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Governor · South Dakota

South Dakota Governor

Dan Ahlers vs Larry Rhoden

ForecastR +13.1

Democrat5%

Republican95%

RatingLikely R

Full forecast

Brief me as

Neutral view. Pick a side and the War Room briefs you as that campaign's operative.

Vital signs

Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity

DemocratDan AhlersNot enough data

Early vote weight 1519
Registered Democrats cast 30% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 53% for the other party. That is 3.9 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.

RepublicanLarry RhodenNot enough data

Early vote weight 1581
Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party. That is 3.9 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.

How each side wins

From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots

If you work for Dan Ahlers

Close the gap
Dan Ahlers trails by 13.1 and wins 5% of simulations. Closing it takes about 25,084 voters switching sides, or 50,169 more net votes from new turnout.
The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +22.1 and R +3.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
The polls
The polls page average is R +18.0. Your best recent poll is Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) at R +12.7; your worst is Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center at R +19.2. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Minnehaha, a projected net 6,927 votes; Oglala Lakota, a projected net 2,586 votes; Todd, a projected net 1,508 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Minnehaha, D +8.3, 21.7% of the vote; Lincoln, R +11.1, 8.2% of the vote; Brown, R +7.0, 4.0% of the vote; Brookings, R +5.6, 3.6% of the vote.
Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Dan Ahlers runs furthest behind in Hughes, Lawrence, Brookings. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 88% of voters, 42 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.42 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 72% of voters, 41 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.62 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.04 points.
Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Dan Ahlers: Immigration voters 20 to 78, Voters who can afford daily costs 39 to 58, Small counties 41 to 58. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 30% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 53% for the other party. That is 3.9 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points away from Dan Ahlers. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
Larry Rhoden's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party.

If you work for Larry Rhoden

Protect the lead
Larry Rhoden leads by 13.1 in the forecast and wins 95% of simulations. The cushion is about 50,169 votes; a one point swing is about 1,922 voters changing sides.
The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +3.4 and R +22.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
The polls
The polls page average is R +18.0. Your best recent poll is Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center at R +19.2; your worst is Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) at R +12.7. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Pennington, a projected net 6,096 votes; Meade, a projected net 5,089 votes; Lincoln, a projected net 3,477 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Minnehaha, D +8.3, 21.7% of the vote; Lincoln, R +11.1, 8.2% of the vote; Brown, R +7.0, 4.0% of the vote; Brookings, R +5.6, 3.6% of the vote.
Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Larry Rhoden runs furthest behind in Union, Minnehaha, Brown. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 88% of voters, 57 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.42 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 72% of voters, 57 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.62 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.04 points.
Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Larry Rhoden: Asian and other voters 25 to 73, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 29 to 69, Independents 34 to 63. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party. That is 3.9 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points toward Larry Rhoden. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
Dan Ahlers's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 30% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 53% for the other party.

The map for Ahlers

County projections from the forecast

Vote banksWhere the biggest net margins come from

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Minnehaha	D +8.3	21.7%	+6,927
Oglala Lakota	D +79.4	0.8%	+2,586
Todd	D +67.9	0.6%	+1,508
Clay	D +25.7	1.5%	+1,448

BattlegroundsLarge counties within 12 points

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Minnehaha	D +8.3	21.7%	+6,927
Lincoln	R +11.1	8.2%	-3,477
Brown	R +7.0	4%	-1,078
Brookings	R +5.6	3.6%	-787

Behind the 2024 mapRunning furthest behind the last presidential vote

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Hughes	R +23.3	2.1%	-1,840
Lawrence	R +22.0	3.5%	-2,982
Brookings	R +5.6	3.6%	-787

The coalition

Ahlers against Rhoden among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates

Swing groups

White voters89% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.4
4257
Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202473% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
4157
Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
4949
Small counties57% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
4158

Weakest groups

Immigration voters13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
2078
Voters who can afford daily costs39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
3958
Small counties57% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
4158

AhlersRhoden

Scouting report

From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source

Dan Ahlers

No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.

Larry Rhoden

No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.

The forecast

Margin over recent runs

Now: R +13.1
8 in 10 land between: R +3.4 and R +22.1
Polling average: R +18.0
Partisan lean: R +28.4
Early vote effect: R +1.1

Recent polls

Last 45 days

Pollster	Days ago	Sample	Result
Emerson College	0	803 LV	R +17.2
Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center	1	500 LV	R +19.2
Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)	7	400 LV	R +12.7