How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Iowa Senate
Josh Turek vs Ashley Hinson
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2560
Raised $20.2M against $13.5M for Ashley Hinson.
- Cash weight 2025
$2.4M in the bank against $6.9M for Ashley Hinson. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1549
Outside groups spent $66.1M helping Josh Turek and $69.2M helping Ashley Hinson.
- Early vote weight 1568
Registered Democrats cast 51% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 4.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1075
12 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 3 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $3.1M in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2540
Raised $13.5M against $20.2M for Josh Turek.
- Cash weight 2075
$6.9M in the bank against $2.4M for Josh Turek. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1551
Outside groups spent $69.2M helping Ashley Hinson and $66.1M helping Josh Turek.
- Early vote weight 1532
Registered Republicans cast 32% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 51% for the other party. That is 4.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 10100
4 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 4 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $272K in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Josh Turek leads by 0.0 in the forecast and wins 48% of simulations. The cushion is about 411 votes; a one point swing is about 6,856 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +6.5 and D +7.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +1.2. Your best recent poll is Marist College at D +5.7; your worst is CNN/SSRS at R +3.0. 20 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Polk, a projected net 55,081 votes; Johnson, a projected net 29,629 votes; Linn, a projected net 18,572 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Black Hawk, D +9.8, 3.9% of the vote; Dallas, R +1.5, 3.6% of the vote; Dubuque, D +2.3, 3.2% of the vote; Pottawattamie, R +3.5, 2.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Josh Turek runs furthest behind in Dallas, Johnson, Sioux. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 90% of voters, 47 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.50 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 71% of voters, 48 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.56 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 56 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.05 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Josh Turek: Immigration voters 22 to 75, Small counties 40 to 58, Voters who can afford daily costs 41 to 56. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.4M cash against $6.9M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 51% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 4.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.0 points away from Josh Turek. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Ashley Hinson's strongest asset
Activity: 4 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- An opening
Main message: Trump endorsed Republican running on taxes, veterans and costs, with One Nation ads on ending the estate tax and her own ads attacking Turek since June. Source
- Close the gap
Ashley Hinson trails by 0.0 and wins 52% of simulations. Closing it takes about 206 voters switching sides, or 411 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.2 and R +6.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +1.2. Your best recent poll is CNN/SSRS at R +3.0; your worst is Marist College at D +5.7. 20 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Sioux, a projected net 10,484 votes; Plymouth, a projected net 4,587 votes; Marion, a projected net 4,056 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Black Hawk, D +9.8, 3.9% of the vote; Dallas, R +1.5, 3.6% of the vote; Dubuque, D +2.3, 3.2% of the vote; Pottawattamie, R +3.5, 2.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ashley Hinson runs furthest behind in Des Moines, Jasper, Woodbury. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 90% of voters, 51 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.50 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 71% of voters, 49 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.56 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 41 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.05 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ashley Hinson: Health care and Social Security voters 31 to 66, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 31 to 66, Corruption voters 32 to 65. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.9M cash against $2.4M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 32% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 51% for the other party. That is 4.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.0 points toward Ashley Hinson. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Josh Turek's strongest asset
