How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Michigan Governor
Jocelyn Benson vs John James
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Cash weight 2080
$5.9M in the bank against $1.5M for John James.
- Activity weight 1075
9 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 2 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- Cash weight 2020
$1.5M in the bank against $5.9M for Jocelyn Benson.
- Activity weight 1050
6 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 2 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Jocelyn Benson leads by 12.6 in the forecast and wins 99% of simulations. The cushion is about 627,076 votes; a one point swing is about 24,845 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +6.0 and D +19.3. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +8.1. Your best recent poll is Suffolk University at D +15.4; your worst is YouGov at D +2.2. 13 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Wayne, a projected net 364,087 votes; Oakland, a projected net 166,168 votes; Washtenaw, a projected net 108,611 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Macomb, D +7.2, 8.7% of the vote; Livingston, R +10.7, 2.3% of the vote; Saginaw, D +5.8, 1.8% of the vote; Monroe, R +10.2, 1.5% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jocelyn Benson runs furthest behind in Ottawa, Kent, Berrien. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 78% of voters, 48 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.92 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 75% of voters, 54 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.74 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 60 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.06 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jocelyn Benson: Immigration voters 25 to 71, Small counties 39 to 58, Voters who can afford daily costs 47 to 49. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$5.9M cash against $1.5M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Jocelyn Benson. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- John James's strongest asset
Activity: 6 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
John James trails by 12.6 and wins 1% of simulations. Closing it takes about 313,538 voters switching sides, or 627,076 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +19.3 and D +6.0. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +8.1. Your best recent poll is YouGov at D +2.2; your worst is Suffolk University at D +15.4. 13 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Ottawa, a projected net 25,694 votes; St. Clair, a projected net 14,154 votes; Lapeer, a projected net 12,576 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Macomb, D +7.2, 8.7% of the vote; Livingston, R +10.7, 2.3% of the vote; Saginaw, D +5.8, 1.8% of the vote; Monroe, R +10.2, 1.5% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, John James runs furthest behind in Macomb, Wayne, St. Clair. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 78% of voters, 50 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.92 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 75% of voters, 43 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.74 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 37 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.06 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for John James: Black voters 8 to 90, Asian and other voters 20 to 78, Health care and Social Security voters 27 to 70. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.5M cash against $5.9M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from John James. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Jocelyn Benson's strongest asset
Cash: $5.9M in the bank against $1.5M for John James.
The map for Benson
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne | D +47.7 | 15.4% | +364,087 |
| Oakland | D +24.1 | 13.9% | +166,168 |
| Washtenaw | D +53.5 | 4.1% | +108,611 |
| Ingham | D +42.4 | 2.7% | +57,688 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macomb | D +7.2 | 8.7% | +31,152 |
| Livingston | R +10.7 | 2.3% | -12,120 |
| Saginaw | D +5.8 | 1.8% | +5,200 |
| Monroe | R +10.2 | 1.5% | -7,859 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa | R +16.2 | 3.2% | -25,694 |
| Kent | D +12.1 | 6.6% | +39,760 |
| Berrien | D +0.7 | 1.5% | +477 |
The coalition
Benson against James among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters79% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.9
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202475% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters without a degree59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Voters who can afford daily costs39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Benson is the fundraising leader in an open seat race, with about $5.9 million cash on hand on August 24, 2026 against $1.5 million for James, and Benson and allied groups were booked to outspend James on television by roughly $23 million to $1 million heading into October, per AdImpact data reported by Bridge Michigan. Her money is broad and capped: Michigan limits gifts to $8,325 from individuals and $83,250 from PACs, so no single donor dominates her committee the way the DeVos family dominates the pro James super PAC. Four interests combine real money with a live decision on her desk.
- Data centers and the Saline Township project. Her husband, Ryan Friedrichs, is a vice president of development at Related Companies, whose Related Digital is developing the $7 billion, 1.4 gigawatt OpenAI and Oracle data center in Saline Township. Related chairman Stephen Ross gave her the $8,325 maximum. She has pledged a statewide moratorium on new data centers. The MPSC data center tariff case and any moratorium bill land in 2027.
