North · PA · 2026 runoff
Pará
Lula is the favorite in Pará, with 51.4% of the projected valid vote and a 72% chance of carrying the state. That is a net 139K votes for Lula, out of about 4.82M projected valid votes.
Flávio Bolsonaro48.6%
vs
Lula51.4%
Projected valid vote · in 8 of 10 simulations Flávio lands between 45.3% and 51.8%
Projected marginLula +2.9Flávio has a 28% chance
Projected valid votes4.82M4,817,868
Flávio, first round47.1%Flávio and Lula votes only · +1.4 pts now
Bolsonaro in 202245.3%Runoff against Lula · +3.3 pts now
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Lula +40Flávio +40
The first round comparison uses only Flávio's and Lula's votes. Drag to move the map, use the buttons or Ctrl and scroll to zoom, and double click to reset.
Every municipality
Click a town on the map to find it here| Lula |
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Flávio, Lula and first round are shares of the valid votes for the two. Change is Flávio's forecast minus his first round result.
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