How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Oklahoma Senate
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas vs Kevin Hern
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 251
Raised $57K against $10.8M for Kevin Hern.
- Cash weight 200
$456 in the bank against $2.5M for Kevin Hern. As of 08/05/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas and $2.6M helping Kevin Hern.
- Early vote weight 1547
Registered Democrats cast 43% of the 24,971 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 45% for the other party. That is 1.6 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$300 in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $456 against $2.5M.
- Money weight 25100
Raised $10.8M against $57K for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas.
- Cash weight 20100
$2.5M in the bank against $456 for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $2.6M helping Kevin Hern and $0 helping N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas.
- Early vote weight 1553
Registered Republicans cast 45% of the 24,971 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 1.6 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas trails by 26.9 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 176,347 voters switching sides, or 352,693 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +33.9 and R +19.6. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Oklahoma, a projected net 17,109 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Oklahoma, D +6.8, 19.1% of the vote; Tulsa, R +11.1, 16.8% of the vote; Cleveland, R +7.3, 7.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas runs furthest behind in Washington, Mayes, Wagoner. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 38 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.06 points; Women, 51% of voters, 36 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.54 points; College graduates, 41% of voters, 35 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.04 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas: Immigration voters 14 to 76, Small counties 22 to 73, White voters 25 to 69. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$456 cash against $2.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 43% of the 24,971 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 45% for the other party. That is 1.6 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Kevin Hern's strongest asset
Cash: $2.5M in the bank against $456 for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas.
- Protect the lead
Kevin Hern leads by 26.9 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 352,693 votes; a one point swing is about 6,548 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +19.6 and R +33.9. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Tulsa, a projected net 24,256 votes; Rogers, a projected net 19,870 votes; Canadian, a projected net 18,528 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Oklahoma, D +6.8, 19.1% of the vote; Tulsa, R +11.1, 16.8% of the vote; Cleveland, R +7.3, 7.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Kevin Hern runs furthest behind in Carter, Bryan, Comanche. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 52 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.06 points; Women, 51% of voters, 58 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.54 points; College graduates, 41% of voters, 59 to 35, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.04 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Kevin Hern: Black voters 19 to 75, Health care and Social Security voters 41 to 48, Asian and other voters 44 to 49. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.5M cash against $456. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 45% of the 24,971 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 1.6 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward Kevin Hern. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 43% of the 24,971 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 45% for the other party.
The map for Thomas
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | D +6.8 | 19.1% | +17,109 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | D +6.8 | 19.1% | +17,109 |
| Tulsa | R +11.1 | 16.8% | -24,256 |
| Cleveland | R +7.3 | 7.8% | -7,500 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | R +48.1 | 1.5% | -9,329 |
| Mayes | R +57.6 | 1.1% | -8,159 |
| Wagoner | R +48.6 | 2.4% | -15,196 |
The coalition
Thomas against Hern among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Women51% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.5
- College graduates41% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
- Large counties36% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.8
- Immigration voters13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Small counties37% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
- White voters73% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +26.9
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +19.6 and R +33.9
- Polling average
- R +24.0
- Partisan lean
- R +33.4
- Early vote effect
- R +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 08/05/2026| Thomas | Hern | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $57K | $10.8M |
| Spent | $58K | $7.5M |
| Cash on hand | $456 | $2.5M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $2.6M |
| Google ads | $300 | $0 |
The early vote
Oklahoma, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 24,971
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +1.5
- Forecast expected
- D +0.1
- Against expectation
- 1.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-01Donald Trump rally in Durant
Evening midterm rally at Choctaw Event Center. Source