How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
New Mexico Senate
Ben Ray Luján vs Larry Marker
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2599
Raised $6.4M against $92K for Larry Marker.
- Cash weight 20100
$4.4M in the bank against $2K for Larry Marker. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $217K helping Ben Ray Luján and $0 helping Larry Marker.
- Early vote weight 1587
Registered Democrats cast 55% of the 235,634 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 4.3 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$134K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 251
Raised $92K against $6.4M for Ben Ray Luján.
- Cash weight 200
$2K in the bank against $4.4M for Ben Ray Luján. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Larry Marker and $217K helping Ben Ray Luján.
- Early vote weight 1514
Registered Republicans cast 29% of the 235,634 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 55% for the other party. That is 4.3 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $2K against $4.4M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Ben Ray Luján leads by 24.7 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 202,263 votes; a one point swing is about 4,093 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +16.5 and D +32.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +16.1. Your best recent poll is SurveyUSA for KOB 4 at D +17.4; your worst is Research & Polling Inc. at D +17.0. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Bernalillo, a projected net 113,044 votes; Santa Fe, a projected net 49,854 votes; Doña Ana, a projected net 23,304 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Valencia, D +6.8, 3.5% of the vote; Otero, R +10.9, 2.7% of the vote; Luna, D +0.9, 0.9% of the vote; Colfax, D +8.1, 0.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ben Ray Luján runs furthest behind in Sandoval, Los Alamos, Lea. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 61 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.27 points; Voters without a degree, 56% of voters, 61 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.81 points; White voters, 48% of voters, 52 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.40 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ben Ray Luján: Immigration voters 32 to 68, White voters 52 to 48, Small counties 52 to 48. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$4.4M cash against $2K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 55% of the 235,634 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 4.3 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.7 points toward Ben Ray Luján. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Larry Marker's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 29% of the 235,634 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 55% for the other party.
- Close the gap
Larry Marker trails by 24.7 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 101,132 voters switching sides, or 202,263 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +32.8 and D +16.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +16.1. Your best recent poll is Research & Polling Inc. at D +17.0; your worst is SurveyUSA for KOB 4 at D +17.4. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Lea, a projected net 9,116 votes; Eddy, a projected net 8,558 votes; San Juan, a projected net 5,602 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Valencia, D +6.8, 3.5% of the vote; Otero, R +10.9, 2.7% of the vote; Luna, D +0.9, 0.9% of the vote; Colfax, D +8.1, 0.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Larry Marker runs furthest behind in Rio Arriba, McKinley, Valencia. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 39 to 61, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.27 points; Voters without a degree, 56% of voters, 39 to 61, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.81 points; White voters, 48% of voters, 48 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.40 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Larry Marker: 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 22 to 78, Health care and Social Security voters 23 to 77, Corruption voters 23 to 77. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2K cash against $4.4M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 29% of the 235,634 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 55% for the other party. That is 4.3 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.7 points away from Larry Marker. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Ben Ray Luján's strongest asset
Cash: $4.4M in the bank against $2K for Larry Marker.
The map for Luján
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo | D +40.7 | 33.9% | +113,044 |
| Santa Fe | D +65.4 | 9.3% | +49,854 |
| Doña Ana | D +31.6 | 9% | +23,304 |
| McKinley | D +49.1 | 2.8% | +11,286 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | D +6.8 | 3.5% | +1,972 |
| Otero | R +10.9 | 2.7% | -2,365 |
| Luna | D +0.9 | 0.9% | +68 |
| Colfax | D +8.1 | 0.6% | +427 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandoval | D +14.7 | 8.3% | +10,027 |
| Los Alamos | D +41.3 | 1.3% | +4,426 |
| Lea | R +49.8 | 2.2% | -9,116 |
The coalition
Luján against Marker among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202466% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters without a degree56% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- White voters48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Men48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- White voters48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Small counties23% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +24.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +32.8 and D +16.5
- Polling average
- D +16.1
- Partisan lean
- D +7.6
- Early vote effect
- D +0.7
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 6 | 1,125 LV | D +17.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KOB 4 | 15 | 567 LV | D +17.4 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Luján | Marker | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $6.4M | $92K |
| Spent | $2.4M | $81K |
| Cash on hand | $4.4M | $2K |
| Outside money for | $217K | $0 |
| Google ads | $134K | $0 |
The early vote
New Mexico, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 235,634
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +26.9
- Forecast expected
- D +22.6
- Against expectation
- 4.3 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
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