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Watchdog file · IA

Ashley Hinson

Republican, running for U.S. Senate. Now U.S. House IA-2.

Tier 2 compactCook: Toss Up; Sabato: Toss-up; IE: Tilt RnomineeResearch priority 2
Money ties on file21
Researched decisions60 more from office and committees
Interest blocs7
Compiled2026-10-25

Subject: Ashley Hinson, Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa, 2026, U.S. Representative for IA-2 Compiled: October 25, 2026 for the On Point Politics watchdog database, onpointpolitics.us Data cutoff: October 24, 2026. The latest candidate figures found are second quarter 2026 FEC reports through June 30, 2026. Next scheduled data drop: FEC pre-general report covering through October 14, 2026, not found in this pass, then the post-general report due December 3, 2026.

Bottom line up front

Hinson is the party's candidate with the cash. She raised $10,262,866 through June 30, 2026 and held $6,749,491, nearly three times Josh Turek's cash, per Little Village on July 17, 2026, littlevillagemag.com. The NRSC committed $29 million to help her and One Nation planned $11 million.

Four interests combine money with a decision she would touch:

  1. Senate Republican leadership. The NRSC, the Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation carry her air war. The decision is the Senate majority in January 2027.
  2. Agribusiness and the carbon pipeline. Bruce Rastetter, founder of Summit Agricultural Group, gives and raises for her. Summit's pipeline is the most unpopular project in Iowa farm politics, and she has no public position on it in sources read.
  3. Her own holdings. Democrats say her household kept $1 million to $5 million of private insurance agency stock while she backs a narrower stock bill. Her campaign calls the attack a lie. The decision is a congressional ownership ban.
  4. Health care. She voted for the 2025 law that Democrats say cut Medicaid, which is the center of more than $30 million in Senate Majority PAC reservations against her.

Committee structure and treasurer

The roster lists her House FEC candidate ID, H0IA01174. The Senate committee name, ID and treasurer were not verified. Legis1 reported on June 2, 2026 that a joint fundraising committee funded by GOP leadership PACs supports her, without names, legis1.com. She raised nearly $1.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 and had nearly $5.2 million at year end, per the Cedar Rapids Gazette, thegazette.com. She raised $2,375,039 in the first quarter and $2,059,828 in the second.

Senate Republican leadership

Documented. The NRSC committed $29 million, per Scripps on June 2, 2026, abc15.com. One Nation, a sister group of the Senate Leadership Fund, planned $11 million in ads on the estate tax, veterans and costs. The Senate Leadership Fund flew an anti-Turek banner at the State Fair, per Bleeding Heartland on August 24, 2026, bleedingheartland.com. Trump and Joni Ernst endorsed her, Ernst on January 10, 2026, per Ballotpedia News, news.ballotpedia.org.

Inference: Leadership groups, not individual donors, are her largest source of support. Their ask is a reliable Senate vote.

Agribusiness and the carbon pipeline

Documented. Bleeding Heartland reports that Rastetter, a figure behind the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline, has donated to Hinson and is helping her raise from other large donors. An Iowa Democratic Party release of August 11, 2026 relays Iowa Starting Line: Rastetter and Summit CEO Justin Kirchhoff hosted an August 5 fundraiser for her and together have given nearly $60,000 to her committees since 2019, iowademocrats.org. That figure is Secondary because the underlying report was not read. The same release cites a March 2023 Iowa Poll finding 78 percent of Iowans opposed eminent domain for pipelines.

What they want. A path for the pipeline and federal carbon capture support.

Inference: This is the clearest case in the file of a bloc with money and no stated position. Her primary rival Jim Carlin used it against her and still took just under 26 percent.

Own finances and disclosure history

A Heartland Signal report relayed by the Iowa Democratic Party on June 12, 2026 says her household net worth rose from at most $1.6 million before office to as much as $8 million by 2024. It says her husband sold his stake in the Elliott Hartman Agency to a private equity platform for more than $1 million within months of her taking office, and the household kept $1 million to $5 million in private stock, insurancenewsnet.com. A second release on July 6, 2026 relays MeidasTouch, iowademocrats.org. Her campaign told KCAU on June 16 that this was a shameless lie from partisan hacks. It said the couple sold individual stocks and hold ETFs and mutual funds, while her husband retains private stock in the business. Status Contested. Her own disclosure was not read.

Enforcement and controversies

  • No FEC or House Ethics matter against Hinson was found in sources read. She sits on the House Ethics Committee per the roster.
  • Senate Majority PAC ads on August 24 say she missed nearly 200 votes and backed a tax break for her family business. Her response to those specific claims was not found.
  • Turek's campaign says she skipped part of a June 24 defense markup for a fundraiser, per Fox News, foxnews.com.

