How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Nebraska Senate
Dan Osborn, independent vs Pete Ricketts
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2542
Raised $9.8M against $13.4M for Pete Ricketts.
- Cash weight 2026
$2.4M in the bank against $6.9M for Pete Ricketts. As of 10/14/2026.
- Air cover weight 1555
Outside groups spent $22.3M helping Dan Osborn and $18.3M helping Pete Ricketts.
- Early vote weight 1558
Registered Democrats cast 41% of the 136,433 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 8.4 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1075
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 3 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $124K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −8 Contested items in the watchdog file. 4 allegations on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 2558
Raised $13.4M against $9.8M for Dan Osborn.
- Cash weight 2074
$6.9M in the bank against $2.4M for Dan Osborn. As of 10/14/2026.
- Air cover weight 1545
Outside groups spent $18.3M helping Pete Ricketts and $22.3M helping Dan Osborn.
- Early vote weight 1542
Registered Republicans cast 42% of the 136,433 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 8.4 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1075
4 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 2 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $583K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Dan Osborn leads by 1.3 in the forecast and wins 58% of simulations. The cushion is about 10,363 votes; a one point swing is about 3,867 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +6.0 and D +8.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +1.6. Your best recent poll is YouGov at D +0.1; your worst is GBAO (D) at R +1.3. 5 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Douglas, a projected net 71,250 votes; Lancaster, a projected net 30,919 votes; Sarpy, a projected net 10,292 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Dodge, R +8.9, 1.7% of the vote; Cass, R +11.2, 1.6% of the vote; Dakota, R +2.1, 0.6% of the vote; Saline, R +4.2, 0.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Dan Osborn runs furthest behind in Platte, Lancaster. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 86% of voters, 45 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.29 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 68% of voters, 48 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.40 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 57 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.00 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Dan Osborn: Immigration voters 24 to 76, Small counties 33 to 64, Voters who can afford daily costs 42 to 58. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.4M cash against $6.9M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 41% of the 136,433 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 8.4 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.7 points toward Dan Osborn. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Pete Ricketts's strongest asset
Activity: 4 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- An opening
Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: a billionaire family incumbent who funds himself and dark money, in Osborn's telling; Ricketts put $5.2M of his own money in during one quarter. Source
- Close the gap
Pete Ricketts trails by 1.3 and wins 42% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,181 voters switching sides, or 10,363 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.8 and R +6.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +1.6. Your best recent poll is GBAO (D) at R +1.3; your worst is YouGov at D +0.1. 5 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Platte, a projected net 5,044 votes; Buffalo, a projected net 4,352 votes; Lincoln, a projected net 4,093 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Dodge, R +8.9, 1.7% of the vote; Cass, R +11.2, 1.6% of the vote; Dakota, R +2.1, 0.6% of the vote; Saline, R +4.2, 0.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Pete Ricketts runs furthest behind in Scotts Bluff, Cass, Lincoln. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 86% of voters, 52 to 45, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.29 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 68% of voters, 52 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.40 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 43 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.00 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Pete Ricketts: Asian and other voters 21 to 75, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 24 to 71, Moderates 30 to 66. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.9M cash against $2.4M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 42% of the 136,433 ballots in Nebraska so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 8.4 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.7 points away from Pete Ricketts. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Dan Osborn's strongest asset
Activity: 1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- An opening
Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: Republicans call him Democrat Dan, a secret Democrat funded by coastal donors, and point to FEC complaints over payments to family. He denies being a Democrat and calls the complaints baseless. Source
The map for Osborn
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas | I +31.9 | 28.9% | +71,250 |
| Lancaster | I +23.6 | 16.9% | +30,919 |
| Sarpy | I +13.4 | 10% | +10,292 |
| Thurston | I +12.1 | 0.2% | +207 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodge | R +8.9 | 1.7% | -1,193 |
| Cass | R +11.2 | 1.6% | -1,411 |
| Dakota | R +2.1 | 0.6% | -101 |
| Saline | R +4.2 | 0.6% | -189 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platte | R +39.3 | 1.7% | -5,044 |
| Lancaster | I +23.6 | 16.9% | +30,919 |
The coalition
