Initiative PAC, 305,000 raised, endorsed by former Gov. Steve Bullock; opposed by Montanans for Free Speech.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":61.1,"p10":47.7,"p90":72.4,"prob":0.8595},"prior":61.1,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://sosmt.gov/elections/ballot_issues/proposed-2026-ballot-issues/","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/19/montana-secretary-of-state-certifies-three-ballot-initiatives-for-november-addressing-judicial-elections-the-initiative-power-and-corporate-contributions-to-campaigns/"],"counties":{"30001":57.3,"30003":64.3,"30005":63.7,"30007":54.3,"30009":59.8,"30011":48.7,"30013":61.2,"30015":60.2,"30017":56.7,"30019":53.8,"30021":54.8,"30023":65.2,"30025":50.1,"30027":56.6,"30029":59.1,"30031":63.1,"30033":43.6,"30035":67.3,"30037":51.8,"30039":58.1,"30041":61.8,"30043":58.9,"30045":54.8,"30047":61.8,"30049":63.0,"30051":55.8,"30053":57.0,"30055":51.1,"30057":57.9,"30059":56.5,"30061":57.5,"30063":66.4,"30065":51.9,"30067":63.1,"30069":50.0,"30071":54.1,"30073":58.5,"30075":50.9,"30077":55.9,"30079":55.5,"30081":58.6,"30083":52.1,"30085":62.8,"30087":59.0,"30089":56.6,"30091":58.0,"30093":65.4,"30095":53.9,"30097":56.3,"30099":57.7,"30101":55.0,"30103":50.5,"30105":56.6,"30107":55.6,"30109":51.2,"30111":61.3},"votes":{"yes":324594,"no":206809,"total":531403}},{"id":"bm-NV-question-6","st":"NV","slug":"question-6","label":"Question 6","title":"Constitutional right to abortion until viability","summary":"Second vote to add a right to abortion until fetal viability, or after to protect patient life or health, to the Nevada Constitution.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"abortion","group":"abortion","lean":"D","campaign":"Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom support; Nevadans Right to Life oppose. No money figures found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority; this is the required second approval of an initiated constitutional amendment first passed in 2024. If it fails, the amendment does not take effect. Passed with 64 percent in 2024.","est":{"yes":64.0,"p10":57.8,"p90":70.1,"prob":0.9965},"prior":59.6,"pollAvg":65.4,"pollWeight":1.31,"polls":[{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-26","end":"2026-10-28","n":487,"pop":"LV","yes":57,"no":34,"und":6,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nevada-poll-of-record-lombardo-ford-deadlocked-at-47","adj":60.8},{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-09-22","end":"2026-09-26","n":708,"pop":"LV","yes":69,"no":22,"und":null,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/lombardo-tries-to-escape-trump-s-orbit-up-2-over-ford","adj":72.0}],"sources":["https://news3lv.com/news/local/nevadans-will-only-vote-on-two-statewide-ballot-questions-this-year-the-fewest-since-2012-voter-id-identification-abortion-rights","https://www.ktnv.com/news/abortion-voter-id-to-be-decided-by-nevada-voters-in-november-ballot-questions"],"counties":{"32001":35.7,"32003":67.3,"32005":45.7,"32007":33.5,"32009":26.9,"32011":19.7,"32013":34.3,"32015":29.9,"32017":24.0,"32019":37.4,"32021":39.3,"32023":36.2,"32027":30.4,"32029":43.6,"32031":68.4,"32033":30.9,"32510":57.7},"votes":{"yes":741798,"no":417061,"total":1158859}},{"id":"bm-NV-question-7","st":"NV","slug":"question-7","label":"Question 7","title":"Photo voter ID requirement","summary":"Second vote to require photo ID to vote in person and an ID number on mail ballots, effective for 2028 elections.","type":"initiated constitutional amendment","category":"voter_id","group":"voter_id","lean":"R","campaign":"Backed