Deal table

InterestMoney inAskLeverStakeDecision date
Senate GOP leadershipNRSC $29M committed; One Nation $11MSenate majorityOrganizing voteSenate controlJanuary 2027
Agribusiness and pipelineRastetter and Kirchhoff nearly $60K since 2019, secondaryPipeline and carbon creditsFederal carbon policyNot quantified2027 to 2028
Her household holdingsNot a donorNarrow stock rulesOwnership ban vote$1M to $5M private stock, contested2027 to 2028
Health careNot measuredMedicaid policyReconciliation votesNot quantified2027 to 2028

Levers and calendar

DecisionWho holds it nowWhenWhich donors care
Stock trading and ownership banCongress2027 to 2028Ethics groups
Carbon capture and pipelinesCongress, regulators2027 to 2028Rastetter, Summit
MedicaidCongress2027 to 2028Health care interests
TariffsPresident, CongressOngoingAgribusiness
FY2027 spending billsHouse Appropriations, her current seatThrough December 2026Defense, agriculture

Calendar. November 3, 2026 election. She keeps her House Appropriations seat until January 3, 2027. FEC post-general report December 3, 2026. Senate organizing vote January 2027.

What we could not verify

  • Senate committee ID, treasurer, and the joint fundraising committee's name.
  • Third quarter and pre-general totals.
  • Top PACs and individual donors with amounts; Legis1 relays OpenSecrets industries, finance, insurance and real estate, health care, lawyers and lobbyists, without amounts.
  • The Iowa Starting Line report on Rastetter; the Heartland Signal and MeidasTouch reports; her House disclosures.
  • Bodies not read: iowademocrats.org and telegraphherald.com and bluewaterhealthyliving.com and punchbowl.news

Every money tie

21 rows, biggest first. Running totals are shaded and should not be added to their parts.
WhoAmountIntoInterestDateStatusSource
National Republican Senatorial CommitteeParty$29.0MAshley HinsonParty and leadershipas of 2026-06-02Confirmedabc15.comCommitment to help her; vehicle mix not stated
Senate Majority PACIndependent expenditure against$17.0MAshley HinsonOpponent contextannounced 2026-07-23Confirmedcarrollspaper.comPrices, Medicaid cuts, tariffs, Iran war
Senate Majority PACIndependent expenditure against$13.4MAshley HinsonOpponent contextreserved May 2026Confirmedcarrollspaper.comAlso in Legis1; reservations are not binding
One NationIndependent expenditure for$11.0MAshley HinsonParty and leadershipas of 2026-08-24Confirmedbleedingheartland.comSenate Leadership Fund sister group; estate tax, veterans and cost of living spots; funders not named
Donors, allIndividual$10.3Mrunning totalHinson U.S. Senate campaign committeeUnresolved individualthrough 2026-06-30Confirmedlittlevillagemag.comCycle total; do not sum with quarterly rows; cash on hand $6,749,491 on 2026-06-30
Donors, allIndividual$2.4MHinson U.S. Senate campaign committeeUnresolved individual2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31Confirmedlittlevillagemag.comQ1 2026; Telegraph Herald rounds to $2.4M with $6.5M cash
Donors, allIndividual$2.1MHinson U.S. Senate campaign committeeUnresolved individual2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30Confirmedlittlevillagemag.comQ2 2026; Turek outraised her this quarter
Donors, allIndividual$1.7MHinson U.S. Senate campaign committeeUnresolved individual2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31Confirmedthegazette.comQ4 2025; nearly $5.2M cash at year end
Senate Majority PACIndependent expenditure against$1.4MAshley HinsonOpponent context2026-08-24Confirmedbleedingheartland.comAd says nearly 200 missed votes, a tax break for her family business, and $8M net worth growth; may overlap the reservations
Bruce RastetterIndividual$60Krunning totalHinson campaign committeesAgribusiness2019 to 2026-08-11Secondaryiowademocrats.orgPartisan Iowa Democratic Party release relaying Iowa Starting Line; underlying report not read; no Hinson response found
Joint fundraising committee funded by GOP leadership PACsPolitical committeeamount not statedHinson U.S. Senate campaign committeeParty and leadershipas of 2026-06-02Confirmedlegis1.comCommittee and PAC names not given
Senate Leadership FundIndependent expenditure foramount not statedAshley HinsonParty and leadership2026-08-17 onwardConfirmedbleedingheartland.comAnti-Turek banner and TV ad
Bruce RastetterRelationshipn/aAshley HinsonAgribusinessas of 2026-08-24Confirmedbleedingheartland.comDonor who is helping her raise money from other large donors; tied to the Summit Carbon pipeline
Bruce Rastetter and Justin KirchhoffRelationshipn/aHinson U.S. Senate campaign committeeAgribusiness2026-08-05Secondaryiowademocrats.orgListed hosts of an Aug 5 fundraiser; host committee tier $2,000
Summit Agricultural GroupRelationship, one step backn/aBruce RastetterAgribusinessas of 2026-08-11Secondaryiowademocrats.orgRastetter founded it; its carbon capture pipeline could use eminent domain
Insurance agency private stock held by the Hinson householdRelationshipn/aAshley HinsonInsurance and tort2021 to 2024 disclosuresContestedinsurancenewsnet.comIowa Democrats via Heartland Signal say $1M to $5M retained after the agency stake sale and net worth rose to as much as $8M; campaign called it a shameless lie from partisan hacks and said the household sold individual stocks
Majority ForwardIndependent expenditure againstamount not statedAshley HinsonOpponent contextJuly 2026Confirmedcarrollspaper.comHealth care cost votes
Joni ErnstRelationshipn/aAshley HinsonParty and leadership2026-01-10Confirmednews.ballotpedia.orgEndorsement by the retiring incumbent
Donald TrumpRelationshipn/aAshley HinsonTrump worldbefore 2026-06-02Confirmedabc15.comEndorsement
Jim CarlinRelationshipn/aAshley HinsonRival context2026-06-02Confirmedbleedingheartland.comPrimary rival; just under 26 percent, 53,196 votes; attacked her Rastetter ties
Josh TurekRelationshipn/aAshley HinsonOpponent context2026-06-02Confirmednews.ballotpedia.orgDemocratic nominee

