South · SC · 2026 runoff
Santa Catarina
Flávio is the favorite in Santa Catarina, with 70.2% of the projected valid vote and a 100% chance of carrying the state. That is a net 1.79M votes for Flávio, a real share of the national race.
Flávio Bolsonaro70.2%
vs
Lula29.8%
Projected valid vote · in 8 of 10 simulations Flávio lands between 67.4% and 72.9%
Projected marginFlávio +40.4Flávio has a 100% chance
Projected valid votes4.44M4,437,079
Flávio, first round72.7%Flávio and Lula votes only · −2.5 pts now
Bolsonaro in 202269.3%Runoff against Lula · +0.9 pts now
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Lula +40Flávio +40
The first round comparison uses only Flávio's and Lula's votes. Drag to move the map, use the buttons or Ctrl and scroll to zoom, and double click to reset.
Every municipality
Click a town on the map to find it here| Lula |
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Flávio, Lula and first round are shares of the valid votes for the two. Change is Flávio's forecast minus his first round result.
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