North · TO · 2026 runoff
Tocantins
Flávio is the favorite in Tocantins, with 54.1% of the projected valid vote and a 91% chance of carrying the state. That is a net 75K votes for Flávio, out of about 922K projected valid votes.
Flávio Bolsonaro54.1%
vs
Lula45.9%
Projected valid vote · in 8 of 10 simulations Flávio lands between 50.3% and 57.9%
Projected marginFlávio +8.2Flávio has a 91% chance
Projected valid votes922K922,145
Flávio, first round53.7%Flávio and Lula votes only · +0.4 pts now
Bolsonaro in 202248.6%Runoff against Lula · +5.4 pts now
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Lula +40Flávio +40
The first round comparison uses only Flávio's and Lula's votes. Drag to move the map, use the buttons or Ctrl and scroll to zoom, and double click to reset.
Every municipality
Click a town on the map to find it here| Lula |
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Flávio, Lula and first round are shares of the valid votes for the two. Change is Flávio's forecast minus his first round result.
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