How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Iowa Governor
Rob Sand vs Zach Lahn
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2567
Raised $54.0M against $27.0M for Zach Lahn.
- Early vote weight 1568
Registered Democrats cast 51% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 4.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1050
19 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- Money weight 2533
Raised $27.0M against $54.0M for Rob Sand.
- Early vote weight 1532
Registered Republicans cast 32% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 51% for the other party. That is 4.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1050
9 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Rob Sand leads by 10.2 in the forecast and wins 98% of simulations. The cushion is about 140,570 votes; a one point swing is about 6,864 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +3.2 and D +17.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +6.6. Your best recent poll is Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies at D +11.0; your worst is On Point Polling at D +4.7. 13 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Polk, a projected net 82,351 votes; Johnson, a projected net 43,532 votes; Linn, a projected net 35,830 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Pottawattamie, D +8.4, 2.5% of the vote; Woodbury, R +3.0, 2.5% of the vote; Warren, D +8.1, 1.9% of the vote; Clinton, D +5.8, 1.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Rob Sand runs furthest behind in Sioux, Marion, Dallas. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 90% of voters, 52 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.50 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 71% of voters, 52 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.57 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 60 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.09 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Rob Sand: Immigration voters 26 to 74, Small counties 43 to 55, Voters who can afford daily costs 49 to 51. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 51% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 4.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.9 points away from Rob Sand. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Zach Lahn's strongest asset
Activity: 9 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
Zach Lahn trails by 10.2 and wins 2% of simulations. Closing it takes about 70,285 voters switching sides, or 140,570 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +17.4 and D +3.2. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +6.6. Your best recent poll is On Point Polling at D +4.7; your worst is Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies at D +11.0. 13 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Sioux, a projected net 10,762 votes; Plymouth, a projected net 5,018 votes; Lyon, a projected net 3,394 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Pottawattamie, D +8.4, 2.5% of the vote; Woodbury, R +3.0, 2.5% of the vote; Warren, D +8.1, 1.9% of the vote; Clinton, D +5.8, 1.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Zach Lahn runs furthest behind in Warren, Pottawattamie, Cerro Gordo. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 90% of voters, 46 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.50 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 71% of voters, 48 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.57 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 40 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.09 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Zach Lahn: 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 22 to 74, Independents 24 to 71, Moderates 25 to 71. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 32% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 51% for the other party. That is 4.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.9 points toward Zach Lahn. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Rob Sand's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 51% of the 207,774 ballots in Iowa so far, against 32% for the other party.
The map for Sand
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polk | D +38.4 | 15.6% | +82,351 |
| Johnson | D +59.2 | 5.4% | +43,532 |
| Linn | D +34.8 | 7.5% | +35,830 |
| Story | D +33.9 | 3.2% | +14,697 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pottawattamie | D +8.4 | 2.5% | +2,944 |
| Woodbury | R +3.0 | 2.5% | -1,025 |
| Warren | D +8.1 | 1.9% | +2,136 |
| Clinton | D +5.8 | 1.4% | +1,102 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sioux | R +67.5 | 1.2% | -10,762 |
| Marion | R +19.6 | 1.2% | -3,140 |
| Dallas | D +13.9 | 3.6% | +6,948 |
The coalition
Sand against Lahn among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters90% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.5
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202471% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters without a degree57% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties47% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Voters who can afford daily costs38% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +10.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +17.4 and D +3.2
- Polling average
- D +6.6
- Partisan lean
- R +11.9
- Early vote effect
- R +1.9
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R) | 0 | 863 LV | D +8.0 |
| On Point Polling | 0 | 491 LV | D +4.7 |
| Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies | 2 | 602 LV | D +11.0 |
| YouGov | 3 | 2,245 LV | D +5.1 |
| National Public Affairs | 3 | 678 LV | D +6.0 |
| Marist College | 4 | 512 LV | D +4.8 |
| Emerson College/Nexstar Media | 9 | 650 LV | D +4.8 |
| CNN/SSRS | 10 | 801 LV | D +7.9 |
| Suffolk University | 11 | 500 LV | D +10.2 |
| New York Times/Siena | 14 | 606 LV | D +10.3 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 17 | 1,008 LV | D +8.7 |
| Marist University | 25 | 1,050 RV | D +9.6 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Sand | Lahn | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $54.0M | $27.0M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | n/a | n/a |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
- Right Direction PAC, RGA linked, contributions to Lahn July 15 to Oct 14 Source$11.8M
- Democratic Governors Association, contributions to Sand in latest reports Source$5.5M
The early vote
Iowa, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 207,774
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +18.9
- Forecast expected
- D +23.6
- Against expectation
- 4.7 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-21Kay Henderson host
Moderated the Iowa PBS governor debate between Zach Lahn and Rob Sand. Source
- 2026-09-03Kyle Kondik analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the open Iowa governor race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-11-01Donald Trump announced in Dubuque
Fix: city now named as Dubuque. Announced Sunday rally, doors 2:30 p.m., Trump speaks at 6 p.m. local time, venue not yet announced, no candidates named in the report. Source
- 2026-10-27Rob Sand announced in Cedar Rapids
Third scheduled debate, hosted by KCRG TV9 and The Gazette. Source
- 2026-10-27Zach Lahn announced in Cedar Rapids
Third scheduled debate, hosted by KCRG TV9 and The Gazette. Source
- 2026-10-26Zach Lahn announced in Pella
Marion County get out the vote rally. Listed on his campaign events page. Source
- 2026-10-26Zach Lahn announced in Newton
Jasper County get out the vote rally. Listed on his campaign events page. Source
- 2026-10-26Zach Lahn announced in Ames
Story County town hall at Torrent Brewing Company. Listed on his campaign events page. Source
- 2026-10-24Zach Lahn announced in Decorah
Winneshiek County meet and greet. Listed on his campaign events page. Source
- 2026-10-24Zach Lahn announced in Waukon
Allamakee County meet and greet. Listed on his campaign events page. Source
- 2026-10-24Zach Lahn announced in Dubuque
Dubuque County meet and greet. Listed on his campaign events page. Source
- 2026-10-23Zach Lahn event in Forest City
Winnebago County meet and greet listed on his campaign events page for 1 PM. Source
- 2026-10-23Zach Lahn announced in Clear Lake
Cerro Gordo County meet and greet at the Surf Music Experience Center with special guest Joe Mitchell. Listed on his campaign events page. Source
- 2026-10-22Zach Lahn rally in Sioux City
Spoke at the Trump rally at a hangar at Sioux Gateway Airport alongside Sen. Chuck Grassley and Senate candidate Ashley Hinson. Source