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Edwards is a Madison County commissioner. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alabama_State_Auditor_election","https://politics1.com/AL.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"auditor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":35.81,"prob":1.0,"p10":26.98,"p90":44.63},"votes":{"dem":542225,"rep":1156664,"other":17160,"total":1716050},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":11.9,"blend":33.54,"withCandidates":36.17,"final":36.17,"history":55.95,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-AL","gov-AL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Alabama senate, Alabama governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":17.3},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":67.9},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"lg-AL","st":"AL","state":"Alabama","office":"lieutenant-governor","officeLabel":"Lieutenant governor","dem":"Phillip Ensler","gop":"John Wahl","others":[],"incumbent":"Will Ainsworth","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Ainsworth is term-limited. 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No general election polls found; all published polls were GOP primary or runoff polls.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alabama_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_lieutenant_gubernatorial_elections"],"seat":null,"slug":"lieutenant-governor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":27.09,"prob":1.0,"p10":18.68,"p90":35.51},"votes":{"dem":616992,"rep":1081896,"other":17160,"total":1716050},"polls":[{"pollster":"Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily News","end":"2026-10-17","n":500,"kind":"LV","D":34.1,"R":50.1,"U":15.9,"margin":16.0,"adjMargin":12.3,"lean":{"dir":"R","pts":3.7},"age":17,"url":"https://www.wsfa.com/"}],"pollWeight":0.156,"pollAvg":14.64,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.24,"F":0.12,"G":0.08,"H":0.4,"P":0.16},"topOfTicket":11.9,"blend":29.79,"withCandidates":29.64,"final":27.37,"history":54.9,"candidateTerm":0.004,"topRaces":["sen-AL","gov-AL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Alabama senate, Alabama governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":17.7},"primary":{"dem_primary_votes":341848,"rep_primary_votes":475075,"dem_share":41.8,"dem_nominee_share":57.6,"rep_nominee_share":57.0},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"psc-AL-place-1","st":"AL","state":"Alabama","office":"public-service-commission","officeLabel":"Public Service Commission, Place 1","dem":"James O. 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No general election polls found; a Dec 2025 Alabama Poll of the GOP primary had Gentry 15, Oden 9.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alabama_Public_Service_Commission_election","https://aldailynews.com/zeigler-ousts-incumbent-beeker-as-ivey-announces-psc-appointments/","https://alabamareflector.com/2026/06/17/former-state-auditor-jim-zeigler-wins-gop-nomination-for-public-service-commission/","https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/election-2026/2026RepublicanCertification.pdf"],"seat":"Place 1","slug":"public-service-commission-place-1","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":32.66,"prob":1.0,"p10":23.83,"p90":41.49},"votes":{"dem":569223,"rep":1129665,"other":17160,"total":1716050},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":11.9,"blend":30.31,"withCandidates":32.99,"final":32.99,"history":49.63,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-AL","gov-AL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Alabama senate, Alabama governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":20.0},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"psc-AL-place-2","st":"AL","state":"Alabama","office":"public-service-commission","officeLabel":"Public Service Commission, Place 2","dem":"Sheila McNeil","gop":"Jim Zeigler","others":[],"incumbent":"Chris Beeker III","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Former state auditor Jim Zeigler beat appointed incumbent Chip Beeker III 51.3 to 48.7 in the June 16 GOP runoff. Madison County Democratic chair Sheila McNeil is the Democratic nominee; the Reflector spells her first name Sherry but Wikipedia and Alabama Reporter use Sheila.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alabama_Public_Service_Commission_election","https://aldailynews.com/zeigler-ousts-incumbent-beeker-as-ivey-announces-psc-appointments/","https://alabamareflector.com/2026/06/17/former-state-auditor-jim-zeigler-wins-gop-nomination-for-public-service-commission/","https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/election-2026/2026RepublicanCertification.pdf","https://www.alreporter.com/2026/08/07/alabama-afl-cio-endorses-sheila-mcneil-for-public-service-commission/"],"seat":"Place 2","slug":"public-service-commission-place-2","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":32.66,"prob":1.0,"p10":23.83,"p90":41.49},"votes":{"dem":569223,"rep":1129665,"other":17160,"total":1716050},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":11.9,"blend":30.31,"withCandidates":32.99,"final":32.99,"history":49.63,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-AL","gov-AL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Alabama senate, Alabama governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":20.0},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"sos-AL","st":"AL","state":"Alabama","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Wayne Rogers","gop":"Caroleene Dobson","others":[],"incumbent":"Wes Allen","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Allen ran for lieutenant governor and lost the GOP runoff. Dobson won the May 19 GOP primary outright with 65.5%. Rogers had no Democratic primary file. No general election polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alabama_Secretary_of_State_election","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_secretary_of_state_elections"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":22.01,"prob":0.9996,"p10":13.6,"p90":30.42},"votes":{"dem":643740,"rep":1021441,"other":50868,"total":1716050},"polls":[{"pollster":"Cygnal (R) for Gray Media and Alabama Daily News","end":"2026-10-17","n":500,"kind":"LV","D":34.4,"R":49.5,"U":16.1,"margin":15.1,"adjMargin":11.4,"lean":{"dir":"R","pts":3.7},"age":17,"url":"https://www.wsfa.com/"}],"pollWeight":0.156,"pollAvg":13.36,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":11.9,"blend":24.37,"withCandidates":24.37,"final":22.68,"history":36.69,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-AL","gov-AL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Alabama senate, Alabama governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":25.5},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":65.5},"otherShare":3.0},{"id":"court-AL-place-7","st":"AL","state":"Alabama","office":"supreme-court","officeLabel":"Associate Justice of the Supreme Court, Place 7","dem":null,"gop":"Brad Mendheim","others":[],"incumbent":"Brad Mendheim","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Mendheim, appointed in 2018 and elected in 2020, was the only certified candidate and has no Democratic opponent. uncontested is set to the party running unopposed.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alabama_Supreme_Court_election","https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/election-2026/2026RepublicanCertification.pdf","https://theballotbrief.com/judges/alabama","https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama_Supreme_Court_elections,_2026","https://www.fox10tv.com/2025/11/10/ivey-appoints-new-justice-alabama-supreme-court"],"seat":"Place 7","slug":"supreme-court-place-7","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"R","est":{"margin":100.0,"prob":1.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"court-AL-place-8","st":"AL","state":"Alabama","office":"supreme-court","officeLabel":"Associate Justice of the Supreme Court, Place 8","dem":"AshLeigh Dunham","gop":"Greg Shaw","others":[],"incumbent":"Greg Shaw","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Shaw is seeking a fourth term against Democrat AshLeigh Dunham, a Jefferson County juvenile court referee. Ballotpedia lists a third Alabama seat, but the Secretary of State certification shows only Places 7 and 8; that seat is now held by Will Parker, appointed in November 2025, and appears not to be on the 2026 ballot.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alabama_Supreme_Court_election","https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/election-2026/2026RepublicanCertification.pdf","https://theballotbrief.com/judges/alabama","https://ballotpedia.org/Alabama_Supreme_Court_elections,_2026","https://www.fox10tv.com/2025/11/10/ivey-appoints-new-justice-alabama-supreme-court"],"seat":"Place 8","slug":"supreme-court-place-8","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":32.66,"prob":1.0,"p10":23.83,"p90":41.49},"votes":{"dem":569223,"rep":1129665,"other":17160,"total":1716050},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":11.9,"blend":30.31,"withCandidates":32.99,"final":32.99,"history":49.63,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-AL","gov-AL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Alabama senate, Alabama governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":20.0},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"treas-AL","st":"AL","state":"Alabama","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Rosilyn Houston","gop":"Young Boozer","others":[],"incumbent":"Young Boozer","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Boozer won R primary 68-32 over Steve Lolley; Houston (banker) qualified as D. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alabama_State_Treasurer_election","https://politics1.com/AL.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":35.34,"prob":1.0,"p10":26.51,"p90":44.17},"votes":{"dem":546199,"rep":1152690,"other":17160,"total":1716050},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":11.9,"blend":33.06,"withCandidates":35.7,"final":35.7,"history":55.06,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-AL","gov-AL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Alabama senate, Alabama governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":17.7},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":68.0},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ag-AR","st":"AR","state":"Arkansas","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":null,"gop":"Tim Griffin","others":[],"incumbent":"Tim Griffin","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Griffin unopposed; no Democratic or Libertarian AG nominee.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arkansas_Attorney_General_election","https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/10/Orrick-State-Attorney-General-2026-Election-Preview","https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/arkansas-libertarians-nominate-candidates-2026-182548621.html"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"R","est":{"margin":100.0,"prob":1.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"aud-AR","st":"AR","state":"Arkansas","office":"auditor","officeLabel":"Auditor","dem":null,"gop":"Dennis Milligan","others":[],"incumbent":"Dennis Milligan","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Office is Auditor of State. No D or Libertarian filed. The R primary file shows 0 votes because the unopposed primary was not held.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arkansas_elections","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/AR"],"seat":null,"slug":"auditor","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"R","est":{"margin":100.0,"prob":1.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"lg-AR","st":"AR","state":"Arkansas","office":"lieutenant-governor","officeLabel":"Lieutenant governor","dem":null,"gop":"Leslie Rutledge","others":[{"name":"Michael Kalagias","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Leslie Rutledge","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"No Democrat filed, so Rutledge's only opponent is Libertarian Kalagias. She was unopposed in the primary, and file 243871 has 0 votes. No polls.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arkansas_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election","https://politics1.com/ar.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"lieutenant-governor","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"R","est":{"margin":100.0,"prob":1.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"sos-AR","st":"AR","state":"Arkansas","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Kelly Grappe","gop":"Kim Hammer","others":[{"name":"Michael Pakko","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Cole Jester","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat. Jester was appointed in 2024 and the state constitution bars him from running; he is running for land commissioner. Hammer beat Bryan Norris 50.6 to 49.4 in the March 31 runoff, file 606838. Grappe was unopposed, and file 243874 has 0 votes. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arkansas_Secretary_of_State_election","https://politics1.com/ar.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":20.13,"prob":0.9987,"p10":11.59,"p90":28.68},"votes":{"dem":385521,"rep":583593,"other":14758,"total":983873},"polls":[{"pollster":"Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College","end":"2026-08-12","n":1217,"kind":"LV","D":40,"R":43,"U":12,"margin":3,"adjMargin":3.0,"lean":null,"age":83,"url":"https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-hammer-has-slim-lead-in-secretary-of-states-race/"}],"pollWeight":0.056,"pollAvg":4.51,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":12.04,"blend":17.93,"withCandidates":21.36,"final":20.44,"history":20.25,"candidateTerm":-0.08,"topRaces":["sen-AR","gov-AR"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Arkansas senate, Arkansas governor","ticketGap":4.93},"history":{"2022":32.9},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":0.0,"r_nominee_share":50.6},"otherShare":1.5},{"id":"treas-AR","st":"AR","state":"Arkansas","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":null,"gop":"John Thurston","others":[],"incumbent":"John Thurston","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Thurston won 2024 special election after Mark Lowery died; seeking first full term. No Democrat or Libertarian filed, so the race is uncontested. The R primary file shows 0 votes because the unopposed primary was not held. Not confirmed whether Arkansas prints unopposed state races on the ballot.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arkansas_elections","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/AR","https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/arkansas-libertarians-nominate-candidates-2026-182548621.html"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"R","est":{"margin":100.0,"prob":1.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"ag-AZ","st":"AZ","state":"Arizona","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Kris Mayes","gop":"Warren Petersen","others":[],"incumbent":"Kris Mayes","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Petersen beat Rodney Glassman 56.4-43.6 in R primary; Mayes unopposed in D primary. Poll figures from Wikipedia table; AARP poll numbers per Wikipedia, article confirms Mayes +5.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_Attorney_General_election","https://fox10phoenix.com/election/2026-election-kris-mayes-ahead-warren-petersen-arizona-ag-race-poll-shows"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-9.44,"prob":0.0343,"p10":-16.08,"p90":-2.8},"votes":{"dem":1727353,"rep":1426644,"other":31858,"total":3185856},"polls":[{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","end":"2026-10-28","n":511,"kind":"LV","D":50,"R":46,"U":4,"margin":-4,"adjMargin":-4.0,"lean":null,"age":6,"url":"https://ktar.com/arizona-politics-news/election/poll-governor-secretary-of-state-attorney-general"},{"pollster":"HighGround Inc.","end":"2026-10-25","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":52,"R":41,"U":7,"margin":-11,"adjMargin":-11.0,"lean":null,"age":9,"url":"https://www.highgroundpublicaffairs.com/"},{"pollster":"Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association (D)","end":"2026-10-15","n":800,"kind":"LV","D":52,"R":44,"U":4,"margin":-8,"adjMargin":-6.7,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":1.4},"age":19,"url":"https://static.washingtonsun.com/33/85/74b6a49f45b9b658bba4b65d6411/daga-state-polling-memo-f10-23-26.pdf"},{"pollster":"HighGround Inc.","end":"2026-10-08","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":51.5,"R":36.5,"U":11.2,"margin":-15.0,"adjMargin":-15.0,"lean":null,"age":26,"url":"https://azhighground.com/hurricane-season-for-arizona-republicans/"},{"pollster":"Equis Research","end":"2026-09-09","n":1214,"kind":"RV","D":45,"R":45,"U":10,"margin":0,"adjMargin":0.0,"lean":null,"age":55,"url":"https://www.weareequis.us/research/memo-arizona-voter-research---sept-2026"},{"pollster":"NextGen Polling","end":"2026-08-19","n":1627,"kind":"RV","D":37,"R":34,"U":29,"margin":-3,"adjMargin":-3.0,"lean":null,"age":76,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_Attorney_General_election"},{"pollster":"HighGround, Inc.","end":"2026-08-18","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":48,"R":40,"U":11,"margin":-8,"adjMargin":-8.0,"lean":null,"age":77,"url":"https://azhighground.com/arizona-democrats-lead-down-ballot-races/"},{"pollster":"GrayHouse (R)","end":"2026-08-13","n":600,"kind":"LV","D":47,"R":46,"U":7,"margin":-1,"adjMargin":-4.7,"lean":{"dir":"R","pts":3.7},"age":82,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_Attorney_General_election"},{"pollster":"Stealth Analytics","end":"2026-08-13","n":530,"kind":"LV","D":41,"R":38,"U":21,"margin":-3,"adjMargin":-3.0,"lean":null,"age":82,"url":"https://www.stealth-analytics.com/dispatches/az-general-lv-statewide-august-2026"},{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","end":"2026-08-13","n":923,"kind":"LV","D":44,"R":38,"U":16,"margin":-6,"adjMargin":-6.0,"lean":null,"age":82,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/fontes-and-mayes-lead-down-ballot-yee-holds-narrow-edge-for-schools-chief"},{"pollster":"Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) for AARP","end":"2026-07-28","n":913,"kind":"LV","D":48,"R":43,"U":9,"margin":-5,"adjMargin":-5.0,"lean":null,"age":98,"url":"https://fox10phoenix.com/election/2026-election-kris-mayes-ahead-warren-petersen-arizona-ag-race-poll-shows"}],"pollWeight":0.65,"pollAvg":-6.52,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-9.72,"blend":-11.75,"withCandidates":-15.07,"final":-9.53,"history":-13.21,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-AZ"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Arizona governor","ticketGap":2.15},"history":{"2022":49.5,"2014":47.3},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":56.4},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"mine-AZ","st":"AZ","state":"Arizona","office":"mine-inspector","officeLabel":"State Mine Inspector","dem":"Brian Matlock","gop":"Walter \"Les\" Presmyk","others":[],"incumbent":"Walter \"Les\" Presmyk","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Les Presmyk was appointed by Gov. Hobbs in 2025 after Paul Marsh resigned; he and Democrat Brian Matlock were both unopposed in the July 21 primaries. No polls found.","sources":["https://www.fox10phoenix.com/election/2026-election-arizona-mine-inspector-candidates-face-off-debate","https://www.270towin.com/content/other-statewide-office-primary-elections-in-arizona"],"seat":null,"slug":"mine-inspector","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-7.61,"prob":0.116,"p10":-15.77,"p90":0.55},"votes":{"dem":1698195,"rep":1455801,"other":31858,"total":3185856},"polls":[{"pollster":"Stealth