by Dave Gibbs with support from Gov. Joe Lombardo; critics say unnecessary. No money figures found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority; this is the required second approval of an initiated constitutional amendment first passed in 2024. If it fails, the amendment does not take effect. Passed with 73 percent in 2024.","est":{"yes":64.0,"p10":57.7,"p90":69.8,"prob":0.998},"prior":64.6,"pollAvg":63.9,"pollWeight":1.31,"polls":[{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-10-26","end":"2026-10-28","n":487,"pop":"LV","yes":58,"no":37,"und":4,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nevada-poll-of-record-lombardo-ford-deadlocked-at-47","adj":59.9},{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","sponsor":null,"side":"neutral","start":"2026-09-22","end":"2026-09-26","n":708,"pop":"LV","yes":67,"no":25,"und":null,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/lombardo-tries-to-escape-trump-s-orbit-up-2-over-ford","adj":69.7}],"sources":["https://news3lv.com/news/local/nevadans-will-only-vote-on-two-statewide-ballot-questions-this-year-the-fewest-since-2012-voter-id-identification-abortion-rights","https://www.ktnv.com/news/abortion-voter-id-to-be-decided-by-nevada-voters-in-november-ballot-questions"],"counties":{"32001":80.4,"32003":61.5,"32005":74.9,"32007":81.7,"32009":83.8,"32011":88.9,"32013":81.1,"32015":83.7,"32017":86.7,"32019":78.8,"32021":76.2,"32023":78.3,"32027":81.9,"32029":76.3,"32031":64.1,"32033":81.9,"32510":68.8},"votes":{"yes":742079,"no":416783,"total":1158862}},{"id":"bm-NM-constitutional-amendment-1","st":"NM","slug":"constitutional-amendment-1","label":"Constitutional Amendment 1","title":"End pocket veto, require veto explanations","summary":"Bills the governor neither signs nor vetoes become law, and the governor must explain any full or partial veto.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"government_ethics","group":"government_ethics","lean":"none","campaign":"Co-sponsored by Rep. Matthew McQueen (D); critics call it superfluous.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":69.0,"p10":57.1,"p90":79.3,"prob":0.972},"prior":69.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.sos.nm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2026-CA-and-GOB-Questions.pdf","https://sourcenm.com/2026/09/17/new-mexico-election-2026-constitutional-amendments-1-3/"],"counties":{"35001":70.0,"35003":68.3,"35005":67.1,"35006":67.0,"35007":67.9,"35009":68.2,"35011":65.3,"35013":69.2,"35015":67.3,"35017":68.3,"35019":66.7,"35021":68.5,"35023":66.9,"35025":67.1,"35027":68.6,"35028":73.3,"35029":66.2,"35031":66.4,"35033":68.6,"35035":67.8,"35037":67.0,"35039":66.9,"35041":67.7,"35043":69.1,"35045":67.0,"35047":68.0,"35049":70.9,"35051":65.9,"35053":66.9,"35055":70.0,"35057":66.6,"35059":67.1,"35061":67.3},"votes":{"yes":530891,"no":238546,"total":769437}},{"id":"bm-NM-constitutional-amendment-2","st":"NM","slug":"constitutional-amendment-2","label":"Constitutional Amendment 2","title":"Allow school elections with partisan elections","summary":"Removes the requirement that school elections be held separately from partisan elections, allowing them on November even year ballots.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"elections_voting","lean":"none","campaign":"Co-sponsored by Sen. Linda Trujillo (D); critics warn of voter fatigue.