Decisions on the desk

What this office controls and which interests care about it
DecisionWhere it sitsWhenWho caresStakePositionSource
Congressional stock trading and ownership banCongress2027 to 2028Her own household holdings; Iowa Democrats; ethics groupsHousehold private stock of $1M to $5M per Heartland Signal, contestedCosponsored the Stop Insider Trading Act; declined in December 2025 to sign a discharge petition for a bill that would also ban ownership, per a partisan releaseinsurancenewsnet.com
Federal carbon capture and CO2 pipeline policyCongress and federal regulators2027 to 2028Bruce Rastetter; Summit Agricultural GroupNot quantified in sources readNo public position found in sources read; primary rival Carlin attacked her Rastetter tiesiowademocrats.org
Medicaid after the One Big Beautiful Bill ActCongress; reconciliation2027 to 2028Senate Majority PAC; Majority Forward; health care interestsNot quantified in sources readVoted for the 2025 lawcarrollspaper.com
Tariffs and farm tradePresident; Congress2027 to 2028Agribusiness donorsNot quantified in sources readSupports Trump's tariff policiescarrollspaper.com
Iran war funding and war powersPresident; Congress2027Party and leadershipNot quantifiedSupported continuing the war, later called it a political liabilitycarrollspaper.com
Annual spending bills and earmarksHouse Appropriations, her seat until January 3, 2027FY2027 bills through December 2026Defense contractors; AgribusinessNot quantifiedNot found in sources readnews.ballotpedia.org
Research notes: findings, inferences and gaps

Audit trail for IA-ashley-hinson, compiled October 25, 2026, sharing searches with the Turek file.

Thread 1: Committees and totals

Takeaway

Totals are clear through June 30, 2026. Committee IDs are not.

Cited findings

  • Q4 2025 nearly $1.7M raised, about $563,000 spent, nearly $5.2M cash. thegazette.com
  • Q1 $2,375,039; Q2 $2,059,828; cycle $10,262,866; cash $6,749,491 June 30. littlevillagemag.com
  • $6.5M campaign cash and $6.9M across authorized committees entering June; GOP leadership PAC funded JFC. legis1.com

Gaps

  • Q3 and pre-general figures.

Thread 2: Outside money

Cited findings

  • NRSC $29M commitment; Trump endorsement. abc15.com
  • One Nation $11M; SLF banner; SMP $1.45M ad with net worth and missed vote claims. bleedingheartland.com
  • SMP $13.4M and $17M; Majority Forward; her OBBBA vote, tariff support and Iran war stance. carrollspaper.com

Thread 3: Agribusiness

Cited findings

Inferences

  • Silence on the pipeline while taking Rastetter's help is a flag under the protocol.

Gaps

  • Starting Line report; FEC itemized records.

Thread 4: Own finances

Cited findings

Gaps

  • Her disclosures themselves.

Campaign intel

  • Main message: Trump endorsed Republican running on taxes, veterans and costs, with One Nation ads on ending the estate tax and her own ads attacking Turek since June. bleedingheartland.com and abc15.com
  • Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: personal enrichment. Senate Majority PAC says her net worth grew by $8M in Washington and that she backed a tax break for her family business; Democrats say she kept private insurance agency stock. Her campaign calls it a shameless lie. bleedingheartland.com and iowademocrats.org
  • Second vulnerability: health costs and Medicaid after her vote for the 2025 law, the core of more than $30M in Democratic reservations. carrollspaper.com
  • Strongest coalition: party infrastructure and cash. She had $6,749,491 on June 30 and the NRSC committed $29M. Iowa has about an 8 point Republican registration edge and Trump won it by 13 in 2024. littlevillagemag.com and legis1.com
  • Notable recent event: Bleeding Heartland reported on August 24 that Republicans seem increasingly worried, with Cook calling the race a toss up; she has since called the Iran war a political liability. bleedingheartland.com and carrollspaper.com
  • Pipeline exposure: Rastetter and Summit's CEO hosted an August 5 fundraiser for her while 78 percent of Iowans opposed eminent domain for pipelines in a 2023 poll. iowademocrats.org

From the On Point Watchdog Database, compiled 2026-10-25. Researched by the Watchdog desk from sources read in full; rows marked Confirmed mostly rest on news reports rather than the filings themselves, so check a figure against the filing before quoting it. FEC pre general report covers through Oct 14, 2026; post general report due Dec 3, 2026