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Senate · Montana · open seat

Montana Senate

Seth Bodnar, independent vs Kurt Alme

ForecastR +19.6

Independent<1%

Republican>99%

RatingSafe R

Full forecast

Brief me as

Neutral view. Pick a side and the War Room briefs you as that campaign's operative.

Vital signs

Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity

IndependentSeth BodnarStrained

Money weight 2562
Raised $4.7M against $2.9M for Kurt Alme.
Cash weight 2041
$999K in the bank against $1.5M for Kurt Alme. As of 06/30/2026.
Air cover weight 1569
Outside groups spent $11.7M helping Seth Bodnar and $5.2M helping Kurt Alme.
Activity weight 1025
$23K in Google political ads this cycle.

RepublicanKurt AlmeStrained

Money weight 2538
Raised $2.9M against $4.7M for Seth Bodnar.
Cash weight 2059
$1.5M in the bank against $999K for Seth Bodnar. As of 06/30/2026.
Air cover weight 1531
Outside groups spent $5.2M helping Kurt Alme and $11.7M helping Seth Bodnar.
Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $104K in Google political ads this cycle.

How each side wins

From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots

If you work for Seth Bodnar

Close the gap
Seth Bodnar trails by 19.6 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 55,401 voters switching sides, or 110,803 more net votes from new turnout.
The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +25.9 and R +13.2. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
The polls
The polls page average is D +6.3. Your best recent poll is Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar (D) at D +12.3; your worst is American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local at D +0.7. 5 polls in the last 30 days.
Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Missoula, a projected net 5,917 votes; Silver Bow, a projected net 739 votes; Glacier, a projected net 405 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Missoula, D +8.8, 11.9% of the vote; Gallatin, R +6.6, 11.5% of the vote; Lewis and Clark, R +6.8, 7.0% of the vote; Silver Bow, D +4.2, 3.1% of the vote.
Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Seth Bodnar runs furthest behind in Missoula, Gallatin, Lake. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 71% of voters, 31 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.54 points; Midsize counties, 61% of voters, 32 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.05 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 34 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Seth Bodnar: Immigration voters 12 to 80, Small counties 25 to 58, Men 26 to 56. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
The money
$999K cash against $1.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Seth Bodnar. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
Kurt Alme's strongest asset
Cash: $1.5M in the bank against $999K for Seth Bodnar.

If you work for Kurt Alme

Protect the lead
Kurt Alme leads by 19.6 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 110,803 votes; a one point swing is about 2,827 voters changing sides.
The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +13.2 and R +25.9. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
The polls
The polls page average is D +6.3. Your best recent poll is American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local at D +0.7; your worst is Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar (D) at D +12.3. 5 polls in the last 30 days.
Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Flathead, a projected net 18,386 votes; Yellowstone, a projected net 16,698 votes; Ravalli, a projected net 10,433 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Missoula, D +8.8, 11.9% of the vote; Gallatin, R +6.6, 11.5% of the vote; Lewis and Clark, R +6.8, 7.0% of the vote; Silver Bow, D +4.2, 3.1% of the vote.
Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Kurt Alme runs furthest behind in Custer, Lincoln, Fergus. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 71% of voters, 51 to 31, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.54 points; Midsize counties, 61% of voters, 46 to 32, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.05 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 46 to 34, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Kurt Alme: Asian and other voters 27 to 48, Independents 35 to 48, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 34 to 46. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
The money
$1.5M cash against $999K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Kurt Alme. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
Seth Bodnar's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $11.7M helping Seth Bodnar and $5.2M helping Kurt Alme.

The map for Bodnar

County projections from the forecast

Vote banksWhere the biggest net margins come from

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Missoula	I +8.8	11.9%	+5,917
Silver Bow	I +4.2	3.1%	+739
Glacier	I +8.5	0.8%	+405
Deer Lodge	I +3.7	0.9%	+183

BattlegroundsLarge counties within 12 points

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Missoula	I +8.8	11.9%	+5,917
Gallatin	R +6.6	11.5%	-4,299
Lewis and Clark	R +6.8	7%	-2,678
Silver Bow	I +4.2	3.1%	+739

Behind the 2024 mapRunning furthest behind the last presidential vote

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Missoula	I +8.8	11.9%	+5,917
Gallatin	R +6.6	11.5%	-4,299
Lake	R +22.8	2.8%	-3,659

The coalition

Bodnar against Alme among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates

Swing groups

Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202471% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
3151
Midsize counties61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
3246
Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
3446
Women52% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
3246

Weakest groups

Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
1280
Small counties39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
2558
Men48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
2656

BodnarAlme

Scouting report

From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source

Seth Bodnar

No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.

Kurt Alme

No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.

The forecast

Margin over recent runs

Now: R +19.6
8 in 10 land between: R +13.2 and R +25.9
Polling average: I +6.3
Partisan lean: R +19.1
Early vote effect: I +0.3

Recent polls

Last 45 days

Pollster	Days ago	Sample	Result
Quantus Insights	0	667 LV	I +7.2
Peak Insights (R)	3	500 LV	I +2.6
Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar (D)	7	405 LV	I +12.3
American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local	21	600 RV	I +0.7
Aspect Strategic (I)	30	715 LV	I +2.0
Quantus Insights	36	625 LV	I +4.7
Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics	38	845 RV	I +6.9