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority assumed. It amends Art. VII Sec. 1 (elective franchise), which Art. XIX Sec. 1 has historically shielded with a 3/4 statewide and 2/3 per county requirement; whether that applies was not confirmed.","est":{"yes":59.9,"p10":46.9,"p90":71.5,"prob":0.8355},"prior":59.9,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.sos.nm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2026-CA-and-GOB-Questions.pdf","https://sourcenm.com/2026/09/17/new-mexico-election-2026-constitutional-amendments-1-3/"],"counties":{"35001":62.6,"35003":57.6,"35005":57.0,"35006":56.7,"35007":57.6,"35009":58.5,"35011":55.1,"35013":59.7,"35015":57.3,"35017":58.0,"35019":56.4,"35021":58.2,"35023":56.5,"35025":57.2,"35027":58.1,"35028":64.1,"35029":55.9,"35031":56.2,"35033":58.3,"35035":57.8,"35037":56.6,"35039":56.6,"35041":58.0,"35043":59.1,"35045":56.8,"35047":57.7,"35049":61.0,"35051":55.1,"35053":56.8,"35055":59.8,"35057":56.2,"35059":56.6,"35061":57.1},"votes":{"yes":460650,"no":308782,"total":769432}},{"id":"bm-NM-constitutional-amendment-3","st":"NM","slug":"constitutional-amendment-3","label":"Constitutional Amendment 3","title":"Nominating committee for university regents","summary":"Creates nominating committees to recommend university regents to the governor and bars recent party switchers from serving.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"education","group":"education","lean":"none","campaign":"Co-sponsored by Sen. Jeff Steinborn (D).","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":65.1,"p10":52.3,"p90":76.1,"prob":0.9385},"prior":65.1,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.sos.nm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2026-CA-and-GOB-Questions.pdf","https://sourcenm.com/2026/09/17/new-mexico-election-2026-constitutional-amendments-1-3/"],"counties":{"35001":68.7,"35003":57.8,"35005":57.8,"35006":62.4,"35007":61.6,"35009":59.1,"35011":55.8,"35013":65.2,"35015":56.5,"35017":63.8,"35019":62.2,"35021":59.3,"35023":59.9,"35025":55.5,"35027":59.3,"35028":69.7,"35029":60.1,"35031":64.4,"35033":65.0,"35035":60.4,"35037":58.0,"35039":64.1,"35041":58.8,"35043":64.4,"35045":59.1,"35047":65.7,"35049":69.9,"35051":59.6,"35053":62.1,"35055":69.1,"35057":58.1,"35059":56.5,"35061":61.0},"votes":{"yes":500941,"no":268495,"total":769436}},{"id":"bm-NM-constitutional-amendment-4","st":"NM","slug":"constitutional-amendment-4","label":"Constitutional Amendment 4","title":"Tie legislator pay to median income","summary":"Gives legislators a salary tied to state median household income, with delayed implementation.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"government_ethics","group":"government_ethics","lean":"none","campaign":"Referred by Legislature; no campaign details found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":69.0,"p10":56.4,"p90":79.2,"prob":0.9685},"prior":69.0,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.sos.nm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2026-CA-and-GOB-Questions.pdf","https://sourcenm.com/2026/09/17/new-mexico-election-2026-constitutional-amendments-1-3/"],"counties":{"35001":70.0,"35003":68.3,"35005":67.1,"35006":67.0,"35007":67.9,"35009":68.2,"35011":65.3,"35013":69.2,"35015":67.3,"35017":68.3,"35019":66.7,"35021":68.5,"35023":66.9,"35025":67.1,"35027":68.6,"35028":73.3,"35029":66.2,"35031":66.4,"35033":68.6,"35035":67.8,"35037":67.0,"35039":66.9,"35041":67.7,"35043":69.1,"35045":67.0,"35047":68.0,"35049":70.9,"35051":65.9,"35053":66.9,"35055":70.0,"35057":66.6,"35059":67.1,"35061":67.3},"votes":{"yes":530891,"no":238546,"total":769437}},{"id":"bm-NM-bond-question-1","st":"NM","slug":"bond-question-1","label":"Bond Question 1","title":"Senior citizen facilities bond","summary":"Authorizes 21,582,213 dollars in general obligation bonds for senior citizen facility improvements and equipment.","type":"bond","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"2026 Capital Projects GO Bond Act; repaid by property tax levy.