Center-West · MS · 2026 runoff
Mato Grosso do Sul
Flávio is the favorite in Mato Grosso do Sul, with 60.6% of the projected valid vote and a 100% chance of carrying the state. That is a net 311K votes for Flávio, out of about 1.47M projected valid votes.
Flávio Bolsonaro60.6%
vs
Lula39.5%
Projected valid vote · in 8 of 10 simulations Flávio lands between 57.4% and 63.7%
Projected marginFlávio +21.1Flávio has a 100% chance
Projected valid votes1.47M1,473,675
Flávio, first round62.8%Flávio and Lula votes only · −2.3 pts now
Bolsonaro in 202259.5%Runoff against Lula · +1.1 pts now
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Lula +40Flávio +40
The first round comparison uses only Flávio's and Lula's votes. Drag to move the map, use the buttons or Ctrl and scroll to zoom, and double click to reset.
Every municipality
Click a town on the map to find it here| Lula |
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Flávio, Lula and first round are shares of the valid votes for the two. Change is Flávio's forecast minus his first round result.
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