How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Virginia VA-01
Shannon Taylor vs Rob Wittman
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2545
Raised $4.2M against $5.2M for Rob Wittman.
- Cash weight 2031
$1.0M in the bank against $2.2M for Rob Wittman. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1588
Outside groups spent $7.9M helping Shannon Taylor and $1.1M helping Rob Wittman.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $206K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2555
Raised $5.2M against $4.2M for Shannon Taylor.
- Cash weight 2069
$2.2M in the bank against $1.0M for Shannon Taylor. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1512
Outside groups spent $1.1M helping Rob Wittman and $7.9M helping Shannon Taylor.
- Activity weight 1025
$246K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Shannon Taylor trails by 1.1 and wins 41% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,893 voters switching sides, or 3,786 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.9 and D +5.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.0M cash against $2.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from Shannon Taylor. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Rob Wittman's strongest asset
Cash: $2.2M in the bank against $1.0M for Shannon Taylor.
- Protect the lead
Rob Wittman leads by 1.1 in the forecast and wins 59% of simulations. The cushion is about 3,786 votes; a one point swing is about 1,690 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.7 and R +7.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.2M cash against $1.0M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Rob Wittman. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Shannon Taylor's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $7.9M helping Shannon Taylor and $1.1M helping Rob Wittman.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.7 and R +7.9
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +7.1
- Early vote effect
- R +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Taylor | Wittman | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $4.2M | $5.2M |
| Spent | $1.1M | $4.4M |
| Cash on hand | $1.0M | $2.2M |
| Outside money for | $7.9M | $1.1M |
| Google ads | $207K | $247K |
The early vote
Virginia, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 998,979
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +23.5
- Forecast expected
- D +24.8
- Against expectation
- 1.3 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-19Pete Buttigieg rally in Henrico
Henrico Theatre rally for three House flip targets. Source