Election Day, Nov 3 10 daysSenate D 78%House D 93%Governors D 86%Forecast updated Oct 24
Brazil 2026Runoff · October 25
North · RO · 2026 runoff

Rondônia

Flávio is the favorite in Rondônia, with 71.9% of the projected valid vote and a 100% chance of carrying the state. That is a net 418K votes for Flávio, out of about 958K projected valid votes.

Flávio Bolsonaro71.9%
vs
Lula28.2%
Projected valid vote · in 8 of 10 simulations Flávio lands between 68.7% and 74.9%
Projected marginFlávio +43.7Flávio has a 100% chance
Projected valid votes958K957,704
Flávio, first round72.3%Flávio and Lula votes only · −0.4 pts now
Bolsonaro in 202270.7%Runoff against Lula · +1.2 pts now

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Lula +40Flávio +40

The first round comparison uses only Flávio's and Lula's votes. Drag to move the map, use the buttons or Ctrl and scroll to zoom, and double click to reset.

Every municipality

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Lula

Flávio, Lula and first round are shares of the valid votes for the two. Change is Flávio's forecast minus his first round result.

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