Southeast · SP · 2026 runoff
São Paulo
Flávio is the favorite in São Paulo, with 56.5% of the projected valid vote and a 99% chance of carrying the state. That is a net 3.16M votes for Flávio, a real share of the national race.
Flávio Bolsonaro56.5%
vs
Lula43.6%
Projected valid vote · in 8 of 10 simulations Flávio lands between 53.2% and 59.7%
Projected marginFlávio +12.9Flávio has a 99% chance
Projected valid votes24.5M24,489,094
Flávio, first round57.6%Flávio and Lula votes only · −1.2 pts now
Bolsonaro in 202255.2%Runoff against Lula · +1.2 pts now
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Lula +40Flávio +40
The first round comparison uses only Flávio's and Lula's votes. Drag to move the map, use the buttons or Ctrl and scroll to zoom, and double click to reset.
Every municipality
Click a town on the map to find it here| Lula |
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Flávio, Lula and first round are shares of the valid votes for the two. Change is Flávio's forecast minus his first round result.
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