How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Massachusetts Governor
Maura Healey vs Michael Minogue
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2526
Raised $623K against $1.8M for Michael Minogue.
- Cash weight 2082
$6.9M in the bank against $1.5M for Michael Minogue.
- Money weight 2574
Raised $1.8M against $623K for Maura Healey.
- Cash weight 2018
$1.5M in the bank against $6.9M for Maura Healey.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Maura Healey leads by 27.2 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 777,315 votes; a one point swing is about 14,284 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +19.6 and D +34.6. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +22.0. Your best recent poll is UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov at D +24.0; your worst is University of New Hampshire at D +16.3. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Middlesex, a projected net 289,793 votes; Suffolk, a projected net 165,097 votes; Norfolk, a projected net 90,083 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Worcester, D +9.0, 11.8% of the vote; Plymouth, D +6.2, 8.4% of the vote; Bristol, D +6.5, 7.6% of the vote; Hampden, D +6.3, 5.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Maura Healey runs furthest behind in Hampden, Plymouth, Essex. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 77% of voters, 57 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.86 points; Men, 46% of voters, 57 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.29 points; Voters without a degree, 44% of voters, 60 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.23 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Maura Healey: Immigration voters 37 to 61, Voters who can afford daily costs 55 to 43, White voters 57 to 42. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.9M cash against $1.5M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Maura Healey. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Michael Minogue's strongest asset
Money: Raised $1.8M against $623K for Maura Healey.
- Close the gap
Michael Minogue trails by 27.2 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 388,657 voters switching sides, or 777,315 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +34.6 and D +19.6. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +22.0. Your best recent poll is University of New Hampshire at D +16.3; your worst is UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov at D +24.0. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Worcester, D +9.0, 11.8% of the vote; Plymouth, D +6.2, 8.4% of the vote; Bristol, D +6.5, 7.6% of the vote; Hampden, D +6.3, 5.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Michael Minogue runs furthest behind in Suffolk, Bristol, Middlesex. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 77% of voters, 42 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.86 points; Men, 46% of voters, 41 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.29 points; Voters without a degree, 44% of voters, 38 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.23 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Michael Minogue: Black voters 10 to 89, Asian and other voters 16 to 82, Health care and Social Security voters 19 to 79. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.5M cash against $6.9M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Michael Minogue. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Maura Healey's strongest asset
Cash: $6.9M in the bank against $1.5M for Michael Minogue.
The map for Healey
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex | D +42.5 | 23.8% | +289,793 |
| Suffolk | D +63.2 | 9.1% | +165,097 |
| Norfolk | D +28.2 | 11.2% | +90,083 |
| Essex | D +18.9 | 11.4% | +61,882 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worcester | D +9.0 | 11.8% | +30,490 |
| Plymouth | D +6.2 | 8.4% | +15,008 |
| Bristol | D +6.5 | 7.6% | +14,122 |
| Hampden | D +6.3 | 5.8% | +10,512 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hampden | D +6.3 | 5.8% | +10,512 |
| Plymouth | D +6.2 | 8.4% | +15,008 |
| Essex | D +18.9 | 11.4% | +61,882 |
The coalition
Healey against Minogue among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters77% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.9
- Men46% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
- Voters without a degree45% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.2
- Voters who can afford daily costs38% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Voters who can afford daily costs38% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
- White voters77% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +27.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +34.6 and D +19.6
- Polling average
- D +22.0
- Partisan lean
- D +27.4
- Early vote effect
- D +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University/Boston Globe | 0 | 500 LV | D +20.9 |
| UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov | 3 | 800 RV | D +24.0 |
| MassINC Polling Group for CommonWealth Beacon | 23 | 800 LV | D +21.8 |
| University of New Hampshire | 24 | 564 LV | D +16.3 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Healey | Minogue | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $623K | $1.8M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $6.9M | $1.5M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for Massachusetts yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.