Analytics","end":"2026-08-13","n":530,"kind":"LV","D":33,"R":38,"U":29,"margin":5,"adjMargin":5.0,"lean":null,"age":82,"url":"https://www.stealth-analytics.com/deliverables/az-general-august-2026-topline.pdf"}],"pollWeight":0.038,"pollAvg":3.82,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-9.72,"blend":-11.48,"withCandidates":-8.14,"final":-7.69,"history":-12.63,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["gov-AZ"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Arizona governor","ticketGap":2.15},"history":{"2022":48.9,"2014":47.4},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"psc-AZ","st":"AZ","state":"Arizona","office":"public-service-commission","officeLabel":"Corporation Commission","dem":"Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill","gop":"Kevin Thompson and Ralph Heap","others":[{"name":"Mike Cease","party":"Green"}],"incumbent":"Kevin Thompson; Nick Myers","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Vote for two. Both seats are held by Republicans Kevin Thompson and Nick Myers; Thompson led the July 21 GOP primary and state Rep. Ralph Heap ousted Myers, who conceded. Democrats Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill are running as a slate, and Green Mike Cease is also on the ballot. No polls found.","sources":["https://www.kjzz.org/politics/2026-07-23/2-arizona-corporation-commissioners-ran-for-reelection-only-1-made-it-out-of-gop-primary","https://votesolar.org/?p=11718","https://www.fox10phoenix.com/election/2026-election-arizona-corporation-commissioner-candidates-debate","https://www.kjzz.org/elections/2026-10-06/2026-arizona-corporation-commission-race-the-candidates-elex","https://www.cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/results-july-21st-primary-arizona"],"seat":null,"slug":"public-service-commission","seatsUp":2,"est":{"margin":-7.47,"prob":0.1202,"p10":-15.63,"p90":0.69},"votes":{"dem":1687978,"rep":1449975,"other":47902,"total":3185856},"polls":[{"pollster":"Stealth Analytics","end":"2026-08-13","n":530,"kind":"LV","D":31,"R":38,"U":24,"margin":7,"adjMargin":7.0,"lean":null,"age":82,"url":"https://www.stealth-analytics.com/deliverables/az-general-august-2026-topline.pdf"}],"pollWeight":0.038,"pollAvg":6.48,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-9.72,"blend":-11.48,"withCandidates":-8.14,"final":-7.58,"history":-12.63,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["gov-AZ"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Arizona governor","ticketGap":2.15},"history":{"2022":48.9,"2014":47.4},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.5},{"id":"sos-AZ","st":"AZ","state":"Arizona","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Adrian Fontes","gop":"Alexander Kolodin","others":[{"name":"Duwayne Collier","party":"Green"}],"incumbent":"Adrian Fontes","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Kolodin beat Gina Swoboda in the GOP primary. Poll rows come from the Wikipedia race page. Its rows are not linked one by one, so URLs were matched to the reference list by pollster and date. No source URL was found for Grayhouse. Wikipedia lists no sponsors. Equis Research is a Democratic-aligned research group. KTAR confirmed the NPI numbers.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_Secretary_of_State_election","https://ktar.com/arizona-politics-news/election/poll-democrats-lead-down-ballot"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-9.85,"prob":0.0287,"p10":-16.49,"p90":-3.21},"votes":{"dem":1725901,"rep":1412166,"other":47787,"total":3185856},"polls":[{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","end":"2026-10-28","n":511,"kind":"LV","D":50,"R":44,"U":6,"margin":-6,"adjMargin":-6.0,"lean":null,"age":6,"url":"https://ktar.com/arizona-politics-news/election/poll-governor-secretary-of-state-attorney-general"},{"pollster":"HighGround Inc.","end":"2026-10-25","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":50,"R":38,"U":12,"margin":-12,"adjMargin":-12.0,"lean":null,"age":9,"url":"https://www.highgroundpublicaffairs.com/"},{"pollster":"Equis Research","end":"2026-09-09","n":1214,"kind":"RV","D":46,"R":44,"U":10,"margin":-2,"adjMargin":-2.0,"lean":null,"age":55,"url":"https://www.weareequis.us/research/memo-arizona-voter-research---sept-2026"},{"pollster":"Arizona State University","end":"2026-09-04","n":1300,"kind":"RV","D":39,"R":35,"U":23,"margin":-4,"adjMargin":-4.0,"lean":null,"age":60,"url":"https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wwuz99s4jj7q4eot3gjak/Topline-ASU-Survey-August-2026.pdf?rlkey=ftd9j7m13txzpvche7encqmqm&st=tf10u4h2&e=2&dl=0"},{"pollster":"HighGround, Inc.","end":"2026-08-18","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":43,"R":35,"U":19,"margin":-8,"adjMargin":-8.0,"lean":null,"age":77,"url":"https://azhighground.com/arizona-democrats-lead-down-ballot-races/"},{"pollster":"Grayhouse (R)","end":"2026-08-13","n":600,"kind":"LV","D":46,"R":42,"U":12,"margin":-4,"adjMargin":-7.7,"lean":{"dir":"R","pts":3.7},"age":82,"url":null},{"pollster":"Stealth Analytics","end":"2026-08-13","n":530,"kind":"LV","D":39,"R":38,"U":21,"margin":-1,"adjMargin":-1.0,"lean":null,"age":82,"url":"https://www.stealth-analytics.com/dispatches/az-general-lv-statewide-august-2026"},{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","end":"2026-08-13","n":923,"kind":"LV","D":41,"R":35,"U":20,"margin":-6,"adjMargin":-6.0,"lean":null,"age":82,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/fontes-and-mayes-lead-down-ballot-yee-holds-narrow-edge-for-schools-chief"}],"pollWeight":0.65,"pollAvg":-6.79,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-9.72,"blend":-12.59,"withCandidates":-15.9,"final":-10.0,"history":-14.97,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-AZ"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Arizona governor","ticketGap":2.15},"history":{"2022":50.6,"2014":47.6},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":59.8},"otherShare":1.5},{"id":"supt-AZ","st":"AZ","state":"Arizona","office":"superintendent","officeLabel":"Superintendent of Public Instruction","dem":"Teresa Leyba Ruiz","gop":"Kimberly Yee","others":[],"incumbent":"Tom Horne","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"State Treasurer Kimberly Yee beat incumbent Tom Horne in the July 21 GOP primary, 53.2 to 46.8, and Teresa Leyba Ruiz beat Brett Newby 79.5 to 20.5 for the Democrats. Gerard Davis (Green) and Stephen Neal Jr. (No Labels) are write-in candidates only and are not printed on the ballot.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_Superintendent_of_Public_Instruction_election","https://noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/fontes-and-mayes-lead-down-ballot-yee-holds-narrow-edge-for-schools-chief","https://www.fox10phoenix.com/election/2026-election-debate-arizona-superintendent-public-instruction-candidates","https://www.270towin.com/content/other-statewide-office-primary-elections-in-arizona"],"seat":null,"slug":"superintendent","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-4.48,"prob":0.1938,"p10":-11.12,"p90":2.16},"votes":{"dem":1648359,"rep":1505637,"other":31858,"total":3185856},"polls":[{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","end":"2026-10-28","n":511,"kind":"LV","D":46,"R":48,"U":5,"margin":2,"adjMargin":2.0,"lean":null,"age":6,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/az-poll-of-record-hobbs-6-yee-bucks-the-trend"},{"pollster":"HighGround Inc.","end":"2026-10-25","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":47.0,"R":42.8,"U":10.2,"margin":-4.2,"adjMargin":-4.2,"lean":null,"age":9,"url":"https://azhighground.com/trailing-republicans-gain-ground-in-latest-survey/"},{"pollster":"HighGround Inc.","end":"2026-10-08","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":44.7,"R":38.3,"U":0,"margin":-6.4,"adjMargin":-6.4,"lean":null,"age":26,"url":"https://azhighground.com/hurricane-season-for-arizona-republicans/"},{"pollster":"HighGround","end":"2026-08-18","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":42,"R":41,"U":16,"margin":-1,"adjMargin":-1.0,"lean":null,"age":77,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_Superintendent_of_Public_Instruction_election"},{"pollster":"Grayhouse (R)","end":"2026-08-13","n":600,"kind":"LV","D":42,"R":45,"U":13,"margin":3,"adjMargin":-0.7,"lean":{"dir":"R","pts":3.7},"age":82,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_Superintendent_of_Public_Instruction_election"},{"pollster":"Stealth Analytics","end":"2026-08-13","n":530,"kind":"LV","D":38,"R":42,"U":20,"margin":4,"adjMargin":4.0,"lean":null,"age":82,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_Superintendent_of_Public_Instruction_election"},{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights","end":"2026-08-13","n":923,"kind":"LV","D":37,"R":40,"U":20,"margin":3,"adjMargin":3.0,"lean":null,"age":82,"url":"https://noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/fontes-and-mayes-lead-down-ballot-yee-holds-narrow-edge-for-schools-chief"}],"pollWeight":0.649,"pollAvg":-0.74,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-9.72,"blend":-11.48,"withCandidates":-11.48,"final":-4.53,"history":-12.63,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["gov-AZ"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Arizona governor","ticketGap":2.15},"history":{"2022":48.9,"2014":47.4},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"treas-AZ","st":"AZ","state":"Arizona","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Nick Mansour","gop":"Elijah Norton","others":[],"incumbent":"Kimberly Yee","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat: Yee term-limited, running for superintendent. Norton beat Katherine Haley 56-44 in R primary; Mansour unopposed in D primary. Oct HighGround release gives only D/R toplines, so U holds other plus undecided combined. Grayhouse and Stealth figures come from the Wikipedia poll table; the Stealth page itself only links the topline PDF, and no Grayhouse release URL was found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_State_Treasurer_election","https://azhighground.com/hurricane-season-for-arizona-republicans/","https://ktar.com/arizona-politics-news/election/arizona-poll-democrats-lead-races"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-7.95,"prob":0.0804,"p10":-15.22,"p90":-0.68},"votes":{"dem":1703666,"rep":1450331,"other":31858,"total":3185856},"polls":[{"pollster":"HighGround Inc.","end":"2026-10-25","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":46.8,"R":40.5,"U":12.7,"margin":-6.3,"adjMargin":-6.3,"lean":null,"age":9,"url":"https://azhighground.com/trailing-republicans-gain-ground-in-latest-survey/"},{"pollster":"HighGround Inc.","end":"2026-10-08","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":44.5,"R":35.3,"U":20.2,"margin":-9.2,"adjMargin":-9.2,"lean":null,"age":26,"url":"https://azhighground.com/hurricane-season-for-arizona-republicans/"},{"pollster":"HighGround Inc.","end":"2026-08-18","n":400,"kind":"LV","D":41.8,"R":39.0,"U":19.2,"margin":-2.8,"adjMargin":-2.8,"lean":null,"age":77,"url":"https://azhighground.com/arizona-democrats-lead-down-ballot-races/"},{"pollster":"Grayhouse (R)","end":"2026-08-13","n":600,"kind":"LV","D":39,"R":41,"U":20,"margin":2,"adjMargin":-1.7,"lean":{"dir":"R","pts":3.7},"age":82,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Arizona_State_Treasurer_election"},{"pollster":"Stealth Analytics","end":"2026-08-13","n":530,"kind":"LV","D":35,"R":39,"U":23,"margin":4,"adjMargin":4.0,"lean":null,"age":82,"url":"https://www.stealth-analytics.com/dispatches/az-general-lv-statewide-august-2026"}],"pollWeight":0.397,"pollAvg":-4.87,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-9.72,"blend":-10.1,"withCandidates":-10.1,"final":-8.03,"history":-9.68,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["gov-AZ"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Arizona governor","ticketGap":2.15},"history":{"2022":46.6,"2014":47.4},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":56.4},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ag-CA","st":"CA","state":"California","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Rob Bonta","gop":"Michael Gates","others":[],"incumbent":"Rob Bonta","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Top-two primary Jun 2: Bonta 56.6, Gates 37.9, Marjorie Mikels (Green) 5.4; only Bonta and Gates advance. No post-primary general polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_Attorney_General_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-30.14,"prob":0.0,"p10":-37.82,"p90":-22.46},"votes":{"dem":8715158,"rep":4646866,"other":134969,"total":13496995},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-26.41,"blend":-27.43,"withCandidates":-30.45,"final":-30.45,"history":-31.33,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-CA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: California governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":59.2,"2018":62.9,"2014":57.1},"primary":{"t_nominee_share":56.6},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"comp-CA","st":"CA","state":"California","office":"comptroller","officeLabel":"State Controller","dem":"Malia Cohen","gop":"Herb Morgan","others":[],"incumbent":"Malia Cohen","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Top two primary on June 2 sent incumbent Democrat Cohen at 56.8 percent and Republican Morgan at 37.5 percent to November, so this is a normal D vs R general; Peace and Freedom candidate Meghann Adams finished third and is not on the November ballot. The Wolfson poll memo names no sponsor and was publicized by California Globe alongside Morgan campaign coverage, so treat it as possibly partisan.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_State_Controller_election","https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-general/cert-list-candidates.pdf","https://californiaglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/CA.Controller.PollingMemo.pdf","https://californiaglobe.com/tag/pollster-david-wolfson/"],"seat":null,"slug":"comptroller","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-28.09,"prob":0.0,"p10":-35.53,"p90":-20.64},"votes":{"dem":8576375,"rep":4785649,"other":134969,"total":13496995},"polls":[{"pollster":"David Wolfson","end":"2026-09-16","n":828,"kind":"LV","D":49.5,"R":41.2,"U":9.4,"margin":-8.3,"adjMargin":-8.3,"lean":null,"age":48,"url":"https://californiaglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/CA.Controller.PollingMemo.pdf"}],"pollWeight":0.101,"pollAvg":-9.72,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-26.41,"blend":-27.35,"withCandidates":-30.36,"final":-28.37,"history":-31.08,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-CA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: California governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":59.4,"2018":62.2,"2014":56.8},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ins-CA","st":"CA","state":"California","office":"insurance-commissioner","officeLabel":"Insurance Commissioner","dem":"Jane Kim","gop":null,"others":[{"name":"Ben Allen","party":"Democratic"}],"incumbent":"Ricardo Lara","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Democrat versus Democrat under top two: Jane Kim 27.4 and state Sen. Ben Allen 19.4 advanced from the June 2 primary, ahead of Republican Stacy Korsgaden at 15.5. Ricardo Lara is term limited. No Republican on the November ballot.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_Insurance_Commissioner_election","https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/poll-california-voters-undecided-in-democrat-showdown-for-insurance-commissioner","https://www.probolskyresearch.com/?p=9142"],"seat":null,"slug":"insurance-commissioner","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"D","est":{"margin":-100.0,"prob":0.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"lg-CA","st":"CA","state":"California","office":"lieutenant-governor","officeLabel":"Lieutenant governor","dem":"Fiona Ma","gop":"Gloria Romero","others":[],"incumbent":"Eleni Kounalakis","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Kounalakis is term-limited and running for treasurer. Romero is a former Democratic state senator now running as a Republican. Polls that included both were pre-primary multi-candidate polls (Binder for Fryday, Tulchin for Ma, the CSULB/USC/Cal Poly Pomona poll). No head-to-head general polls were found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election","https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/fiona-ma-and-gloria-romero-advance-to-lieutenant-governor-general-election/3902677/"],"seat":null,"slug":"lieutenant-governor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-26.37,"prob":0.0,"p10":-34.04,"p90":-18.69},"votes":{"dem":8460394,"rep":4901630,"other":134969,"total":13496995},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-26.41,"blend":-26.63,"withCandidates":-26.63,"final":-26.63,"history":-29.38,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["gov-CA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: California governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":59.6,"2018":59.4,"2014":57.0},"primary":{"t_nominee_share":19.1},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"sos-CA","st":"CA","state":"California","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Shirley Weber","gop":"Don Wagner","others":[],"incumbent":"Shirley Weber","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Top-two general between Weber (D) and Wagner (R, Orange County supervisor). No general election polls found; Berkeley IGS releases after June do not include this race.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_Secretary_of_State_election","https://igs.berkeley.edu/research/berkeley-igs-poll/2026-berkeley-igs-poll-releases"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-30.56,"prob":0.0,"p10":-38.23,"p90":-22.88},"votes":{"dem":8743061,"rep":4618963,"other":134969,"total":13496995},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-26.41,"blend":-27.86,"withCandidates":-30.86,"final":-30.86,"history":-32.23,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-CA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: California governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":59.7,"2018":63.3,"2014":55.2},"primary":{"t_nominee_share":58.7},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"treas-CA","st":"CA","state":"California","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Eleni Kounalakis","gop":"Jennifer Hawks","others":[],"incumbent":"Fiona Ma","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat: Ma term-limited, running for Lt. Gov. Top-two primary June 2: Kounalakis D 36.7, Hawks R 24.0. Glenn Turner, Green, eliminated. No general election polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_California_State_Treasurer_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-27.18,"prob":0.0,"p10":-34.86,"p90":-19.5},"votes":{"dem":8515259,"rep":4846765,"other":134969,"total":13496995},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-26.41,"blend":-27.45,"withCandidates":-27.45,"final":-27.45,"history":-31.35,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["gov-CA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: California governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":59.1,"2018":63.2,"2014":57.8},"primary":{"t_nominee_share":36.7},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ag-CO","st":"CO","state":"Colorado","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Jena Griswold","gop":"Michael Allen","others":[],"incumbent":"Phil Weiser","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Weiser term-limited, ran for governor. Griswold won Jun 30 D primary over Seligman, Dougherty, Doshi; Allen beat David Willson in R primary. No general polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Colorado_Attorney_General_election","https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2026/10/02/colorado-griswold-allen-attorney-general-race/","https://pueblostarjournal.org/news/2026/06/30/jena-griswold-wins-democratic-primary-colorado-attorney-general/"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-19.95,"prob":0.0039,"p10":-29.55,"p90":-10.35},"votes":{"dem":1640531,"rep":1074967,"other":119156,"total":2834656},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.24,"F":0.12,"G":0.08,"H":0.4,"P":0.16},"topOfTicket":-21.76,"blend":-24.24,"withCandidates":-20.83,"final":-20.83,"history":-21.09,"candidateTerm":-0.08,"topRaces":["sen-CO","gov-CO"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Colorado senate, Colorado governor","ticketGap":4.77},"history":{"2022":56.0,"2018":53.8,"2014":46.1},"primary":{"dem_primary_votes":872453,"rep_primary_votes":479825,"dem_share":64.5,"dem_nominee_share":44.2,"rep_nominee_share":59.9},"otherShare":4.2},{"id":"sos-CO","st":"CO","state":"Colorado","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Amanda Gonzalez","gop":"James Wiley","others":[{"name":"Sean Vadney","party":"Libertarian"},{"name":"Celeste Landry","party":"Forward"}],"incumbent":"Jena Griswold","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Griswold is term-limited. Gonzalez, the Jefferson County clerk, beat Jessie Danielson in the June 30 Democratic primary. Wiley, a former Libertarian Party of Colorado executive director, was unopposed for the Republican nomination. The Wikipedia page is stale here: it lists the Democratic nominee as TBD and labels Wiley inconsistently. Colorado Politics also mentions Amanda Campbell of the American Constitution Party. No polls found.","sources":["https://www.cpr.org/2026/06/30/colorado-secretary-of-state-primary-election-2026-results/","https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2026/10/02/gonzales-wiley-vadney-landry-secretary-of-state/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Colorado_Secretary_of_State_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-19.04,"prob":0.0055,"p10":-28.64,"p90":-9.44},"votes":{"dem":1591546,"rep":1051790,"other":191319,"total":2834656},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-21.76,"blend":-20.42,"withCandidates":-20.42,"final":-20.42,"history":-21.55,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-CO","gov-CO"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Colorado senate, Colorado governor","ticketGap":4.77},"history":{"2022":56.4,"2018":53.8,"2014":47.9},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":64.4},"otherShare":6.7},{"id":"treas-CO","st":"CO","state":"Colorado","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Jeff Bridges","gop":"Kevin Grantham","others":[{"name":"Jodie Barr","party":"Libertarian"},{"name":"Marilee Langner Sturgis","party":"Approval Voting"}],"incumbent":"Dave Young","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat: Young term-limited. Both major-party primaries were unopposed. