How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Michigan Senate
Abdul El-Sayed vs Mike Rogers
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2569
Raised $45.2M against $20.5M for Mike Rogers.
- Cash weight 2028
$2.6M in the bank against $6.5M for Mike Rogers. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1533
Outside groups spent $57.9M helping Abdul El-Sayed and $117.5M helping Mike Rogers.
- Activity weight 1075
11 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 28 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. 2 stories on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- Money weight 2531
Raised $20.5M against $45.2M for Abdul El-Sayed.
- Cash weight 2072
$6.5M in the bank against $2.6M for Abdul El-Sayed. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1567
Outside groups spent $117.5M helping Mike Rogers and $57.9M helping Abdul El-Sayed.
- Activity weight 10100
5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 11 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $738K in Google political ads this cycle. 2 stories on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Abdul El-Sayed leads by 4.8 in the forecast and wins 83% of simulations. The cushion is about 239,353 votes; a one point swing is about 24,778 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +1.7 and D +11.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +4.4. Your best recent poll is Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) at D +6.5; your worst is Marist University at R +0.2. 23 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Wayne, a projected net 296,557 votes; Oakland, a projected net 112,276 votes; Washtenaw, a projected net 97,369 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Macomb, R +1.8, 8.7% of the vote; Kent, D +3.9, 6.7% of the vote; Saginaw, D +0.6, 1.8% of the vote; Muskegon, D +2.5, 1.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Abdul El-Sayed runs furthest behind in Ottawa, Berrien, Kent. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 79% of voters, 43 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.93 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 74% of voters, 51 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.72 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 57 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.98 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Abdul El-Sayed: Immigration voters 19 to 78, Small counties 34 to 63, Voters who can afford daily costs 42 to 54. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.6M cash against $6.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Abdul El-Sayed. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Mike Rogers's strongest asset
Activity: 5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- An opening
El-Sayed says he is in bed with big pharma, wealthy from trading on congressional relationships, and has a war for everything; the pharma lobbyist version of that attack was rated Pants on Fire. Source
- Close the gap
Mike Rogers trails by 4.8 and wins 17% of simulations. Closing it takes about 119,677 voters switching sides, or 239,353 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.5 and R +1.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +4.4. Your best recent poll is Marist University at R +0.2; your worst is Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) at D +6.5. 23 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Ottawa, a projected net 37,256 votes; Livingston, a projected net 21,853 votes; St. Clair, a projected net 19,712 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Macomb, R +1.8, 8.7% of the vote; Kent, D +3.9, 6.7% of the vote; Saginaw, D +0.6, 1.8% of the vote; Muskegon, D +2.5, 1.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Mike Rogers runs furthest behind in Macomb, Wayne, St. Clair. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 79% of voters, 54 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.93 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 74% of voters, 46 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.72 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 39 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.98 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Mike Rogers: Black voters 11 to 86, Asian and other voters 24 to 72, Health care and Social Security voters 28 to 69. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.5M cash against $2.6M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from Mike Rogers. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Abdul El-Sayed's strongest asset
Activity: 11 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- An opening
Rogers calls Medicare for All outrageously expensive and says El-Sayed would defund police, which he denies; Jewish Democrats and Rogers attack his Israel and AIPAC rhetoric. Source
The map for El-Sayed
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne | D +40.0 | 15% | +296,557 |
| Oakland | D +16.4 | 13.8% | +112,276 |
| Washtenaw | D +47.9 | 4.1% | +97,369 |
| Ingham | D +36.5 | 2.8% | +49,959 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macomb | R +1.8 | 8.7% | -7,717 |
| Kent | D +3.9 | 6.7% | +12,795 |
| Saginaw | D +0.6 | 1.8% | +504 |
| Muskegon | D +2.5 | 1.7% | +2,037 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa | R +23.6 | 3.2% | -37,256 |
| Berrien | R +9.4 | 1.5% | -6,851 |
| Kent | D +3.9 | 6.7% | +12,795 |
The coalition
El-Sayed against Rogers among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters79% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.9
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202474% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Voters who can afford daily costs40% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. Money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for All, with lower living costs and wider health care access. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Rogers calls Medicare for All outrageously expensive and says El-Sayed would defund police, which he denies; Jewish Democrats and Rogers attack his Israel and AIPAC rhetoric. Source
- Strongest coalition. Black voters and independents: a Mitchell poll published October 5 had him at 71 to 9 among Black voters, 46 to 34 among independents and 45.6 to 41.4 overall, and up 50 to 33 among women. Source
- Notable event. Reports of up to $9 million moving from AIPAC's super PAC to a pro-Rogers group after the October 14 deadline. Source
- Fact check exposure. PolitiFact rated his pharma lobbyist attack on Rogers Pants on Fire. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Party and leadership, Pro-Israel
