Election Day, Nov 3 10 daysSenate D 78%House D 93%Governors D 86%Forecast updated Oct 24
Brazil 2026Runoff · October 25
Northeast · PI · 2026 runoff

Piauí

Lula is the favorite in Piauí, with 72.2% of the projected valid vote and a 100% chance of carrying the state. That is a net 943K votes for Lula, a real share of the national race.

Flávio Bolsonaro27.9%
vs
Lula72.2%
Projected valid vote · in 8 of 10 simulations Flávio lands between 25.2% and 30.5%
Projected marginLula +44.3Flávio has a 0% chance
Projected valid votes2.13M2,128,356
Flávio, first round25.3%Flávio and Lula votes only · +2.5 pts now
Bolsonaro in 202223.1%Runoff against Lula · +4.7 pts now

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Lula +40Flávio +40

The first round comparison uses only Flávio's and Lula's votes. Drag to move the map, use the buttons or Ctrl and scroll to zoom, and double click to reset.

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Lula

Flávio, Lula and first round are shares of the valid votes for the two. Change is Flávio's forecast minus his first round result.

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