How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
South Carolina Governor
Jermaine Johnson vs Alan Wilson
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2526
Raised $867K against $2.5M for Alan Wilson.
- Cash weight 207
$136K in the bank against $1.7M for Alan Wilson.
- Activity weight 1025
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $136K against $1.7M.
- Money weight 2574
Raised $2.5M against $867K for Jermaine Johnson.
- Cash weight 2093
$1.7M in the bank against $136K for Jermaine Johnson.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Jermaine Johnson trails by 5.6 and wins 19% of simulations. Closing it takes about 57,100 voters switching sides, or 114,200 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +14.1 and D +3.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +10.3. Your best recent poll is On Point Polling at R +8.6; your worst is Trafalgar Group (R) at R +14.9. 5 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Richland, a projected net 68,943 votes; Charleston, a projected net 31,361 votes; Orangeburg, a projected net 11,543 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: York, R +5.1, 5.7% of the vote; Berkeley, R +2.9, 4.3% of the vote; Beaufort, R +4.9, 4.1% of the vote; Dorchester, D +2.1, 3.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jermaine Johnson runs furthest behind in Oconee, Pickens, Greenville. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 46 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.25 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 58% of voters, 53 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.88 points; Voters without a degree, 56% of voters, 47 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.80 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jermaine Johnson: Immigration voters 16 to 84, White voters 32 to 66, Voters who can afford daily costs 38 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$136K cash against $1.7M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Alan Wilson's strongest asset
Cash: $1.7M in the bank against $136K for Jermaine Johnson.
- Protect the lead
Alan Wilson leads by 5.6 in the forecast and wins 81% of simulations. The cushion is about 114,200 votes; a one point swing is about 10,196 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +3.2 and R +14.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +10.3. Your best recent poll is Trafalgar Group (R) at R +14.9; your worst is On Point Polling at R +8.6. 5 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Horry, a projected net 35,999 votes; Greenville, a projected net 32,754 votes; Lexington, a projected net 31,052 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: York, R +5.1, 5.7% of the vote; Berkeley, R +2.9, 4.3% of the vote; Beaufort, R +4.9, 4.1% of the vote; Dorchester, D +2.1, 3.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Alan Wilson runs furthest behind in Sumter, Greenwood, Dorchester. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 54 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.25 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 58% of voters, 47 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.88 points; Voters without a degree, 56% of voters, 51 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.80 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Alan Wilson: Black voters 18 to 79, Health care and Social Security voters 35 to 65, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 35 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.7M cash against $136K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Jermaine Johnson's strongest asset
Money: Raised $867K against $2.5M for Alan Wilson.
The map for Johnson
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richland | D +43.5 | 7.8% | +68,943 |
| Charleston | D +17.5 | 8.8% | +31,361 |
| Orangeburg | D +37.2 | 1.5% | +11,543 |
| Sumter | D +23.3 | 1.8% | +8,621 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| York | R +5.1 | 5.7% | -5,903 |
| Berkeley | R +2.9 | 4.3% | -2,597 |
| Beaufort | R +4.9 | 4.1% | -4,143 |
| Dorchester | D +2.1 | 3% | +1,296 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oconee | R +45.4 | 1.6% | -15,135 |
| Pickens | R +46.1 | 2.4% | -22,700 |
| Greenville | R +15.4 | 10.4% | -32,754 |
The coalition
Johnson against Wilson among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202465% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Voters without a degree56% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Women52% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- White voters69% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who can afford daily costs42% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +5.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +3.2 and R +14.1
- Polling average
- R +10.3
- Partisan lean
- R +16.6
- Early vote effect
- R +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 0 | 294 LV | R +8.6 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 0 | 1,095 LV | R +14.9 |
| National Public Affairs | 0 | 604 LV | R +9.1 |
| FITSNews/Rick Quinn | 12 | 638 RV | R +10.3 |
| Resonance Media | 12 | 638 RV | R +10.2 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Johnson | Wilson | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $867K | $2.5M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $136K | $1.7M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
South Carolina, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 389,672
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +20.9
- Forecast expected
- R +20.3
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-19Jermaine Johnson event in Columbia
Cast his ballot in Columbia on the first day of early voting before heading to the Grand Strand. Source
- 2026-10-10JB Pritzker tour stop in Charleston, Manning, Columbia
Statewide swing that ended with a keynote at the state NAACP convention. Source
- 2026-10-06Jermaine Johnson debate in Columbia
Televised governor debate with Alan Wilson scheduled at the WIS studios. Source
- 2026-10-06Alan Wilson debate in Columbia
Televised governor debate with Jermaine Johnson scheduled at the WIS studios. Source