How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Wisconsin WI-03
Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van Orden
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2558
Raised $12.0M against $8.8M for Derrick Van Orden.
- Cash weight 2028
$1.8M in the bank against $4.7M for Derrick Van Orden. As of 07/22/2026.
- Air cover weight 1576
Outside groups spent $7.2M helping Rebecca Cooke and $2.3M helping Derrick Van Orden.
- Activity weight 1025
$832K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2542
Raised $8.8M against $12.0M for Rebecca Cooke.
- Cash weight 2072
$4.7M in the bank against $1.8M for Rebecca Cooke. As of 07/22/2026.
- Air cover weight 1524
Outside groups spent $2.3M helping Derrick Van Orden and $7.2M helping Rebecca Cooke.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $43K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Rebecca Cooke leads by 3.6 in the forecast and wins 73% of simulations. The cushion is about 13,722 votes; a one point swing is about 1,880 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +3.5 and D +10.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.8M cash against $4.7M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Derrick Van Orden's strongest asset
Cash: $4.7M in the bank against $1.8M for Rebecca Cooke.
- Close the gap
Derrick Van Orden trails by 3.6 and wins 27% of simulations. Closing it takes about 6,861 voters switching sides, or 13,722 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +10.9 and R +3.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$4.7M cash against $1.8M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Rebecca Cooke's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $7.2M helping Rebecca Cooke and $2.3M helping Derrick Van Orden.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +10.9 and R +3.5
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +7.6
- Early vote effect
- D +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/22/2026| Cooke | Orden | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $12.0M | $8.8M |
| Spent | $6.8M | $3.4M |
| Cash on hand | $1.8M | $4.7M |
| Outside money for | $7.2M | $2.3M |
| Google ads | $832K | $43K |
The early vote
Wisconsin, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 525,954
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +24.9
- Forecast expected
- D +25.6
- Against expectation
- 0.7 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-07Mike Johnson rally in Sparta
Johnson rallied with Van Orden at the local American Legion. Source