Activity: 12 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- An opening
Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: attendance. Fox counts 261 missed Iowa House votes from January 12 to May 3, 2026 while he raised money out of state, and the Senate Leadership Fund says he is only showing up for himself. His campaign says Hinson also skipped work for a fundraiser. Source
The map for Turek
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polk | D +25.7 | 15.6% | +55,081 |
| Johnson | D +41.1 | 5.3% | +29,629 |
| Linn | D +18.0 | 7.5% | +18,572 |
| Scott | D +12.6 | 5.4% | +9,286 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black Hawk | D +9.8 | 3.9% | +5,244 |
| Dallas | R +1.5 | 3.6% | -730 |
| Dubuque | D +2.3 | 3.2% | +1,020 |
| Pottawattamie | R +3.5 | 2.6% | -1,255 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | R +1.5 | 3.6% | -730 |
| Johnson | D +41.1 | 5.3% | +29,629 |
| Sioux | R +66.2 | 1.2% | -10,484 |
The coalition
Turek against Hinson among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters90% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.5
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202471% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree57% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties47% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Voters who can afford daily costs39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message: electability and personal story. He is a Paralympic gold medalist who won a Trump district, says the race is about having a senator fighting for the people of Iowa, and pitches himself to independents and moderate Republicans. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: attendance. Fox counts 261 missed Iowa House votes from January 12 to May 3, 2026 while he raised money out of state, and the Senate Leadership Fund says he is only showing up for himself. His campaign says Hinson also skipped work for a fundraiser. Source
- Second line of attack: Republicans call him Chuck Schumer's puppet, and Schumer's leadership PAC did give him the maximum. Source
- Strongest coalition: a broad small donor base the campaign puts at nearly 53,000 donors, and a record of winning a Trump district. He outraised Hinson in the second quarter, $2.81M to $2.06M. Source
- Notable recent event: Senate Majority PAC added $17M in fall ads on July 23 on top of a $13.4M reservation. As of August 24 Cook and Fox call the race a toss up, Inside Elections tilts Republican and Sabato leans Hinson. Source
- Cash gap: Hinson held $6,749,491 to his $2,362,314 on June 30, 2026. Source
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Ideological groups, Small donors
- Main message: Trump endorsed Republican running on taxes, veterans and costs, with One Nation ads on ending the estate tax and her own ads attacking Turek since June. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: personal enrichment. Senate Majority PAC says her net worth grew by $8M in Washington and that she backed a tax break for her family business; Democrats say she kept private insurance agency stock. Her campaign calls it a shameless lie. Source
- Second vulnerability: health costs and Medicaid after her vote for the 2025 law, the core of more than $30M in Democratic reservations. Source
- Strongest coalition: party infrastructure and cash. She had $6,749,491 on June 30 and the NRSC committed $29M. Iowa has about an 8 point Republican registration edge and Trump won it by 13 in 2024. Source
- Notable recent event: Bleeding Heartland reported on August 24 that Republicans seem increasingly worried, with Cook calling the race a toss up; she has since called the Iran war a political liability. Source
- Pipeline exposure: Rastetter and Summit's CEO hosted an August 5 fundraiser for her while 78 percent of Iowans opposed eminent domain for pipelines in a 2023 poll. Source
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Agribusiness, Insurance and tort
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- Even
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +7.2 and R +6.5
- Polling average
- D +1.2
- Partisan lean
- R +11.9
- Early vote effect
- R +2.0
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 0 | 1,094 LV | R +0.5 |
| co/efficient (R) | 0 | 863 LV | D +1.0 |
| On Point Polling | 0 | 491 LV | D +4.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 0 | 1,200 LV | R +1.9 |
| Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies | 2 | 602 LV | D +2.0 |
| YouGov | 3 | 2,245 LV | D +0.2 |
| National Public Affairs | 3 | 678 LV | R +2.1 |
