How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Wisconsin WI-01
Mitchell Berman vs Bryan Steil
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2521
Raised $1.6M against $6.3M for Bryan Steil.
- Cash weight 207
$338K in the bank against $4.2M for Bryan Steil. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1545
Outside groups spent $2.3M helping Mitchell Berman and $2.9M helping Bryan Steil.
- Activity weight 1025
$52K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $338K against $4.2M.
- Money weight 2580
Raised $6.3M against $1.6M for Mitchell Berman.
- Cash weight 2093
$4.2M in the bank against $338K for Mitchell Berman. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1555
Outside groups spent $2.9M helping Bryan Steil and $2.3M helping Mitchell Berman.
- Activity weight 1025
$198K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Mitchell Berman trails by 1.7 and wins 39% of simulations. Closing it takes about 3,251 voters switching sides, or 6,501 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +9.9 and D +6.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$338K cash against $4.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Bryan Steil's strongest asset
Cash: $4.2M in the bank against $338K for Mitchell Berman.
- Protect the lead
Bryan Steil leads by 1.7 in the forecast and wins 61% of simulations. The cushion is about 6,501 votes; a one point swing is about 1,879 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +6.8 and R +9.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$4.2M cash against $338K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Mitchell Berman's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $2.3M helping Mitchell Berman and $2.9M helping Bryan Steil.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +6.8 and R +9.9
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +5.0
- Early vote effect
- D +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Berman | Steil | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.6M | $6.3M |
| Spent | $1.3M | $4.3M |
| Cash on hand | $338K | $4.2M |
| Outside money for | $2.3M | $2.9M |
| Google ads | $52K | $198K |
The early vote
Wisconsin, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 525,954
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +24.9
- Forecast expected
- D +25.6
- Against expectation
- 0.7 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.