Northeast · BA · 2026 runoff
Bahia
Lula is the favorite in Bahia, with 67.5% of the projected valid vote and a 100% chance of carrying the state. That is a net 2.97M votes for Lula, a real share of the national race.
Flávio Bolsonaro32.5%
vs
Lula67.5%
Projected valid vote · in 8 of 10 simulations Flávio lands between 29.7% and 35.4%
Projected marginLula +34.9Flávio has a 0% chance
Projected valid votes8.49M8,488,932
Flávio, first round30.1%Flávio and Lula votes only · +2.4 pts now
Bolsonaro in 202227.9%Runoff against Lula · +4.7 pts now
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Lula +40Flávio +40
The first round comparison uses only Flávio's and Lula's votes. Drag to move the map, use the buttons or Ctrl and scroll to zoom, and double click to reset.
Every municipality
Click a town on the map to find it here| Lula |
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Flávio, Lula and first round are shares of the valid votes for the two. Change is Flávio's forecast minus his first round result.
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