How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Florida FL-14
Kathy Castor vs Mike Beltran
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2563
Raised $4.5M against $2.6M for Mike Beltran.
- Cash weight 2047
$1.7M in the bank against $1.9M for Mike Beltran. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1542
Outside groups spent $4.4M helping Kathy Castor and $6.0M helping Mike Beltran.
- Early vote weight 740
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 7.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1582
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.07 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 15.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Kathy Castor.
- Activity weight 1025
$74K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2537
Raised $2.6M against $4.5M for Kathy Castor.
- Cash weight 2053
$1.9M in the bank against $1.7M for Kathy Castor. As of 07/29/2026.
- Air cover weight 1558
Outside groups spent $6.0M helping Mike Beltran and $4.4M helping Kathy Castor.
- Early vote weight 760
Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 7.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1518
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.07 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 15.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Mike Beltran.
- Activity weight 1025
$54K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Kathy Castor leads by 3.8 in the forecast and wins 75% of simulations. The cushion is about 12,223 votes; a one point swing is about 1,596 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +3.5 and D +11.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.7M cash against $1.9M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 38% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 41% for the other party. That is 7.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.1 points away from Kathy Castor. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Mike Beltran's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party.
- Close the gap
Mike Beltran trails by 3.8 and wins 25% of simulations. Closing it takes about 6,111 voters switching sides, or 12,223 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.2 and R +3.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.9M cash against $1.7M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 41% of the 4,717,903 ballots in Florida so far, against 38% for the other party. That is 7.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 2.1 points toward Mike Beltran. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Kathy Castor's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.2 and R +3.5
- Polling average
- D +3.0
- Partisan lean
- R +7.7
- Early vote effect
- R +2.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/29/2026| Castor | Beltran | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $4.5M | $2.6M |
| Spent | $820K | $177K |
| Cash on hand | $1.7M | $1.9M |
| Outside money for | $4.4M | $6.0M |
| Google ads | $74K | $54K |
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-30- Ballots cast
- 4,717,903
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +2.5
- Forecast expected
- D +4.8
- Against expectation
- 7.3 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.