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Colorado_State_Treasurer_election","https://politics1.com/CO.htm","https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2026/10/02/state-treasurer-grantham-bridges-barr-seek-top-financial-position-3/"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-19.04,"prob":0.0055,"p10":-28.64,"p90":-9.44},"votes":{"dem":1612323,"rep":1072697,"other":149635,"total":2834656},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-21.76,"blend":-20.1,"withCandidates":-20.1,"final":-20.1,"history":-20.79,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-CO","gov-CO"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Colorado senate, Colorado governor","ticketGap":4.77},"history":{"2022":55.8,"2018":53.8,"2014":47.2},"primary":null,"otherShare":5.3},{"id":"ag-CT","st":"CT","state":"Connecticut","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"William Tong","gop":"John Bolton","others":[],"incumbent":"William Tong","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Republican John Bolton is a Westport attorney, not the former NSA. Tong also on Working Families line. UNH other was under 1%.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Connecticut_Attorney_General_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-24.43,"prob":0.0001,"p10":-32.69,"p90":-16.16},"votes":{"dem":881933,"rep":531277,"other":22330,"total":1435542},"polls":[{"pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","end":"2026-09-21","n":540,"kind":"LV","D":57,"R":30,"U":13,"margin":-27,"adjMargin":-27.0,"lean":null,"age":43,"url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2009&context=survey_center_polls"}],"pollWeight":0.091,"pollAvg":-28.59,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-19.32,"blend":-21.15,"withCandidates":-24.43,"final":-24.81,"history":-22.61,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-CT"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Connecticut governor","ticketGap":-1.42},"history":{"2022":57.0,"2018":54.2,"2014":55.8},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.6},{"id":"comp-CT","st":"CT","state":"Connecticut","office":"comptroller","officeLabel":"Comptroller","dem":"Sean Scanlon","gop":"Jennifer S. Tooker","others":[],"incumbent":"Sean Scanlon","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Incumbent Democrat Scanlon seeks a second term and also appears on the Working Families and Independent Party lines; former Westport first selectwoman Tooker is the Republican nominee. No general election polls found.","sources":["https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/sots/electionservices/town_ballots/2026/nov-ada-2026/bridgeport_sample_ada.pdf","https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/sots/electionservices/town_ballots/2026/nov-2026/westport_sample.pdf"],"seat":null,"slug":"comptroller","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-23.79,"prob":0.0002,"p10":-32.29,"p90":-15.3},"votes":{"dem":877439,"rep":535879,"other":22222,"total":1435542},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-19.32,"blend":-20.88,"withCandidates":-24.17,"final":-24.17,"history":-22.04,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-CT"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Connecticut governor","ticketGap":-1.42},"history":{"2022":56.0,"2018":55.3,"2014":53.7},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.5},{"id":"sos-CT","st":"CT","state":"Connecticut","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Stephanie Thomas","gop":"Peter Lumaj","others":[],"incumbent":"Stephanie Thomas","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Office is Secretary of the State. The November sample ballot lists Thomas on the Democratic, Working Families and Independent Party lines and Lumaj as the Republican. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Connecticut_Secretary_of_the_State_election","https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/sots/electionservices/town_ballots/2026/nov-ada-2026/north_branford_sample_ada.pdf"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-23.94,"prob":0.0002,"p10":-32.44,"p90":-15.44},"votes":{"dem":875499,"rep":531832,"other":28210,"total":1435542},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-19.32,"blend":-21.13,"withCandidates":-24.42,"final":-24.42,"history":-22.57,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-CT"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Connecticut governor","ticketGap":-1.42},"history":{"2022":56.0,"2018":56.1,"2014":52.9},"primary":null,"otherShare":2.0},{"id":"treas-CT","st":"CT","state":"Connecticut","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Erick Russell","gop":"Fred Wilms","others":[],"incumbent":"Erick Russell","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Fusion ballot: Russell also on Working Families line, Wilms also on Independent Party line, per the town sample ballot. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Connecticut_State_Treasurer_election","https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/sots/electionservices/town_ballots/2026/nov-2026/westport_sample.pdf"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-23.35,"prob":0.0002,"p10":-31.85,"p90":-14.86},"votes":{"dem":876329,"rep":541088,"other":18123,"total":1435542},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-19.32,"blend":-20.35,"withCandidates":-23.65,"final":-23.65,"history":-20.93,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-CT"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Connecticut governor","ticketGap":-1.42},"history":{"2022":54.9,"2018":55.6,"2014":52.3},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.3},{"id":"ag-DE","st":"DE","state":"Delaware","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Kathy Jennings","gop":"Dave Graham","others":[],"incumbent":"Kathy Jennings","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Jennings won Sep 15 D primary over Dwayne Bensing and Patty Rickman; Graham unopposed for R nomination. No general polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Delaware_Attorney_General_election","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-delaware-midterm-primaries","https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/10/Orrick-State-Attorney-General-2026-Election-Preview"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-29.31,"prob":0.0,"p10":-38.9,"p90":-19.73},"votes":{"dem":264627,"rep":142116,"other":11175,"total":417920},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-28.85,"blend":-27.09,"withCandidates":-30.12,"final":-30.12,"history":-22.36,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-DE"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Delaware senate","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":53.9,"2018":59.4,"2014":53.4},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":71.2},"otherShare":2.7},{"id":"aud-DE","st":"DE","state":"Delaware","office":"auditor","officeLabel":"Auditor","dem":"Lydia York","gop":"April Callaway","others":[{"name":"Austin Cassidy","party":"Independent Party of Delaware"}],"incumbent":"Lydia York","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Office is Auditor of Accounts. Callaway was nominated by the state GOP in August per the DE Elections filing list, after the convention produced no endorsed candidate. Her status is somewhat uncertain. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Delaware_State_Auditor_election","https://politics1.com/DE.htm","https://theballotbrief.com/candidate/april-callaway-de"],"seat":null,"slug":"auditor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-29.23,"prob":0.0,"p10":-38.82,"p90":-19.65},"votes":{"dem":266914,"rep":144736,"other":6268,"total":417920},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-28.85,"blend":-26.64,"withCandidates":-29.68,"final":-29.68,"history":-21.4,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-DE"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Delaware senate","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":54.0,"2018":57.7,"2014":47.6},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.5},{"id":"treas-DE","st":"DE","state":"Delaware","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Ted Lauzen","gop":"Mike Ramone","others":[],"incumbent":"Colleen Davis","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat: Davis not seeking a third term. Lauzen won the Sept 15 D primary over Mike Miller and Michael Smith, with 38,566 of 85,169 votes per the CSV. Ramone, former House minority leader and 2024 governor nominee, was unopposed for the R nomination. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Delaware_State_Treasurer_election","https://6abc.com/post/what-expect-delawares-state-primary-voters-head-polls/19835025/","https://politics1.com/DE.htm","https://ballotpedia.org/Ted_Lauzen"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-25.4,"prob":0.0003,"p10":-34.98,"p90":-15.82},"votes":{"dem":258875,"rep":152724,"other":6320,"total":417920},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-28.85,"blend":-25.79,"withCandidates":-25.79,"final":-25.79,"history":-19.49,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-DE"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Delaware senate","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":53.8,"2018":55.4,"2014":47.1},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":45.3},"otherShare":1.5},{"id":"agri-FL","st":"FL","state":"Florida","office":"agriculture-commissioner","officeLabel":"Agriculture commissioner","dem":"Joey Mendoza Atkins","gop":"Wilton Simpson","others":[],"incumbent":"Wilton Simpson","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Simpson beat Matt Taylor 69-31; Atkins beat Don Prichard 60-40 in Aug 18 primaries. JMI RV result: R45 D36 O3 U15, n=1172.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_Commissioner_of_Agriculture_election","https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/08/18/the-florida-cabinet-races-are-set-for-november/","https://jamesmadison.org/wp-content/uploads/JMI-October-2026-Poll-Marginals.pdf"],"seat":null,"slug":"agriculture-commissioner","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":9.0,"prob":0.9222,"p10":0.88,"p90":17.12},"votes":{"dem":4021589,"rep":4825614,"other":89365,"total":8936569},"polls":[{"pollster":"Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (conservative)","end":"2026-10-04","n":852,"kind":"LV","D":39,"R":50,"U":8,"margin":11,"adjMargin":11.0,"lean":null,"age":30,"url":"https://jamesmadison.org/wp-content/uploads/JMI-October-2026-Poll-Marginals.pdf"}],"pollWeight":0.153,"pollAvg":11.7,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.24,"F":0.12,"G":0.08,"H":0.4,"P":0.16},"topOfTicket":2.73,"blend":2.66,"withCandidates":8.62,"final":9.09,"history":2.35,"candidateTerm":-0.127,"topRaces":["sen-FL","gov-FL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Florida senate, Florida governor","ticketGap":0.71},"history":{"2022":40.5,"2018":49.3,"2014":41.8},"primary":{"dem_primary_votes":1189144,"rep_primary_votes":1612531,"dem_share":42.4,"dem_nominee_share":60.3,"rep_nominee_share":68.9},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ag-FL","st":"FL","state":"Florida","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Jos\u00e9 Javier Rodr\u00edguez","gop":"James Uthmeier","others":[],"incumbent":"James Uthmeier","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Uthmeier appointed 2025 after Ashley Moody went to US Senate; seeking full term. No primaries for either party. JMI RV result: R46 D37 O3 U14, n=1163. Oct St. Pete Polls numbers via politicalcortadito, Florida Politics page could not be fetched; n unknown. Orrick mentions another Sept poll tied 46-46, source not found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_Attorney_General_election","https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/08/18/the-florida-cabinet-races-are-set-for-november/","https://politicalcortadito.com/2026/10/15/national-democrat-party-florida-attorney-general-race/","https://jamesmadison.org/wp-content/uploads/JMI-October-2026-Poll-Marginals.pdf"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":5.55,"prob":0.8506,"p10":-1.3,"p90":12.4},"votes":{"dem":4150417,"rep":4646600,"other":139552,"total":8936569},"polls":[{"pollster":"St. Pete Polls (Fextel) for Florida Politics","end":"2026-10-27","n":916,"kind":"LV","D":43.9,"R":48.7,"U":7.4,"margin":4.8,"adjMargin":4.8,"lean":null,"age":7,"url":"https://www.stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2026_State_Gov_October27_P4GSI29L.pdf"},{"pollster":"St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics","end":"2026-10-07","n":null,"kind":"LV","D":43,"R":45,"U":12,"margin":2,"adjMargin":2.0,"lean":null,"age":27,"url":"https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823945-republicans-hold-2-point-edges-in-cabinet-races-james-uthmeier-45-43-over-jose-javier-rodriguez-blaise-ingoglia-44-42-over-annette-taddeo/"},{"pollster":"Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (conservative)","end":"2026-10-04","n":854,"kind":"LV","D":40,"R":50,"U":7,"margin":10,"adjMargin":10.0,"lean":null,"age":30,"url":"https://jamesmadison.org/wp-content/uploads/JMI-October-2026-Poll-Marginals.pdf"},{"pollster":"St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics","end":"2026-09-17","n":913,"kind":"LV","D":42,"R":43,"U":15,"margin":1,"adjMargin":1.0,"lean":null,"age":47,"url":"https://www.miamitimesonline.com/news/florida/poll-james-uthmeier-43-jos-javier-rodr-guez-42-as-attorney-general-holds-narrow-edge/article_fe0d4218-dcf1-4cfd-b79a-f431a61a6fda.html"},{"pollster":"Change Research for Freedom Project USA (listed as D on Wikipedia)","end":"2026-09-09","n":1107,"kind":"LV","D":46,"R":46,"U":8,"margin":0,"adjMargin":2.5,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":2.5},"age":55,"url":"https://changeresearch.com/research/2026/2026-09-10-florida-aapor-methodology-statement"}],"pollWeight":0.65,"pollAvg":5.05,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":2.73,"blend":3.45,"withCandidates":6.73,"final":5.64,"history":4.31,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-FL","gov-FL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Florida senate, Florida governor","ticketGap":0.71},"history":{"2022":39.8,"2018":47.7,"2014":42.8},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.6},{"id":"treas-FL","st":"FL","state":"Florida","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Annette Taddeo","gop":"Blaise Ingoglia","others":[],"incumbent":"Blaise Ingoglia","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Office is Chief Financial Officer, which serves as Florida's state treasurer; Ballotpedia's 25-treasurer count includes it. Ingoglia was appointed July 2025 to replace Jimmy Patronis and is seeking a full term. Ingoglia beat Frank Collige 61-39; Taddeo beat Earle Ford 66-34. The two Targoz rows are the LV and RV cuts of one JMI poll. In the Change Research row, O is 'would not vote'. A Ruth's List poll from Apr 23-30 is excluded as pre-June. No URL was found for the SEA Polling release.