2028 forecast · Alaska · President · 3 electoral votes
The Democrat and the other side are in a toss up Alaska.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +0.7 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +6.0 and R +4.5. Projected votes: 165,791 Democratic, 163,341 Republican, 13,889 other, 343,021 in all.
57%Democratic win chance
D +0.72028 margin
R +19.72024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginAlaska is modeled at the state level here, from its certified 2024 vote moved by the national swing.
D +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DDemocrats against Vance
Alaska| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +2.1 | 69% |
| Harris | D +1.8 | 67% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +1.6 | 65% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +1.6 | 65% |
| Ossoff | D +1.5 | 65% |
| CooperHYP | D +1.5 | 64% |
| Cuban | D +1.3 | 63% |
| BookerHYP | D +1.3 | 63% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +0.8 | 58% |
| Generic Democrat | D +0.7 | 57% |
| BeshearHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| KellyHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| WarnockHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| GallegoHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| WalzHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| MurphyHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| KhannaHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| CrockettHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| BrownHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| PolisHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| Shapiro | D +0.2 | 52% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +0.1 | 50% |
| El-SayedHYP | Even | 50% |
| MooreHYP | R +0.3 | 47% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +0.4 | 46% |
| Newsom | R +0.9 | 42% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +2.3 | 29% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Alaska| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | D +1.1 | 61% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +0.8 | 58% |
| Vance | D +0.7 | 57% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| HaleyHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| KempHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| CruzHYP | D +0.7 | 57% |
| Rubio | D +0.1 | 51% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.