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":65.6,"p10":53.2,"p90":76.5,"prob":0.945},"prior":65.6,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.sos.nm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2026-CA-and-GOB-Questions.pdf"],"counties":{"35001":70.8,"35003":59.8,"35005":56.3,"35006":62.1,"35007":62.4,"35009":57.1,"35011":54.8,"35013":64.7,"35015":54.5,"35017":65.0,"35019":61.2,"35021":59.5,"35023":59.7,"35025":52.8,"35027":60.3,"35028":70.1,"35029":59.8,"35031":63.3,"35033":66.7,"35035":59.4,"35037":58.1,"35039":64.5,"35041":56.8,"35043":64.3,"35045":57.8,"35047":66.6,"35049":71.5,"35051":61.3,"35053":61.6,"35055":71.1,"35057":57.4,"35059":55.9,"35061":60.3},"votes":{"yes":504983,"no":264450,"total":769433}},{"id":"bm-NM-bond-question-2","st":"NM","slug":"bond-question-2","label":"Bond Question 2","title":"Library acquisitions bond","summary":"Authorizes 19,324,188 dollars in general obligation bonds for academic, public school, public and tribal library resources.","type":"bond","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"2026 Capital Projects GO Bond Act; repaid by property tax levy.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":65.6,"p10":52.5,"p90":76.0,"prob":0.938},"prior":65.6,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.sos.nm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2026-CA-and-GOB-Questions.pdf"],"counties":{"35001":70.7,"35003":56.2,"35005":58.7,"35006":63.6,"35007":61.8,"35009":60.6,"35011":55.3,"35013":62.4,"35015":57.5,"35017":64.1,"35019":63.6,"35021":59.7,"35023":60.4,"35025":56.8,"35027":59.1,"35028":72.6,"35029":60.3,"35031":66.2,"35033":65.4,"35035":61.5,"35037":57.8,"35039":65.0,"35041":59.9,"35043":66.0,"35045":60.2,"35047":66.6,"35049":67.3,"35051":58.2,"35053":63.0,"35055":70.2,"35057":58.4,"35059":56.6,"35061":57.3},"votes":{"yes":504984,"no":264448,"total":769432}},{"id":"bm-NM-bond-question-3","st":"NM","slug":"bond-question-3","label":"Bond Question 3","title":"Higher education and tribal schools bond","summary":"Authorizes 352,225,379 dollars in general obligation bonds for higher education institutions, special schools and tribal schools.","type":"bond","category":"bonds_spending","group":"bonds_spending","lean":"none","campaign":"2026 Capital Projects GO Bond Act; repaid by property tax levy.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":65.6,"p10":52.1,"p90":76.5,"prob":0.9305},"prior":65.6,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.sos.nm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2026-CA-and-GOB-Questions.pdf"],"counties":{"35001":70.7,"35003":56.2,"35005":58.7,"35006":63.6,"35007":61.8,"35009":60.6,"35011":55.3,"35013":62.4,"35015":57.5,"35017":64.1,"35019":63.6,"35021":59.7,"35023":60.4,"35025":56.8,"35027":59.1,"35028":72.6,"35029":60.3,"35031":66.2,"35033":65.4,"35035":61.5,"35037":57.8,"35039":65.0,"35041":59.9,"35043":66.0,"35045":60.2,"35047":66.6,"35049":67.3,"35051":58.2,"35053":63.0,"35055":70.2,"35057":58.4,"35059":56.6,"35061":57.3},"votes":{"yes":504984,"no":264448,"total":769432}},{"id":"bm-UT-amendment-a","st":"UT","slug":"amendment-a","label":"Amendment A","title":"Flexible publication of proposed amendments","summary":"Replaces the two month newspaper publication rule for proposed amendments, letting lawmakers set the format if notice is given 60 days before the election.