South · RS · 2026 runoff
Rio Grande do Sul
Flávio is the favorite in Rio Grande do Sul, with 59.4% of the projected valid vote and a 100% chance of carrying the state. That is a net 1.19M votes for Flávio, a real share of the national race.
Flávio Bolsonaro59.4%
vs
Lula40.6%
Projected valid vote · in 8 of 10 simulations Flávio lands between 56.2% and 62.5%
Projected marginFlávio +18.7Flávio has a 100% chance
Projected valid votes6.34M6,336,091
Flávio, first round60.9%Flávio and Lula votes only · −1.5 pts now
Bolsonaro in 202256.4%Runoff against Lula · +3.0 pts now
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Lula +40Flávio +40
The first round comparison uses only Flávio's and Lula's votes. Drag to move the map, use the buttons or Ctrl and scroll to zoom, and double click to reset.
Every municipality
Click a town on the map to find it here| Lula |
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Flávio, Lula and first round are shares of the valid votes for the two. Change is Flávio's forecast minus his first round result.
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