Top donor blocs: Labor unions, Utilities and data centers, Party and leadership
- James's campaign is the smaller of the two, with $1.5 million on hand on August 24, 2026 against Benson's $5.9 million, and the RGA pulled nearly all its reserved ads in the final stretch, per Bridge Michigan on October 13, 2026. His real financial base is outside the capped campaign, in the Mission Michigan super PAC, where Dan and Pamella DeVos have given $6 million since 2025. Four interests pair money with a live decision.
- The DeVos family and school choice. $6 million to Mission Michigan plus $112,575 from eleven family members and RDV Corp. employees to the campaign in 2026, with some gifts over the limit fixed by spousal attribution. James wants Michigan to opt into the federal Scholarship Tax Credit, a decision only the governor can make.
Top donor blocs: Billionaire megadonor, West Michigan business, Developers and construction
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +12.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +19.3 and D +6.0
- Polling average
- D +8.1
- Partisan lean
- D +0.1
- Early vote effect
- D +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 0 | 518 LV | D +11.8 |
| Marist University | 0 | 1,025 LV | D +3.8 |
| YouGov | 11 | 3,949 LV | D +2.2 |
| Mitchell Research for CBS Detroit | 14 | 682 LV | D +6.8 |
| Z to A Research (D) | 14 | 483 LV | D +8.8 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 17 | 1,028 LV | D +8.7 |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy | 18 | 800 LV | D +5.3 |
| Marist University | 18 | 1,235 RV | D +9.7 |
| co/efficient (R) | 22 | 843 LV | D +6.9 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 23 | 605 LV | D +4.4 |
| Beacon Research (D)/Cygnal (R) | 24 | 600 LV | D +5.5 |
| Suffolk University | 25 | 500 LV | D +15.4 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Benson | James | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | n/a | n/a |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $5.9M | $1.5M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$8.4M
The early vote
Michigan, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 986,207
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +35.5
- Forecast expected
- D +33.5
- Against expectation
- 2.0 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-22Kyle Kondik analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Michigan governor race between Jocelyn Benson and John James from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. Source
- 2026-10-15Jason Colthorp host
Moderated the WDIV debate between Jocelyn Benson and John James. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-24Barack Obama announced in Detroit
Rally with Michigan Democratic nominees. Source
- 2026-10-22Jocelyn Benson tour stop in East Lansing
Launched her Driving Down Costs statewide bus tour with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and running mate Winnie Brinks. Source
- 2026-10-22Jocelyn Benson tour stop in Battle Creek
Bus tour stop scheduled for this day, per a WWMT preview of the week's West Michigan events. Source
- 2026-10-22Jocelyn Benson tour stop in Kalamazoo
Bus tour stop scheduled for this day, per a WWMT preview of the week's West Michigan events. Source
- 2026-10-22Jocelyn Benson tour stop in Grand Rapids
Bus tour stop scheduled for this day, per a WWMT preview of the week's West Michigan events. Source
- 2026-10-22John James event in St. Clair Shores
Held a community talk at a restaurant on Lake St. Clair with running mate Jay DeBoyer and Macomb Public Works Commissioner Candice Miller. Source
- 2026-10-21John James rally in Paw Paw
Spoke to supporters at Brookside Farms and urged them to plan to vote early or on Election Day. Source
- 2026-10-16Jocelyn Benson event in Traverse City
Campaigned with Callie Barr, the Democratic nominee for the 1st Congressional District, per her campaign. Source
- 2026-10-15Jocelyn Benson debate in Detroit
Second and final gubernatorial debate, hosted by WDIV Local 4 in Detroit, with sparring over gas prices, tariffs and data centers. Source
- 2026-10-15John James debate in Detroit
Second and final gubernatorial debate, hosted by WDIV Local 4 in Detroit, with sparring over gas prices, tariffs and data centers. Source
- 2026-10-12John James event in Grosse Pointe
Campaigned on Mack Avenue on parental rights and an education tax credit, joined by parent Shane Pruitt and athlete Briley Lechner. Source
- 2026-10-06John James debate in Grand Rapids
First gubernatorial debate between Benson and James, held on Grand Rapids station WOOD TV. Source