How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Maine Governor
Hannah Pingree vs Bobby Charles
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2570
Raised $1.2M against $509K for Bobby Charles.
- Cash weight 2075
$1.2M in the bank against $395K for Bobby Charles.
- Early vote weight 1587
Registered Democrats cast 50% of the 179,532 ballots in Maine so far, against 21% for the other party. That is 2.2 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
4 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Money weight 2530
Raised $509K against $1.2M for Hannah Pingree.
- Cash weight 2025
$395K in the bank against $1.2M for Hannah Pingree.
- Early vote weight 1513
Registered Republicans cast 21% of the 179,532 ballots in Maine so far, against 50% for the other party. That is 2.2 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- Activity weight 1025
4 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Hannah Pingree leads by 11.6 in the forecast and wins 97% of simulations. The cushion is about 86,157 votes; a one point swing is about 3,704 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +4.0 and D +19.0. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +11.3. Your best recent poll is Maine People's Resource Center (D) at D +14.3; your worst is University of New Hampshire at D +8.3. 10 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Cumberland, a projected net 72,714 votes; York, a projected net 20,736 votes; Hancock, a projected net 6,181 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Penobscot, R +8.5, 10.4% of the vote; Kennebec, R +0.2, 8.9% of the vote; Androscoggin, R +5.3, 7.1% of the vote; Oxford, R +8.6, 4.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Hannah Pingree runs furthest behind in Androscoggin, Penobscot, Kennebec. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 94% of voters, 51 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.68 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 76% of voters, 54 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.79 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 57 to 34, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.09 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Hannah Pingree: Immigration voters 26 to 64, Men 47 to 47, Midsize counties 47 to 47. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $395K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 50% of the 179,532 ballots in Maine so far, against 21% for the other party. That is 2.2 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Hannah Pingree. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Bobby Charles's strongest asset
Money: Raised $509K against $1.2M for Hannah Pingree.
- Close the gap
Bobby Charles trails by 11.6 and wins 3% of simulations. Closing it takes about 43,079 voters switching sides, or 86,157 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +19.0 and D +4.0. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +11.3. Your best recent poll is University of New Hampshire at D +8.3; your worst is Maine People's Resource Center (D) at D +14.3. 10 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Penobscot, a projected net 6,543 votes; Aroostook, a projected net 6,383 votes; Somerset, a projected net 5,419 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Penobscot, R +8.5, 10.4% of the vote; Kennebec, R +0.2, 8.9% of the vote; Androscoggin, R +5.3, 7.1% of the vote; Oxford, R +8.6, 4.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Bobby Charles runs furthest behind in Sagadahoc, York, Hancock. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 94% of voters, 43 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.68 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 76% of voters, 37 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.79 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 34 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.09 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Bobby Charles: Health care and Social Security voters 18 to 72, Large counties 27 to 68, Corruption voters 28 to 63. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$395K cash against $1.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 21% of the 179,532 ballots in Maine so far, against 50% for the other party. That is 2.2 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Bobby Charles. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Hannah Pingree's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 50% of the 179,532 ballots in Maine so far, against 21% for the other party.
The map for Pingree
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland | D +40.9 | 24% | +72,714 |
| York | D +17.9 | 15.7% | +20,736 |
| Hancock | D +18.9 | 4.4% | +6,181 |
| Sagadahoc | D +26.2 | 3% | +5,781 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penobscot | R +8.5 | 10.4% | -6,543 |
| Kennebec | R +0.2 | 8.9% | -130 |
| Androscoggin | R +5.3 | 7.1% | -2,769 |
| Oxford | R +8.6 | 4.1% | -2,625 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Androscoggin | R +5.3 | 7.1% | -2,769 |
| Penobscot | R +8.5 | 10.4% | -6,543 |
| Kennebec | R +0.2 | 8.9% | -130 |
The coalition
Pingree against Charles among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters94% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.7
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202476% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Women55% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Men45% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
- Midsize counties46% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +11.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +19.0 and D +4.0
- Polling average
- D +11.3
- Partisan lean
- D +8.6
- Early vote effect
- D +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 0 | 1,514 LV | D +9.7 |
| Suffolk University | 4 | 500 LV | D +9.8 |
| The Washington Post-Schar School | 10 | 800 LV | D +12.0 |
| Marist College | 11 | 1,505 RV | D +9.7 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 14 | 1,144 LV | D +11.1 |
| co/efficient (R) | 15 | 1,240 LV | D +12.6 |
| Maine People's Resource Center (D) | 16 | 684 LV | D +14.3 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP | 23 | 982 LV | D +12.4 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 23 | 619 LV | D +12.4 |
| University of New Hampshire | 24 | 1,312 LV | D +8.3 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 31 | 650 LV | D +10.2 |
| YouGov | 37 | 1,335 LV | D +10.3 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Pingree | Charles | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.2M | $509K |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $1.2M | $395K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Maine, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 179,532
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +29.1
- Forecast expected
- D +26.8
- Against expectation
- 2.2 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-29Bobby Charles announced in Auburn
Open one on one conversations with voters, including critics, at Androscoggin County Republican headquarters in the Auburn Mall. Source
- 2026-10-17Elizabeth Warren rally in Portland
Warren rallied about 1,000 people at Deering Oaks Park on the No Kings day of action with Jackson and Pingree. Source
- 2026-10-17Hannah Pingree rally in Portland
Greeted diners at Becky's Diner and spoke at an Indivisible Greater Portland rally with Senate candidate Troy Jackson and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Source
- 2026-10-12Bobby Charles town hall in Wells
Held a town hall with former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and pledged day one executive action. Source
- 2026-10-08Hannah Pingree debate in Bangor
Second debate at the Gracie Theatre at Husson University, hosted by the Portland Press Herald, Maine Public and NEWSCENTER Maine. Source
- 2026-10-08Bobby Charles debate in Bangor
Second debate at the Gracie Theatre at Husson University, hosted by the Portland Press Herald, Maine Public and NEWSCENTER Maine. Source
- 2026-10-03Bobby Charles town hall in Penobscot
Spoke to about 30 people at the Penobscot Community School gym with local Republican candidates and State Rep. Russ White. Source
- 2026-10-01Hannah Pingree debate in Portland
First gubernatorial debate, hosted by News Center Maine and the Maine State Chamber of Commerce, with independent Rick Bennett. Source
- 2026-10-01Bobby Charles debate in Portland
First gubernatorial debate, hosted by News Center Maine and the Maine State Chamber of Commerce, with independent Rick Bennett. Source