How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
New York NY-02
Pat Halpin vs Andrew Garbarino
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2513
Raised $577K against $4.0M for Andrew Garbarino.
- Cash weight 201
$46K in the bank against $3.5M for Andrew Garbarino. As of 09/30/2026.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $46K against $3.5M.
- Money weight 2587
Raised $4.0M against $577K for Pat Halpin.
- Cash weight 2099
$3.5M in the bank against $46K for Pat Halpin. As of 09/30/2026.
- Activity weight 1025
$45K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Pat Halpin trails by 3.5 and wins 29% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,214 voters switching sides, or 10,428 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.4 and D +4.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$46K cash against $3.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Andrew Garbarino's strongest asset
Cash: $3.5M in the bank against $46K for Pat Halpin.
- Protect the lead
Andrew Garbarino leads by 3.5 in the forecast and wins 71% of simulations. The cushion is about 10,428 votes; a one point swing is about 1,507 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +4.9 and R +11.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$3.5M cash against $46K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Pat Halpin's strongest asset
Money: Raised $577K against $4.0M for Andrew Garbarino.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +3.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +4.9 and R +11.4
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +9.6
- Early vote effect
- D +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Halpin | Garbarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $577K | $4.0M |
| Spent | $530K | $1.6M |
| Cash on hand | $46K | $3.5M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $45K |
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for New York yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.