How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Ohio OH-07
Brian Poindexter vs Max Miller
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2548
Raised $3.1M against $3.3M for Max Miller.
- Cash weight 2090
$1.1M in the bank against $123K for Max Miller. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1588
Outside groups spent $7.8M helping Brian Poindexter and $1.0M helping Max Miller.
- National tide weight 1578
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.91 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Brian Poindexter.
- Activity weight 1025
$29K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2552
Raised $3.3M against $3.1M for Brian Poindexter.
- Cash weight 2010
$123K in the bank against $1.1M for Brian Poindexter. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1512
Outside groups spent $1.0M helping Max Miller and $7.8M helping Brian Poindexter.
- National tide weight 1522
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.91 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Max Miller.
- Activity weight 1025
$3K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $123K against $1.1M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Brian Poindexter leads by 2.8 in the forecast and wins 67% of simulations. The cushion is about 8,749 votes; a one point swing is about 1,591 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +5.4 and D +11.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.1M cash against $123K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Max Miller's strongest asset
Money: Raised $3.3M against $3.1M for Brian Poindexter.
- Close the gap
Max Miller trails by 2.8 and wins 33% of simulations. Closing it takes about 4,374 voters switching sides, or 8,749 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.1 and R +5.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$123K cash against $1.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Brian Poindexter's strongest asset
Cash: $1.1M in the bank against $123K for Max Miller.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +2.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.1 and R +5.4
- Polling average
- R +2.0
- Partisan lean
- R +11.0
- Early vote effect
- R +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Poindexter | Miller | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.1M | $3.3M |
| Spent | $2.0M | $3.3M |
| Cash on hand | $1.1M | $123K |
| Outside money for | $7.8M | $1.0M |
| Google ads | $29K | $3K |
The early vote
Ohio, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 1,486,955
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.1
- Forecast expected
- D +9.7
- Against expectation
- 1.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.