How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Rhode Island Governor
Helena Foulkes vs Ken Block
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Cash weight 2045
$215K in the bank against $264K for Ken Block.
- Early vote weight 1578
Registered Democrats cast 46% of the 60,740 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 8.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Cash weight 2055
$264K in the bank against $215K for Helena Foulkes.
- Early vote weight 1522
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 60,740 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 46% for the other party. That is 8.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Helena Foulkes leads by 10.0 in the forecast and wins 96% of simulations. The cushion is about 42,627 votes; a one point swing is about 2,129 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +3.2 and D +16.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +8.6. Your best recent poll is University of New Hampshire at D +19.2; your worst is Emerson College/WPRI at D +9.7. 5 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Providence, a projected net 27,883 votes; Newport, a projected net 6,547 votes; Bristol, a projected net 5,715 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Kent, R +2.8, 18.0% of the vote; Washington, D +7.1, 15.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Helena Foulkes runs furthest behind in Newport, Washington. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 80% of voters, 46 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.98 points; Women, 54% of voters, 55 to 32, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.71 points; Voters without a degree, 53% of voters, 50 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.63 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Helena Foulkes: Immigration voters 29 to 47, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 46 to 40, Men 45 to 39. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$215K cash against $264K. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 46% of the 60,740 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 8.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.7 points away from Helena Foulkes. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Ken Block's strongest asset
Cash: $264K in the bank against $215K for Helena Foulkes.
- Close the gap
Ken Block trails by 10.0 and wins 4% of simulations. Closing it takes about 21,314 voters switching sides, or 42,627 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +16.5 and D +3.2. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +8.6. Your best recent poll is Emerson College/WPRI at D +9.7; your worst is University of New Hampshire at D +19.2. 5 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Kent, a projected net 2,110 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Kent, R +2.8, 18.0% of the vote; Washington, D +7.1, 15.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ken Block runs furthest behind in Providence, Bristol. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 80% of voters, 39 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.98 points; Women, 54% of voters, 32 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.71 points; Voters without a degree, 53% of voters, 36 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.63 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ken Block: Black voters 11 to 80, Asian and other voters 19 to 70, Health care and Social Security voters 12 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$264K cash against $215K. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 60,740 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 46% for the other party. That is 8.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.7 points toward Ken Block. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Helena Foulkes's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 46% of the 60,740 ballots in Rhode Island so far, against 9% for the other party.
The map for Foulkes
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | D +12.5 | 52.4% | +27,883 |
| Newport | D +17.3 | 8.9% | +6,547 |
| Bristol | D +24.3 | 5.5% | +5,715 |
| Washington | D +7.1 | 15.2% | +4,600 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kent | R +2.8 | 18% | -2,110 |
| Washington | D +7.1 | 15.2% | +4,600 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport | D +17.3 | 8.9% | +6,547 |
| Washington | D +7.1 | 15.2% | +4,600 |
The coalition
Foulkes against Block among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters80% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.0
- Women54% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.7
- Voters without a degree53% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Large counties52% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- 2024 nonvoters and third party voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Men46% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +10.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +16.5 and D +3.2
- Polling average
- D +8.6
- Partisan lean
- D +15.7
- Early vote effect
- R +1.7
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WPRI | 4 | 800 LV | D +9.7 |
| Emerson College for WPRI 12 News | 4 | 800 LV | D +9.7 |
| Salve Regina Pell Center/Embold Research | 7 | 815 LV | D +11.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics (D) | 20 | 800 LV | D +16.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 24 | 598 LV | D +19.2 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Foulkes | Block | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | n/a | n/a |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $215K | $264K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Rhode Island, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 60,740
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +37.0
- Forecast expected
- D +45.3
- Against expectation
- 8.2 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-28Ken Block announced in Warren
East Bay Chamber of Commerce gubernatorial forum; the campaign page lists it as Mon Oct 28 although that date is a Wednesday. Listed on his campaign appearances page. Source
- 2026-10-25Ken Block announced in Warren
Warren Walkabout street festival. Listed on his campaign appearances page. Source
- 2026-10-25Ken Block announced in Narragansett
Conversation with Ken at George's of Galilee. Listed on his campaign appearances page. Source
- 2026-10-24Ken Block announced in North Smithfield
Artisan Fair at the Beef Barn. Listed on his campaign appearances page. Source
- 2026-10-24Ken Block announced in Providence
Latin Expo 2026 at Farm Fresh RI. Listed on his campaign appearances page. Source
- 2026-10-22Ken Block event in Providence
Meet the Candidates at John Hope Settlement House hosted by the Providence Alumnae Chapter of Delta Sigma Theta. Listed on his campaign appearances page. Source
- 2026-10-22Ken Block event in Warwick
Conversation with Ken at Brewed Awakenings. Listed on his campaign appearances page. Source
- 2026-10-20Helena Foulkes debate in Providence
Final televised debate at Rhode Island College hosted by WPRI, with Republican Aaron Guckian also on stage. Source
- 2026-10-20Ken Block debate in Providence
Final televised debate at Rhode Island College hosted by WPRI, with Republican Aaron Guckian also on stage. Source
- 2026-10-18Ken Block event in East Providence
Ice Cream with Ken at Sacred Cow Scoop Shop. Listed on his campaign appearances page. Source
- 2026-10-13Ken Block event in Portsmouth
Conversation with Ken at The Valley Inn. Listed on his campaign appearances page. Source
- 2026-10-12Ken Block event in Woonsocket
Autumnfest Parade at WWII Veterans Memorial Park. Listed on his campaign appearances page. Source