How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Ohio Governor
Amy Acton vs Vivek Ramaswamy
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2572
Raised $3.9M against $1.5M for Vivek Ramaswamy.
- Cash weight 2060
$3.6M in the bank against $2.4M for Vivek Ramaswamy.
- Activity weight 1075
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 11 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. 2 stories on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- Money weight 2528
Raised $1.5M against $3.9M for Amy Acton.
- Cash weight 2040
$2.4M in the bank against $3.6M for Amy Acton.
- Activity weight 1075
11 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 12 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Amy Acton leads by 4.2 in the forecast and wins 79% of simulations. The cushion is about 202,144 votes; a one point swing is about 23,894 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +2.4 and D +11.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +4.0. Your best recent poll is Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network at D +7.3; your worst is ActiVote at R +2.8. 15 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Franklin, a projected net 236,994 votes; Cuyahoga, a projected net 233,475 votes; Hamilton, a projected net 98,363 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Montgomery, D +11.7, 4.5% of the vote; Stark, R +5.6, 3.2% of the vote; Lorain, D +7.1, 2.7% of the vote; Delaware, D +1.7, 2.3% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Amy Acton runs furthest behind in Greene, Delaware, Clermont. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 43 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.08 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 67% of voters, 48 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.37 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 55 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Amy Acton: Immigration voters 22 to 74, Small counties 29 to 68, Midsize counties 43 to 54. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$3.6M cash against $2.4M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Vivek Ramaswamy's strongest asset
Activity: 11 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
Vivek Ramaswamy trails by 4.2 and wins 21% of simulations. Closing it takes about 101,072 voters switching sides, or 202,144 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.0 and R +2.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +4.0. Your best recent poll is ActiVote at R +2.8; your worst is Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network at D +7.3. 15 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Clermont, a projected net 25,131 votes; Warren, a projected net 22,604 votes; Butler, a projected net 21,983 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Montgomery, D +11.7, 4.5% of the vote; Stark, R +5.6, 3.2% of the vote; Lorain, D +7.1, 2.7% of the vote; Delaware, D +1.7, 2.3% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Vivek Ramaswamy runs furthest behind in Clark, Mahoning, Portage. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 54 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.08 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 67% of voters, 48 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.37 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 40 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Vivek Ramaswamy: Black voters 9 to 88, Asian and other voters 22 to 74, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 30 to 67. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.4M cash against $3.6M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Amy Acton's strongest asset
Activity: 3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
The map for Acton
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin | D +46.3 | 10.7% | +236,994 |
| Cuyahoga | D +46.9 | 10.4% | +233,475 |
| Hamilton | D +28.0 | 7.4% | +98,363 |
| Summit | D +25.2 | 4.8% | +57,598 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery | D +11.7 | 4.5% | +25,018 |
| Stark | R +5.6 | 3.2% | -8,466 |
| Lorain | D +7.1 | 2.7% | +9,192 |
| Delaware | D +1.7 | 2.3% | +1,883 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greene | R +12.7 | 1.6% | -9,591 |
| Delaware | D +1.7 | 2.3% | +1,883 |
| Clermont | R +27.4 | 1.9% | -25,131 |
The coalition
Acton against Ramaswamy among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters82% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.1
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202467% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties15% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Midsize counties38% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Acton's money is the reverse of her opponent's. She has many donors, mostly in Ohio, and few large checks. Her biggest institutional backers are the Ohio Democratic Party and organized labor. In September 2026 she raised slightly more than $6 million against Vivek Ramaswamy's just over $3 million. Even so, her total donations since entering the race were still about $5 million short of the more than $36 million Ramaswamy has put in himself, per the Ohio Capital Journal on October 13, 2026
- Three interests combine real money with a decision she would control:
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Labor unions, Party and leadership
- Ramaswamy is the most expensive candidate in Ohio history and the money comes from three places: his own fortune, a federal super PAC fed by a handful of billionaires, and a donor base that is broad but thin in Ohio. He has committed more than $36 million of his own money as loans he can repay from donor funds, per the Ohio Capital Journal on October 13, 2026 V-PAC: Victors Not Victims, FEC ID C00892919, has taken at least $30 million from Jeff Yass alone, per Signal Ohio on August 27, 2026
