How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Arkansas Governor
Fredrick Love vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 252
Raised $193K against $7.7M for Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
- Cash weight 200
$8K in the bank against $5.1M for Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
- Early vote weight 1558
Registered Democrats cast 7% of the 255,627 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 27.1 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $8K against $5.1M.
- Money weight 2598
Raised $7.7M against $193K for Fredrick Love.
- Cash weight 20100
$5.1M in the bank against $8K for Fredrick Love.
- Early vote weight 1542
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 255,627 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 7% for the other party. That is 27.1 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Fredrick Love trails by 16.9 and wins 1% of simulations. Closing it takes about 83,183 voters switching sides, or 166,366 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +25.0 and R +8.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +17.6. Your best recent poll is Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College at R +20.2; your worst is Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College at R +20.2. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Pulaski, a projected net 49,437 votes; Jefferson, a projected net 6,449 votes; Washington, a projected net 5,152 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Washington, D +6.5, 8.0% of the vote; Mississippi, R +11.3, 1.0% of the vote; Ouachita, R +7.6, 0.8% of the vote; Clark, R +5.3, 0.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Fredrick Love runs furthest behind in Benton, Sebastian, Baxter. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 38 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.25 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 47 to 45, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.08 points; Voters without a degree, 61% of voters, 38 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.07 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Fredrick Love: Immigration voters 16 to 77, White voters 30 to 67, Small counties 30 to 67. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$8K cash against $5.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 7% of the 255,627 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 27.1 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 4.0 points toward Fredrick Love. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders's strongest asset
Cash: $5.1M in the bank against $8K for Fredrick Love.
- Protect the lead
Sarah Huckabee Sanders leads by 16.9 in the forecast and wins 99% of simulations. The cushion is about 166,366 votes; a one point swing is about 4,922 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +8.8 and R +25.0. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +17.6. Your best recent poll is Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College at R +20.2; your worst is Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College at R +20.2. 1 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Benton, a projected net 20,517 votes; Saline, a projected net 12,057 votes; White, a projected net 10,892 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Washington, D +6.5, 8.0% of the vote; Mississippi, R +11.3, 1.0% of the vote; Ouachita, R +7.6, 0.8% of the vote; Clark, R +5.3, 0.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Sarah Huckabee Sanders runs furthest behind in White, Crittenden, Greene. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 55 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.25 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 45 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.08 points; Voters without a degree, 61% of voters, 58 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.07 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Sarah Huckabee Sanders: Black voters 18 to 80, Large counties 30 to 68, Asian and other voters 35 to 61. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$5.1M cash against $8K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 255,627 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 7% for the other party. That is 27.1 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 4.0 points away from Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Fredrick Love's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 7% of the 255,627 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 9% for the other party.
The map for Love
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pulaski | D +36.5 | 13.8% | +49,437 |
| Jefferson | D +33.1 | 2% | +6,449 |
| Washington | D +6.5 | 8% | +5,152 |
| Crittenden | D +20.3 | 1.3% | +2,499 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | D +6.5 | 8% | +5,152 |
| Mississippi | R +11.3 | 1% | -1,053 |
| Ouachita | R +7.6 | 0.8% | -566 |
| Clark | R +5.3 | 0.7% | -359 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benton | R +20.6 | 10.1% | -20,517 |
| Sebastian | R +28.2 | 3.8% | -10,525 |
| Baxter | R +47.1 | 1.7% | -7,913 |
The coalition
Love against Sanders among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202465% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters without a degree61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Women53% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- White voters77% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Small counties41% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +16.9
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +8.8 and R +25.0
- Polling average
- R +17.6
- Partisan lean
- R +29.8
- Early vote effect
- D +4.0
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College | 2 | 709 LV | R +20.2 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Love | Sanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $193K | $7.7M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $8K | $5.1M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Arkansas, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 255,627
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +1.8
- Forecast expected
- R +28.9
- Against expectation
- 27.1 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
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