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_Chief_Financial_Officer_election","https://politics1.com/FL.htm","https://www.miamitimesonline.com/news/florida/annette-taddeo-blaise-ingoglia-tied-in-new-poll-touting-emerging-florida-blue-wave/article_faacf796-e65e-485f-bfd9-4ae0dc4b8de7.html"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":3.24,"prob":0.7276,"p10":-3.61,"p90":10.09},"votes":{"dem":4278958,"rep":4568245,"other":89365,"total":8936569},"polls":[{"pollster":"St. Pete Polls (Fextel) for Florida Politics","end":"2026-10-27","n":916,"kind":"LV","D":43.4,"R":47.2,"U":9.3,"margin":3.8,"adjMargin":3.8,"lean":null,"age":7,"url":"https://www.stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2026_State_Gov_October27_P4GSI29L.pdf"},{"pollster":"St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics","end":"2026-10-07","n":836,"kind":"LV","D":42,"R":44,"U":14,"margin":2,"adjMargin":2.0,"lean":null,"age":27,"url":"https://www.stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2026_State_Gov_October7_K7ZU3GA.pdf"},{"pollster":"Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (R-leaning think tank)","end":"2026-10-04","n":853,"kind":"LV","D":43,"R":43,"U":10,"margin":0,"adjMargin":0.0,"lean":null,"age":30,"url":"https://floridapolitics.com/archives/824045-byron-donalds-52-david-jolly-42-in-jmi-poll-as-blaise-ingoglia-and-annette-taddeo-tie-at-43/"},{"pollster":"Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (R-leaning think tank)","end":"2026-10-04","n":1166,"kind":"RV","D":38,"R":40,"U":17,"margin":2,"adjMargin":2.0,"lean":null,"age":30,"url":"https://jamesmadison.org/wp-content/uploads/JMI-October-2026-Poll-Marginals.pdf"},{"pollster":"SEA Polling (D)","end":"2026-09-13","n":701,"kind":"LV","D":42,"R":42,"U":16,"margin":0,"adjMargin":1.6,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":1.6},"age":51,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_Chief_Financial_Officer_election"},{"pollster":"Change Research for Freedom Project USA (listed as D on Wikipedia)","end":"2026-09-09","n":1107,"kind":"LV","D":44,"R":44,"U":11,"margin":0,"adjMargin":2.5,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":2.5},"age":55,"url":"https://changeresearch.com/research/2026/2026-09-10-florida-aapor-methodology-statement"}],"pollWeight":0.65,"pollAvg":2.56,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.24,"F":0.12,"G":0.08,"H":0.4,"P":0.16},"topOfTicket":2.73,"blend":2.62,"withCandidates":4.6,"final":3.27,"history":3.01,"candidateTerm":-0.042,"topRaces":["sen-FL","gov-FL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Florida senate, Florida governor","ticketGap":0.71},"history":{"2022":40.4,"2018":48.5,"2014":42.3},"primary":{"dem_primary_votes":1213132,"rep_primary_votes":1578579,"dem_share":43.5,"dem_nominee_share":65.6,"rep_nominee_share":61.3},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"agri-GA","st":"GA","state":"Georgia","office":"agriculture-commissioner","officeLabel":"Agriculture commissioner","dem":"Katherine Juhan-Arnold","gop":"Tyler Harper","others":[],"incumbent":"Tyler Harper","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Harper unopposed in R primary; Juhan-Arnold beat Sedrick Rowe 62-38. No general polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_Agriculture_Commissioner_election","https://www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/news/georgia-2026-midterm-election-sample-ballot-candidates-resolutions/"],"seat":null,"slug":"agriculture-commissioner","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-3.16,"prob":0.2906,"p10":-10.52,"p90":4.19},"votes":{"dem":2385671,"rep":2237864,"other":46702,"total":4670238},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-8.4,"blend":-5.95,"withCandidates":-3.2,"final":-3.2,"history":-4.14,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-GA","gov-GA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Georgia senate, Georgia governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":46.2,"2018":47.7,"2014":42.0},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":62.1},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ag-GA","st":"GA","state":"Georgia","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Tanya Miller","gop":"Brian Strickland","others":[],"incumbent":"Chris Carr","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Carr ran for governor. Strickland beat Bill Cowsert, Miller beat Bob Trammell in May primaries. No general polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_Attorney_General_election","https://www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/news/georgia-2026-midterm-election-sample-ballot-candidates-resolutions/"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-4.56,"prob":0.1637,"p10":-10.53,"p90":1.41},"votes":{"dem":2418239,"rep":2205296,"other":46702,"total":4670238},"polls":[{"pollster":"State Navigate","end":"2026-10-27","n":679,"kind":"LV","D":49,"R":46,"U":5,"margin":-3,"adjMargin":-3.0,"lean":null,"age":7,"url":"https://articles.statenavigate.com/ga/keisha-lance-bottoms-holds-narrow-lead-in-georgia-governor-race/"},{"pollster":"Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association (D)","end":"2026-10-15","n":800,"kind":"LV","D":45,"R":43,"U":12,"margin":-2,"adjMargin":-0.6,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":1.4},"age":19,"url":"https://static.washingtonsun.com/33/85/74b6a49f45b9b658bba4b65d6411/daga-state-polling-memo-f10-23-26.pdf"},{"pollster":"University of Georgia SPIA for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution","end":"2026-10-15","n":1000,"kind":"LV","D":44,"R":44,"U":11,"margin":0,"adjMargin":0.0,"lean":null,"age":19,"url":"https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/georgias-downballot-races-are-deadlocked/"}],"pollWeight":0.628,"pollAvg":-1.12,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.24,"F":0.12,"G":0.08,"H":0.4,"P":0.16},"topOfTicket":-8.4,"blend":-7.32,"withCandidates":-10.47,"final":-4.61,"history":-5.73,"candidateTerm":0.08,"topRaces":["sen-GA","gov-GA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Georgia senate, Georgia governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":46.9,"2018":48.6,"2014":42.7},"primary":{"dem_primary_votes":1041373,"rep_primary_votes":849992,"dem_share":55.1,"dem_nominee_share":84.6,"rep_nominee_share":71.6},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ins-GA","st":"GA","state":"Georgia","office":"insurance-commissioner","officeLabel":"Commissioner of Insurance","dem":"Keisha Sean Waites","gop":"John King","others":[],"incumbent":"John King","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"John King, who dropped a 2025 U.S. Senate bid, was unopposed for renomination. Keisha Sean Waites beat DeAndre Mathis 58.7 to 41.3 in the June 16 Democratic runoff. No Libertarian on the ballot; no public polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_Insurance_Commissioner_election","https://www.wabe.org/?p=968588"],"seat":null,"slug":"insurance-commissioner","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-3.54,"prob":0.2684,"p10":-10.9,"p90":3.81},"votes":{"dem":2394534,"rep":2229001,"other":46702,"total":4670238},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-8.4,"blend":-6.33,"withCandidates":-3.58,"final":-3.58,"history":-5.09,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-GA","gov-GA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Georgia senate, Georgia governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":46.5,"2018":48.4,"2014":42.3},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"labor-GA","st":"GA","state":"Georgia","office":"labor-commissioner","officeLabel":"Commissioner of Labor","dem":"Nikki Porcher","gop":"B\u00e1rbara Rivera Holmes","others":[],"incumbent":"B\u00e1rbara Rivera Holmes","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"B\u00e1rbara Rivera Holmes was appointed by Gov. Kemp in 2025 and was unopposed in the GOP primary. Nikki Porcher beat Michelle Sanchez 61.7 to 38.3 in the June 16 Democratic runoff. No Libertarian on the ballot; no polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_Labor_Commissioner_election","https://www.wabe.org/?p=968588"],"seat":null,"slug":"labor-commissioner","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-3.54,"prob":0.2684,"p10":-10.9,"p90":3.81},"votes":{"dem":2394534,"rep":2229001,"other":46702,"total":4670238},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-8.4,"blend":-6.33,"withCandidates":-3.58,"final":-3.58,"history":-5.09,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-GA","gov-GA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Georgia senate, Georgia governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":46.5,"2018":48.4,"2014":42.3},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"lg-GA","st":"GA","state":"Georgia","office":"lieutenant-governor","officeLabel":"Lieutenant governor","dem":"Josh McLaurin","gop":"Greg Dolezal","others":[],"incumbent":"Burt Jones","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Jones ran for governor and lost. Runoffs: Dolezal beat John F. Kennedy 54.2 to 45.8, and McLaurin beat Nabilah Parkes 54.9 to 45.1. State Navigate numbers include leaners; without leaners, nearly one in five were undecided. The Wikipedia table has a second row with 43 D, 39 R and 18 undecided but no pollster, date or n. It may be State Navigate's no-leaner ballot, so it is not recorded. There is no Libertarian on the ballot.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election","https://statenavigate.org/ga/state-navigate-poll-shows-lance-bottoms-with-7-point-lead-in-georgia-governor-race","https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/07/new-poll-shows-promise-and-peril-for-democrats-in-key-georgia-races/"],"seat":null,"slug":"lieutenant-governor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-3.27,"prob":0.2394,"p10":-9.19,"p90":2.65},"votes":{"dem":2388166,"rep":2235370,"other":46702,"total":4670238},"polls":[{"pollster":"State Navigate","end":"2026-10-27","n":679,"kind":"LV","D":49,"R":45,"U":6,"margin":-4,"adjMargin":-4.0,"lean":null,"age":7,"url":"https://articles.statenavigate.com/ga/keisha-lance-bottoms-holds-narrow-lead-in-georgia-governor-race/"},{"pollster":"Quantus Insights","end":"2026-10-17","n":755,"kind":"LV","D":46.6,"R":47.3,"U":6.1,"margin":0.7,"adjMargin":0.7,"lean":null,"age":17,"url":"https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2026/10/19/new-georgia-poll-ossoff-leads-by-nearly-7-jackson-dolezal-cling-narrow-edges/"},{"pollster":"University of Georgia SPIA for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution","end":"2026-10-15","n":1000,"kind":"LV","D":42,"R":39,"U":17,"margin":-3,"adjMargin":-3.0,"lean":null,"age":19,"url":"https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/georgias-downballot-races-are-deadlocked/"},{"pollster":"State Navigate","end":"2026-07-13","n":448,"kind":"LV","D":48,"R":44,"U":9,"margin":-4,"adjMargin":-4.0,"lean":null,"age":113,"url":"https://statenavigate.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/GA_Statewide_July_StateNav_Briefing_PartyID-1.pdf"}],"pollWeight":0.649,"pollAvg":-1.24,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.24,"F":0.12,"G":0.08,"H":0.4,"P":0.16},"topOfTicket":-8.4,"blend":-6.95,"withCandidates":-7.11,"final":-3.3,"history":-5.71,"candidateTerm":0.004,"topRaces":["sen-GA","gov-GA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Georgia senate, Georgia governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":47.0,"2018":48.4,"2014":42.2},"primary":{"dem_primary_votes":1030951,"rep_primary_votes":889130,"dem_share":53.7,"dem_nominee_share":54.9,"rep_nominee_share":54.2},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"psc-GA-district-3","st":"GA","state":"Georgia","office":"public-service-commission","officeLabel":"Public Service Commission, District 3","dem":"Peter Hubbard","gop":"Fitz Johnson","others":[],"incumbent":"Peter Hubbard","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Elected statewide with a district residency rule. Hubbard flipped this seat in Nov 2025, beating Fitz Johnson for a one-year term ending Dec 31, 2026; Johnson won a narrow 50.2 to 49.8 GOP primary over Brandon Martin for a rematch. The other Nov 2025 race was District 2, won by Democrat Alicia Johnson over Tim Echols for a term through 2030, so it is not up.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_Public_Service_Commission_election","https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/georgia-public-service-commission-candidates-4-candidates-ballot","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/10/partisan-control-of-georgia-public-service-commission-at-stake-in-november-election/","https://guides.vote/?p=5621","https://www.axios.com/local/atlanta/2025/11/05/georgia-public-service-commission-election-results","https://www.wabe.org/two-of-three-delayed-georgia-public-service-commission-elections-scheduled-for-november/"],"seat":"District 3","slug":"public-service-commission-district-3","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-8.74,"prob":0.0617,"p10":-16.02,"p90":-1.47},"votes":{"dem":2515911,"rep":2107624,"other":46702,"total":4670238},"polls":[{"pollster":"Quantus Insights","end":"2026-08-01","n":815,"kind":"LV","D":39,"R":38,"U":20,"margin":-1,"adjMargin":-1.0,"lean":null,"age":94,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_Public_Service_Commission_election"}],"pollWeight":0.036,"pollAvg":-1.97,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-8.4,"blend":-6.33,"withCandidates":-9.09,"final":-8.83,"history":-5.09,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-GA","gov-GA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Georgia senate, Georgia governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":46.5,"2018":48.4,"2014":42.3},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"psc-GA-district-5","st":"GA","state":"Georgia","office":"public-service-commission","officeLabel":"Public Service Commission, District 5","dem":"Shelia Edwards","gop":"Josh Tolbert","others":[{"name":"Thomas Blooming","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Tricia Pridemore","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat after Pridemore ran for U.S. House; a Democratic win flips the 3 to 2 Republican commission. Tolbert won the June 16 GOP runoff 59.8 to 40.2 over Bobby Mehan, and Edwards won the Democratic primary outright with 55.7%. Libertarian Thomas Blooming is listed by Ballotpedia News, and a Dec 1 runoff follows if no one wins a majority.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_Public_Service_Commission_election","https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/georgia-public-service-commission-candidates-4-candidates-ballot","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/08/10/partisan-control-of-georgia-public-service-commission-at-stake-in-november-election/","https://www.wabe.org/two-of-three-delayed-georgia-public-service-commission-elections-scheduled-for-november/"],"seat":"District 5","slug":"public-service-commission-district-5","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-6.05,"prob":0.1431,"p10":-13.33,"p90":1.22},"votes":{"dem":2420163,"rep":2137511,"other":112563,"total":4670238},"polls":[{"pollster":"Quantus Insights","end":"2026-08-01","n":815,"kind":"LV","D":40,"R":38,"U":20,"margin":-2,"adjMargin":-2.0,"lean":null,"age":94,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_Public_Service_Commission_election"}],"pollWeight":0.036,"pollAvg":-2.69,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-8.4,"blend":-6.33,"withCandidates":-6.33,"final":-6.2,"history":-5.09,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-GA","gov-GA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Georgia senate, Georgia governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":46.5,"2018":48.4,"2014":42.3},"primary":null,"otherShare":2.4},{"id":"sos-GA","st":"GA","state":"Georgia","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Penny Brown Reynolds","gop":"Tim Fleming","others":[],"incumbent":"Brad Raffensperger","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Raffensperger ran for governor and lost. 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Harris beat Walter Adamczyk 53.0 to 47.0 in the GOP primary. 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No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Illinois_State_Treasurer_election","https://cms5.revize.com/revize/dupage/Election/Documents/Candidate%20Information/WebsiteListingsByElection/2026GE/2026GE%20Candidate%20Listing.pdf"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-23.14,"prob":0.0005,"p10":-32.16,"p90":-14.12},"votes":{"dem":2787163,"rep":1711068,"other":152171,"total":4650403},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-22.1,"blend":-21.03,"withCandidates":-23.92,"final":-23.92,"history":-18.09,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-IL","gov-IL"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Illinois senate, Illinois governor","ticketGap":4.58},"history":{"2022":49.7,"2018":60.9,"2014":55.0},"primary":null,"otherShare":3.3},{"id":"aud-IN","st":"IN","state":"Indiana","office":"auditor","officeLabel":"State Comptroller","dem":"Jessica Bailey","gop":"Elise Nieshalla","others":[{"name":"John Schick","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Elise Nieshalla","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Indiana renamed its Auditor of State to State Comptroller in 2024, and the ballot list reads 'State Comptroller (Auditor of State)'. It is included as the state's auditor; drop it if comptroller titles should be excluded. Nieshalla was appointed in 2023. Nominees were chosen at party conventions. No polls found. Oct 24 2026: this is the only Indiana comptroller race on the site; the duplicate comptroller entry in research_new_offices.json was removed.","sources":["https://www.in.gov/counties/white/files/general-election-2026/Candidate_List_GE26.pdf","https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/?p=27385"],"seat":null,"slug":"auditor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":8.57,"prob":0.9122,"p10":0.46,"p90":16.68},"votes":{"dem":1018939,"rep":1221643,"other":124909,"total":2365493},"polls":[{"pollster":"Quantus Insights","end":"2026-10-21","n":757,"kind":"LV","D":36.5,"R":42.1,"U":14.3,"margin":5.6,"adjMargin":5.6,"lean":null,"age":13,"url":"https://quantusinsights.org/polling"},{"pollster":"Bellwether Research for Free Press Indiana","end":"2026-10-11","n":839,"kind":"LV","D":39,"R":36,"U":21,"margin":-3,"adjMargin":-3.0,"lean":null,"age":23,"url":"https://www.wishtv.com/news/allindianapolitics/all-indiana-politics-panel-breaks-down-secretary-of-state-poll-numbers/"}],"pollWeight":0.388,"pollAvg":6.18,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":6.53,"blend":7.66,"withCandidates":10.85,"final":9.05,"history":9.44,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":[],"anchor":"no 2026 Senate or governor race: 2024 vote moved to the national environment and set to the published House vote","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":38.8,"2018":42.2,"2014":38.4},"primary":null,"otherShare":5.3},{"id":"sos-IN","st":"IN","state":"Indiana","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Beau Bayh","gop":"Max Engling","others":[{"name":"Greg Ballard","party":"Independent (Lincoln Party line)"},{"name":"Lauri Shillings","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Diego Morales","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Indiana nominates at party conventions, so there are no primary files. Morales sought re-election but lost renomination at the GOP convention to Engling; incumbent_running is false because he is not on the ballot. Ballard is a former Republican Indianapolis mayor. Other means Ballard plus Shillings: 5+6 in Tarrance and 5+5 in Schoen Cooperman. Hoosier Leadership for America is tied to Sen. Jim Banks. Indy Politics also reported an HLFA tie with no numbers. Minor candidates are Harrison Jacobo (Socialist) and a write-in.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Indiana_Secretary_of_State_election","https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/430530"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":0.87,"prob":0.5584,"p10":-6.73,"p90":8.48},"votes":{"dem":1106311,"rep":1126934,"other":132246,"total":2365493},"polls":[{"pollster":"Quantus Insights","end":"2026-10-21","n":757,"kind":"LV","D":41.6,"R":38.6,"U":12.7,"margin":-3.0,"adjMargin":-3.0,"lean":null,"age":13,"url":"https://quantusinsights.org/polling"},{"pollster":"Bellwether Research for Free Press Indiana","end":"2026-10-11","n":839,"kind":"LV","D":43,"R":35,"U":11,"margin":-8,"adjMargin":-8.0,"lean":null,"age":23,"url":"https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/10/16/poll-shows-democrat-beau-bayh-with-advantages-in-final-weeks-of-indiana-campaign"},{"pollster":"The Tarrance Group (R) for Hoosier Leadership for America (R)","end":"2026-09-30","n":600,"kind":"LV","D":37,"R":38,"U":14,"margin":1,"adjMargin":-2.7,"lean":{"dir":"R","pts":3.7},"age":34,"url":"https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/430530"},{"pollster":"Schoen Cooperman Research (D) for Bayh campaign (D)","end":"2026-09-03","n":605,"kind":"LV","D":42,"R":36,"U":12,"margin":-6,"adjMargin":-4.4,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":1.6},"age":61,"url":"https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/10/02/polls-circulate-showing-tight-secretary-of-state-race-plus-bo-duke-actor-weighs-in/"}],"pollWeight":0.57,"pollAvg":-3.1,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":6.53,"blend":6.25,"withCandidates":6.25,"final":0.92,"history":6.38,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":[],"anchor":"no 2026 Senate or governor race: 2024 vote moved to the national environment and set to the published House vote","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":41.2,"2018":41.9,"2014":40.0},"primary":null,"otherShare":5.6},{"id":"treas-IN","st":"IN","state":"Indiana","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Coumba Kebe","gop":"Daniel Elliott","others":[],"incumbent":"Daniel Elliott","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Nominated by party conventions, not primaries. No Libertarian on the county candidate list. