How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Texas TX-23
Katy Padilla Stout vs Brandon Herrera
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2524
Raised $977K against $3.1M for Brandon Herrera.
- Cash weight 2024
$171K in the bank against $554K for Brandon Herrera. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1542
Outside groups spent $1.0M helping Katy Padilla Stout and $1.4M helping Brandon Herrera.
- Activity weight 1025
$34K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2576
Raised $3.1M against $977K for Katy Padilla Stout.
- Cash weight 2076
$554K in the bank against $171K for Katy Padilla Stout. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1558
Outside groups spent $1.4M helping Brandon Herrera and $1.0M helping Katy Padilla Stout.
- Activity weight 1025
$16K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Katy Padilla Stout trails by 3.6 and wins 30% of simulations. Closing it takes about 4,829 voters switching sides, or 9,658 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +12.0 and D +4.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$171K cash against $554K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points toward Katy Padilla Stout. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Brandon Herrera's strongest asset
Cash: $554K in the bank against $171K for Katy Padilla Stout.
- Protect the lead
Brandon Herrera leads by 3.6 in the forecast and wins 70% of simulations. The cushion is about 9,658 votes; a one point swing is about 1,323 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +4.7 and R +12.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$554K cash against $171K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.3 points away from Brandon Herrera. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Katy Padilla Stout's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $1.0M helping Katy Padilla Stout and $1.4M helping Brandon Herrera.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +3.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +4.7 and R +12.0
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +12.5
- Early vote effect
- D +0.3
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Stout | Herrera | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $977K | $3.1M |
| Spent | $314K | $2.6M |
| Cash on hand | $171K | $554K |
| Outside money for | $1.0M | $1.4M |
| Google ads | $34K | $16K |
The early vote
Texas, through 2026-10-24- Ballots cast
- 3,576,004
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +8.4
- Forecast expected
- R +9.4
- Against expectation
- 1.0 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.