- Four interests have both real money in and a dated decision on the next governor's desk:
Top donor blocs: Billionaire megadonor, Self funding, Party and leadership
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +4.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.0 and R +2.4
- Polling average
- D +4.0
- Partisan lean
- R +9.8
- Early vote effect
- Even
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 0 | 635 LV | D +4.8 |
| Marist University | 0 | 883 LV | D +4.9 |
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | R +2.8 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 0 | 1,592 LV | D +1.7 |
| VoteHub/Verasight | 0 | 531 LV | D +0.8 |
| Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies | 2 | 959 LV | D +5.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 6 | 1,000 LV | D +5.1 |
| co/efficient (R) | 9 | 925 LV | D +1.8 |
| CNN/SSRS | 10 | 760 LV | D +6.9 |
| New York Times/Siena | 14 | 616 LV | D +3.3 |
| YouGov | 15 | 3,780 LV | D +3.2 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | 18 | 680 LV | D +0.4 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Acton | Ramaswamy | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.9M | $1.5M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $3.6M | $2.4M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$14.4M
- Ramaswamy campaign, ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, per the Acton campaign's claim Source$4.0M
The early vote
Ohio, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 974,146
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.7
- Forecast expected
- D +9.9
- Against expectation
- 1.1 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-21Scott Jennings commentator, leans R
Called Ramaswamy's ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother indefensible and predicted it will blow up in their face. Source
- 2026-10-20Scott Jennings commentator, leans R
On NewsNight called the Ramaswamy ad risky and said launching it late was not reassuring for the campaign. Source
- 2026-10-20Abby Phillip host
Called Ramaswamy's Acton mother ad extremely risky and asked if it signals trouble for his campaign. Source
- 2026-10-20Jason Rantz commentator, leans R
Called the Ramaswamy ad unbelievably disgusting and said he would no longer vote for Ramaswamy. Source
- 2026-10-19Harry Enten analyst
Said the Ohio governor race has flipped to Amy Acton, up 4, and called Ramaswamy's standing with independents the worst this century. Source
- 2026-10-13Ali Velshi host, leans D
Anchored The 11th Hour live from Columbus covering the Ohio governor and Senate races. Source
- 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-10Nick Fuentes commentator, leans R
As Ohio early voting opened, posted repeated calls on X for followers to vote for Acton; one post drew about 2 million views. Source
- 2026-10-06Amy Juravich host
Interviewed Vivek Ramaswamy on All Sides about the gas tax holiday, property taxes and Amy Acton's refusal to debate. Source
- 2026-09-22Larry Sabato analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Ohio governor race from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Source
- 2026-09-05Laura Loomer activist, leans R
Posted an unverified, unsourced claim about Amy Acton's conduct at an event; the Ohio Republican Party's account amplified it and credited her. Source
- 2026-05-06Nick Fuentes commentator, leans R
After Ramaswamy won the GOP primary, urged followers on his livestream to vote for Democrat Amy Acton as a protest vote or stay home. Source
- 2025-12-23Nick Fuentes commentator, leans R
On a livestream after Ramaswamy criticized him at AmericaFest, said he would work against Ramaswamy's election and called it the only 2026 race he cares about. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-28Donald Trump announced in Chillicothe
Announced Wednesday rally, his third Ohio rally of the fall, remarks expected at 7 p.m., venue to be announced. Whether Husted and Ramaswamy will attend was not confirmed. Source
- 2026-10-24Barack Obama announced in Cleveland
Afternoon rally per press release; venue not named. Source
- 2026-10-24Amy Acton announced in Cleveland
Scheduled afternoon rally with former President Barack Obama and Sherrod Brown, venue not yet released as of Oct. 13. Source
- 2026-10-23Vivek Ramaswamy rally in Strongsville
GOP ticket rally with running mate Senate President Rob McColley and other statewide Republican candidates on a three stop Friday swing. Source
- 2026-10-23Vivek Ramaswamy rally in Delaware
GOP ticket rally with running mate Senate President Rob McColley and other statewide Republican candidates on a three stop Friday swing. Source
- 2026-10-23Vivek Ramaswamy rally in Circleville
GOP ticket rally with running mate Senate President Rob McColley and other statewide Republican candidates on a three stop Friday swing. Source
- 2026-10-21JD Vance rally in Sharonville
Rally at Sharonville Convention Center in Greater Cincinnati. Source
- 2026-10-14Vivek Ramaswamy event in Columbus
Public forum at the Columbus Metropolitan Club, in conversation with Statehouse News Bureau chief Karen Kasler, taking audience questions. Source
- 2026-10-14Amy Acton rally in Columbus
Rally closed to media with about 100 attendees, including Ohio State student supporters, at WOSU Public Media's Sandy and Andy Ross Community Studio near campus. Source
- 2026-10-12Donald Trump rally in Youngstown
Covelli Centre rally, his second Ohio stop in ten days. Source
- 2026-10-12Vivek Ramaswamy event in Cleveland
Marched in the Cleveland Columbus Day Parade amid a tight governor's race. Source
- 2026-10-12Vivek Ramaswamy rally in Youngstown
Appeared at President Trump's campaign event in Youngstown alongside Sen. Jon Husted the same day as the Cleveland parade. Source