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Indiana_State_Treasurer_election","https://www.in.gov/counties/white/files/general-election-2026/Candidate_List_GE26.pdf"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":9.86,"prob":0.9404,"p10":1.75,"p90":17.96},"votes":{"dem":1047234,"rep":1280365,"other":37893,"total":2365493},"polls":[{"pollster":"Quantus Insights","end":"2026-10-21","n":757,"kind":"LV","D":36.3,"R":44.4,"U":13.9,"margin":8.1,"adjMargin":8.1,"lean":null,"age":13,"url":"https://quantusinsights.org/polling"},{"pollster":"Bellwether Research for Free Press Indiana","end":"2026-10-11","n":839,"kind":"LV","D":38,"R":43,"U":19,"margin":5,"adjMargin":5.0,"lean":null,"age":23,"url":"https://www.wishtv.com/news/allindianapolitics/all-indiana-politics-panel-breaks-down-secretary-of-state-poll-numbers/"}],"pollWeight":0.388,"pollAvg":9.08,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":6.53,"blend":7.41,"withCandidates":10.61,"final":10.02,"history":8.91,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":[],"anchor":"no 2026 Senate or governor race: 2024 vote moved to the national environment and set to the published House vote","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":39.5,"2018":41.6,"2014":39.0},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.6},{"id":"ag-KS","st":"KS","state":"Kansas","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Chris Mann","gop":"Kris Kobach","others":[],"incumbent":"Kris Kobach","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Both unopposed Aug 4. Only pre-June polls exist: Pulse Decision Science (R) Jan 2026 Kobach 47-37; GSG (D) Nov 2025 46-44.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kansas_Attorney_General_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-0.06,"prob":0.4961,"p10":-8.13,"p90":8.01},"votes":{"dem":568521,"rep":567821,"other":11478,"total":1147820},"polls":[{"pollster":"Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association (D)","end":"2026-10-15","n":800,"kind":"LV","D":48,"R":44,"U":8,"margin":-4,"adjMargin":-2.6,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":1.4},"age":19,"url":"https://static.washingtonsun.com/33/85/74b6a49f45b9b658bba4b65d6411/daga-state-polling-memo-f10-23-26.pdf"},{"pollster":"Global Strategy Group (D) for Democratic Attorneys General Association (D)","end":"2026-10-01","n":null,"kind":"","D":47,"R":46,"U":0,"margin":-1,"adjMargin":0.4,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":1.4},"age":33,"url":"https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/democrats-release-poll-results-showing-mann-slightly-leading-kobach/"}],"pollWeight":0.287,"pollAvg":-1.64,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-4.48,"blend":-2.57,"withCandidates":0.57,"final":-0.06,"history":-8.15,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-KS","gov-KS"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Kansas senate, Kansas governor","ticketGap":8.98},"history":{"2022":46.7},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ins-KS","st":"KS","state":"Kansas","office":"insurance-commissioner","officeLabel":"Commissioner of Insurance","dem":"Dinah Sykes","gop":"Dan Hawkins","others":[{"name":"Ric Koehn","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Vicki Schmidt","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat because Vicki Schmidt ran for governor and lost the Aug 4 GOP primary. State Sen. Dinah Sykes and House Speaker Dan Hawkins were both unopposed in their primaries. No polls found.","sources":["https://kansasreflector.com/2026/08/04/kansas-democrats-republicans-firm-up-teams-for-statewide-office-contests/"],"seat":null,"slug":"insurance-commissioner","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-0.26,"prob":0.4851,"p10":-9.08,"p90":8.57},"votes":{"dem":552670,"rep":549716,"other":45433,"total":1147820},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-4.48,"blend":-0.27,"withCandidates":-0.27,"final":-0.27,"history":-3.09,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-KS","gov-KS"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Kansas senate, Kansas governor","ticketGap":8.98},"history":{"2022":44.1},"primary":null,"otherShare":4.0},{"id":"sos-KS","st":"KS","state":"Kansas","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Jennifer Day","gop":"Pat Proctor","others":[{"name":"Scott E. 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Its dates, n and RV come from Wikipedia.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kansas_Secretary_of_State_election","https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/internal-poll-shows-tight-race-for-secretary-of-state-high-undecideds/"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":1.7,"prob":0.5987,"p10":-7.01,"p90":10.4},"votes":{"dem":539509,"rep":558986,"other":49324,"total":1147820},"polls":[{"pollster":"Public Policy Polling (D) for Jennifer Day campaign (D)","end":"2026-09-01","n":542,"kind":"RV","D":37,"R":39,"U":24,"margin":2,"adjMargin":2.8,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":0.8},"age":63,"url":"https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28606454-ks-sos-ppp-for-jennifer-day-sept-2026/"}],"pollWeight":0.047,"pollAvg":3.01,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-4.48,"blend":1.71,"withCandidates":1.71,"final":1.77,"history":1.21,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-KS","gov-KS"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Kansas senate, Kansas governor","ticketGap":8.98},"history":{"2022":42.0},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":85.3},"otherShare":4.3},{"id":"treas-KS","st":"KS","state":"Kansas","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Juan Luengo","gop":"Steven Johnson","others":[{"name":"Eric Lund","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Steven Johnson","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Both primaries were unopposed. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kansas_State_Treasurer_election","https://politics1.com/KS.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":2.99,"prob":0.6678,"p10":-5.84,"p90":11.82},"votes":{"dem":521876,"rep":556184,"other":69760,"total":1147820},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-4.48,"blend":0.05,"withCandidates":3.18,"final":3.18,"history":-2.31,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-KS","gov-KS"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Kansas senate, Kansas governor","ticketGap":8.98},"history":{"2022":43.8},"primary":null,"otherShare":6.1},{"id":"ag-MA","st":"MA","state":"Massachusetts","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Andrea Campbell","gop":"Michael Walsh","others":[],"incumbent":"Andrea Campbell","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Walsh kept on ballot by SJC despite signature fraud allegations. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Massachusetts_Attorney_General_election","https://www.stateagreport.com/states/massachusetts/","https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/07/13/metro/sjc-walsh-gop-signature-fraud/"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-40.17,"prob":0.0,"p10":-47.99,"p90":-32.36},"votes":{"dem":1988796,"rep":840636,"other":28580,"total":2858014},"polls":[{"pollster":"UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"kind":"RV","D":55,"R":31,"U":11,"margin":-24,"adjMargin":-24.0,"lean":null,"age":22,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll"}],"pollWeight":0.142,"pollAvg":-27.16,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-30.09,"blend":-39.84,"withCandidates":-42.65,"final":-40.58,"history":-43.74,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-MA","gov-MA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Massachusetts senate, Massachusetts governor","ticketGap":-8.98},"history":{"2022":65.5,"2018":70.4,"2014":62.4},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"aud-MA","st":"MA","state":"Massachusetts","office":"auditor","officeLabel":"Auditor","dem":"Diana DiZoglio","gop":null,"others":[{"name":"Al Ozonoff","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Diana DiZoglio","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"No Republican filed. Libertarian Al Ozonoff appears on politics1 and The Ballot Brief, but not on Wikipedia; unverified on the official ballot. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Massachusetts_State_Auditor_election","https://politics1.com/MA.htm","https://theballotbrief.com/state/massachusetts"],"seat":null,"slug":"auditor","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"D","est":{"margin":-100.0,"prob":0.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"sos-MA","st":"MA","state":"Massachusetts","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"William F. Galvin","gop":"Anne Brensley","others":[],"incumbent":"William F. Galvin","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Office is Secretary of the Commonwealth. Galvin is seeking a ninth term. Brensley qualified through write-in votes in the September 1 Republican primary, and the official sample ballot lists Galvin (D) and Anne R. Brensley (R). No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Massachusetts_Secretary_of_the_Commonwealth_election","https://www.sec.state.ma.us/WhereDoIVoteMA/ShowBallot/ViewMyBallot/BallotOut/ST/167/0/1","https://www.statehousenews.com/news/politics/elections/endorsed-for-lg-brensley-says-shes-on-nov-ballot-as-state-secretary-candidate/article_c5838fc9-baf5-403b-a7d2-81c5c851ee7d.html"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-42.52,"prob":0.0,"p10":-50.34,"p90":-34.71},"votes":{"dem":1987235,"rep":771874,"other":98903,"total":2858014},"polls":[{"pollster":"UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"kind":"RV","D":59,"R":26,"U":11,"margin":-33,"adjMargin":-33.0,"lean":null,"age":22,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll"}],"pollWeight":0.142,"pollAvg":-36.96,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-30.09,"blend":-42.43,"withCandidates":-45.17,"final":-44.05,"history":-48.91,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-MA","gov-MA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Massachusetts senate, Massachusetts governor","ticketGap":-8.98},"history":{"2022":68.9,"2018":72.2,"2014":66.6},"primary":null,"otherShare":3.5},{"id":"treas-MA","st":"MA","state":"Massachusetts","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Deb Goldberg","gop":"Elizabeth Dionne","others":[],"incumbent":"Deb Goldberg","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Office is Treasurer and Receiver-General. Both primaries were unopposed. The Forward Party endorsed Dionne but has no separate ballot line found. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Massachusetts_Treasurer_and_Receiver-General_election","https://politics1.com/MA.htm","https://theballotbrief.com/state/massachusetts"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-43.43,"prob":0.0,"p10":-51.24,"p90":-35.61},"votes":{"dem":2013408,"rep":772269,"other":72335,"total":2858014},"polls":[{"pollster":"UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov","end":"2026-10-12","n":800,"kind":"RV","D":52,"R":27,"U":18,"margin":-25,"adjMargin":-25.0,"lean":null,"age":22,"url":"https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll"}],"pollWeight":0.142,"pollAvg":-30.11,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-30.09,"blend":-44.05,"withCandidates":-46.75,"final":-44.55,"history":-52.16,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-MA","gov-MA"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Massachusetts senate, Massachusetts governor","ticketGap":-8.98},"history":{"2022":72.7,"2018":70.5,"2014":60.3},"primary":null,"otherShare":2.5},{"id":"ag-MD","st":"MD","state":"Maryland","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Anthony Brown","gop":"James Rutledge III","others":[],"incumbent":"Anthony Brown","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Both unopposed in primaries. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Maryland_Attorney_General_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-43.65,"prob":0.0,"p10":-50.93,"p90":-36.38},"votes":{"dem":1784829,"rep":691436,"other":28442,"total":2504709},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-34.05,"blend":-41.8,"withCandidates":-44.15,"final":-44.15,"history":-39.99,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-MD"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Maryland governor","ticketGap":-8.98},"history":{"2022":65.0,"2018":64.9,"2014":57.8},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.1},{"id":"comp-MD","st":"MD","state":"Maryland","office":"comptroller","officeLabel":"Comptroller","dem":"Brooke Lierman","gop":"Sonya Dunn","others":[],"incumbent":"Brooke Lierman","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Incumbent Democrat Lierman seeks a second term against Republican businesswoman Dunn; both were unopposed in the June primaries and the state candidate list shows no other general election candidates. No general election polls found.","sources":["https://www.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2026/general_candidates/2026_GG_statewide_candidatelist.html","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Maryland_Comptroller_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"comptroller","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-43.65,"prob":0.0,"p10":-50.93,"p90":-36.38},"votes":{"dem":1784829,"rep":691436,"other":28442,"total":2504709},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-34.05,"blend":-41.8,"withCandidates":-44.15,"final":-44.15,"history":-39.99,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-MD"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Maryland governor","ticketGap":-8.98},"history":{"2022":65.0,"2018":64.9,"2014":57.8},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.1},{"id":"ag-MI","st":"MI","state":"Michigan","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Eli Savit","gop":"Doug Lloyd","others":[{"name":"Jason Dye","party":"Libertarian"},{"name":"Jeff Polonowski","party":"Green"},{"name":"John Ludtke Jr.","party":"U.S. Taxpayers"},{"name":"Doug Dern","party":"Natural Law"}],"incumbent":"Dana Nessel","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Nessel term-limited. Nominees chosen by party conventions, not primaries. Third-party list from Wikipedia.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Michigan_Attorney_General_election","https://www.myupnow.com/matchups-set-michigan-parties-finalize-nominees-for-attorney-general-secretary-of-state/article_7cc767e0-e8d3-4d2b-b638-c1b65d580fe4.html"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-7.62,"prob":0.0571,"p10":-13.79,"p90":-1.44},"votes":{"dem":2528592,"rep":2150714,"other":282926,"total":4962234},"polls":[{"pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications for Michigan TV stations incl. 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No polls found.","sources":["https://www.kentcountymi.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8870/November-3-2026-Candidates-and-Proposals-PDF","https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/30/michigan-democrats-finalize-nominations-continue-calls-for-unity-heading-into-november/","https://press.mirs.news/00b9eed6.pdf","https://www.wlns.com/capital-rundown/michigan-republicans-hold-nominating-convention/amp/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Michigan_State_University_Board_of_Trustees_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"education-board-michigan-state-university-board-of-trustees","seatsUp":2,"est":{"margin":-19.08,"prob":0.0007,"p10":-26.76,"p90":-11.41},"votes":{"dem":2831708,"rep":1884759,"other":245765,"total":4962234},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-12.0,"blend":-16.92,"withCandidates":-20.08,"final":-20.08,"history":-22.04,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-MI","gov-MI"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Michigan senate, Michigan governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":57.1,"2018":53.0,"2014":45.2},"primary":null,"otherShare":5.0},{"id":"edb-MI-state-board-of-education","st":"MI","state":"Michigan","office":"education-board","officeLabel":"State Board of Education","dem":"Judith Pritchett and Tiffany Tilley","gop":"Terence Collins and Bree Moeggenberg","others":[{"name":"Charles Essner","party":"Libertarian"},{"name":"William Mohr II","party":"U.S. Taxpayers"},{"name":"Christine C. 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No polls found.","sources":["https://www.kentcountymi.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8870/November-3-2026-Candidates-and-Proposals-PDF","https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/30/michigan-democrats-finalize-nominations-continue-calls-for-unity-heading-into-november/","https://press.mirs.news/00b9eed6.pdf","https://www.wlns.com/capital-rundown/michigan-republicans-hold-nominating-convention/amp/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Michigan_elections"],"seat":null,"slug":"education-board-state-board-of-education","seatsUp":2,"est":{"margin":-19.08,"prob":0.0007,"p10":-26.76,"p90":-11.41},"votes":{"dem":2831708,"rep":1884759,"other":245765,"total":4962234},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-12.0,"blend":-16.92,"withCandidates":-20.08,"final":-20.08,"history":-22.04,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-MI","gov-MI"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Michigan senate, Michigan governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":57.1,"2018":53.0,"2014":45.2},"primary":null,"otherShare":5.0},{"id":"edb-MI-university-of-michigan-board-of-regents","st":"MI","state":"Michigan","office":"education-board","officeLabel":"University of Michigan Board of Regents","dem":"Paul Brown and Amir Makled","gop":"Lena Epstein and Michael Schostak","others":[{"name":"Andrew Chadderdon","party":"Libertarian"},{"name":"Kyle Maas","party":"U.S. Taxpayers"}],"incumbent":"Paul Brown; Jordan Acker","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Regent Paul Brown is running again, but Regent Jordan Acker lost the Democratic nomination to Dearborn attorney Amir Makled at the state convention. Vote for two. No polls found.","sources":["https://www.kentcountymi.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8870/November-3-2026-Candidates-and-Proposals-PDF","https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/30/michigan-democrats-finalize-nominations-continue-calls-for-unity-heading-into-november/","https://press.mirs.news/00b9eed6.pdf","https://www.wlns.com/capital-rundown/michigan-republicans-hold-nominating-convention/amp/","https://www.michiganpublic.org/politics-government/2026-10-09/meet-the-candidates-running-for-the-u-m-board-of-regents"],"seat":null,"slug":"education-board-university-of-michigan-board-of-regents","seatsUp":2,"est":{"margin":-16.09,"prob":0.0036,"p10":-23.76,"p90":-8.41},"votes":{"dem":2757342,"rep":1959126,"other":245765,"total":4962234},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-12.0,"blend":-16.92,"withCandidates":-16.92,"final":-16.92,"history":-22.04,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-MI","gov-MI"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Michigan senate, Michigan governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":57.1,"2018":53.0,"2014":45.2},"primary":null,"otherShare":5.0},{"id":"edb-MI-wayne-state-university-board-of-governors","st":"MI","state":"Michigan","office":"education-board","officeLabel":"Wayne State University Board of Governors","dem":"Shereef Akeel and Richard Mack","gop":"Andy Anuzis and Christa Murphy","others":[{"name":"Alex Avery","party":"Libertarian"},{"name":"Jami Van Alstine","party":"Libertarian"},{"name":"Jeff McDonald","party":"U.S. Taxpayers"},{"name":"Paul M. 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No polls found.","sources":["https://www.kentcountymi.