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"other","group":"other","lean":"none","campaign":"Passed Legislature unanimously; no opposition campaign.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":63.4,"p10":50.8,"p90":75.0,"prob":0.91},"prior":63.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/10/06/two-amendments-one-fights-utah-ballot-november/"],"counties":{"49001":61.4,"49003":61.8,"49005":64.0,"49007":60.7,"49009":60.5,"49011":63.6,"49013":60.7,"49015":60.6,"49017":62.1,"49019":63.4,"49021":62.5,"49023":60.9,"49025":62.1,"49027":61.5,"49029":63.5,"49031":60.8,"49033":61.5,"49035":63.6,"49037":61.0,"49039":61.3,"49041":61.3,"49043":66.4,"49045":61.3,"49047":60.4,"49049":64.3,"49051":65.3,"49053":63.0,"49055":62.0,"49057":62.1},"votes":{"yes":601210,"no":346867,"total":948077}},{"id":"bm-UT-amendment-b","st":"UT","slug":"amendment-b","label":"Amendment B","title":"60 percent vote for tax raising initiatives","summary":"Requires 60 percent voter approval for citizen initiatives that create, raise or expand taxes.","type":"legislative referral constitutional","category":"elections_voting","group":"supermajority","lean":"R","campaign":"Sponsored by Sen. Lincoln Fillmore and Rep. Jason Kyle, backed by Utah Taxpayers Association and Taxpayer Shield PAC; opposed by Utahns Protecting Our Constitution (Better Boundaries), described as a million dollar campaign.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Amendment B itself needs a simple majority.","est":{"yes":44.9,"p10":38.6,"p90":51.8,"prob":0.1735},"prior":49.2,"pollAvg":43.4,"pollWeight":1.1,"polls":[{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","sponsor":null,"side":"independent","start":"2026-10-26","end":"2026-10-27","n":527,"pop":"LV","yes":34,"no":56,"und":10,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/utah-poll-of-record-56-oppose-amendment-b","adj":37.3},{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","sponsor":null,"side":"independent","start":"2026-09-08","end":"2026-09-12","n":602,"pop":"RV","yes":50,"no":21,"und":23,"url":"https://www.ksl.com/article/51631261/proposed-amendment-would-raise-the-bar-for-some-utah-ballot-initiatives","adj":61.3}],"sources":["https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/10/06/two-amendments-one-fights-utah-ballot-november/","https://www.ksl.com/article/51631261/proposed-amendment-would-raise-the-bar-for-some-utah-ballot-initiatives","https://www.axios.com/local/salt-lake-city/2026/10/07/amendment-b-utah-legislature-taxes-raise-thresehold-ballot-initatives"],"counties":{"49001":64.3,"49003":59.4,"49005":45.7,"49007":55.4,"49009":60.4,"49011":43.8,"49013":65.6,"49015":64.9,"49017":58.6,"49019":41.8,"49021":57.6,"49023":65.4,"49025":55.2,"49027":65.1,"49029":58.0,"49031":66.9,"49033":62.1,"49035":36.8,"49037":48.8,"49039":62.1,"49041":65.1,"49043":38.7,"49045":54.2,"49047":64.8,"49049":46.8,"49051":48.1,"49053":55.8,"49055":56.4,"49057":44.6},"votes":{"yes":425664,"no":522413,"total":948077}},{"id":"bm-WA-initiative-measure-no-il26-638","st":"WA","slug":"initiative-measure-no-il26-638","label":"Initiative Measure No. IL26-638","title":"Girls' sports limited to biological females","summary":"Bars students defined as biologically male from girls' interschool sports and requires a provider statement verifying sex to participate.","type":"initiated statute","category":"lgbtq_rights","group":"lgbtq_rights","lean":"R","campaign":"Let's Go Washington (Brian Heywood) initiative to the Legislature, 400,000 plus signatures; Legislature did not act; WEA and Northwest Progressive Institute oppose.