ArchiveBrazil’s runoff was held on October 25, 2026. The forecast is shown as published on October 24, before the vote, and the results are the provider’s last count. Neither is updated. Official results are those certified by the TSE. About this archive
Brazil's 2026 runoff, as covered
Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula met in the runoff on October 25, 2026. These pages keep the On Point forecast exactly as it was published the day before the vote, and the count as the provider last reported it. Neither is updated.
Forecast and count, state by state
Margins in points of the valid vote| State | Forecast | Archived count | Counted | Pages |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | Flávio +12.9 | Flávio +7.7 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Minas Gerais | Flávio +5.3 | Lula +0.9 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Rio de Janeiro | Flávio +11.4 | Flávio +6.2 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Bahia | Lula +34.9 | Lula +42.6 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Paraná | Flávio +27.7 | Flávio +25.2 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Rio Grande do Sul | Flávio +18.7 | Flávio +15.7 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Ceará | Lula +31.3 | Lula +37.9 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Pernambuco | Lula +29.5 | Lula +38.4 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Pará | Lula +2.9 | Lula +10.0 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Santa Catarina | Flávio +40.4 | Flávio +38.8 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Maranhão | Lula +30.8 | Lula +39.1 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Goiás | Flávio +21.1 | Flávio +19.3 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Paraíba | Lula +26.2 | Lula +34.9 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Espírito Santo | Flávio +17.1 | Flávio +12.7 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Amazonas | Lula +2.6 | Lula +8.0 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Piauí | Lula +44.3 | Lula +51.8 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Rio Grande do Norte | Lula +23.0 | Lula +31.4 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Mato Grosso | Flávio +32.9 | Flávio +32.1 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Alagoas | Lula +10.9 | Lula +21.5 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Distrito Federal | Flávio +8.1 | Flávio +8.6 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Mato Grosso do Sul | Flávio +21.1 | Flávio +19.2 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Sergipe | Lula +27.7 | Lula +39.1 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Rondônia | Flávio +43.7 | Flávio +39.2 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Tocantins | Flávio +8.2 | Flávio +2.7 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Acre | Flávio +37.3 | Flávio +33.1 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Amapá | Flávio +1.4 | Lula +5.8 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
| Roraima | Flávio +49.2 | Flávio +44.9 | 100.0% | Forecast · Results |
Forecast: the On Point projection published before the vote. Archived count: the provider's last update, two candidates' valid votes only.
Methods
The forecast blended the average of runoff polls (65%) with a structural estimate from each state's first round vote (35%), adjusted each state by how it moved in the 2022 runoff, and ran 40,000 simulations with national, regional and state errors. On election night, the results pages compared each counted municipality with its forecast and used that gap to estimate the votes still to come; a state or the country was projected only when the gap could no longer be overturned.
More on the forecast on the forecast page.
Dates and sources
| Forecast published | October 24, 2026 |
| Runoff held | October 25, 2026 |
| Provider's last update | October 26, 2026, 12:05 PM Brasília |
| Count saved by On Point | October 31, 2026 |
| Pages archived | October 31, 2026 |
| Source of the count | civicAPI, which carries the TSE's count: national race 162819 and the 27 state races, 28 records saved with a SHA-256 hash of each |
What this archive does not hold
- The TSE's certified result. The count kept here is the provider's last update, at 99.9% of sections; the official result is the one certified by the TSE.
- The count update by update. Only the last update is kept, so the results pages show no election night timeline.
- Blank and spoiled ballots and turnout. The archived pages show the two candidates' valid votes only.