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8870/November-3-2026-Candidates-and-Proposals-PDF","https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/30/michigan-democrats-finalize-nominations-continue-calls-for-unity-heading-into-november/","https://press.mirs.news/00b9eed6.pdf","https://www.wlns.com/capital-rundown/michigan-republicans-hold-nominating-convention/amp/","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Wayne_State_University_Board_of_Governors_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"education-board-wayne-state-university-board-of-governors","seatsUp":2,"est":{"margin":-16.09,"prob":0.0036,"p10":-23.76,"p90":-8.41},"votes":{"dem":2757342,"rep":1959126,"other":245765,"total":4962234},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-12.0,"blend":-16.92,"withCandidates":-16.92,"final":-16.92,"history":-22.04,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-MI","gov-MI"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Michigan senate, Michigan governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":57.1,"2018":53.0,"2014":45.2},"primary":null,"otherShare":5.0},{"id":"sos-MI","st":"MI","state":"Michigan","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Garlin Gilchrist","gop":"Anthony Forlini","others":[{"name":"Christine Sloan","party":"Libertarian"},{"name":"Scott Aughney","party":"Constitution/US Taxpayers"},{"name":"Eric Borregard","party":"Green"}],"incumbent":"Jocelyn Benson","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Benson is term-limited and running for governor. Nominees were chosen at the April party conventions, so there are no primary files. The Detroit News article was blocked to fetching; its numbers come from Wikipedia. WDIV/Detroit News sponsorship and the field dates are confirmed by ClickOnDetroit for the same Glengariff wave. Bridge Michigan cited a later Mitchell poll at 41 to 36 with 18 undecided, but gave no dates or n. It may duplicate another poll; check it before use.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Michigan_Secretary_of_State_election","https://www.michiganpublic.org/politics-government/2026-10-09/secretary-of-state-candidates-square-off-over-election-integrity-at-debate","https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2026/09/08/poll-which-us-senate-candidates-are-most-favorable-to-michigan-voters/"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-10.09,"prob":0.0181,"p10":-16.27,"p90":-3.91},"votes":{"dem":2620988,"rep":2120254,"other":220991,"total":4962234},"polls":[{"pollster":"Mitchell Research & Communications for Michigan TV stations incl. 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Schutz is GOP-endorsed nominee.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minnesota_Attorney_General_election","https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/09/28/keith-ellison-and-ron-schultz-focus-on-fraud-trump-in-minnesota-attorney-general-race"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-7.72,"prob":0.06,"p10":-14.08,"p90":-1.35},"votes":{"dem":1439420,"rep":1223730,"other":131083,"total":2794235},"polls":[{"pollster":"State Navigate","end":"2026-10-28","n":806,"kind":"LV","D":52,"R":44,"U":4,"margin":-8,"adjMargin":-8.0,"lean":null,"age":6,"url":"https://articles.statenavigate.com/mn/new-minnesota-governor-poll-shows-amy-klobuchars-crossover-appeal-fading/"},{"pollster":"SurveyUSA for KSTP","end":"2026-10-28","n":714,"kind":"LV","D":49,"R":41,"U":10,"margin":-8,"adjMargin":-8.0,"lean":null,"age":6,"url":"https://kstp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/PollMargins.pdf"},{"pollster":"Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association (D)","end":"2026-10-15","n":800,"kind":"LV","D":48,"R":48,"U":4,"margin":0,"adjMargin":1.4,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":1.4},"age":19,"url":"https://static.washingtonsun.com/33/85/74b6a49f45b9b658bba4b65d6411/daga-state-polling-memo-f10-23-26.pdf"},{"pollster":"SurveyUSA for KSTP","end":"2026-10-12","n":718,"kind":"LV","D":45,"R":44,"U":11,"margin":-1,"adjMargin":-1.0,"lean":null,"age":22,"url":"https://kstp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Poll-Races.pdf"},{"pollster":"Mason-Dixon for Star Tribune / KARE 11 (Minnesota Poll)","end":"2026-10-07","n":null,"kind":"LV","D":48,"R":40,"U":12,"margin":-8,"adjMargin":-8.0,"lean":null,"age":27,"url":"https://www.demlist.com/demdaily-the-muscle-of-the-resistance-the-ag-elections/"},{"pollster":"SurveyUSA for KSTP","end":"2026-09-14","n":654,"kind":"LV","D":43,"R":45,"U":12,"margin":2,"adjMargin":2.0,"lean":null,"age":50,"url":"https://www.newsweek.com/republican-leads-minnesota-poll-democrats-seat-decades-12454517"},{"pollster":"SurveyUSA for KSTP","end":"2026-08-17","n":661,"kind":"LV","D":43,"R":43,"U":15,"margin":0,"adjMargin":0.0,"lean":null,"age":78,"url":"https://kstp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Election-Poll-8-19-26.pdf"},{"pollster":"SurveyUSA for KSTP","end":"2026-08-04","n":1435,"kind":"LV","D":44,"R":36,"U":19,"margin":-8,"adjMargin":-8.0,"lean":null,"age":91,"url":"https://kstp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ElectionAugust.pdf"},{"pollster":"SurveyUSA for KSTP","end":"2026-07-20","n":1387,"kind":"LV","D":42,"R":38,"U":20,"margin":-4,"adjMargin":-4.0,"lean":null,"age":106,"url":"https://kstp.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/ElectionPoll.pdf"},{"pollster":"SurveyUSA for KSTP","end":"2026-06-16","n":1440,"kind":"LV","D":44,"R":37,"U":19,"margin":-7,"adjMargin":-7.0,"lean":null,"age":140,"url":"https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-lindell-leads-gop-governor-race-tafoya-craig-up-in-senate-primaries/"}],"pollWeight":0.65,"pollAvg":-3.26,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-13.26,"blend":-13.9,"withCandidates":-16.97,"final":-8.1,"history":-14.18,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-MN","gov-MN"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Minnesota senate, Minnesota governor","ticketGap":3.57},"history":{"2022":51.1,"2018":52.7,"2014":56.1},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":84.7},"otherShare":4.7},{"id":"aud-MN","st":"MN","state":"Minnesota","office":"auditor","officeLabel":"Auditor","dem":"Zack Filipovich","gop":"Scott Jensen","others":[{"name":"Jay Reeves","party":"Forward-Independence"}],"incumbent":"Julie Blaha","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat: Blaha (DFL) retiring. 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Former Heinrich aide Juan de Jesus Sanchez III won the June 2 Democratic primary with 56.3 percent and Chaves County Commissioner Perry was unopposed for the Republicans; no third party candidates or polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_Mexico_Commissioner_of_Public_Lands_election","https://sourcenm.com/2026/09/24/new-mexico-election-2026-commissioner-of-public-lands/"],"seat":null,"slug":"land-commissioner","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-22.1,"prob":0.0005,"p10":-30.72,"p90":-13.47},"votes":{"dem":492318,"rep":312047,"other":11420,"total":815786},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-16.62,"blend":-22.41,"withCandidates":-22.41,"final":-22.41,"history":-24.62,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-NM","gov-NM"],"anchor":"top of ticket: New Mexico senate, New Mexico governor","ticketGap":-3.69},"history":{"2022":54.9,"2018":61.1,"2014":53.6},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.4},{"id":"sos-NM","st":"NM","state":"New Mexico","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Amanda L\u00f3pez Askin","gop":"Ramona Goolsby","others":[],"incumbent":"Maggie Toulouse Oliver","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Toulouse Oliver is term-limited and running for lieutenant governor on the joint ticket. L\u00f3pez Askin beat Katharine Clark 53.2 to 46.8. Goolsby was unopposed, and there is no Republican file. 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The Journal article gives only D/R shares, so O and U are unknown.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_Mexico_State_Treasurer_election","https://politics1.com/NM.htm","https://www.abqjournal.com/news/journal-poll-democrats-lead-in-five-statewide-races/3112749"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-23.97,"prob":0.0001,"p10":-32.46,"p90":-15.48},"votes":{"dem":501591,"rep":306037,"other":8157,"total":815786},"polls":[{"pollster":"Research & Polling Inc. for Albuquerque Journal","end":"2026-08-28","n":516,"kind":"LV","D":46,"R":37,"U":0,"margin":-9,"adjMargin":-9.0,"lean":null,"age":67,"url":"https://www.abqjournal.com/news/journal-poll-democrats-lead-in-five-statewide-races/3112749"}],"pollWeight":0.052,"pollAvg":-10.84,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-16.62,"blend":-21.95,"withCandidates":-24.93,"final":-24.21,"history":-23.57,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-NM","gov-NM"],"anchor":"top of ticket: New Mexico senate, New Mexico governor","ticketGap":-3.69},"history":{"2022":54.0,"2018":61.1,"2014":53.6},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ag-NV","st":"NV","state":"Nevada","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Nicole Cannizzaro","gop":"Adriana Guzm\u00e1n Fralick","others":[],"incumbent":"Aaron Ford","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Ford term-limited, ran for governor. Cannizzaro beat Zach Conine, Fralick beat Danny Tarkanian on Jun 9. No general polls with the nominees found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nevada_Attorney_General_election","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/09/14/nevada-attorney-generals-role-in-suing-the-federal-government-a-major-theme-in-election-between-nicole-cannizzaro-d-and-adriana-guzman-fralick-r/"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-6.96,"prob":0.1069,"p10":-14.13,"p90":0.22},"votes":{"dem":622624,"rep":536834,"other":73372,"total":1232832},"polls":[{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse)","end":"2026-10-28","n":487,"kind":"LV","D":50,"R":42,"U":6,"margin":-8,"adjMargin":-8.0,"lean":null,"age":6,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nevada-poll-of-record-lombardo-ford-deadlocked-at-47"},{"pollster":"Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association (D)","end":"2026-10-15","n":800,"kind":"LV","D":47,"R":43,"U":10,"margin":-4,"adjMargin":-2.6,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":1.4},"age":19,"url":"https://static.washingtonsun.com/33/85/74b6a49f45b9b658bba4b65d6411/daga-state-polling-memo-f10-23-26.pdf"},{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse)","end":"2026-09-26","n":708,"kind":"LV","D":45,"R":37,"U":0,"margin":-8,"adjMargin":-8.0,"lean":null,"age":38,"url":"https://nevadanewsandviews.com/poll-lombardo-leads-by-two-but-washoe-and-question-6-flash-warnings-for-nevada-republicans/"}],"pollWeight":0.503,"pollAvg":-5.05,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.24,"F":0.12,"G":0.08,"H":0.4,"P":0.16},"topOfTicket":-6.23,"blend":-9.83,"withCandidates":-9.77,"final":-7.4,"history":-14.53,"candidateTerm":-0.001,"topRaces":["gov-NV"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Nevada governor","ticketGap":-1.17},"history":{"2022":52.6,"2018":50.6,"2014":47.0},"primary":{"dem_primary_votes":177817,"rep_primary_votes":176324,"dem_share":50.2,"dem_nominee_share":63.3,"rep_nominee_share":63.5},"otherShare":6.0},{"id":"comp-NV","st":"NV","state":"Nevada","office":"comptroller","officeLabel":"State Controller","dem":"Michael MacDougall","gop":"Andy Matthews","others":[],"incumbent":"Andy Matthews","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Incumbent Republican Matthews faces teacher MacDougall, who won the June 9 Democratic primary with 45.3 percent; the Clark County general election notice lists only these two plus None of these candidates. No general election polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nevada_State_Controller_election","https://www.clarkcountynv.gov/adobe/assets/urn:aaid:aem:46b035ca-1d1f-4a0a-b748-a0f42dd45794/original/as/notice-general-election-26g.pdf"],"seat":null,"slug":"comptroller","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-5.97,"prob":0.1828,"p10":-14.42,"p90":2.48},"votes":{"dem":619888,"rep":546339,"other":66603,"total":1232832},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-6.23,"blend":-9.65,"withCandidates":-6.31,"final":-6.31,"history":-12.84,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["gov-NV"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Nevada governor","ticketGap":-1.17},"history":{"2022":51.1,"2018":51.0,"2014":44.4},"primary":null,"otherShare":5.4},{"id":"lg-NV","st":"NV","state":"Nevada","office":"lieutenant-governor","officeLabel":"Lieutenant governor","dem":"Sandra Jauregui","gop":"Stavros Anthony","others":[{"name":"Janine Hansen","party":"Independent American"}],"incumbent":"Stavros Anthony","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Jauregui won the Democratic primary with 59.8%. NPI's Sept 22-26 poll (708 LV) asked this race, but the published text says only that Democrats lead down-ballot by 1 to 8 points and Jauregui leads independents by 4. The full numbers are in an xlsx that could not be read, so no poll is recorded. NPI's March 10-13 poll had Jauregui 37 and Anthony 32 (RV), before the June cutoff. Cornelius Jones is also listed as a candidate.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nevada_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election","https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/lombardo-tries-to-escape-trump-s-orbit-up-2-over-ford"],"seat":null,"slug":"lieutenant-governor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-5.48,"prob":0.1797,"p10":-13.13,"p90":2.18},"votes":{"dem":604542,"rep":537040,"other":91249,"total":1232832},"polls":[{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse)","end":"2026-10-28","n":487,"kind":"LV","D":48,"R":41,"U":8,"margin":-7,"adjMargin":-7.0,"lean":null,"age":6,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nevada-poll-of-record-lombardo-ford-deadlocked-at-47"},{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse)","end":"2026-09-26","n":708,"kind":"LV","D":41,"R":38,"U":0,"margin":-3,"adjMargin":-3.0,"lean":null,"age":38,"url":"https://nevadanewsandviews.com/poll-lombardo-leads-by-two-but-washoe-and-question-6-flash-warnings-for-nevada-republicans/"}],"pollWeight":0.314,"pollAvg":-6.1,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-6.23,"blend":-9.17,"withCandidates":-5.83,"final":-5.91,"history":-11.83,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["gov-NV"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Nevada governor","ticketGap":-1.17},"history":{"2022":49.6,"2018":52.3,"2014":40.2},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":64.6},"otherShare":7.4},{"id":"sos-NV","st":"NV","state":"Nevada","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Cisco Aguilar","gop":"Jim Marchant","others":[{"name":"Brad Lee Barnhill","party":"Independent American"},{"name":"John T. 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No Democratic primary file.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nevada_Secretary_of_State_election","https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/lombardo-tries-to-escape-trump-s-orbit-up-2-over-ford"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-11.9,"prob":0.0232,"p10":-19.56,"p90":-4.25},"votes":{"dem":658584,"rep":511861,"other":62385,"total":1232832},"polls":[{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse)","end":"2026-10-28","n":487,"kind":"LV","D":51,"R":38,"U":6,"margin":-13,"adjMargin":-13.0,"lean":null,"age":6,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nevada-poll-of-record-lombardo-ford-deadlocked-at-47"},{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse)","end":"2026-09-26","n":708,"kind":"LV","D":44,"R":37,"U":12,"margin":-7,"adjMargin":-7.0,"lean":null,"age":38,"url":"https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/lombardo-tries-to-escape-trump-s-orbit-up-2-over-ford"}],"pollWeight":0.314,"pollAvg":-11.96,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-6.23,"blend":-9.47,"withCandidates":-12.8,"final":-12.54,"history":-12.47,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-NV"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Nevada governor","ticketGap":-1.17},"history":{"2022":51.1,"2018":50.3,"2014":46.1},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":35.1},"otherShare":5.1},{"id":"treas-NV","st":"NV","state":"Nevada","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Tya Mathis-Coleman","gop":"Drew Johnson","others":[],"incumbent":"Zach Conine","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat: Conine term-limited, ran for AG. Mathis-Coleman won the D primary 55%; Johnson edged Jeff Carter 45.5-43.9. A Noble Predictive poll from March 2026 tested hypothetical matchups before the primary and is excluded. No post-June polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nevada_State_Treasurer_election","https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/heres-where-nevadas-2026-treasurer-candidates-stand-on-the-issues"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-9.96,"prob":0.0588,"p10":-18.11,"p90":-1.8},"votes":{"dem":639589,"rep":516850,"other":76391,"total":1232832},"polls":[{"pollster":"Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse)","end":"2026-09-26","n":708,"kind":"LV","D":40,"R":39,"U":0,"margin":-1,"adjMargin":-1.0,"lean":null,"age":38,"url":"https://nevadanewsandviews.com/poll-lombardo-leads-by-two-but-washoe-and-question-6-flash-warnings-for-nevada-republicans/"}],"pollWeight":0.117,"pollAvg":-1.27,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.24,"F":0.12,"G":0.08,"H":0.4,"P":0.16},"topOfTicket":-6.23,"blend":-9.57,"withCandidates":-11.84,"final":-10.61,"history":-12.53,"candidateTerm":0.048,"topRaces":["gov-NV"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Nevada governor","ticketGap":-1.17},"history":{"2022":51.0,"2018":50.6,"2014":44.5},"primary":{"dem_primary_votes":172343,"rep_primary_votes":158936,"dem_share":52.0,"dem_nominee_share":58.7,"rep_nominee_share":50.9},"otherShare":6.2},{"id":"ag-NY","st":"NY","state":"New York","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Letitia James","gop":"Saritha Komatireddy","others":[],"incumbent":"Letitia James","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"James also on Working Families line; Komatireddy also on Conservative line. Sept Siena undecided not reported, about 9 implied.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_York_Attorney_General_election","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/letitia-james-re-election-cushion-shrinks-little-known-challenger-starts-turning-heads.amp"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-16.86,"prob":0.0003,"p10":-23.17,"p90":-10.55},"votes":{"dem":4006769,"rep":2832865,"other":121216,"total":6960852},"polls":[{"pollster":"Siena Research Institute","end":"2026-10-22","n":807,"kind":"LV","D":54,"R":39,"U":6,"margin":-15,"adjMargin":-15.0,"lean":null,"age":12,"url":"https://sri.siena.edu/2026/10/28/siena-poll-of-likely-new-york-state-voters/"},{"pollster":"OnMessage Inc. for the Komatireddy campaign (R)","end":"2026-10-14","n":1000,"kind":"LV","D":50.7,"R":44.7,"U":4.6,"margin":-6.0,"adjMargin":-9.7,"lean":{"dir":"R","pts":3.7},"age":20,"url":"https://www.dailywire.com/news/meet-the-prosecutor-giving-letitia-james-a-fight-in-deep-blue-new-york"},{"pollster":"Siena Research Institute","end":"2026-09-17","n":1144,"kind":"LV","D":52,"R":39,"U":0,"margin":-13,"adjMargin":-13.0,"lean":null,"age":47,"url":"https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2026/09/22/siena-poll--hochul-s-lead-over-blakeman-sees-little-change-among-likely-voters"},{"pollster":"Siena Research Institute","end":"2026-08-06","n":811,"kind":"LV","D":54,"R":36,"U":10,"margin":-18,"adjMargin":-18.0,"lean":null,"age":89,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_York_Attorney_General_election"}],"pollWeight":0.591,"pollAvg":-11.76,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-16.24,"blend":-21.79,"withCandidates":-24.78,"final":-17.16,"history":-26.8,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-NY"],"anchor":"top of ticket: New York governor","ticketGap":-2.36},"history":{"2022":54.6,"2018":63.9,"2014":57.4},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.7},{"id":"comp-NY","st":"NY","state":"New York","office":"comptroller","officeLabel":"State Comptroller","dem":"Tom DiNapoli","gop":"Joseph Hernandez","others":[],"incumbent":"Tom DiNapoli","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Incumbent Democrat DiNapoli won the June 23 primary with 65.3 percent over Warshaw and Goyle and seeks a fifth full term; biotech investor Hernandez is the Republican and Conservative nominee. 