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":53.4,"p10":43.7,"p90":62.7,"prob":0.6835},"prior":48.7,"pollAvg":58.1,"pollWeight":0.27,"polls":[{"pollster":"Undisclosed","sponsor":"Let's Go Washington","side":"yes","start":"2026-08-01","end":"2026-08-31","n":7500,"pop":"LV","yes":56,"no":24,"und":22,"url":"https://komonews.com/news/local/new-polling-shows-support-for-washington-transgender-girls-sports-initiative-high-school-interscholastic-wiaa-trans-discrimination-inclusivity-local-community-politics-midterm-election","adj":58.1}],"sources":["https://www.theurbanist.org/2026-general-election-endorsements/","https://www.kxly.com/news/politics/4thepeople-elections-coverage/washington-voters-to-decide-on-transgender-athlete-ban-and-parents-rights-initiatives/article_5eb03564-1b25-4057-aa51-3f4f94cee980.html","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Washington_Initiative_IL26-638","https://www.kuow.org/elections/2026-10-05/polling-shows-ban-on-trans-girls-in-girls-sports-could-pass-in-november","https://www.foxnews.com/outkick-sports/poll-shows-washington-state-voters-ready-end-boys-competing-girls-sports"],"counties":{"53001":77.6,"53003":71.0,"53005":70.8,"53007":65.6,"53009":59.1,"53011":57.7,"53013":77.2,"53015":69.1,"53017":71.8,"53019":73.6,"53021":70.7,"53023":78.6,"53025":75.5,"53027":64.3,"53029":55.9,"53031":43.2,"53033":38.3,"53035":55.1,"53037":67.3,"53039":65.4,"53041":73.6,"53043":79.3,"53045":63.0,"53047":67.4,"53049":62.2,"53051":75.7,"53053":56.5,"53055":39.9,"53057":59.9,"53059":66.0,"53061":56.0,"53063":62.1,"53065":77.3,"53067":55.4,"53069":68.5,"53071":65.2,"53073":53.5,"53075":58.7,"53077":68.8},"votes":{"yes":1402430,"no":1222615,"total":2625045}},{"id":"bm-WA-initiative-measure-no-il26-001","st":"WA","slug":"initiative-measure-no-il26-001","label":"Initiative Measure No. IL26-001","title":"Parents' Bill of Rights reinstatement","summary":"Fully reinstates the Parents' Bill of Rights giving parents access to student academic, medical and counseling records and notifications, repealing 2025 changes.","type":"initiated statute","category":"education","group":"education","lean":"R","campaign":"Let's Go Washington initiative to the Legislature; Legislature did not act; WEA and LGBTQ advocates oppose.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":45.2,"p10":32.3,"p90":57.9,"prob":0.309},"prior":45.2,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://www.theurbanist.org/2026-general-election-endorsements/","https://www.kxly.com/news/politics/4thepeople-elections-coverage/washington-voters-to-decide-on-transgender-athlete-ban-and-parents-rights-initiatives/article_5eb03564-1b25-4057-aa51-3f4f94cee980.html"],"counties":{"53001":51.1,"53003":47.9,"53005":47.9,"53007":45.1,"53009":41.6,"53011":51.9,"53013":52.2,"53015":46.0,"53017":47.9,"53019":48.6,"53021":46.9,"53023":54.0,"53025":50.1,"53027":43.1,"53029":40.4,"53031":34.8,"53033":43.8,"53035":39.6,"53037":46.8,"53039":45.1,"53041":49.3,"53043":53.8,"53045":42.8,"53047":45.6,"53049":42.7,"53051":50.7,"53053":50.9,"53055":34.1,"53057":41.3,"53059":45.3,"53061":40.0,"53063":54.4,"53065":52.0,"53067":39.7,"53069":46.0,"53071":44.7,"53073":38.9,"53075":43.2,"53077":45.0},"votes":{"yes":1187378,"no":1437667,"total":2625045}},{"id":"bm-WA-initiative-measure-no-ip26-645","st":"WA","slug":"initiative-measure-no-ip26-645","label":"Initiative Measure No. IP26-645","title":"Repeal millionaires income tax, ban income taxes","summary":"Repeals the 