How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Tennessee TN-08
Heidi Kuhn vs David Kustoff
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 254
Raised $97K against $2.5M for David Kustoff.
- Cash weight 200
$13K in the bank against $3.0M for David Kustoff. As of 07/17/2026.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.01 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.1 points of that tide, a tailwind for Heidi Kuhn.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $13K against $3.0M.
- Money weight 2596
Raised $2.5M against $97K for Heidi Kuhn.
- Cash weight 20100
$3.0M in the bank against $13K for Heidi Kuhn. As of 07/17/2026.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.01 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.1 points of that tide, a headwind for David Kustoff.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Heidi Kuhn trails by 4.1 and wins 29% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,225 voters switching sides, or 10,450 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +13.3 and D +5.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$13K cash against $3.0M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points away from Heidi Kuhn. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- David Kustoff's strongest asset
Cash: $3.0M in the bank against $13K for Heidi Kuhn.
- Protect the lead
David Kustoff leads by 4.1 in the forecast and wins 71% of simulations. The cushion is about 10,450 votes; a one point swing is about 1,287 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.2 and R +13.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$3.0M cash against $13K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.2 points toward David Kustoff. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Heidi Kuhn's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +4.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.2 and R +13.3
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +18.7
- Early vote effect
- R +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/17/2026| Kuhn | Kustoff | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $97K | $2.5M |
| Spent | $26K | $1.3M |
| Cash on hand | $13K | $3.0M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $0 |
The early vote
Tennessee, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,280,642
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +25.8
- Forecast expected
- R +25.2
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.