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Kulewicz beat Elliot Forhan 63-37; Faber unopposed.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_Attorney_General_election","https://local12.com/news/local/dewine-appoints-andy-wilson-as-new-attorney-general"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-2.46,"prob":0.3326,"p10":-9.75,"p90":4.83},"votes":{"dem":2420684,"rep":2303281,"other":47716,"total":4771682},"polls":[{"pollster":"Tulchin Research (D) for Kulewicz campaign","end":"2026-08-04","n":600,"kind":"LV","D":36,"R":32,"U":32,"margin":-4,"adjMargin":-3.2,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":0.8},"age":91,"url":"https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28549388-oh-sen-gov-ag-tulchin-research-for-john-kulewicz/"}],"pollWeight":0.033,"pollAvg":-3.59,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-6.35,"blend":-2.45,"withCandidates":-2.45,"final":-2.49,"history":3.64,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-OH","gov-OH"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Ohio senate, Ohio governor","ticketGap":-3.13},"history":{"2022":40.3,"2018":47.8,"2014":38.6},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":63.1},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"aud-OH","st":"OH","state":"Ohio","office":"auditor","officeLabel":"Auditor","dem":"Annette Blackwell","gop":"Frank LaRose","others":[],"incumbent":"Keith Faber","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat: Faber term-limited, running for AG. LaRose, the sitting SoS, and Blackwell, Maple Heights mayor, were both unopposed in primaries. No 2026 polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_State_Auditor_election","https://politics1.com/OH.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"auditor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-2.84,"prob":0.3107,"p10":-10.2,"p90":4.52},"votes":{"dem":2383354,"rep":2247960,"other":140367,"total":4771682},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-6.35,"blend":-2.92,"withCandidates":-2.92,"final":-2.92,"history":2.57,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-OH","gov-OH"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Ohio senate, Ohio governor","ticketGap":-3.13},"history":{"2022":41.0,"2018":48.0,"2014":39.4},"primary":null,"otherShare":2.9},{"id":"sos-OH","st":"OH","state":"Ohio","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Allison Russo","gop":"Robert Sprague","others":[{"name":"Tom Pruss","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Frank LaRose","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; LaRose is term-limited and running for auditor. Russo beat Bryan Hambley and Sprague, the state treasurer, beat Marcell Strbich in the May 5 primaries. No general election polls found; the September BGSU Ohio poll skipped this race.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_Secretary_of_State_election","https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/?p=38740","https://www.bgsu.edu/arts-and-sciences/democracy-and-public-policy-research-network/bgsu-poll.html"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-1.72,"prob":0.3824,"p10":-9.08,"p90":5.64},"votes":{"dem":2326864,"rep":2244827,"other":199991,"total":4771682},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.24,"F":0.12,"G":0.08,"H":0.4,"P":0.16},"topOfTicket":-6.35,"blend":-2.67,"withCandidates":-1.79,"final":-1.79,"history":3.39,"candidateTerm":-0.02,"topRaces":["sen-OH","gov-OH"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Ohio senate, Ohio governor","ticketGap":-3.13},"history":{"2022":40.4,"2018":47.9,"2014":37.9},"primary":{"dem_primary_votes":722981,"rep_primary_votes":774135,"dem_share":48.3,"dem_nominee_share":67.4,"rep_nominee_share":70.2},"otherShare":4.2},{"id":"court-OH-seat-held-by-daniel-r-hawkins","st":"OH","state":"Ohio","office":"supreme-court","officeLabel":"Justice of the Supreme Court, Seat held by Daniel R. 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O'Donnell won a four way GOP primary with 32.1% over Andrew King, Jill Flagg Lanzinger and Ronald Lewis. Ohio prints party labels on the ballot for Supreme Court.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_Supreme_Court_election","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_judicial_elections"],"seat":"Seat held by Jennifer Brunner","slug":"supreme-court-seat-held-by-jennifer-brunner","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-5.71,"prob":0.1602,"p10":-13.07,"p90":1.65},"votes":{"dem":2482621,"rep":2210247,"other":78813,"total":4771682},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-6.35,"blend":-2.68,"withCandidates":-5.8,"final":-5.8,"history":3.11,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-OH","gov-OH"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Ohio senate, Ohio governor","ticketGap":-3.13},"history":{"2022":40.7,"2018":47.8,"2014":38.6},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.7},{"id":"treas-OH","st":"OH","state":"Ohio","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Seth Walsh","gop":"Jay Edwards","others":[],"incumbent":"Robert Sprague","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat: Sprague term-limited, running for SoS. Edwards beat Kristina Roegner 53-47; Walsh, a Cincinnati council member, was unopposed. No 2026 polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_State_Treasurer_election","https://politics1.com/OH.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-2.72,"prob":0.3176,"p10":-10.09,"p90":4.64},"votes":{"dem":2426985,"rep":2296979,"other":47716,"total":4771682},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-6.35,"blend":-2.75,"withCandidates":-2.75,"final":-2.75,"history":2.96,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-OH","gov-OH"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Ohio senate, Ohio governor","ticketGap":-3.13},"history":{"2022":41.1,"2018":47.3,"2014":38.6},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":53.1},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ag-OK","st":"OK","state":"Oklahoma","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Nick Coffey","gop":"Jon Echols","others":[],"incumbent":"Gentner Drummond","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Drummond ran for governor. Echols beat Jeff Starling 55-45 Jun 16, no runoff.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Oklahoma_Attorney_General_election","https://www.news9.com/oklahoma-elections/oklahoma-attorney-general-echols-coffey-general-election"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":24.46,"prob":0.9997,"p10":15.45,"p90":33.47},"votes":{"dem":488298,"rep":808744,"other":13101,"total":1310145},"polls":[{"pollster":"CHS & Associates","end":"2026-08-06","n":500,"kind":"RV","D":34,"R":52,"U":14,"margin":18,"adjMargin":18.0,"lean":null,"age":89,"url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Oklahoma_Attorney_General_election"}],"pollWeight":0.025,"pollAvg":19.74,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":12.86,"blend":24.83,"withCandidates":24.83,"final":24.71,"history":30.58,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-OK","gov-OK"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Oklahoma senate, Oklahoma governor","ticketGap":8.98},"history":{"2022":28.2,"2018":33.5,"2014":31.5},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":55.0},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"aud-OK","st":"OK","state":"Oklahoma","office":"auditor","officeLabel":"Auditor","dem":null,"gop":"Melissa Capps","others":[],"incumbent":"Cindy Byrd","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Office is State Auditor and Inspector. Byrd ran for treasurer instead. Capps, the deputy auditor, was the only filer and won by default in April 2026. Under Oklahoma law unopposed offices do not appear on the ballot, so this race is likely NOT on the Nov 3 ballot.","sources":["https://kiowacountypress.net/content/candidate-filing-brings-surprises-one-new-oklahoma-statewide-office-seeker-wins-default","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/OK","https://politics1.com/OK.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"auditor","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"R","est":{"margin":100.0,"prob":1.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"ins-OK","st":"OK","state":"Oklahoma","office":"insurance-commissioner","officeLabel":"Insurance Commissioner","dem":"Craig MacIntyre","gop":"Bob Sullivan","others":[],"incumbent":"Glen Mulready","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat because Glen Mulready is term limited. Bob Sullivan beat former state Sen. Marty Quinn 55.1 to 44.9 in the Aug 25 GOP runoff. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Oklahoma_elections","https://nondoc.com/2026/06/16/robert-franklin-james-taylor-advance-in-gop-supt-race-shannon-wins-lt-gov-nomination/","https://www.guthrienewsleader.net/node/10788","https://www.news9.com/oklahoma-politics/general-election-preview-november-2026"],"seat":null,"slug":"insurance-commissioner","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":23.96,"prob":0.9996,"p10":14.88,"p90":33.04},"votes":{"dem":488121,"rep":801970,"other":20053,"total":1310145},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":12.86,"blend":24.33,"withCandidates":24.33,"final":24.33,"history":29.47,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-OK","gov-OK"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Oklahoma senate, Oklahoma governor","ticketGap":8.98},"history":{"2022":30.2,"2018":31.0,"2014":31.5},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.5},{"id":"labor-OK","st":"OK","state":"Oklahoma","office":"labor-commissioner","officeLabel":"Commissioner of Labor","dem":"Kevin Dawson","gop":"Kevin West","others":[{"name":"Mike Hall","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Leslie Osborn","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat because Leslie Osborn is term limited. State Rep. Kevin West beat state Rep. John Pfeiffer 58.3 to 41.7 in the Aug 25 GOP runoff. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Oklahoma_elections","https://nondoc.com/2026/06/16/robert-franklin-james-taylor-advance-in-gop-supt-race-shannon-wins-lt-gov-nomination/","https://www.guthrienewsleader.net/node/10788","https://www.news9.com/oklahoma-politics/general-election-preview-november-2026"],"seat":null,"slug":"labor-commissioner","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":23.59,"prob":0.9996,"p10":14.51,"p90":32.67},"votes":{"dem":480686,"rep":789753,"other":39705,"total":1310145},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":12.86,"blend":24.33,"withCandidates":24.33,"final":24.33,"history":29.47,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-OK","gov-OK"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Oklahoma senate, Oklahoma governor","ticketGap":8.98},"history":{"2022":30.2,"2018":31.0,"2014":31.5},"primary":null,"otherShare":3.0},{"id":"lg-OK","st":"OK","state":"Oklahoma","office":"lieutenant-governor","officeLabel":"Lieutenant governor","dem":"Kelly Forbes","gop":"T. W. Shannon","others":[],"incumbent":"Matt Pinnell","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Pinnell is term-limited. Shannon, a former House speaker, won the GOP primary outright with 53.8%. Forbes was unopposed. The CHS page confirms Shannon 51 and Forbes 34. Dates, n and RV come from Wikipedia, and the 15 left over is shown as undecided. CHS is a Republican consulting firm; no sponsor was named.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Oklahoma_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election","https://chs-inc.com/general-election-rep/","https://www.news9.com/oklahoma-elections/oklahoma-lieutenant-governor-race-guide-shannon-forbes"],"seat":null,"slug":"lieutenant-governor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":22.06,"prob":0.9991,"p10":13.05,"p90":31.07},"votes":{"dem":493738,"rep":782792,"other":33613,"total":1310145},"polls":[{"pollster":"CHS & Associates (R)","end":"2026-08-06","n":500,"kind":"RV","D":34,"R":51,"U":15,"margin":17,"adjMargin":13.3,"lean":{"dir":"R","pts":3.7},"age":89,"url":"https://chs-inc.com/general-election-rep/"}],"pollWeight":0.025,"pollAvg":15.01,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":12.86,"blend":22.84,"withCandidates":22.84,"final":22.64,"history":26.22,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-OK","gov-OK"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Oklahoma senate, Oklahoma governor","ticketGap":8.98},"history":{"2022":31.2,"2018":33.4,"2014":31.5},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":53.8},"otherShare":2.6},{"id":"psc-OK","st":"OK","state":"Oklahoma","office":"public-service-commission","officeLabel":"Corporation Commission","dem":"Rhonda Eastman","gop":"Brad Boles","others":[],"incumbent":"Todd Hiett","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat because Hiett is term limited. Brad Boles won the June 16 GOP primary 55.3 to 44.7 over Justin Hornback, and Rhonda Eastman won the Democratic primary with 70%. No third party candidates or polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Oklahoma_Corporation_Commission_election","https://bartlesvilleradio.com/pages/news/498702026/oklahoma-2026-primary-election-recap-for-statewide-offices","https://www.cnhinews.com/oklahoma/news/article_a4f36490-92e0-53e3-9b51-5fe843af933c.html"],"seat":null,"slug":"public-service-commission","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":23.96,"prob":0.9996,"p10":14.88,"p90":33.04},"votes":{"dem":488121,"rep":801970,"other":20053,"total":1310145},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":12.86,"blend":24.33,"withCandidates":24.33,"final":24.33,"history":29.47,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-OK","gov-OK"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Oklahoma senate, Oklahoma governor","ticketGap":8.98},"history":{"2022":30.2,"2018":31.0,"2014":31.5},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.5},{"id":"supt-OK","st":"OK","state":"Oklahoma","office":"superintendent","officeLabel":"State Superintendent of Public Instruction","dem":"Jennettie Marshall","gop":"Robert Franklin","others":[],"incumbent":"Lindel Fields","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat: Lindel Fields was appointed in fall 2025 after Ryan Walters resigned and said he would not run. Robert Franklin beat James Taylor in the Aug 25 GOP runoff with 54.6 percent, and Jennettie Marshall beat Craig McVay 57.7 to 42.3 in the Democratic primary. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Oklahoma_elections","https://nondoc.com/2026/06/16/robert-franklin-james-taylor-advance-in-gop-supt-race-shannon-wins-lt-gov-nomination/","https://www.guthrienewsleader.net/node/10788","https://www.news9.com/oklahoma-politics/general-election-preview-november-2026","https://nondoc.com/2025/10/02/lindel-fields-appointed-superintendent-as-stitt-overhauls-education-leadership/"],"seat":null,"slug":"superintendent","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":23.96,"prob":0.9996,"p10":14.88,"p90":33.04},"votes":{"dem":488121,"rep":801970,"other":20053,"total":1310145},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":12.86,"blend":24.33,"withCandidates":24.33,"final":24.33,"history":29.47,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-OK","gov-OK"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Oklahoma senate, Oklahoma governor","ticketGap":8.98},"history":{"2022":30.2,"2018":31.0,"2014":31.5},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.5},{"id":"treas-OK","st":"OK","state":"Oklahoma","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":null,"gop":"Cindy Byrd","others":[{"name":"Kiefer Perry","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Todd Russ","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Incumbent Russ lost renomination to State Auditor Byrd 61.7-38.3 on June 16. No Democrat filed; the Libertarian is the only opponent, so the race is on the ballot but has no D. A pre-primary R-primary poll from April is excluded.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Oklahoma_State_Treasurer_election","https://kiowacountypress.net/content/candidate-filing-brings-surprises-one-new-oklahoma-statewide-office-seeker-wins-default","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/OK"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"R","est":{"margin":100.0,"prob":1.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"ag-RI","st":"RI","state":"Rhode Island","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Kimberly Ahern","gop":"Alan Gordon","others":[],"incumbent":"Peter Neronha","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Neronha term-limited. Ahern won Sep 8 D primary over Hoffmann, Solomon, Knight. Only D primary polls exist, no general polls.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Rhode_Island_Attorney_General_election","https://www.wpri.com/news/elections/ahern-wins-democratic-nomination-for-ri-attorney-general/amp/"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-34.64,"prob":0.0,"p10":-42.12,"p90":-27.16},"votes":{"dem":284603,"rep":137066,"other":4259,"total":425929},"polls":[{"pollster":"Salve Regina Pell Center/Embold Research","end":"2026-10-08","n":815,"kind":"LV","D":52,"R":34,"U":14,"margin":-18,"adjMargin":-18.0,"lean":null,"age":26,"url":"https://pellcenter.org/"}],"pollWeight":0.163,"pollAvg":-20.63,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-30.0,"blend":-37.63,"withCandidates":-37.63,"final":-34.99,"history":-42.31,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-RI","gov-RI"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Rhode Island senate, Rhode Island governor","ticketGap":-5.78},"history":{"2022":60.2,"2018":76.6,"2014":55.7},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":36.3},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"lg-RI","st":"RI","state":"Rhode Island","office":"lieutenant-governor","officeLabel":"Lieutenant governor","dem":"Sabina Matos","gop":"John Loughlin","others":[],"incumbent":"Sabina Matos","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Matos won the September 9 Democratic primary with 37.6% over Xay Khamsyvoravong. Loughlin was unopposed, and there is no Republican file. An April 13-16 Opinion Diagnostics poll for Loughlin's campaign showed a tie, but it is before the cutoff and had no published numbers. Wikipedia mentions an independent, Mabel Martinez, whose ballot status is unconfirmed.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Rhode_Island_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election","https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1009/","https://www.golocalprov.com/politics/new-poll-ri-lt-governors-race-a-tie"],"seat":null,"slug":"lieutenant-governor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-14.2,"prob":0.0023,"p10":-20.63,"p90":-7.76},"votes":{"dem":225581,"rep":165106,"other":35241,"total":425929},"polls":[{"pollster":"Emerson College for WPRI","end":"2026-10-11","n":800,"kind":"LV","D":44,"R":45,"U":11,"margin":1,"adjMargin":1.0,"lean":null,"age":23,"url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/rhode-island-2026-governor/"},{"pollster":"Emerson College/WPRI","end":"2026-10-11","n":800,"kind":"LV","D":44,"R":45,"U":11,"margin":1,"adjMargin":1.0,"lean":null,"age":23,"url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/"},{"pollster":"Salve Regina Pell Center/Embold Research","end":"2026-10-08","n":815,"kind":"LV","D":43,"R":44,"U":13,"margin":1,"adjMargin":1.0,"lean":null,"age":26,"url":"https://pellcenter.org/"},{"pollster":"University of New Hampshire Survey Center","end":"2026-09-21","n":598,"kind":"LV","D":48,"R":44,"U":7,"margin":-4,"adjMargin":-4.0,"lean":null,"age":43,"url":"https://www.newsfromthestates.com/node/431276"}],"pollWeight":0.606,"pollAvg":-1.04,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-30.0,"blend":-33.2,"withCandidates":-36.26,"final":-15.48,"history":-33.1,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["sen-RI","gov-RI"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Rhode Island senate, Rhode Island governor","ticketGap":-5.78},"history":{"2022":56.6,"2018":70.1,"2014":45.6},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":37.6},"otherShare":8.3},{"id":"sos-RI","st":"RI","state":"Rhode Island","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Gregg Amore","gop":null,"others":[],"incumbent":"Gregg Amore","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"270toWin says Amore has no primary or general election opposition. Wikipedia mentions a possible primary challenger, Anthony Tamba, but no primary file exists. No Republican filed. No polls.