2026 9.9 percent tax on individual income over 1 million and bars state and local income taxes.","type":"initiated statute","category":"taxes_income","group":"taxes_income","lean":"R","campaign":"Let's Go Washington initiative to the people; No campaign backed by Rick Steves and Ken Jennings; court upheld ballot language including fiscal impact statement (about 11.4 billion revenue loss FY2027 to 2031).","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":43.4,"p10":36.0,"p90":51.2,"prob":0.134},"prior":47.6,"pollAvg":41.4,"pollWeight":0.69,"polls":[{"pollster":"DHM Research","sponsor":null,"side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-21","n":400,"pop":null,"yes":35,"no":57,"und":8,"url":"https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/?p=190794","adj":37.7},{"pollster":"DHM Research","sponsor":null,"side":"independent","start":"2026-09-14","end":"2026-09-21","n":400,"pop":null,"yes":40,"no":44,"und":16,"url":"https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/?p=190794","adj":45.3}],"sources":["https://www.wastatepta.org/?p=26671","https://www.fox13seattle.com/news/ballot-wording-supports-millionaires-tax","https://komonews.com/news/politics/millioinares-tax-washington-state-survey-find-ballot-language-could-sway-november-vote-on-millionaires-tax-olympia-governer-ballot-state-attorney-generals-office","https://www.theurbanist.org/2026-general-election-endorsements/"],"counties":{"53001":60.4,"53003":55.3,"53005":53.7,"53007":50.9,"53009":46.9,"53011":47.0,"53013":59.9,"53015":54.4,"53017":55.8,"53019":57.8,"53021":54.8,"53023":60.7,"53025":58.8,"53027":51.1,"53029":44.5,"53031":36.7,"53033":34.0,"53035":43.3,"53037":51.7,"53039":50.9,"53041":57.4,"53043":61.8,"53045":50.0,"53047":52.7,"53049":49.3,"53051":59.1,"53053":46.3,"53055":34.2,"53057":46.8,"53059":51.4,"53061":43.8,"53063":49.7,"53065":60.3,"53067":43.4,"53069":53.7,"53071":50.7,"53073":42.3,"53075":45.3,"53077":53.0},"votes":{"yes":1139775,"no":1485266,"total":2625041}},{"id":"bm-WY-proposed-initiative-proposition-number-one","st":"WY","slug":"proposed-initiative-proposition-number-one","label":"Proposed Initiative Proposition Number One","title":"50 percent homestead property tax exemption","summary":"Exempts 50 percent of the assessed value of a qualifying owner occupied primary residence from property tax.","type":"initiated statute","category":"taxes_property","group":"taxes_property","lean":"R","campaign":"Sponsored by BCR Initiatives (Brent Bien, Cheryl Aguiar, Rich Weber); first Wyoming initiative on the ballot since 1996; state revenue loss about 92.6 million in FY2028; a group organized against it.","threshold":0.5319,"thresholdNote":"a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No","ruleNote":"Must receive a majority of all ballots cast in the general election, not just votes on the question; blank votes effectively count as no.","est":{"yes":68.4,"p10":56.0,"p90":78.7,"prob":0.9385},"prior":68.4,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://sos.wyo.gov/Elections/Docs/2026/2026_Statewide_Ballot_Propositions.pdf","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2025/01/08/wyoming-voters-to-decide-on-ballot-initiative-to-exempt-50-of-home-property-value-from-taxes-the-first-initiative-to-appear-on-the-states-ballot-in-30-years/","https://sos.wyo.gov/Media/2025/SoS_Release_2025-11-18.pdf"],"counties":{"56001":56.8,"56003":76.0,"56005":72.8,"56007":71.4,"56009":74.1,"56011":77.2,"56013":68.6,"56015":74.1,"56017":74.7,"56019":75.5,"56021":63.5,"56023":73.2,"56025":66.6,"56027":81.4,"56029":73.8,"56031":76.1,"56033":71.2,"56035":73.6,"56037":68.4,"56039":52.3,"56041":72.0,"56043":74.9,"56045":76.7},"votes":{"yes":139470,"no":64537,"total":204007}},{"id":"bm-AK-ballot-measure-2","st":"AK","slug":"ballot-measure-2","label":"Ballot