How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Texas TX-35
Johnny Garcia vs Carlos De La Cruz
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2550
Raised $1.9M against $1.9M for Carlos De La Cruz.
- Cash weight 2040
$323K in the bank against $476K for Carlos De La Cruz. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1546
Outside groups spent $6.7M helping Johnny Garcia and $7.7M helping Carlos De La Cruz.
- Activity weight 1025
$5K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2550
Raised $1.9M against $1.9M for Johnny Garcia.
- Cash weight 2060
$476K in the bank against $323K for Johnny Garcia. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1554
Outside groups spent $7.7M helping Carlos De La Cruz and $6.7M helping Johnny Garcia.
- Activity weight 1075
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 2 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $18K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Johnny Garcia leads by 0.6 in the forecast and wins 53% of simulations. The cushion is about 1,472 votes; a one point swing is about 1,315 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.7 and D +9.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$323K cash against $476K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Johnny Garcia. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Carlos De La Cruz's strongest asset
Activity: 3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
Carlos De La Cruz trails by 0.6 and wins 47% of simulations. Closing it takes about 736 voters switching sides, or 1,472 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +9.0 and R +7.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$476K cash against $323K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Carlos De La Cruz. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Johnny Garcia's strongest asset
Money: Raised $1.9M against $1.9M for Carlos De La Cruz.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +9.0 and R +7.7
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +7.5
- Early vote effect
- D +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Garcia | Cruz | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.9M | $1.9M |
| Spent | $609K | $1.4M |
| Cash on hand | $323K | $476K |
| Outside money for | $6.7M | $7.7M |
| Google ads | $5K | $18K |
The early vote
Texas, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 3,576,004
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +8.4
- Forecast expected
- R +9.4
- Against expectation
- 1.0 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved Rep. Monica De La Cruz's Texas 15th District from Tilt Republican to Toss Up. Source
- 2026-10-14Rick Tyler commentator, leans R
The former Cruz spokesman gave a brutal midterm forecast on CNN centered on the Paxton vs Talarico race. Source
- 2026-08-30Kristen Welker host
Asked Ted Cruz whether he agrees with a GOP colleague that Paxton is lazy. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-13Mike Johnson rally in Corpus Christi
Johnson held a Corpus Christi rally with South Texas House candidates; AP later confirmed he campaigned in southern Texas that week. Source
- 2026-10-07Donald Trump rally in San Antonio
Freeman Coliseum rally with Paxton. Source
- 2026-10-01Ted Cruz rally in Denton
Cruz is listed among participants at Trump's Peterbilt Motors stop with Paxton. Source
- 2026-08-27Mike Johnson event in San Patricio County
Johnson joined Rep. Monica De La Cruz on the Thursday morning of his South Texas tour. Source
- 2026-08-26Mike Johnson rally in San Antonio
Johnson rallied at a South Side VFW post for De La Cruz, calling the district the whole enchilada. Source