Osborn against Ricketts among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters86% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.3
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202468% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree55% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.7
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties44% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.2
- Voters who can afford daily costs40% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message: working class populism from a former labor leader who will not caucus with either party, asking voters to take off the red and blue jerseys. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: Republicans call him Democrat Dan, a secret Democrat funded by coastal donors, and point to FEC complaints over payments to family. He denies being a Democrat and calls the complaints baseless. Source
- Strongest coalition: cross party working class voters and farm groups, including the Nebraska Farmers Union endorsement, with about 71,000 donors. Source
- Polls: YouGov had him up 48 to 47 from September 24 to October 3, SurveyUSA up 46 to 42, and co/efficient had Ricketts up 48 to 43. Source
- Notable recent event: Trump rallied for Ricketts in Grand Island on October 5, and the Senate Leadership Fund is adding $8M through Election Day. Source
- Outside air cover: $12.8M from six groups through October 13. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Ideological groups, Labor unions
- Main message: Osborn is a secret Democrat, Democrat Dan, backed by coastal liberal donors, while Ricketts says he cannot be bought and touts the 2025 tax law and tariffs for agriculture. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: a billionaire family incumbent who funds himself and dark money, in Osborn's telling; Ricketts put $5.2M of his own money in during one quarter. Source
- Strongest coalition: rural and agricultural Nebraska, with a Farm Bureau endorsement and most large gifts from Nebraskans. Source
- Polls: within 5 points either way in three late September and early October surveys, the best for him co/efficient at 48 to 43. Source
- Notable recent event: Trump campaigned for him in Grand Island on October 5, and Senate Republicans are adding $8M through Election Day. Source
- Air war: $7.9M for him or against Osborn through October 1 against $7.3M the other way. Source
Top donor blocs: Self funding, Party and leadership, Tech
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- I +1.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- I +8.8 and R +6.0
- Polling average
- R +1.6
- Partisan lean
- R +19.3
- Early vote effect
- I +1.7
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs (R) | 0 | 598 LV | R +0.3 |
| GBAO (D) | 0 | 800 LV | R +1.3 |
| National Public Affairs (R) | 10 | 800 LV | R +0.3 |
| YouGov | 12 | 1,809 LV | I +0.1 |
| co/efficient (R) | 15 | 1,113 LV | R +1.3 |
| SurveyUSA | 32 | 503 LV | I +3.4 |
| GBAO (D) | 37 | 800 LV | R +1.4 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 10/14/2026| Osborn | Ricketts | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $9.8M | $13.4M |
| Spent | $3.4M | $4.8M |
| Cash on hand | $2.4M | $6.9M |
| Outside money for | $22.3M | $18.3M |
| Google ads | $124K | $583K |
- Nebraska Values PAC against Pete Ricketts$9.3M
- Working Class Majority PAC for Dan Osborn$7.8M
- Cornhusker Majority against Dan Osborn$6.9M
- Defend American Jobs against Dan Osborn$6.7M
- The Edge Action Fund for Dan Osborn$2.5M
- Senate Leadership Fund against Dan Osborn$2.2M
- Win It Back PAC against Dan Osborn$2.1M
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$8.6M
The early vote
Nebraska, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 136,433
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.6
- Forecast expected
- R +8.9
- Against expectation
- 8.4 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-21Jessica Tarlov host, leans D
Hosted a live Prof G conversation with independent Dan Osborn about his race against Pete Ricketts. Source
- 2026-10-20Karl Rove commentator, leans R
Predicted Pete Ricketts will win and called Dan Osborn a phony. Source
- 2026-10-19Mary Harris podcaster
Interviewed Dan Osborn on What Next about why he is running as an independent. Source
- 2026-10-05Zach Weissmueller podcaster, leans other
Interviewed Dan Osborn on The Reason Interview about whether he can win over libertarians. Source
- 2026-09-30Brian Tyler Cohen podcaster, leans D
Interviewed independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-24Ro Khanna event in
Khanna is scheduled to campaign in Nebraska with independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn. Source
- 2026-10-22JD Vance rally in North Platte
Fix: the announced rally took place at the D&N Center, about 1,200 people. Vance urged support for Ricketts and Pillen and attacked Dan Osborn. Date and city unchanged. Source
- 2026-10-22Pete Ricketts rally in North Platte
Ricketts spoke ahead of Vice President JD Vance at the D&N Event Center, along with Gov. Jim Pillen and Rep. Adrian Smith. Source
- 2026-10-15Dan Osborn event in Hyannis
On a Sand Hills swing Osborn met with three skeptical voters, including rancher Mark Vinton, in a conference room. Source
- 2026-10-15Dan Osborn event in Arthur
Osborn spoke with lunchtime patrons at The Bunkhouse restaurant; the date is from a photo caption, while the text says Wednesday. Source
- 2026-10-14Dan Osborn town hall in Omaha
Late afternoon town hall at a Mexican restaurant that drew about 40 people. Source
- 2026-10-05Donald Trump rally in Grand Island
Rally at Pinnacle Bank Expo Center as the Ricketts race tightened against Dan Osborn. Source
- 2026-10-05Pete Ricketts rally in Grand Island
Ricketts spoke before President Trump and told the crowd we will keep Nebraska red, with Gov. Jim Pillen and Rep. Adrian Smith also speaking. Source
- 2026-10-01Dan Osborn town hall in Red Cloud
Osborn apologized at a town hall for an audio recording about a hypothetical Trump supporting couple. Source