How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Rhode Island Senate
Jack Reed vs Raymond McKay
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2595
Raised $3.6M against $196K for Raymond McKay.
- Cash weight 20100
$3.0M in the bank against $7K for Raymond McKay. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 1578
Registered Democrats cast 46% of the 60,740 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 8.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$127K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 255
Raised $196K against $3.6M for Jack Reed.
- Cash weight 200
$7K in the bank against $3.0M for Jack Reed. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 1522
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 60,740 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 46% for the other party. That is 8.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $7K against $3.0M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Jack Reed leads by 36.3 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 154,600 votes; a one point swing is about 2,130 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +29.4 and D +43.6. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +33.9. Your best recent poll is Emerson College/WPRI at D +34.6; your worst is University of New Hampshire at D +20.3. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Providence, a projected net 82,803 votes; Washington, a projected net 22,784 votes; Kent, a projected net 20,696 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jack Reed runs furthest behind in Washington, Newport. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who can afford daily costs, 37% of voters, 53 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.86 points; Economy voters, 35% of voters, 58 to 34, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.74 points; Other issue voters, 32% of voters, 56 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.57 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jack Reed: Immigration voters 32 to 61, Voters who can afford daily costs 53 to 40, 2024 voters who skipped 2022 56 to 37. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$3.0M cash against $7K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 46% of the 60,740 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 8.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.5 points away from Jack Reed. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Raymond McKay's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 60,740 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 46% for the other party.
- Close the gap
Raymond McKay trails by 36.3 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 77,300 voters switching sides, or 154,600 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +43.6 and D +29.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +33.9. Your best recent poll is University of New Hampshire at D +20.3; your worst is Emerson College/WPRI at D +34.6. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Raymond McKay runs furthest behind in Kent. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who can afford daily costs, 37% of voters, 40 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.86 points; Economy voters, 35% of voters, 34 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.74 points; Other issue voters, 32% of voters, 37 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.57 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Raymond McKay: Black voters 4 to 90, Independents 12 to 78, Moderates 14 to 80. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$7K cash against $3.0M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 60,740 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 46% for the other party. That is 8.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.5 points toward Raymond McKay. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Jack Reed's strongest asset
Cash: $3.0M in the bank against $7K for Raymond McKay.
The map for Reed
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | D +37.1 | 52.4% | +82,803 |
| Washington | D +35.2 | 15.2% | +22,784 |
| Kent | D +27.0 | 18% | +20,696 |
| Newport | D +45.7 | 8.9% | +17,240 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | D +35.2 | 15.2% | +22,784 |
| Newport | D +45.7 | 8.9% | +17,240 |
The coalition
Reed against McKay among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who can afford daily costs37% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
- Economy voters35% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.7
- Other issue voters32% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.6
- 2024 voters who skipped 202222% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.1
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Voters who can afford daily costs37% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
- 2024 voters who skipped 202222% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +36.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +43.6 and D +29.4
- Polling average
- D +33.9
- Partisan lean
- D +15.7
- Early vote effect
- R +1.5
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WPRI | 4 | 800 LV | D +34.6 |
| Salve Regina Pell Center/Embold Research | 7 | 815 LV | D +23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 24 | 598 LV | D +20.3 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Reed | McKay | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.6M | $196K |
| Spent | $2.2M | $190K |
| Cash on hand | $3.0M | $7K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $127K | $0 |
The early vote
Rhode Island, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 60,740
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +37.0
- Forecast expected
- D +45.3
- Against expectation
- 8.2 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.