How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Texas Senate
James Talarico vs Ken Paxton
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2587
Raised $128.8M against $19.5M for Ken Paxton.
- Cash weight 2081
$21.5M in the bank against $4.9M for Ken Paxton. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1524
Outside groups spent $79.8M helping James Talarico and $251.8M helping Ken Paxton.
- Activity weight 1075
7 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 42 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $4.8M in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2513
Raised $19.5M against $128.8M for James Talarico.
- Cash weight 2019
$4.9M in the bank against $21.5M for James Talarico. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1576
Outside groups spent $251.8M helping Ken Paxton and $79.8M helping James Talarico.
- Activity weight 1075
7 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 28 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $435K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
James Talarico leads by 1.8 in the forecast and wins 63% of simulations. The cushion is about 176,004 votes; a one point swing is about 50,001 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +4.6 and D +8.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +1.8. Your best recent poll is On Point Polling at D +5.8; your worst is InsiderAdvantage at R +0.9. 30 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Harris, a projected net 313,277 votes; Dallas, a projected net 310,043 votes; Travis, a projected net 293,043 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Tarrant, D +9.4, 7.2% of the vote; Collin, D +3.0, 4.4% of the vote; Denton, R +1.3, 3.8% of the vote; Williamson, D +11.2, 2.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, James Talarico runs furthest behind in Brazoria, Montgomery, Denton. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 68% of voters, 58 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.40 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 64% of voters, 56 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.18 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 59% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for James Talarico: Immigration voters 22 to 76, Small counties 25 to 73, White voters 34 to 63. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$21.5M cash against $4.9M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward James Talarico. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Ken Paxton's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $251.8M helping Ken Paxton and $79.8M helping James Talarico.
- Close the gap
Ken Paxton trails by 1.8 and wins 37% of simulations. Closing it takes about 88,002 voters switching sides, or 176,004 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.0 and R +4.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +1.8. Your best recent poll is InsiderAdvantage at R +0.9; your worst is On Point Polling at D +5.8. 30 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Montgomery, a projected net 87,142 votes; Parker, a projected net 43,759 votes; Smith, a projected net 30,824 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Tarrant, D +9.4, 7.2% of the vote; Collin, D +3.0, 4.4% of the vote; Denton, R +1.3, 3.8% of the vote; Williamson, D +11.2, 2.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ken Paxton runs furthest behind in Hidalgo, Cameron, El Paso. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 68% of voters, 39 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.40 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 64% of voters, 42 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.18 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 59% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ken Paxton: Black voters 20 to 78, Health care and Social Security voters 29 to 69, Asian and other voters 29 to 68. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$4.9M cash against $21.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Ken Paxton. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- James Talarico's strongest asset
Money: Raised $128.8M against $19.5M for Ken Paxton.
The map for Talarico
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | D +22.6 | 13.9% | +313,277 |
| Dallas | D +39.9 | 7.8% | +310,043 |
| Travis | D +53.1 | 5.5% | +293,043 |
| Bexar | D +27.8 | 6.9% | +190,194 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrant | D +9.4 | 7.2% | +67,628 |
| Collin | D +3.0 | 4.4% | +13,019 |
| Denton | R +1.3 | 3.8% | -4,890 |
| Williamson | D +11.2 | 2.7% | +29,840 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazoria | R +11.3 | 1.4% | -15,317 |
| Montgomery | R +34.4 | 2.5% | -87,142 |
| Denton | R +1.3 | 3.8% | -4,890 |
The coalition
Talarico against Paxton among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Large counties68% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford64% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202459% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Voters without a degree53% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- White voters52% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. Ending billionaire control of politics and lowering costs, framed through faith and his record as a teacher; he calls Paxton "the most corrupt politician in Texas.". Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Culture war positions, led by his comments defending transgender Texans, packaged as "for they/them, not you," plus his vote on a China land sale ban. Source
- Strongest coalition. In the TPOR poll fielded October 15 to 18, he led 51 to 47 overall, with independents 66 to 28, Black voters 87 to 11, Latino voters 60 to 39 and women 54 to 47; Paxton led white voters, men, and voters without a degree. Source
- Recent event. Disclosure on October 15 and 16 that Musk was the money behind $158M routed through SLF to Texas PAC, which Talarico has turned into an anticorruption push aimed at both Paxton and Musk. Source
- Trend. TPOR's lead for him narrowed from six points in August to four in October, with men shifting to Paxton since September. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Billionaire megadonor, Ideological groups