Measure 2","title":"Repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting","summary":"Repeals the top four open primary and ranked choice general elections, restoring party primaries, and repeals 2020 campaign finance disclosure rules.","type":"initiated statute","category":"ranked_choice","group":"ranked_choice","lean":"R","campaign":"Repeal Now (yes) raised 1.1 million, 846,000 from Aurora Action Network; No on 2 / Protect Alaska's Elections raised 5.75 million, 4 million from Unite America. 2024 repeal failed by 737 votes.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":47.5,"p10":41.3,"p90":53.8,"prob":0.3035},"prior":45.4,"pollAvg":48.1,"pollWeight":1.6,"polls":[{"pollster":"Data for Progress","sponsor":"Data for Progress","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-08","end":"2026-10-16","n":694,"pop":"LV","yes":48,"no":48,"und":4,"url":"https://www.dataforprogress.org/","adj":49.3},{"pollster":"Alaska Survey Research","sponsor":"Alaska Survey Research","side":"independent","start":"2026-10-01","end":"2026-10-03","n":1512,"pop":"LV","yes":47,"no":53,"und":0,"url":"https://alaskasurveyresearch.com/","adj":47.0}],"sources":["https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-07-29/alaskans-to-vote-on-ballot-measure-that-would-overhaul-state-election-system","https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/07/31/ranked-choice-voting-hold-on-alaskans-have-another-ballot-measure-to-decide-first/","https://akcommonground.org/2026-ballot-measures-are-you-confused/"],"counties":{"02013":55.6,"02016":40.8,"02020":47.2,"02050":33.4,"02060":50.3,"02063":51.6,"02066":59.2,"02068":53.8,"02070":41.9,"02090":53.8,"02100":41.8,"02105":34.4,"02110":38.9,"02122":59.4,"02130":50.0,"02150":51.6,"02158":28.8,"02164":43.7,"02170":64.3,"02180":34.2,"02185":46.3,"02188":39.7,"02195":50.9,"02198":40.3,"02220":41.8,"02230":27.8,"02240":72.7,"02275":53.2,"02282":31.5,"02290":31.1},"votes":{"yes":138749,"no":133866,"total":272615}},{"id":"bm-AK-ballot-measure-3","st":"AK","slug":"ballot-measure-3","label":"Ballot Measure 3","title":"Only U.S. citizens may vote","summary":"Amends state law to provide that only U.S. citizens may vote in any Alaska election.","type":"initiated statute","category":"elections_voting","group":"citizen_voting","lean":"R","campaign":"Citizen initiative (indirect statute); no campaign finance found.","threshold":0.5,"thresholdNote":"a simple majority","ruleNote":"Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.","est":{"yes":77.7,"p10":66.7,"p90":85.5,"prob":0.9985},"prior":77.7,"pollAvg":null,"pollWeight":0.0,"polls":[],"sources":["https://theballotbrief.com/measures/alaska/ballot-measure-3","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/08/six-citizenship-voting-measures-on-the-ballot-in-2026-continue-historical-trend/","https://akcommonground.org/2026-ballot-measures-are-you-confused/"],"counties":{"02013":83.3,"02016":74.5,"02020":74.7,"02050":72.0,"02060":82.0,"02063":79.9,"02066":86.5,"02068":81.9,"02070":76.7,"02090":80.4,"02100":75.3,"02105":71.3,"02110":68.7,"02122":85.0,"02130":80.3,"02150":80.2,"02158":71.1,"02164":78.5,"02170":87.7,"02180":72.6,"02185":79.3,"02188":77.2,"02195":81.1,"02198":78.5,"02220":73.0,"02230":63.5,"02240":91.0,"02275":84.3,"02282":72.0,"02290":70.7},"votes":{"yes":214074,"no":58537,"total":272611}}]}