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Rhode_Island_Secretary_of_State_election","https://www.270towin.com/2026-election-results-live/state/rhode-island/primary"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"D","est":{"margin":-100.0,"prob":0.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"treas-RI","st":"RI","state":"Rhode Island","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"James Diossa","gop":"Micholas Credle","others":[],"incumbent":"James Diossa","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Office is General Treasurer. Both primaries were unopposed. 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Sylvia Wright beat 2022 nominee Lisa Ellis 61.0 to 39.0 in the June 9 Democratic primary. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_South_Carolina_Superintendent_of_Education_election","https://scdailygazette.com/voter-guides/contests/2026-superintendent-of-education/"],"seat":null,"slug":"superintendent","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":26.07,"prob":0.9999,"p10":16.87,"p90":35.27},"votes":{"dem":714048,"rep":1244138,"other":75284,"total":2033471},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":3.2,"blend":24.02,"withCandidates":27.07,"final":27.07,"history":44.97,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-SC","gov-SC"],"anchor":"top of ticket: South Carolina senate, South Carolina governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":20.0,"2018":30.9,"2014":31.4},"primary":null,"otherShare":3.7},{"id":"treas-SC","st":"SC","state":"South Carolina","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Vincent Coe","gop":"Curtis Loftis","others":[],"incumbent":"Curtis Loftis","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Coe beat Trav Robertson, the former SCDP chair, 55.8-44.2 in the D primary. Loftis is seeking a 5th term; Wikipedia says 4th. He survived a Senate removal vote in 2026. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_South_Carolina_State_Treasurer_election","https://politics1.com/SC.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":29.35,"prob":1.0,"p10":20.15,"p90":38.55},"votes":{"dem":708064,"rep":1304902,"other":20504,"total":2033471},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":3.2,"blend":26.65,"withCandidates":29.65,"final":29.65,"history":47.14,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["sen-SC","gov-SC"],"anchor":"top of ticket: South Carolina senate, South Carolina governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":20.0,"2018":27.6,"2014":31.4},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":55.8},"otherShare":1.0},{"id":"ag-SD","st":"SD","state":"South Dakota","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":null,"gop":"Lance Russell","others":[],"incumbent":"Marty Jackley","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Jackley ran for US House. 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No polls found.","sources":["https://politics1.com/SD.htm","https://custercountychronicle.com/content/wrap-state-republican-convention","https://www.kotatv.com/2026/06/15/anti-tech-push-influences-secretary-state-race-conventions-make-state-officer-nominations/"],"seat":null,"slug":"auditor","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":14.27,"prob":0.9651,"p10":4.18,"p90":24.35},"votes":{"dem":161297,"rep":216143,"other":6994,"total":384435},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":14.92,"blend":14.53,"withCandidates":14.53,"final":14.53,"history":19.53,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["gov-SD"],"anchor":"top of ticket: South Dakota governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":34.0,"2018":37.2,"2014":23.0},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.8},{"id":"psc-SD","st":"SD","state":"South Dakota","office":"public-service-commission","officeLabel":"Public Utilities Commission","dem":"Frank Kloucek","gop":"Don Haggar","others":[],"incumbent":"Gary Hanson","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Nominees are chosen at party conventions; former lawmaker Don Haggar won the GOP nod in June, with the runner up eight votes short, and former legislator Frank Kloucek is the Democrat. Longtime Commissioner Gary Hanson said he would not seek a fifth term; the seat is assumed to be his, and no Libertarian nominee or polls were found.","sources":["https://southdakotasearchlight.com/voter-guides/contests/2026-public-utilities-commission-race/","https://www.thedakotascout.com/p/populist-push-falls-short-in-south","https://www.thedakotascout.com/p/energy-pipelines-loom-over-gop-contest","https://www.keloland.com/news/capitol-news-bureau/puc-chair-has-cancer-plans-to-step-aside-as-leader/amp","https://puc.sd.gov/News/2025/103025.aspx"],"seat":null,"slug":"public-service-commission","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":13.69,"prob":0.959,"p10":3.6,"p90":23.78},"votes":{"dem":162445,"rep":215069,"other":6919,"total":384435},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":14.92,"blend":13.94,"withCandidates":13.94,"final":13.94,"history":18.26,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["gov-SD"],"anchor":"top of ticket: South Dakota governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":34.3,"2018":38.5,"2014":26.3},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.8},{"id":"sos-SD","st":"SD","state":"South Dakota","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Terrence Davis","gop":"Heather Baxter","others":[{"name":"Tamara Lesnar","party":"Libertarian"}],"incumbent":"Monae Johnson","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Nominees were chosen at party conventions, so there are no primary files. Johnson lost renomination to state Rep. Baxter at the GOP convention and has endorsed Democrat Davis; incumbent_running is false. 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No polls found.","sources":["https://politics1.com/SD.htm","https://custercountychronicle.com/content/wrap-state-republican-convention","https://www.kotatv.com/2026/06/15/anti-tech-push-influences-secretary-state-race-conventions-make-state-officer-nominations/"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":13.97,"prob":0.962,"p10":3.88,"p90":24.06},"votes":{"dem":160226,"rep":213928,"other":10280,"total":384435},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":14.92,"blend":14.35,"withCandidates":14.35,"final":14.35,"history":19.16,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["gov-SD"],"anchor":"top of ticket: South Dakota governor","ticketGap":-0.0},"history":{"2022":33.6,"2018":38.5,"2014":30.7},"primary":null,"otherShare":2.7},{"id":"agri-TX","st":"TX","state":"Texas","office":"agriculture-commissioner","officeLabel":"Agriculture commissioner","dem":"Clayton Tucker","gop":"Nate Sheets","others":[{"name":"Austin Kelly","party":"Libertarian"},{"name":"Alfred Molison","party":"Green"}],"incumbent":"Sid Miller","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Incumbent Sid Miller sought reelection but lost Mar 3 R primary to Sheets 52.7-47.3, so not on Nov ballot. Tucker unopposed in D primary.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_Commissioner_of_Agriculture_election","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/24/texas-agriculture-commissioner-2026-guide-nate-sheets-clayton-tucker/"],"seat":null,"slug":"agriculture-commissioner","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":1.84,"prob":0.6586,"p10":-3.94,"p90":7.63},"votes":{"dem":4717496,"rep":4901897,"other":379530,"total":9998925},"polls":[{"pollster":"Texas Southern University, Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center","end":"2026-10-25","n":2000,"kind":"LV","D":44,"R":48,"U":6,"margin":4,"adjMargin":4.0,"lean":null,"age":9,"url":"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6ae28aaadbf6636957aa51e7/1793231530759/TSUStatewideOct2026.pdf"},{"pollster":"Texas Public Opinion Research","end":"2026-10-18","n":969,"kind":"LV","D":48,"R":50,"U":0,"margin":2,"adjMargin":2.0,"lean":null,"age":16,"url":"https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/october-poll-in-texas-general-election"},{"pollster":"University of Houston Hobby School","end":"2026-10-14","n":2000,"kind":"LV","D":40,"R":46,"U":12,"margin":6,"adjMargin":6.0,"lean":null,"age":20,"url":"https://www.uh.edu/hobby/texas2026/statewide26.pdf"},{"pollster":"Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R)","end":"2026-09-24","n":865,"kind":"LV","D":41,"R":47,"U":12,"margin":6,"adjMargin":2.3,"lean":{"dir":"R","pts":3.7},"age":40,"url":"https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/29/paxton-and-talarico-tied-at-48-percent-in-latest-poll-for-texas-senate-seat/"},{"pollster":"Texas Public Opinion Research","end":"2026-09-22","n":1007,"kind":"LV","D":44,"R":46,"U":7,"margin":2,"adjMargin":2.0,"lean":null,"age":42,"url":"https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-in-texas-general-election-662"},{"pollster":"Texas Southern University","end":"2026-09-19","n":1800,"kind":"LV","D":39,"R":45,"U":14,"margin":6,"adjMargin":6.0,"lean":null,"age":45,"url":"https://www.fox4news.com/election/james-talarico-ken-paxton-texas-us-senate-tsu-poll"},{"pollster":"Texas Public Opinion Research","end":"2026-08-24","n":1000,"kind":"LV","D":40,"R":44,"U":11,"margin":4,"adjMargin":4.0,"lean":null,"age":71,"url":"https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-in-texas-general-election"}],"pollWeight":0.65,"pollAvg":3.89,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-1.9,"blend":-1.75,"withCandidates":-1.75,"final":1.92,"history":-0.55,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-TX","gov-TX"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Texas senate, Texas governor","ticketGap":-1.49},"history":{"2022":43.8,"2018":47.3,"2014":38.8},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":52.7},"otherShare":3.8},{"id":"ag-TX","st":"TX","state":"Texas","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Nathan Johnson","gop":"Mayes Middleton","others":[{"name":"Tom Oxford","party":"Libertarian"},{"name":"Omer Wagas Khwaja","party":"Independent"}],"incumbent":"Ken Paxton","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Paxton ran for US Senate. Middleton beat Chip Roy, Johnson beat Joe Jaworski in May 26 runoffs. TPOR is run by Democrat Luke Warford and reports leaners in topline. 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The September Vermont Public/Braun poll may include this race, but only as a chart with no readable numbers, so it is not recorded.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_Secretary_of_State_election","https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/vermont-general-election-poll-results-2026"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-23.26,"prob":0.0005,"p10":-32.3,"p90":-14.22},"votes":{"dem":195388,"rep":118799,"other":15035,"total":329223},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":5.42,"blend":-21.18,"withCandidates":-24.38,"final":-24.38,"history":-42.18,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-VT"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Vermont governor","ticketGap":-8.98},"history":{"2022":65.1,"2018":68.9,"2014":77.2},"primary":null,"otherShare":4.6},{"id":"treas-VT","st":"VT","state":"Vermont","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Mike Pieciak","gop":"Lynn LaFleur","others":[{"name":"Zachary Hampl","party":"Progressive (ballot line; not endorsed by the Progressive Party)"}],"incumbent":"Mike Pieciak","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"H. Brooke Paige won the R primary as a placeholder, then withdrew; the VT GOP named LaFleur. Wikipedia's race page is stale and still lists Paige. No polls found.","sources":["https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-08-18/vermont-republicans-name-candidates-for-attorney-general-auditor-and-treasurer","https://vtdigger.org/2026/08/24/a-vermonter-is-running-for-treasurer-as-a-progressive-the-party-says-hes-not-their-candidate/","https://politics1.com/VT.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-23.21,"prob":0.0005,"p10":-32.25,"p90":-14.18},"votes":{"dem":196017,"rep":119589,"other":13615,"total":329223},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":5.42,"blend":-21.02,"withCandidates":-24.22,"final":-24.22,"history":-41.86,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-VT"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Vermont governor","ticketGap":-8.98},"history":{"2022":65.3,"2018":68.0,"2014":75.3},"primary":null,"otherShare":4.1},{"id":"ag-WI","st":"WI","state":"Wisconsin","office":"attorney-general","officeLabel":"Attorney general","dem":"Josh Kaul","gop":"Eric Toney","others":[],"incumbent":"Josh Kaul","incParty":"D","incRunning":true,"note":"Rematch of 2022. Both unopposed Aug 11. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Wisconsin_Attorney_General_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"attorney-general","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-10.34,"prob":0.0617,"p10":-18.93,"p90":-1.74},"votes":{"dem":1634297,"rep":1323598,"other":48104,"total":3006001},"polls":[{"pollster":"Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General Association (D)","end":"2026-10-15","n":800,"kind":"LV","D":49,"R":43,"U":8,"margin":-6,"adjMargin":-4.7,"lean":{"dir":"D","pts":1.4},"age":19,"url":"https://static.washingtonsun.com/33/85/74b6a49f45b9b658bba4b65d6411/daga-state-polling-memo-f10-23-26.pdf"}],"pollWeight":0.189,"pollAvg":-5.12,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-6.61,"blend":-8.62,"withCandidates":-11.75,"final":-10.5,"history":-12.24,"candidateTerm":0.07,"topRaces":["gov-WI"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Wisconsin governor","ticketGap":1.03},"history":{"2022":50.3,"2018":51.0,"2014":47.8},"primary":null,"otherShare":1.6},{"id":"sos-WI","st":"WI","state":"Wisconsin","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"JoCasta Zamarripa","gop":"Jay Schroeder","others":[{"name":"Pete Karas","party":"Green"}],"incumbent":"Sarah Godlewski","incParty":"D","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Godlewski is running for lieutenant governor. Zamarripa was effectively unopposed in the Democratic primary, and there is no Democratic file. Schroeder won the GOP primary with 47 percent. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Wisconsin_Secretary_of_State_election","https://wpr.org/news/wisconsin-secretary-state-jay-schroeder-jocasta-zamarripa-pete-karas-2026"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-8.53,"prob":0.1153,"p10":-17.64,"p90":0.59},"votes":{"dem":1572008,"rep":1315704,"other":118287,"total":3006001},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-6.61,"blend":-8.88,"withCandidates":-8.88,"final":-8.88,"history":-12.76,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["gov-WI"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Wisconsin governor","ticketGap":1.03},"history":{"2022":50.1,"2018":52.3,"2014":50.4},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":47.3},"otherShare":3.9},{"id":"treas-WI","st":"WI","state":"Wisconsin","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":"Yee Leng Xiong","gop":"John Leiber","others":[],"incumbent":"John Leiber","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Xiong beat Dylan Helmenstine 57-43 in the D primary. The only polls found, from State Navigate, cover the D primary. No general election polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Wisconsin_State_Treasurer_election","https://wisconsinexaminer.com/voter-guides/contests/2026-general-treasurer/"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":-5.15,"prob":0.2345,"p10":-14.27,"p90":3.97},"votes":{"dem":1525744,"rep":1370923,"other":109332,"total":3006001},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":-6.61,"blend":-8.48,"withCandidates":-5.34,"final":-5.34,"history":-11.94,"candidateTerm":-0.07,"topRaces":["gov-WI"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Wisconsin governor","ticketGap":1.03},"history":{"2022":49.6,"2018":51.9,"2014":48.3},"primary":{"d_nominee_share":57.3},"otherShare":3.6},{"id":"aud-WY","st":"WY","state":"Wyoming","office":"auditor","officeLabel":"Auditor","dem":null,"gop":"Kristi Racines","others":[],"incumbent":"Kristi Racines","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Unopposed in primary and general.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Wyoming_State_Auditor_election","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/WY","https://politics1.com/WY.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"auditor","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"R","est":{"margin":100.0,"prob":1.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}},{"id":"sos-WY","st":"WY","state":"Wyoming","office":"secretary-of-state","officeLabel":"Secretary of state","dem":"Bryan McCarty","gop":"Robert Short","others":[],"incumbent":"Chuck Gray","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat; Gray ran for the U.S. House. Short, a Converse County commissioner, beat Rachel Rodriguez-Williams in the GOP primary. McCarty was unopposed, and there is no Democratic file. No polls found.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Wyoming_Secretary_of_State_election"],"seat":null,"slug":"secretary-of-state","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":39.05,"prob":1.0,"p10":30.24,"p90":47.87},"votes":{"dem":58021,"rep":142921,"other":16458,"total":217402},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":34.94,"blend":42.25,"withCandidates":42.25,"final":42.25,"history":49.76,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-WY","gov-WY"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Wyoming senate, Wyoming governor","ticketGap":2.87},"history":{"2018":27.8,"2014":13.6},"primary":{"r_nominee_share":45.6},"otherShare":7.6},{"id":"supt-WY","st":"WY","state":"Wyoming","office":"superintendent","officeLabel":"Superintendent of Public Instruction","dem":"Ana Cordova","gop":"Steve Harshman","others":[],"incumbent":"Megan Degenfelder","incParty":"R","incRunning":false,"note":"Open seat because Megan Degenfelder ran for governor. Former House Speaker Steve Harshman won the Aug 18 GOP primary with about 58 percent over Tom Kelly and Chad Auer, and Ana Cordova beat Sergio Maldonado 63 to 37 for the Democrats. Minor party candidates not checked; no polls found.","sources":["https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/politics-government/2026-08-19/moderates-win-republican-primaries-for-wyomings-top-offices"],"seat":null,"slug":"superintendent","seatsUp":1,"est":{"margin":40.78,"prob":1.0,"p10":31.97,"p90":49.6},"votes":{"dem":60254,"rep":148918,"other":8229,"total":217402},"polls":[],"pollWeight":0.0,"pollAvg":null,"legs":{"weights":{"T":0.286,"F":0.143,"G":0.095,"H":0.476},"topOfTicket":34.94,"blend":42.39,"withCandidates":42.39,"final":42.39,"history":50.05,"candidateTerm":0.0,"topRaces":["sen-WY","gov-WY"],"anchor":"top of ticket: Wyoming senate, Wyoming governor","ticketGap":2.87},"history":{"2018":27.5,"2014":13.6},"primary":null,"otherShare":3.8},{"id":"treas-WY","st":"WY","state":"Wyoming","office":"treasurer","officeLabel":"Treasurer","dem":null,"gop":"Curt Meier","others":[],"incumbent":"Curt Meier","incParty":"R","incRunning":true,"note":"Meier beat state Rep. Scott Smith 68-32 in the R primary. No D or third-party candidate.","sources":["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Wyoming_State_Treasurer_election","https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/WY","https://politics1.com/WY.htm"],"seat":null,"slug":"treasurer","seatsUp":1,"uncontested":"R","est":{"margin":100.0,"prob":1.0,"p10":null,"p90":null},"polls":[],"legs":{},"history":{}}]}