How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Virginia VA-02
Elaine Luria vs Jen Kiggans
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2550
Raised $7.4M against $7.2M for Jen Kiggans.
- Cash weight 2047
$1.7M in the bank against $2.0M for Jen Kiggans. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1560
Outside groups spent $5.1M helping Elaine Luria and $3.4M helping Jen Kiggans.
- Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $150K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2550
Raised $7.2M against $7.4M for Elaine Luria.
- Cash weight 2053
$2.0M in the bank against $1.7M for Elaine Luria. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1540
Outside groups spent $3.4M helping Jen Kiggans and $5.1M helping Elaine Luria.
- Activity weight 1050
1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $232K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Elaine Luria leads by 3.0 in the forecast and wins 71% of simulations. The cushion is about 9,959 votes; a one point swing is about 1,688 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +3.8 and D +9.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.7M cash against $2.0M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points away from Elaine Luria. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Jen Kiggans's strongest asset
Cash: $2.0M in the bank against $1.7M for Elaine Luria.
- Close the gap
Jen Kiggans trails by 3.0 and wins 29% of simulations. Closing it takes about 4,980 voters switching sides, or 9,959 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +9.7 and R +3.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.0M cash against $1.7M. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.4 points toward Jen Kiggans. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Elaine Luria's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $5.1M helping Elaine Luria and $3.4M helping Jen Kiggans.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +9.7 and R +3.8
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +0.5
- Early vote effect
- R +0.4
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Luria | Kiggans | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $7.4M | $7.2M |
| Spent | $5.6M | $5.3M |
| Cash on hand | $1.7M | $2.0M |
| Outside money for | $5.1M | $3.4M |
| Google ads | $150K | $232K |
The early vote
Virginia, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 998,979
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +23.5
- Forecast expected
- D +24.8
- Against expectation
- 1.3 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Dave Wasserman analyst
Told Mediaite that Jen Kiggans's 2nd District is a key early election night bellwether. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-19Pete Buttigieg rally in Henrico
Henrico Theatre rally for three House flip targets. Source