How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Kansas Governor
Cindy Holscher vs Ty Masterson
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2536
Raised $811K against $1.5M for Ty Masterson.
- Cash weight 2013
$65K in the bank against $430K for Ty Masterson.
- Early vote weight 1570
Registered Democrats cast 48% of the 154,074 ballots in Kansas so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 16.6 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $65K against $430K.
- Money weight 2564
Raised $1.5M against $811K for Cindy Holscher.
- Cash weight 2087
$430K in the bank against $65K for Cindy Holscher.
- Early vote weight 1530
Registered Republicans cast 39% of the 154,074 ballots in Kansas so far, against 48% for the other party. That is 16.6 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Cindy Holscher leads by 3.1 in the forecast and wins 68% of simulations. The cushion is about 35,996 votes; a one point swing is about 5,750 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +5.3 and D +11.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +4.2. Your best recent poll is Global Strategy Group (D) at D +0.5; your worst is On Point Polling at R +6.5. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Johnson, a projected net 74,304 votes; Douglas, a projected net 31,102 votes; Wyandotte, a projected net 22,710 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sedgwick, D +5.8, 16.1% of the vote; Leavenworth, R +5.4, 2.7% of the vote; Crawford, R +4.2, 1.2% of the vote; Harvey, R +5.9, 1.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Cindy Holscher runs furthest behind in McPherson, Harvey, Miami. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 83% of voters, 44 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.13 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 68% of voters, 47 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.41 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 53 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.04 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Cindy Holscher: Immigration voters 22 to 78, Small counties 34 to 64, Voters who can afford daily costs 43 to 57. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$65K cash against $430K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 48% of the 154,074 ballots in Kansas so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 16.6 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 3.0 points toward Cindy Holscher. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Ty Masterson's strongest asset
Cash: $430K in the bank against $65K for Cindy Holscher.
- Close the gap
Ty Masterson trails by 3.1 and wins 32% of simulations. Closing it takes about 17,998 voters switching sides, or 35,996 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.3 and R +5.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +4.2. Your best recent poll is On Point Polling at R +6.5; your worst is Global Strategy Group (D) at D +0.5. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Butler, a projected net 6,946 votes; Montgomery, a projected net 4,527 votes; Reno, a projected net 4,100 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sedgwick, D +5.8, 16.1% of the vote; Leavenworth, R +5.4, 2.7% of the vote; Crawford, R +4.2, 1.2% of the vote; Harvey, R +5.9, 1.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ty Masterson runs furthest behind in Ellis, Lyon, Wyandotte. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 83% of voters, 54 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.13 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 68% of voters, 53 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.41 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 47 to 53, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.04 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ty Masterson: Black voters 11 to 87, Asian and other voters 23 to 74, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 30 to 67. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$430K cash against $65K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 39% of the 154,074 ballots in Kansas so far, against 48% for the other party. That is 16.6 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 3.0 points away from Ty Masterson. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Cindy Holscher's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 48% of the 154,074 ballots in Kansas so far, against 39% for the other party.
The map for Holscher
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson | D +25.6 | 25.2% | +74,304 |
| Douglas | D +58.9 | 4.6% | +31,102 |
| Wyandotte | D +51.1 | 3.9% | +22,710 |
| Shawnee | D +22.7 | 6.3% | +16,378 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sedgwick | D +5.8 | 16.1% | +10,724 |
| Leavenworth | R +5.4 | 2.7% | -1,705 |
| Crawford | R +4.2 | 1.2% | -600 |
| Harvey | R +5.9 | 1.2% | -841 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| McPherson | R +30.5 | 1.1% | -3,802 |
| Harvey | R +5.9 | 1.2% | -841 |
| Miami | R +23.8 | 1.3% | -3,664 |
The coalition
Holscher against Masterson among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters83% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.1
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202468% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree53% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties37% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.8
- Voters who can afford daily costs39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.3 and R +5.3
- Polling average
- R +4.2
- Partisan lean
- R +14.9
- Early vote effect
- D +3.0
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 0 | 479 LV | R +6.5 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 0 | 600 LV | R +2.5 |
| YouGov | 11 | 2,255 LV | R +3.8 |
| New York Times/Siena College | 15 | 605 LV | R +5.7 |
| Emerson College / Nexstar | 29 | 750 LV | R +6.2 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 29 | 800 LV | D +0.5 |
| co/efficient (R) | 35 | 915 LV | R +4.0 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Holscher | Masterson | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $811K | $1.5M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $65K | $430K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$4.2M
The early vote
Kansas, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 154,074
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +8.6
- Forecast expected
- R +8.0
- Against expectation
- 16.6 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-06Logan Phillips analyst
On Breaking Points he said Democrats have a shot in the Kansas governor race with a two to three point polling gap and that the Senate race is getting very uncomfortable for Roger Marshall. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-19Ty Masterson rally in Park City
Spoke alongside President Trump at a Monday night rally at Heartland Credit Union Arena where Trump affirmed his endorsement. Source