- Main message. Paxton runs as the Trump aligned conservative and frames Talarico as far left; adviser Nick Maddux cites higher taxes, boys in girls' sports and defunding the police. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Corruption: the securities case, the 2023 impeachment, his real estate, and the disclosure that left out rental income and mortgages. Source
- Strongest coalition. White voters 60 to 38, men 50 to 47 and voters without a college degree 50 to 47 in the TPOR poll of October 15 to 18, with men moving toward him since September. Source
- Recent event. Disclosure that Musk funded $158M of the SLF rescue through Texas PAC, after Paxton spent little on his own ads all summer. Source
- State of race. TPOR has him down 51 to 47; a Paxton internal showed him up 3, and the Tribune tracker had Talarico up 2 on October 1. Source
Top donor blocs: Billionaire megadonor, Party and leadership, Trump world
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +1.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.0 and R +4.6
- Polling average
- D +1.8
- Partisan lean
- R +12.4
- Early vote effect
- D +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/YouGov | 0 | 1,458 LV | D +1.1 |
| On Point Polling | 0 | 385 LV | D +5.8 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 0 | 1,398 LV | R +0.3 |
| Emerson College | 0 | 1,000 LV | D +2.8 |
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | D +2.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 0 | 965 LV | R +0.5 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 0 | 969 LV | D +2.3 |
| VoteHub/Verasight | 0 | 509 LV | D +2.4 |
| ActiVote | 1 | 400 LV | D +3.8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1 | 800 LV | R +0.9 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 1 | 2,000 LV | D +2.0 |
| Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies | 2 | 934 LV | D +5.0 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Talarico | Paxton | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $128.8M | $19.5M |
| Spent | $47.0M | $14.6M |
| Cash on hand | $21.5M | $4.9M |
| Outside money for | $79.8M | $251.8M |
| Google ads | $4.8M | $435K |
- Texas PAC against James Talarico$148.6M
- MAGA Inc. against James Talarico$30.4M
- America PAC against James Talarico$26.6M
- Lone Star Rising PAC against Ken Paxton$21.6M
- Lone Star Liberty PAC against James Talarico$20.1M
- Texas Forever against Ken Paxton$10.9M
- Lower Costs Now against Ken Paxton$9.9M
- Defend US PAC against James Talarico$9.4M
- All advertisers, ad spending plus reservations, more than Source$500.0M
- Texas PAC, initial broadcast TV buy 2026-09-11 Source$51.3M
- MAGA Inc., ad time buy early Sept Source$10.0M
- Republican groups total since late May runoff through Sept reservations Source$81.1M
- Democratic side total, nearly all Talarico campaign, same period Source$43.7M
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$74.1M
The early vote
Texas, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 3,576,004
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +8.4
- Forecast expected
- R +9.4
- Against expectation
- 1.0 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026, date not reportedDon Henley celebrity, leans D
Gave $250,000 to Lone Star Rising, a super PAC backing Talarico, plus individual contributions. Source
- 2026-10-11Elon Musk business, leans R
Posted on X criticizing Talarico and helped spread a false claim about his campaign absence; Talarico said he had the flu. Source
- 2026-10The Chicks celebrity, leans D
The band endorsed Talarico on Instagram. Source
- 2026-09-25Bill Nye celebrity, leans D
Appeared in a video launching the Teachers for Talarico effort. Source
- 2026-09-24Steve Bannon podcaster, leans R
On War Room, warned that Ken Paxton has a real fight against James Talarico and told Republicans to assume they are losing. Source
- 2026-09-10Damon Lindelof celebrity, leans D
Hosted a Los Angeles fundraiser for Talarico with his wife. Source
- 2026-09 to 2026-10Elon Musk business, leans R
Gave $158 million to Senate Leadership Fund, which routed large sums to a pro Paxton Texas PAC, plus $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC. Source
- 2026-09Joe Rogan podcaster, leans other
On an episode with Ron White, praised Talarico on one issue, questioned some of his positions, and said he did not know enough about Paxton; no endorsement. Source
- 2026-09Ron White celebrity, leans D
The comedian voiced support for Democrat James Talarico while a guest on The Joe Rogan Experience. Source
- 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-29Mark Cuban business, leans D
Called Talarico honest on the Pivot podcast, then joined him onstage in Fort Worth, short of a formal endorsement. Source
- 2026-08-06Mark Halperin reporter
Told Megyn Kelly that if the election were held today James Talarico would beat Ken Paxton unless Republicans change the race's trajectory. Source
- 2026-08-06Megyn Kelly host, leans R
Hosted Mark Halperin and called his view that Talarico is on track to beat Paxton 'stunning', noting polls show Talarico ahead. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-11-02James Talarico announced in Austin
Planned final stop of the Clear Eyes, Full Hearts tour on the night before Election Day. Source
- 2026-11-02Ken Paxton announced in San Antonio
Planned finale of the Come and Take It bus tour at the Alamo on the eve of Election Day. Source
- 2026-10-27Donald Trump announced in Lubbock
2:30 p.m. rally on his fourth Texas trip; one Fox blog listed Oct 20 instead. Source
- 2026-10-27Donald Trump announced in Waco
6 p.m. rally the same day as Lubbock. Source
- 2026-10-21James Talarico tour stop in Houston
Midday tour stop at the University of Houston. Source
- 2026-10-21James Talarico tour stop in Richmond
Evening tour stop at Safari Texas Ranch. Source
- 2026-10-20Ken Paxton tour stop in Conroe
Bus tour stop at The Table at Madeley. Source
- 2026-10-20Ken Paxton tour stop in Richmond
Evening bus tour stop at Safari Texas Ranch in Fort Bend County, the same venue the article places in Richmond for Talarico. Source
- 2026-10-19Bernie Sanders rally in El Paso
Abraham Chavez Theatre rally with Beto O'Rourke; Talarico campaigned elsewhere that day. Source
- 2026-10-19James Talarico tour stop in Denton
Afternoon tour stop at the University of North Texas. Source
- 2026-10-19James Talarico tour stop in Fort Worth
Evening tour stop in Fort Worth on the first day of early voting. Source
- 2026-10-19Ken Paxton tour stop in Fort Worth
Paxton campaigned in Fort Worth on the first day of early voting, the same day as Talarico. Source