How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Nevada NV-02
Teresa Benitez-Thompson vs David Flippo
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2522
Raised $790K against $2.9M for David Flippo.
- Cash weight 2054
$141K in the bank against $118K for David Flippo. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 151
Outside groups spent $16K helping Teresa Benitez-Thompson and $2.6M helping David Flippo.
- Early vote weight 766
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 633,264 ballots in Nevada so far, against 34% for the other party. That is 8.9 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1577
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.85 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.9 points of that tide, a tailwind for Teresa Benitez-Thompson.
- Money weight 2578
Raised $2.9M against $790K for Teresa Benitez-Thompson.
- Cash weight 2046
$118K in the bank against $141K for Teresa Benitez-Thompson. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1599
Outside groups spent $2.6M helping David Flippo and $16K helping Teresa Benitez-Thompson.
- Early vote weight 734
Registered Republicans cast 34% of the 633,264 ballots in Nevada so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 8.9 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1523
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.85 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.9 points of that tide, a headwind for David Flippo.
- Activity weight 1025
$17K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Teresa Benitez-Thompson trails by 5.5 and wins 19% of simulations. Closing it takes about 8,660 voters switching sides, or 17,321 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +13.6 and D +2.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$141K cash against $118K. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 633,264 ballots in Nevada so far, against 34% for the other party. That is 8.9 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.2 points toward Teresa Benitez-Thompson. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- David Flippo's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $2.6M helping David Flippo and $16K helping Teresa Benitez-Thompson.
- Protect the lead
David Flippo leads by 5.5 in the forecast and wins 81% of simulations. The cushion is about 17,321 votes; a one point swing is about 1,589 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +2.3 and R +13.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$118K cash against $141K. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 34% of the 633,264 ballots in Nevada so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 8.9 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.2 points away from David Flippo. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Teresa Benitez-Thompson's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +5.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +2.3 and R +13.6
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +14.3
- Early vote effect
- D +2.2
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Benitez-Thompson | Flippo | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $790K | $2.9M |
| Spent | $116K | $2.2M |
| Cash on hand | $141K | $118K |
| Outside money for | $16K | $2.6M |
| Google ads | $0 | $17K |
The early vote
Nevada, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 633,264
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +5.9
- Forecast expected
- R +3.0
- Against expectation
- 8.9 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watch