| Marist College | 4 | 512 LV | D +0.9 |
| Emerson College/Nexstar Media | 9 | 650 LV | R +1.2 |
| CNN/SSRS | 10 | 801 LV | R +3.0 |
| Suffolk University | 11 | 500 LV | D +2.6 |
| New York Times/Siena | 14 | 606 LV | R +1.7 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Turek | Hinson | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $20.2M | $13.5M |
| Spent | $3.9M | $8.5M |
| Cash on hand | $2.4M | $6.9M |
| Outside money for | $66.1M | $69.2M |
| Google ads | $3.1M | $272K |
- Senate Leadership Fund against Josh Turek$35.1M
- WinSenate against Ashley Hinson$28.3M
- Americans for Prosperity Action for Ashley Hinson$11.3M
- Fight On Iowa for Ashley Hinson$9.3M
- VoteVets against Ashley Hinson$7.9M
- Lower Costs Now for Josh Turek$5.8M
- AB PAC for Josh Turek$5.0M
- Win It Back PAC against Josh Turek$3.8M
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$30.6M
- All advertisers, projected ad spending through Election Day Source$195.0M
- Senate Leadership Fund, nearly all against Turek, more than, pledged to reach 53,000,000 Source$35.0M
- Senate Leadership Fund, new IE filings Oct 21 to 22 Source$511K
The early vote
Iowa, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 207,774
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +18.9
- Forecast expected
- D +23.6
- Against expectation
- 4.7 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-21Tom Llamas host
The NBC Nightly News anchor interviewed Republican Ashley Hinson in western Iowa and then Democrat Josh Turek on the same day as part of his midterm interview series. Source
- 2026-10-20Karl Rove commentator, leans R
Predicted Republican Ashley Hinson will win. Source
- 2026-10-20David Axelrod commentator, leans D
Called the Iowa Senate race a coin flip. Source
- 2026-10-17Garrett Haake reporter
Interviewed Democratic nominee Josh Turek and GOP strategist David Kochel on how Iowa became a battleground. Source
- 2026-10-16Harry Enten analyst
Named Iowa among six toss up Senate races in his big siren segment. Source
- 2026-10-13Amanda Krenz host
Co-moderated the Nexstar Iowa Senate debate from WHO-TV. Source
- 2026-10-13Tim Seaman host
Co-moderated the Nexstar Iowa Senate debate between Hinson and Turek. Source
- 2026-10-07Kay Henderson host
Moderated the Iowa Press debate between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek. Source
- 2026-10-07Stephen Gruber-Miller reporter
Served as a panelist questioning Hinson and Turek at the Iowa Press Senate debate. Source
- 2026-10-07Erin Murphy reporter
Served as a panelist questioning Hinson and Turek at the Iowa Press Senate debate. Source
- 2026-09-22Larry Sabato analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Iowa Senate race from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Source
- 2026-06-08Karl Rove commentator, leans R
On the Journal Editorial Report said Democrats got the better candidate in Josh Turek, though Hinson is strong. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-11-01Donald Trump announced in Dubuque
Fix: city now named as Dubuque. Announced Sunday rally, doors 2:30 p.m., Trump speaks at 6 p.m. local time, venue not yet announced, no candidates named in the report. Source
- 2026-10-22Donald Trump announced in Sioux City
RNC announced rally at Sioux Gateway Airport, remarks set for 6 p.m. today. Source
- 2026-10-22Ashley Hinson rally in Sioux City
Hinson spoke with Sen. Chuck Grassley and governor nominee Zach Lahn at President Trump's rally near a hangar at Sioux Gateway Airport. Source
- 2026-10-18Josh Turek rally in Ottumwa
Rally with Wapello County Democrats and former Sen. Tom Harkin, followed by door knocking around the city. Source
- 2026-10-17Josh Turek tour stop in Davenport
Turek visited the Freight House Farmers Market and launched a canvass at a west Davenport field office, his campaign said. Source
- 2026-10-17Josh Turek tour stop in Dubuque
Turek visited the Dubuque Farmers Market and a canvass launch, his campaign said. Source
- 2026-10-17Josh Turek tour stop in Independence
Turek joined a canvass launch in Independence, his campaign said. Source
- 2026-10-15Josh Turek tour stop in Mason City
Turek kicked off his At the Buzzer Tour with a get out the vote event, his campaign said. Source
- 2026-10-15Josh Turek tour stop in Clear Lake
Turek heard from parents of children with disabilities about rising costs, his campaign said. Source
- 2026-10-15Josh Turek tour stop in Elkader
Turek met with voters in Elkader on the first day of his At the Buzzer Tour, his campaign said. Source
- 2026-10-13Josh Turek debate in Des Moines
Second Senate debate between Hinson and Turek, produced by Nexstar from the WHO TV studios. Source
- 2026-10-13Ashley Hinson debate in Des Moines
Second Senate debate between Hinson and Turek, produced by Nexstar from the WHO TV studios. Source