How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Colorado CO-03
Dwayne Romero vs Jeff Hurd
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2528
Raised $1.5M against $4.0M for Jeff Hurd.
- Cash weight 205
$84K in the bank against $1.8M for Jeff Hurd. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Dwayne Romero and $1.3M helping Jeff Hurd.
- Early vote weight 765
Registered Democrats cast 33% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 4.9 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$57K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $84K against $1.8M.
- Money weight 2572
Raised $4.0M against $1.5M for Dwayne Romero.
- Cash weight 2095
$1.8M in the bank against $84K for Dwayne Romero. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $1.3M helping Jeff Hurd and $0 helping Dwayne Romero.
- Early vote weight 735
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 33% for the other party. That is 4.9 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
$151K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Dwayne Romero trails by 3.6 and wins 28% of simulations. Closing it takes about 6,345 voters switching sides, or 12,690 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.5 and D +4.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$84K cash against $1.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 33% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 4.9 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points toward Dwayne Romero. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Jeff Hurd's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $1.3M helping Jeff Hurd and $0 helping Dwayne Romero.
- Protect the lead
Jeff Hurd leads by 3.6 in the forecast and wins 72% of simulations. The cushion is about 12,690 votes; a one point swing is about 1,777 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +4.2 and R +11.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.8M cash against $84K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 33% for the other party. That is 4.9 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points away from Jeff Hurd. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Dwayne Romero's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 33% of the 727,322 ballots in Colorado so far, against 25% for the other party.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +3.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +4.2 and R +11.5
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +10.7
- Early vote effect
- D +1.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Romero | Hurd | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.5M | $4.0M |
| Spent | $632K | $1.8M |
| Cash on hand | $84K | $1.8M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $1.3M |
| Google ads | $57K | $151K |
The early vote
Colorado, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 727,322
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +8.2
- Forecast expected
- D +3.3
- Against expectation
- 4.9 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.