How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Hawaii Governor
Josh Green vs Gary Cordery
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2592
Raised $3.7M against $313K for Gary Cordery.
- Money weight 258
Raised $313K against $3.7M for Josh Green.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Josh Green leads by 36.5 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 166,917 votes; a one point swing is about 2,289 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +27.1 and D +45.7. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Honolulu, a projected net 108,769 votes; Hawaii, a projected net 28,041 votes; Maui, a projected net 23,165 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Josh Green runs furthest behind in Kauai, Hawaii. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 28% of voters, 50 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.39 points; Immigration voters, 9% of voters, 43 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 0.43 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Josh Green: Immigration voters 43 to 57, White voters 50 to 50, 2024 voters who skipped 2022 65 to 35. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points toward Josh Green. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Gary Cordery's strongest asset
Money: Raised $313K against $3.7M for Josh Green.
- Close the gap
Gary Cordery trails by 36.5 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 83,458 voters switching sides, or 166,917 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +45.7 and D +27.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Gary Cordery runs furthest behind in Maui. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 28% of voters, 50 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.39 points; Immigration voters, 9% of voters, 57 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 0.43 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Gary Cordery: Health care and Social Security voters 16 to 84, Corruption voters 18 to 82, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 23 to 77. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 1.1 points away from Gary Cordery. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Josh Green's strongest asset
Money: Raised $3.7M against $313K for Gary Cordery.
The map for Green
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honolulu | D +35.5 | 66.8% | +108,769 |
| Hawaii | D +39.6 | 15.5% | +28,041 |
| Maui | D +42.0 | 12% | +23,165 |
| Kauai | D +26.9 | 5.6% | +6,945 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kauai | D +26.9 | 5.6% | +6,945 |
| Hawaii | D +39.6 | 15.5% | +28,041 |
The coalition
Green against Cordery among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters28% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.4
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- White voters28% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.4
- 2024 voters who skipped 202217% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +36.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +45.7 and D +27.1
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- D +25.1
- Early vote effect
- D +1.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Green | Cordery | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.7M | $313K |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | n/a | n/a |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Hawaii, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 98,017
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +29.9
- Forecast expected
- D +18.6
- Against expectation
- 11.2 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.