How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Oregon Senate
Jeff Merkley vs David Brock Smith
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2595
Raised $5.2M against $291K for David Brock Smith.
- Cash weight 2099
$6.8M in the bank against $50K for David Brock Smith. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 1579
Registered Democrats cast 46% of the 489,294 ballots in Oregon so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 8.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Money weight 255
Raised $291K against $5.2M for Jeff Merkley.
- Cash weight 201
$50K in the bank against $6.8M for Jeff Merkley. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 1522
Registered Republicans cast 29% of the 489,294 ballots in Oregon so far, against 46% for the other party. That is 8.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $50K against $6.8M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Jeff Merkley leads by 30.1 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 617,570 votes; a one point swing is about 10,276 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +21.5 and D +38.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Multnomah, a projected net 289,862 votes; Washington, a projected net 137,544 votes; Lane, a projected net 80,890 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Yamhill, D +7.3, 2.5% of the vote; Polk, D +10.6, 2.1% of the vote; Coos, R +5.5, 1.6% of the vote; Columbia, R +2.1, 1.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jeff Merkley runs furthest behind in Klamath, Linn, Douglas. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 81% of voters, 59 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.04 points; Voters without a degree, 55% of voters, 58 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.77 points; Men, 46% of voters, 58 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.31 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jeff Merkley: Immigration voters 25 to 72, Small counties 46 to 50, Midsize counties 50 to 46. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.8M cash against $50K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 46% of the 489,294 ballots in Oregon so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 8.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.7 points toward Jeff Merkley. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- David Brock Smith's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 29% of the 489,294 ballots in Oregon so far, against 46% for the other party.
- Close the gap
David Brock Smith trails by 30.1 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 308,785 voters switching sides, or 617,570 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +38.5 and D +21.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Douglas, a projected net 15,020 votes; Klamath, a projected net 10,265 votes; Linn, a projected net 8,914 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Yamhill, D +7.3, 2.5% of the vote; Polk, D +10.6, 2.1% of the vote; Coos, R +5.5, 1.6% of the vote; Columbia, R +2.1, 1.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, David Brock Smith runs furthest behind in Jackson, Lane, Lincoln. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 81% of voters, 38 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.04 points; Voters without a degree, 55% of voters, 38 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.77 points; Men, 46% of voters, 39 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.31 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for David Brock Smith: Asian and other voters 15 to 81, Health care and Social Security voters 18 to 78, Corruption voters 22 to 75. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$50K cash against $6.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 29% of the 489,294 ballots in Oregon so far, against 46% for the other party. That is 8.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.7 points away from David Brock Smith. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Jeff Merkley's strongest asset
Cash: $6.8M in the bank against $50K for David Brock Smith.
The map for Merkley
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multnomah | D +73.8 | 19.1% | +289,862 |
| Washington | D +50.6 | 13.2% | +137,544 |
| Lane | D +42.0 | 9.4% | +80,890 |
| Clackamas | D +27.6 | 10.7% | +60,527 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yamhill | D +7.3 | 2.5% | +3,769 |
| Polk | D +10.6 | 2.1% | +4,570 |
| Coos | R +5.5 | 1.6% | -1,823 |
| Columbia | R +2.1 | 1.4% | -592 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klamath | R +31.6 | 1.6% | -10,265 |
| Linn | R +13.8 | 3.2% | -8,914 |
| Douglas | R +26.6 | 2.7% | -15,020 |
The coalition
Merkley against Smith among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters81% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.0
- Voters without a degree55% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Men46% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
- Voters who can afford daily costs39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Midsize counties31% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.5
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +30.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +38.5 and D +21.5
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- D +16.4
- Early vote effect
- D +1.7
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Merkley | Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $5.2M | $291K |
| Spent | $2.7M | $241K |
| Cash on hand | $6.8M | $50K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $0 |
The early vote
Oregon, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 489,294
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +16.7
- Forecast expected
- D +8.2
- Against expectation
- 8.5 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.