How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Texas TX-24
Kevin Burge vs Beth Van Duyne
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2510
Raised $317K against $2.9M for Beth Van Duyne.
- Cash weight 203
$80K in the bank against $2.4M for Beth Van Duyne. As of 09/30/2026.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $80K against $2.4M.
- Money weight 2590
Raised $2.9M against $317K for Kevin Burge.
- Cash weight 2097
$2.4M in the bank against $80K for Kevin Burge. As of 09/30/2026.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Kevin Burge leads by 1.8 in the forecast and wins 61% of simulations. The cushion is about 4,878 votes; a one point swing is about 1,325 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +6.6 and D +10.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$80K cash against $2.4M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Kevin Burge. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Beth Van Duyne's strongest asset
Cash: $2.4M in the bank against $80K for Kevin Burge.
- Close the gap
Beth Van Duyne trails by 1.8 and wins 39% of simulations. Closing it takes about 2,439 voters switching sides, or 4,878 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +10.3 and R +6.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.4M cash against $80K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Beth Van Duyne. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Kevin Burge's strongest asset
Money: Raised $317K against $2.9M for Beth Van Duyne.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +1.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +10.3 and R +6.6
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +13.7
- Early vote effect
- D +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Burge | Duyne | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $317K | $2.9M |
| Spent | $237K | $2.4M |
| Cash on hand | $80K | $2.4M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $0 |
The early vote
Texas, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 3,576,004
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +8.4
- Forecast expected
- R +9.4
- Against expectation
- 1.0 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.