How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
North Carolina NC-01
Don Davis vs Laurie Buckhout
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2555
Raised $5.6M against $4.6M for Laurie Buckhout.
- Cash weight 2066
$3.6M in the bank against $1.9M for Laurie Buckhout. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1581
Outside groups spent $9.5M helping Don Davis and $2.3M helping Laurie Buckhout.
- Early vote weight 762
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 26% for the other party. That is 4.8 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1578
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.90 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.6 points of that tide, a tailwind for Don Davis.
- Activity weight 1050
1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $233K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2545
Raised $4.6M against $5.6M for Don Davis.
- Cash weight 2034
$1.9M in the bank against $3.6M for Don Davis. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1519
Outside groups spent $2.3M helping Laurie Buckhout and $9.5M helping Don Davis.
- Early vote weight 738
Registered Republicans cast 26% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 4.8 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1522
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.90 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.6 points of that tide, a headwind for Laurie Buckhout.
- Activity weight 1025
$263K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Don Davis leads by 3.6 in the forecast and wins 72% of simulations. The cushion is about 11,266 votes; a one point swing is about 1,578 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +4.4 and D +11.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$3.6M cash against $1.9M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 39% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 26% for the other party. That is 4.8 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.2 points away from Don Davis. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Laurie Buckhout's strongest asset
Money: Raised $4.6M against $5.6M for Don Davis.
- Close the gap
Laurie Buckhout trails by 3.6 and wins 28% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,633 voters switching sides, or 11,266 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.7 and R +4.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.9M cash against $3.6M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 26% of the 2,353,233 ballots in North Carolina so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 4.8 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.2 points toward Laurie Buckhout. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Don Davis's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $9.5M helping Don Davis and $2.3M helping Laurie Buckhout.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.7 and R +4.4
- Polling average
- D +3.0
- Partisan lean
- R +12.7
- Early vote effect
- R +1.2
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Davis | Buckhout | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $5.6M | $4.6M |
| Spent | $988K | $2.9M |
| Cash on hand | $3.6M | $1.9M |
| Outside money for | $9.5M | $2.3M |
| Google ads | $233K | $263K |
The early vote
North Carolina, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 2,353,233
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +13.7
- Forecast expected
- D +18.5
- Against expectation
- 4.8 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved Rep. Don Davis's North Carolina 1st District from Tilt Republican to Toss Up. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.