- Main message. Lost manufacturing jobs, high utility and auto insurance costs, and support for ICE and photo ID; he calls El-Sayed's Medicare for All outrageously expensive. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. El-Sayed says he is in bed with big pharma, wealthy from trading on congressional relationships, and has a war for everything; the pharma lobbyist version of that attack was rated Pants on Fire. Source
- Strongest coalition. Men, 51 to 40 in a Mitchell poll published October 5, 2026, with El-Sayed ahead 45.6 to 41.4 overall. Source
- Crossover play. He launched Democrats for Mike Rogers in Detroit on August 20 to court Democrats uneasy with El-Sayed, including Jewish Democrats. Source
- Recent event. Reports that AIPAC's super PAC is moving up to $9 million to a pro-Rogers group after the October 14 deadline. Source
- Track record. He ran about 123,000 votes behind Trump in Michigan in 2024. Source
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Trump world, Pro-Israel
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +4.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.5 and R +1.7
- Polling average
- D +4.4
- Partisan lean
- D +0.1
- Early vote effect
- D +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 0 | 518 LV | D +5.9 |
| Marist University | 0 | 1,025 LV | R +0.2 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 0 | 1,200 LV | D +3.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1 | 798 LV | D +1.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 5 | 1,200 LV | D +2.1 |
| Alliance for a Better Future (R) | 7 | 600 LV | D +0.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 9 | 762 LV | D +2.8 |
| Guidant Polling for Public First Action | 10 | 600 LV | D +3.9 |
| YouGov | 11 | 3,949 LV | D +0.1 |
| Mitchell Research for CBS Detroit | 14 | 682 LV | D +4.0 |
| Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising (D) | 14 | 483 RV | D +5.5 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 15 | 1,085 LV | D +3.0 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| El-Sayed | Rogers | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $45.2M | $20.5M |
| Spent | $12.0M | $14.3M |
| Cash on hand | $2.6M | $6.5M |
| Outside money for | $57.9M | $117.5M |
| Google ads | $0 | $738K |
- Senate Leadership Fund against Abdul El-Sayed$36.2M
- No Going Back PAC against Abdul El-Sayed$29.8M
- WinSenate against Mike Rogers$29.2M
- Americans for Prosperity Action for Mike Rogers$18.5M
- GLCF for Mike Rogers$11.9M
- America PAC against Abdul El-Sayed$6.5M
- TFM against Abdul El-Sayed$4.8M
- Defend the Vote against Mike Rogers$4.6M
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$35.7M
- MAGA Inc., TV ads supporting Rogers, as reported Oct 21 Source$25.0M
The early vote
Michigan, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 986,207
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +35.5
- Forecast expected
- D +33.5
- Against expectation
- 2.0 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-21Jon Stewart host, leans D
Interviewed Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed on The Weekly Show about his closing argument to skeptical Michigan voters. Source
- 2026-10-15Steve Kornacki analyst
Named Oakland County as the key area to watch in the El-Sayed versus Rogers race. Source
- 2026-10-13Laura Ingraham host, leans R
Ran a segment on El-Sayed's campaign and the GOP strategy in Michigan under the line that the only poll that matters is on Election Day. Source
- 2026-10-12Megyn Kelly host, leans R
Argued El-Sayed is doing well because of his hard line on Israel and domestic focus, and called Republican Mike Rogers a 'neocon' whose attacks will not energize the GOP base. Source
- 2026-09-26Bill Maher host, leans other
Responded to Abdul El-Sayed's vow to beat him in a debate by saying he would have El-Sayed on and that his criticism of Islam is about ideas, not people. Source
- 2026-09-25Chuck Todd reporter
Interviewed Abdul El-Sayed on Noosphere, where El-Sayed said he would go on Bill Maher's show and win the debate. Source
- 2026-09-22Larry Sabato analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Michigan Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Source
- 2026-09-19Hasan Piker influencer, leans D
Endorsed and campaigned with El-Sayed; in September the El-Sayed campaign publicly disagreed with remarks Piker made in an Axios interview. Source
- 2026-09-03Tucker Carlson podcaster, leans other
Said he would not vote for Republican Mike Rogers and praised Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's campaign, in a conversation with Saagar Enjeti. Source
- 2026-09-03Saagar Enjeti host, leans other
As a guest on The Tucker Carlson Show he praised El-Sayed's populist message and predicted he would likely beat Mike Rogers. Source
- 2026-09Tucker Carlson podcaster, leans other
In his newsletter, defended El-Sayed's 2021 remarks on post 9/11 U.S. military action after the Rogers campaign attacked them. Source
- 2026-08-25Laura Ingraham host, leans R
Called Abdul El-Sayed 'weird' and obsessed with sex over his comments about JD Vance's children and mocked his posture. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-11-03Pete Buttigieg announced in Detroit
Announced Election Day stop in Detroit tied to the Michigan Senate race. Source
- 2026-10-25Donald Trump announced in Port Huron
Sunday rally at McMorran Place Arena organized by Trump 47 Committee. Source
- 2026-10-24Barack Obama announced in Detroit
Rally with Michigan Democratic nominees. Source
- 2026-10-24Abdul El-Sayed announced in Detroit
Scheduled rally with former President Barack Obama and governor nominee Jocelyn Benson from 5 to 7:30 p.m. on the first day of early in person voting. Source
- 2026-10-21Abdul El-Sayed debate in Southfield
Second and final debate between El-Sayed and Rogers at WXYZ Channel 7. Source
- 2026-10-21Mike Rogers debate in Southfield
Second and final debate between El-Sayed and Rogers at WXYZ Channel 7. Source
- 2026-10-20Abdul El-Sayed event in Detroit
Separate appearances of about 25 minutes each before the Detroit Economic Club, answering the same questions. Source
- 2026-10-20Mike Rogers event in Detroit
Separate appearances of about 25 minutes each before the Detroit Economic Club, answering the same questions. Source
- 2026-10-16Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rally in Rochester
Ocasio-Cortez was scheduled to rally for El-Sayed at Oakland University. Source
- 2026-10-15Abdul El-Sayed town hall in Escanaba
Lunchtime It Shouldn't Be This Hard Tour event with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the U.P. State Fairgrounds, about 500 attending. Source
- 2026-10-15Abdul El-Sayed town hall in Iron Mountain
Town hall with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez drawing a few hundred people. Source
- 2026-10-15Abdul El-Sayed rally in Marquette
Largest Upper Peninsula stop, at Vandament Arena at Northern Michigan University with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, more than 1,200 attending. Source