How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
New Mexico Governor
Deb Haaland vs Gregg Hull
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2581
Raised $6.4M against $1.5M for Gregg Hull.
- Cash weight 2084
$2.8M in the bank against $520K for Gregg Hull.
- Early vote weight 1587
Registered Democrats cast 55% of the 235,634 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 4.3 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Money weight 2519
Raised $1.5M against $6.4M for Deb Haaland.
- Cash weight 2016
$520K in the bank against $2.8M for Deb Haaland.
- Early vote weight 1514
Registered Republicans cast 29% of the 235,634 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 55% for the other party. That is 4.3 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $520K against $2.8M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Deb Haaland leads by 17.4 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 141,710 votes; a one point swing is about 4,065 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +10.1 and D +24.7. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +6.9. Your best recent poll is Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal at D +8.0; your worst is SurveyUSA at D +5.4. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Bernalillo, a projected net 85,734 votes; Santa Fe, a projected net 47,587 votes; Doña Ana, a projected net 17,634 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sandoval, D +7.8, 8.4% of the vote; Valencia, R +5.5, 3.5% of the vote; Luna, R +8.2, 0.9% of the vote; Colfax, R +1.1, 0.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Deb Haaland runs furthest behind in Sandoval, Los Alamos, Bernalillo. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 59 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.27 points; Voters without a degree, 56% of voters, 57 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.81 points; Women, 52% of voters, 62 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.62 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Deb Haaland: Immigration voters 30 to 70, White voters 48 to 51, Voters who can afford daily costs 49 to 50. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.8M cash against $520K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 55% of the 235,634 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 4.3 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.7 points toward Deb Haaland. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Gregg Hull's strongest asset
Money: Raised $1.5M against $6.4M for Deb Haaland.
- Close the gap
Gregg Hull trails by 17.4 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 70,855 voters switching sides, or 141,710 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +24.7 and D +10.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +6.9. Your best recent poll is SurveyUSA at D +5.4; your worst is Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal at D +8.0. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Lea, a projected net 9,086 votes; San Juan, a projected net 8,565 votes; Eddy, a projected net 8,556 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sandoval, D +7.8, 8.4% of the vote; Valencia, R +5.5, 3.5% of the vote; Luna, R +8.2, 0.9% of the vote; Colfax, R +1.1, 0.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Gregg Hull runs furthest behind in McKinley, Grant, Doña Ana. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 41 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.27 points; Voters without a degree, 56% of voters, 41 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.81 points; Women, 52% of voters, 37 to 62, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.62 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Gregg Hull: Health care and Social Security voters 24 to 76, Corruption voters 28 to 71, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 28 to 70. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$520K cash against $2.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 29% of the 235,634 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 55% for the other party. That is 4.3 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.7 points away from Gregg Hull. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Deb Haaland's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 55% of the 235,634 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 29% for the other party.
The map for Haaland
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo | D +30.9 | 34.2% | +85,734 |
| Santa Fe | D +62.1 | 9.4% | +47,587 |
| Doña Ana | D +24.2 | 9% | +17,634 |
| McKinley | D +42.0 | 2.8% | +9,592 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandoval | D +7.8 | 8.4% | +5,388 |
| Valencia | R +5.5 | 3.5% | -1,584 |
| Luna | R +8.2 | 0.9% | -575 |
| Colfax | R +1.1 | 0.6% | -59 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandoval | D +7.8 | 8.4% | +5,388 |
| Los Alamos | D +37.4 | 1.3% | +4,063 |
| Bernalillo | D +30.9 | 34.2% | +85,734 |
The coalition
Haaland against Hull among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202466% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters without a degree56% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Women52% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- White voters48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- White voters48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Voters who can afford daily costs34% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.7
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +17.4
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +24.7 and D +10.1
- Polling average
- D +6.9
- Partisan lean
- D +7.6
- Early vote effect
- D +0.7
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal | 6 | 1,125 LV | D +8.0 |
| SurveyUSA | 15 | 567 LV | D +5.4 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Haaland | Hull | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $6.4M | $1.5M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $2.8M | $520K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
New Mexico, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 235,634
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +26.9
- Forecast expected
- D +22.6
- Against expectation
- 4.3 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-09-13Pete Buttigieg rally in Las Cruces
Buttigieg rallied more than 600 people at Centennial High School for Haaland and Vasquez. Source