How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Washington WA-03
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs John Braun
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2575
Raised $8.8M against $3.0M for John Braun.
- Cash weight 2062
$2.1M in the bank against $1.3M for John Braun. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1542
Outside groups spent $3.6M helping Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and $5.1M helping John Braun.
- Activity weight 1025
$372K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2525
Raised $3.0M against $8.8M for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
- Cash weight 2038
$1.3M in the bank against $2.1M for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1559
Outside groups spent $5.1M helping John Braun and $3.6M helping Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
- Activity weight 1050
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $177K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads by 1.5 in the forecast and wins 59% of simulations. The cushion is about 4,059 votes; a one point swing is about 1,371 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +6.0 and D +9.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.1M cash against $1.3M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.0 points toward Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- John Braun's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $5.1M helping John Braun and $3.6M helping Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
- Close the gap
John Braun trails by 1.5 and wins 41% of simulations. Closing it takes about 2,030 voters switching sides, or 4,059 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +9.4 and R +6.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.3M cash against $2.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.0 points away from John Braun. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's strongest asset
Money: Raised $8.8M against $3.0M for John Braun.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +1.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +9.4 and R +6.0
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +5.1
- Early vote effect
- D +2.0
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Perez | Braun | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $8.8M | $3.0M |
| Spent | $4.3M | $1.9M |
| Cash on hand | $2.1M | $1.3M |
| Outside money for | $3.6M | $5.1M |
| Google ads | $373K | $177K |
The early vote
Washington, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 773,792
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +46.3
- Forecast expected
- D +32.8
- Against expectation
- 13.5 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watch